CtC/CH,
Like a lot of us, I am still looking into why this race fell apart and why so many fast horses ran like crap.
I have read both of your posts about how pace was the determining factor and how ironically both of you are \"upgrading\" the effort of Bellamy Road in this race, where he ran like a snake, when you were both \"down\" on the horse after the Wood, where he ran like the second coming....
I just don\'t buy pace as a huge factor here. Closing Argument, a decidedly inferior horse than Bellamy Road, on anybody\'s figures, was a little more than a 1/2 length off of Bellamy Road at the first quarter mark. He dropped a little further off at the half and 3/4 mile mark, then even with him at the mile mark. CA stayed on well, albeit getting tired, and finished a solid second. Bellamy backed up to 7th.
Of course the pace was hot, but there have been hot paces in previous derbies and the races didn\'t fall apart. The Monarchos derby had a similar pace to it and Monarchos figured well in that race, as did the 3rd place finisher Congaree.
This Derby requires some deep analysis, and even then we may not get any conclusions. But to say \"pace\" decided it, is not accurate or even to say \"it was just the result of the juicers not getting juice\", understates it a lot.
This Derby will be tough to get over, at least for me. In most years, even without cashing, there are things to learn about the derby. The War Emblem lesson was to respect figures from \"lesser tracks\" or \"less prestigious races\", The Funny Cide lesson was not to buy into the \"Empire Maker was toying with him in the Wood, he could have run much faster\" crap, etc.etc. However, I can\'t find any lesson to learn from this derby, other than not to bet more on the Derby, just because it is the Derby.
jimbo66 wrote:
> CtC/CH,
>
> Like a lot of us, I am still looking into why this race fell
> apart and why so many fast horses ran like crap.
>
> I have read both of your posts about how pace was the
> determining factor and how ironically both of you are
> \"upgrading\" the effort of Bellamy Road in this race, where he
> ran like a snake, when you were both \"down\" on the horse after
> the Wood, where he ran like the second coming....
Thought there were a few reasons to bet against Bellamania:
Bounce
Pace Scenario/Adversity (1st time new style - Inability to truly rate)
Post
Price
Also, you\'ll win far more races betting the next horse is NOT a superhorse than betting he IS.
>
> I just don\'t buy pace as a huge factor here. Closing Argument,
> a decidedly inferior horse than Bellamy Road, on anybody\'s
> figures, was a little more than a 1/2 length off of Bellamy
> Road at the first quarter mark. He dropped a little further
> off at the half and 3/4 mile mark, then even with him at the
> mile mark. CA stayed on well, albeit getting tired, and
> finished a solid second. Bellamy backed up to 7th.
C.A.\'s race was better. Whether it will be next time is the issue.
> Of course the pace was hot, but there have been hot paces in
> previous derbies and the races didn\'t fall apart. The
> Monarchos derby had a similar pace to it and Monarchos figured
> well in that race, as did the 3rd place finisher Congaree.
Monarchos was not on top/bounce projection and he laid off that hot pace. He\'s of won Saturday as well.
> This Derby requires some deep analysis, and even then we may
> not get any conclusions. But to say \"pace\" decided it, is not
> accurate or even to say \"it was just the result of the juicers
> not getting juice\", understates it a lot.
Everyone has to draw their own conclusions. Mine are the outcome was a once in a lifetime result based upon the importance of the following factors in this order:
Bounce
Bias/Path
Pace
Injury
Drug Screening
> This Derby will be tough to get over, at least for me. In most
> years, even without cashing, there are things to learn about
> the derby. The War Emblem lesson was to respect figures from
> \"lesser tracks\" or \"less prestigious races\", The Funny Cide
> lesson was not to buy into the \"Empire Maker was toying with
> him in the Wood, he could have run much faster\" crap, etc.etc.
> However, I can\'t find any lesson to learn from this derby,
> other than not to bet more on the Derby, just because it is the
> Derby.
