Not that anyone cares but me, but here\'s what the field in pool two at 6-1 ended up yeilding:
Bellamy Road
And. Hero
Flower Alley
Greeley\'s Galaxy
Sort It Out
Buzzards Bay
Coin Silver
Closing Argument
And by the way, the heck with the Derby. There is another race on that card which looks like one of the all-time good shots-- but only if you like betting against short priced, spotting weight, short rest off a top cripples. Yikes.
No more hints until I do the analysis. Talk amongst yourselves.
I care.
Madcap Escapade?
Don\'t know what to think of the Argentinian shipper. Otherwise Bending Strings and Souris seem to be the most logical upsetters.
Holybull,
Thats my guess too, but I like Souris.
Madcap is giving 8 pds, regress of the big mud number. Souris can run the same number here as ME and gets 8 pds.
Looks like the race JB was talking about, anybody else have another horse they like besides the 2 mentioned?? Looks like Molto Vita has a shot too.
Post Edited (05-05-05 21:10)
woodford reserve looks good too. very good.
Rich, very good? I like Sweet Return and A to the Z at a price. Tell me if I\'m on the same page as you.
Interesting choice, if that is it. Madcap Escapade a \"cripple\". Not sure I would use that noun.
In a lower profile race on the card, I thought Wildcat Shoes was very vulnerable as the favorite. Ran a negative 3.25 last race, which was a new top by over 4 points. That race was at Keenland 17 days ago. In the past, the horse reacted every time he reached a new top, bouncing from a 1 to 6 at the end of his two year old year, got back to the \"1\" level twice during his three year old year, once bouncing 8 points, once bouncing 3.5 points. The negative 3.25 came out of nowhere.
The problem in the race is finding the right horse to use against him. Engineered and Premier Performer both have a shot in my mind, with the latter being a little faster.
i\'m looking forward to the crown royal more than any race over the next two days. probably the angle i\'ve made the most money on over the years goes in that race.
race 1 i would imagine .... who\'s the winner?
Michael,
Could be race 1, but the horse is 8 points faster than the competition. I know he runs back on 2 weeks rest after running a negative 5, but I am not sure I would consider betting against a horse who is 8 points faster, \"one of the all time good shots\".
I think the Pletcher/Velasquez has a shot to move up in the race and if the \"super horse\" collapses, he might beat him. Pletcher is 5-2, the \"negative 5\" horse is 2-1. Not sure that is a good bet.
The maiden is the second fastest horse of all time, after all, with his negative 5. Unless Ghostzapper is in the race, he probably can\'t lose.
talk to jerry, he\'s the one betting against him. i just started looking at the sat card.
..............
any ideas tomorrow jim? i came up with a lot of favorites.
Post Edited (05-05-05 21:42)
Michael,
My sarcasm wasn\'t directed at you thinking that Jerry was betting against the horse in the first race. I am struggling with Jerry\'s negative 5 for the horse. It makes that race unbettable for me, which is unfortunate, since I think Wildcat Shoes will be a bad favorite in the 2nd race and Daily Doubles are amongst my favorite bets.
I didn\'t handicap tomorrow. Got a bad day ahead at work and really want to focus on Saturday.
Just started handicapping Saturday\'s card and so far, Sir Shackleton at anywhere near the 5-1 ML odds, is my favorite play. Also like A to the Z, if PVal can work out a trip.
Want to be alive on Pick-4\'s into the Derby to make betting it easier. Trying to decide whether to throw out Madcap Escapade or single her.....
I think Velasquez on Warning zone has a good shot in the other turf race that is part of the pick 4.
the audacity of the DOL - putting out an employment report on oaks day........ wildcat shoes - another big jumper carrying top weight on short rest. hit the double saturday and you are doing something good.
Race 6
Confirmed
Race 8
Tempus Fugit
box w/Shadow Cast (cross entered May 7)
Race 9
Rush Bay
Race 10
Have to take a swing with
Memorette
Not favorites.
Good luck.
HP
Jerry\'s got to be talking about Madcap. And the upsetter is Josh\'s Madelyn at 20-1 ML.
I agree it\'s either MAdcap or Northern Stag (or perhaps both). Madcap Lost last year at CD but it was in the mud and it was 9F and not 7f.Madcap did regress 4 points off last years neg top, if that occurs it brings into play Molto Vita and Josh\'s as potential winers.
As for Race 1, If that one regresses as his top occured on an off track when it freaked, Then perhaps Yes Yes Yes (a 3yo vs Older), might make me back the money I burned on him last time out. Although Im more convinced it\'s the former not that later that Jerry\'s reffering to.
NC Tony
It would be nice to eliminate Madcap from the P4 at 1/2 or 3/5, but who can run with her early?
Molto Vita, who likes CD but didn\'t come close to matching ME early at Kee in her last?
Heavenly Humor, who comes from Golden Gate and Bay Meadows and has never run in a graded stake?
I see Bailey making very little effort to discourage ME early, ME cutting out a wicked half mile on what is sure to be a brick road like surface. At the 1/8th pole, the weight will start to take its toll, but the others may be too far back to take advantage.
I may be wrong, but I think Azeri lost this race under top weight last year, leading both Lukas and Carl Nafzger(who won the race)to call for the abolition of graded races run under handicap conditions.
Post Edited (05-06-05 04:42)
I like A to the Z, and America Alive, nice price and lines on both, Muustanfar scares me, I may use him too. I am leaning more heavily to AA, I like the fact that he moved a little thru his 3yr top. He\'s 5+ weeks of that small breakthru and 12-1. Anytime you have horses that are as good as the favs, it\'s very good. Good Luck.
Who is the mystery horse/Race??