Empire Maker lost to Funny Cide on an injury and ground loss, which was very foreseeable.
Ok Chuckles.
I can buy that. Maybe I was reading too much into the pace comments you made earlier.
I can buy the combination of the factors you named, although I don\'t know if the bias/path factor was relevant. I have to review the charts for the day.
Also, good to see you get a redboard opportunity on the 2002 Derby..........
Jimbo,
I don\'t know if you read all my posts (one to HP about Closing Argument), but I don\'t think the pace was totally responsible for the race falling apart. I think it certainly played a part though. I think several horses probably didn\'t appreciate the extra furlong too. In a race like the Derby with 20 horses, some horses with decent form also don\'t fire almost every year - maybe due to seasoning, preparation, getting overly excited due to crowds, getting outrun, ???, etc...
I think it\'s close to impossible to tell which factor contributed how much. I\'ve seen the preliminary pace figure range for the race and it was fast enough to impact several horses.
This is an example of why some people think I talk in circles.
I think most of us would agree that the pace was \"some factor\". It\'s the degree that is debateable.
I think most of us would probably agree that distance was \"some factor\" for some horses.
There was actually some controversey about some of the figures.
I don\'t know of a way to be perfectly accurate on which contributed how much. So my assessement of the race and thus some of the horses is more of a range than a number.
Post Edited (05-09-05 15:49)
You must also factor in the rediculous size of the field and the fact that this is the only race in the country where an auxilary gate is used. It is pure greed. Get rid of the auxilary gate and limit the field to 14.
Why shorten the field? What other single race offers the chance for a life changing score? Leave it as is, I\'ll take my chances.
It\'s an accident waiting to happen. Picture this:
A greedy owner forces his trainer to run a cheap speed horse. The horse has the lead going into the 1st turn and snaps off a leg. The horse and rider go down causing a chain reaction, wiping out half the field. 2 jocks suffer broken pelvis, one a broken neck, one is killed. 4 horses are euthanized. NBC backs out of deal to broadcast the race. Racing gets another black eye. Don\'t say it can\'t happen.
It could happen any day of the week, and it could happen with 12 or 14 horses in the Derby. Heck, I think Wayne Lukas is actually trying to make it happen ;) Can you believe he is considering Going Wild for the Preakness?
They\'ve been running this way for 100+ years. They shorten the field, the first Triple Crown winner we get, it is yeah, but...
How about we keep try this; have the top 14 get in based on graded earnings and the rest by the invitation of an arbitrary panel.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
jbelfior wrote:
> How about we keep try this; have the top 14 get in based on
> graded earnings and the rest by the invitation of an arbitrary
> panel.
>
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.
>
>
Ummm, no thanks...
Beyerguy,
You want a \"lifechanging score\", play the lottery.
A majority of horseplayers will take their shots at a score that might be difficult to come up with, rewarding, but at least slightly discernable.
Not a completely random result, with no logic, or method to come up with. THis year\'s Derby was pretty much that.
Yeah, I know, sounds like sour grapes and I guess it is.
But 14 top quality horses would be a nice Derby.
Beyerguy,
Take this for instance:
Came Home was my top pick to win the Derby a couple of years ago. They scratched a horse pre-race and that horse was to start from the main gate. Came Home started from post 15 (which is really post 17) and under \"normal rules\" when the aforementioned horse scratched, Came Home would have moved into the main gate and started from post 14. But noooooooooooooooooooooooooo. Churchill makes up the rules as they go along, and so Came Home remained in the 15 hole. (really, the 17 hole). Cost him at least 2 lengths. No, he wouldn\'t have won anyway (and not because of the distance), but at least this FORMER horseplayer would have gone home knowing at least he hadn\'t been cheated....hmmmmmmmmm.
It\'s all about image, people.
Post Edited (05-09-05 16:05)
Jimbo,
Just for the record, I\'ve never spent a single dollar in my life on a lottery ticket, not in my nature.
I didn\'t cash on the Derby, but I would hardly call it completely random. I know a few pretty decent handicappers that were sold on Giacomo. It wasn\'t hard to envsision a suicidal speed dual (I know that is almost taboo here, sorry), and there were only three real closers in the race, total closers, not pressers, not in between. Greater Good, Don\'t Get Mad, and Giacomo. I don\'t think too many would argue who was the best of those three.
Again, I bet Greeley\'s Galaxy, I\'m not trying to say this was easy, but totally random, I think not.
I understand your point Beyerguy and I retract \"completely random\". But it was pretty random.
Congrats to your friends who were decent handicappers and came up with Giacomo. I don\'t mean to sound sarcastic, but I would book all their future bets, if they came up with Giacomo in this race.
A couple more points.
1. You are posting on the thorograph board and Giacomo was the 19th fastest of 20 horses on T-Graph figures.
2. I don\'t agree that there were three closers. Andromeda\'s Hero, Noble Causeway and Sort it Out are all closers.
3. Many many people would argue that of Greater Good, Don\'t Ged Mad and Giacomo, Giacomo was the best. 25 million was bet in the win pool on Saturday and Don\'t Get Mad went off at 29-1, Giacomo at 50-1 and Greater Good 58-1. Sounds like the general poublic liked none of them much, but Don\'t Get Mad the most.
Beyer
>Greater Good, Don\'t Get Mad, and Giacomo. I don\'t think too many would argue who was the best of those three.<
I made the pace of the SA Derby a little slow. If correct, that complimented both Giacomo\'s and Don\'t Get Mad\'s performances in that race. I made that point before the Derby Trial.
It would have been extremely difficult for me to come up with the winner though. I thought there was a reasonable chance the race would fall apart. I just thought there were a bunch of pressers that had shown enough rateability and were much better. I thought one of them would rate nicely and close - like Bandini - Oooooops. The only horse that really shocked me given the race development was Closing Argument. I thought he was a nice horse, but I thought he wouldn\'t want 10F or the fast pace. I was definitely wrong about him. He ran very well.
The big field and extra distance are what make the Derby the Derby.
If its a 9 mark race, Closing Argument or Afleet Alex probably win it.
If you limit it to 14 I\'m not even sure
Giacomo gets it.
But the point is that it should be hard to pick and picking it does result in a nice reward.
Accidents can happen with a four horse field and if a horse went down in the Derby it could be a big problem, but so too with 14 horses. Outside post may or may not hurt depending on the horses style. Thats part of the ballet of the race.
At one point here, Giacomo seemed to be the darling of the TG board for the TC. He had legit reasons for not improving his last couple. I think 19th fast of 20 is going by tops, not what could be expected on Saturday.
As for the closers, I meant deep type closers, we can agree to disagree.
OK, I didn\'t realize every word would be taken literally. Many would argue Giacomo is the best of those three.
Don\'t hate those who hit the Derby as if it was some random shot in the dark. Plenty of sharp handicappers hit big prices every single day. I wouldn\'t book all their bets after that. Get over it, I\'m back playing Delaware and Hawthorne today, the money spends the same no matter what the name of the race is.
Class said
\"I made the pace of the SA Derby a little slow. If correct, that complimented both Giacomo\'s and Don\'t Get Mad\'s performances in that race. I made that point before the Derby Trial\"
Class,
The track was kinda dull SA derby day(for California)and Giacomo HUNG like a chandelier the last eighth. His race in the Sham was his best effort IMO and I bet him back in the San Felipe.
Figs wise, notwithstanding the hot pace,this derby defies any logical explanation to any student of the game and the drug stuff is over the top because too many runners did not perform AT ALL.Feed back from connections of Zito and Pletcher have those trainers\"dizzy\"
Two more tidbits, Johnny V \"protected\" Bandini just about all the way(toss the performance) and he did NOT like the inside part of the track all day.
miff
the inside was not good
Alex was down in there a bit too much. Can\'t blame him though...he took a lot of heat for wide rides......if he rides Alex wide that race, likely you have a different result.
Post Edited (05-09-05 17:11)
Class,
You keep posting the same thing, about different races.
This race had a fast pace so....
This race had a slow pace so....
Change your name to pace handicapper and stop trying to fit everything into your pace analysis, especially on the Thorograph board.
Pace didn\'t make Summerly\'s race in the Oaks.
Pace didn\'t make the SA Derby a \"better\" race for Giacomo. I bet Giacomo and he had NOTHING in the stretch that day. Consolidator didn\'t lope along on any easy lead that day, he was pushed hard and was in a drive on the turn. He was just better.
jimbo66 wrote:
> Pace didn\'t make the SA Derby a \"better\" race for Giacomo. I
> bet Giacomo and he had NOTHING in the stretch that day.
> Consolidator didn\'t lope along on any easy lead that day, he
> was pushed hard and was in a drive on the turn. He was just
> better.
Consolidator wasn\'t even a participant :)
I am off a race! Thanks Beyerguy.
I was referring to the San Felipe, when Giacomo had nothing in the stretch.
I gave up on him in the SA Derby, betting Wilko and watchiing Dettori give the horse a night tour of the outside paths.... Boxed Wilko with Buzzard\'s Bay and General John B....... I wouldn\'t have cared about the derby if Wilko got 2nd that day.
BeyerGuy,
Last point on the \"true closers\" of the race.
How many total combined horses did Giacomo pass in the stretch of his three California races this year?
The answer is zero.
I would expect a logical closer to pass somebody, anybody.
I\'ll never be able to prove this but I think, if Consolidator stayed sound, he\'d have won and he\'d have been at least 15-1.
While many of you were analyzing Bellamy\'s Wood ad infinitum, ad nauseam I pointed out that Consolidator\'s San Felipe was the superior race.
I was not surprised that afleet alex ran in the money...I just thought it would more likely be 1 or 2. I was not surprised that CA ran in the money but I did not think he would be in a serious race for the win. CA was respectable as a two year old with a goog foundation and a 4 top. He looked to me like a horse that would move forward and he did. Giacomo, no matter how many times I look at him, simply doesn\'t figure. I didn\'t like him visually and he looked slow on paper with no excuses. I just don\'t know how you come up with him. It made me feel better when I found out the guy who hit the super did it on a \"quick pick\".
Jimbo,
There was lot to consider: You had all the wise guy trainers using only 2 race preps for instance, you also had guys running off of 4 or 5 race foundation races in total. You had some horses running off of 5 weeks rest, and you had a bunch of people assuming that CA racing was slow(er).
I think it was safe to assume that many of us thought the pace was going to be fast early (Spanish Chestnut, Wild Lukas etc). No one thought that \"ALL\" of the Jump up Horses would collapse (Not sure that AA collapsed). Now add in the Drug Detention Scenario and you\'ve got one big confusing mess.
I guess the question I ask is did the light preparation have more of impact come Derby than we think on the Key Horses? Not to mention we now know better which horses can handle an extra furlong.
NC Tony
Here\'s my 2 cents.....after the PP draw I thought BR would be 3 or 4 wide at the turn (depending if GW was sent) or maybe eating dirt for the first time behing SC and HL. My key for the race is whether BR would go on or not. Even though he looked like a freak in the Wood, I chose not because of the 2 prep angle (along with HL). As I wrote in an earlier post (NO DERBY EXACTA), I thought Giacomo had the best chance to improve with Wilko and CA less so. So I keyed Giacomo underneath with only AA and Bandini on top. Made a little only with a win saver with Giacomo.
I\'m still hashing through the probability that both Closing Argument and Giacomo fired large tops on the same day with conduct altering Drug Testing in place. That would seem somewhat unlikely. Especially in consideration of the fact their figures would be all time fast \"non drug\" figures. My premise assumes that it was in 2001 that substances began significantly jumping horses up. In other words I am comparing their figures to Derby winning figures from 2000 and beyond. FuPig ran a 2 for instance.
This race is even harder to figure than the Wood or Bluegrass.
I think it was reasonable to predict that one of the following three, CA, Wilko and Giacomo would run a new top that would be good enough to be ITM especially if the \"super\" trainers lost their syringes. Less so with Wilko and CA because of only two preps. Have we seen enough evidence the McLaughlin is one of \"them\"? Certainly not Shirreffs nor to a less extent Dollase.
Holybull,
Congrats on liking Giacomo.
But your line about him being one of the most likely to run a new top is funny at best. Yes, he was likely to run a new top, because he was the 19th fastest out of 20 horses and the only horse in the field to still have NOT ran faster as a 3 year old, than he did as a 2 year old.
So, yes, he could run faster and was even \"likely\" to do so. I wouldn\'t have called him the favorite to come in last, Spanish Chestnut and Going Wild were those. But Giacomo, because he was so so slow, was a very very unlikely winner.
Maybe you think it is sour grapes on my part, but this horse was not \"handicappable\" to win the DErby by any normal method.
I was with 6 guys at the Meadowlands and two had the horse and cashed - no joke. But neither would tell you that they handicapped the race.
One italian guy \"wheeled the two italian horses for $1\". Bandini and Giacomo.
The other guy had $10 on Giacomo because his name was \"John\" and he was told Giacomo was italian for John.
Jimbo said
\"The other guy had $10 on Giacomo because his name was \"John\" and he was told Giacomo was italian for John\"
What?? I was told Giacomo meant \"slow garbage pail\"in Italian. I would have had him, my middle name is John.
Miff-- that\'s right up there with \"New York Bred slow rats\".
Jimbo66
Just for the record I did not \"handicap\" Giacomo to win the derby but used him underneath in all my plays except the win bet at the end. I liked his improving late pace numbers. (Brisnet gave him a small new top in the SA Derby) Only had AA and Bandini on top. The guys at Monmouth I sit with all gave Giacomo the hook. But only half of them are Italian. For TGJB: some New York rats are not so slow....
miff wrote:
> Jimbo said
>
> \"The other guy had $10 on Giacomo because his name was \"John\"
> and he was told Giacomo was italian for John\"
>
>
> What?? I was told Giacomo meant \"slow garbage pail\"in Italian.
> I would have had him, my middle name is John.
>
>Miff-- that\'s right up there with \"New >York Bred slow rats\".
>TGJB
lmao,
miff, \"Shakespeare of the Turf\"
too funny
Gee... I thought Giacomo meant \"I owned the Garbage Company\".....in Italian.
NC Tony
I believe it is Italian for Jack.
My son\'s name is John (Giovanni in Italian).
If this horse\'s name was GIOVANNI, I would have bet him to win and retired...LOL....
Good Luck,
Joe B.
This horse is haunting me. My neighbor went to see Sting in concert last night and told me that Sting was downright giddy over his son\'s namesake winning the Derby. Sting told the crowd that he put $500 on Giacomo\'s nose at 50-1, \"you do the math\" he said.
My first thought was \"only $500?\". Surely that\'s like cab fare for the guy.
Last time I remember a rock star being tied to racing was MC Hammer quite a few years back.
Jimbo,
I think one lesson to be gleaned from this year\'s Derby is trainer accumen and jockey confidence. Smith believed Giacomo capable, and John Shirreffs handled the good colt like he has handled Hollywood Story:
Aggressive placement based on talent with disconcern over frustrations, setbacks or losses; Allowing the horse to grow into itself without being forced prematurely; Appropriate \"turning of the screws\" when it would matter most.
Regarding Smitty, I interviewed him Tuesday in front of Wagner\'s in Louisville, and he laid out exactly what was going on with Giacomo. I offered the piece to B-H for whom I do stringer work, but it wasn\'t picked up and only appeared on my Derby Trail site. Needless to say, I used Giacomo...
http://sports.groups.yahoo.com/group/DerbyTrail/message/693
Seasoned Pilot Expects Top Effort From Overlooked Colt
By Steve Byk
LOUISVILLE (May 3) -- Mike Smith is excited.
The veteran jockey is excited about bringing his tack to Churchill for this year\'s spring meet. He is excited about being back among friends he hasn\'t seen regularly in years, and he is excited about yet another new challenge at this stage of his long career.
And as we wait outside Wagner\'s Pharmacy for the breakfast lamp to be lit, he\'s excited about Derby mount Giacomo and the colt\'s chances in Saturday\'s 131st Run for the Roses.
Giacomo, a late arrival to the Churchill backstretch this week, is the proverbial \"forgotten horse\" in Derby longshot discussions around the Downs so far. If this is a case of \"out of sight, out of mind\", it may turn out to be fortuitous for those who prefer their Derby plays to be the kind they can laud over fellow punters for years.
Giacomo, who as the lone roan left in the field will be the choice of those that \"bet the grey horse\", has arguably the most intriguing record of any horse in this year\'s Derby. Though 7/1-2-2, with the
October \'04 maidenbreaker being the sole tally, the son of Holy Bull has gamely challenged the West Coast\'s best from his third career start when he ran into juvy buzzsaw Texcess in a N1X ALW at Hollywood.
After that, trainer John Shirreff\'s colt was second to Declan\'s Moon in the HOL Futurity (Gr. I); third to Going Wild and Papi Chullo in the Sham; second to Consolidator in that one\'s big San Felipe (Gr. II) and fourth by two in the Santa Anita Derby (Gr. I) to Buzzards Bay, General John B and Wilko. But Smith thinks no one has seen Giacomo\'s \"A\" race.
\"We haven\'t seen his best yet. John (Shirreffs) has been taking baby steps with him all spring,\" says Smith. \"He only really started turning the screws on him after the (Santa Anita) Derby.\"
Based on the colt\'s sharp work this week, and his consistent record of competitive performances, Smith thinks Giacomo merits plenty of attention at the windows in the Derby. \"I loved the way he worked Monday\", said Smith. \"He galloped out strong, which he always does. He made a nice run at Santa Anita (in the Derby), but he got out a bit slow, and I was on the wrong part of the track (inside) for too long. He never got leg-weakened for as long as we went on past the wire though.\"
Smith has been Giacomo\'s rider from the moment Shirreffs got the colt, and it seems the jockey who piloted Holy Bull has frequently gotten first call on the great runners\' progeny. Smith: \"This is the first one that REALLY reminds me of \'Bull. He looks like him.. He acts like him.. He feels like him..\"
And though Giacomo has yet to get his photograph taken as often as his sire, Smith felt strongly about the $226,000 winner from early on. \"When I got on him the first time, I told John this was going to be my \'05 Derby horse\", Smith said. \"I have said that only one other time, and the horse I said it about won the Derby. But not with me aboard.\" Smith was refering to Unbridled, whom he rode as a juvenile. \"You can ask Carl Nafzger how that ended up happening,\" smiled the amiable rider.
Smith wouldn\'t speculate on Holy Bull\'s failed 1994 Derby try as part of the conversation, but agreed that a special performance by Giacomo could be retribution of the sweetest kind. \"Wouldn\'t that be great?\" said Smith. \"This colt has been so close every time. Saturday could be his turn.\"
What does Smith think it will take for Giacomo to be \"special\" in his eighth career start? \"He just has to take to the track\", thinks Smith. \"Everything else should be in place.\"
\"I\'ll tell you this,\" ended Smith before joining his agent for coffee, \"I\'m excited for Saturday.\"