Let\'s reserve this thread for actual Derby picks. There are plenty of other threads to discuss the contenders. No flames please. This will give everyone a chance to have their picks in writing BEFORE the race.
Anway, here\'s mine:
Afleet Alex to win. Large.
Tri AA w/ SK/HF w/ all
Tri SK/HF w/ AA w/ all
Anyone else?
HIGH FLY, hopefully at double digit odds, emerges with the lead on the turn and holds off AA, Noble Causeway and Wilko.
1 MILLION GUARANTEED DERBY PICK 4: A bucket of Bailey: ALL in the 7th, MADCAP in the 8th, SENOR SWINGER in the 9th, and HF.
KY OAKS: MEMORETTE shakes up the chalk players with her first score against open company.
Richie, best of luck
Tri;
HF
BR(x2),AA,GG,HL
BR,AA,GG,HL,SK,NC,W
BR(x4),AA,GG,HL
HF
BR,AA,GG,HL,SK,NC,W
BR(x4),AA,GG,HL
BR,AA,GG,HL
HF
Super;
BR
HF
AA,GG,HL,SK,NC,W
AA,GG,HL,SK,NC,W
BR
AA,GG,HL,SK,NC,W
HF
AA,GG,HL,SK,NC,W
Ex;
HF
BR(x5),AA(x3),GG,HL,SK,NC,W
BR(x10),AA(x3),GG,HL,SK,NC,W
HF
Win;
HF(x40) at > 10-1
HL(x10) at > 20-1
GG(x5) at > 20-1
My opinion is similar to Holybull\'s. I favor the horses with the solid 2yo foundation over the more lightly raced, slightly faster jump up horses.
1)Afleet Alex: Fast and solid 2yo form
2)Sun King: 1 turn mile pretty good, another with solid 2 yo form. Tampa number bugs me but he\'ll be a price.
3)Bellamy Road: Can\'t pick the favorite on top, but good 2 yo form and obviously fast.
AA to win
Ex Box: AA/SK,HF
Tri: AA/SK,HF,Wilco/All
....BR/AA,HF,Wilco/AA,SK,Wilko (saver)
....SK/AA,HF,Wilko,BR/AA,HF,Wilko,BR
SPR: AA/SK,HF,BR/SK,HF,BR,W/SK,HF,BR,W
i\'ll take the bong brothers in a self-created entry:
high limit
high fly
i imagine i\'ll be 6-8 deep on various pick fours, but the biggest tickets will feature the above two.
My picks:
1. Greeley\'s Galaxy
2. Giacomo
3. Don\'t Get Mad
4. Sort It Out
xichibanx
I like
Afleet Alex - looks like the best horse in the race to me.
Don\'t Get Mad - some say he\'s a one-turn horse. Could be but outside of the SA Derby he really hasn\'t done anything wrong. Nobody was going to beat Consolidator the day of the San Felipe. Also, you\'ve got horses for courses working here, never a bad thing.
Greeley\'s Galaxy - short on experience and may not be good enough but there could also be upside potential here. Also, not much is being made of the fact that he\'s supplemental. Never been one before. You don\'t toss $200,000 in the pot unless you think the horse can cover it.
High Limit - somewhat. need a fourth horse and he\'s probably it. As someone else said, that La. Derby was pretty good coming off a six month layoff. Yes, he beat nothing but that could be said of any or all of them. Too many prep races, not enough talented horses to go around.
I don\'t like (and their all getting bet which is what I like best about the race)
Sun King - okay, Zito\'s got a handful of horses and he liked this one best. But what if he\'s wrong. I can\'t see anything else to recommend him. Seems to be this years wiseguy horse. They never win,seldom run well.
Wilko - people seem to think his feet are okay,citing his works as evidence. Believe me, nobody pays more attention to works than I do and I think his works, particularly for a Cal. horse, are ordinary.
Bandini - nice horse but not IMO up to this.
High Fly - oh my, if this horse wins I\'ll have to eat crow forever. I don\'t think he\'s good enough and I sure don\'t think he\'s going to like that last furlong. I think a lot of his support is really for Bailey. Welll, as Pat Day said, you can\'t make the horse run any faster than he can run.
I suppose you could make some kind of case for every horse but Spanish Chestnut. If he wins it\'s time to go to the bridge.
That leaves Bellamy Road. I don\'t know what to do with him but, since I think he\'ll be overbet, I\'ll probably toss him.
noble causeway is the top pick. i took him at 17-1 in pool 2 because i though zito was bringing him along in a perfect way. i like the pattern, i like the breeding to get 10f, i like the post, and i like the jock.
HF - i took him at 32-1 right after his disastrous trip in the HollyBull stks. bred to get 10f, and should get a nice trip with bailey. a touch slow, so a few of the faster ones would have to not fire, but that could happen.
BR - could be a very good one, value the problem. can\'t key at 3-1 off the race over that aqu strip.
bandini - probably going backwards. the pletcher/jr team is the best though, and i am using just because of that.
AA - a great horse. before the ark derby i did not think he would be a great 10f though. now i am not so sure. confused - a use underneath at low odds.
SK - i loved him in the blue grass, and he got in trouble early and didn\'t fire late. i still like this horse, not sure about the distance though. a use underneath.
wilko - i was originally very negative on him, but the SA derby wasn\'t that bad. still, just a use underneath for me at best.
AH - picks up small pieces?
..............
NC on top. small saver with BR in case he explodes again. BR and HF the best underneath. bandini next, followed by AA, SK, wilk, and AH
good luck everybody!!
Post Edited (05-06-05 21:28)
Assuming nothing happens to the track overnight, the horses with the best late kick should have the edge. I\'m live with & will be keying on AA, HL & SK. With the exception of AA, the double prices have me thinking that it might not make sense to divert too much more into one race on what looks like a very good betting card. Surprised to see that the double with Wilko is actually lower than with HL & SK. I thought HL would be this yr\'s wiseguy horse, but unless all that action came from Euros & left coasters, perhaps it\'s Wilko.
Best of luck.
I\'ve gone back and forth many times on this but here goes:
Bandini is my Key Horse along with Greely\'s Galaxy. ( I can\'t let the 25-1 odds go and his last was good). Since we are breaking all the \"RULES\" this year with days, number of preps etc.
I\'m playing Bandini Win with a $10 Saver on Greely\'s.
In exacta\'s Im playing Bandini with Greely\'s, Bandini with Wilko, Bandini with Sun King, Bandini with Noble Causeway. And if im winning I\'ll gover the same with Greely\'s Galaxy. (depending on what its\'s paying and if I\'m winning I might cover a Bellamy/Bandini exacta).
Not sure about tri\'s but in Super\'s Im going with a $1 3x4x4x6 for $54 looking for
bandini,greely\'s,wilko
Bandini,greely\'s,wilko,noble
Bandini,greely\'s,wilko,noble
Bandini,greely\'s,wilko,noble,sunking,andromeda\'s hero.
Im afraid of Coin silver and Buzard\'s Bay sneaking in the 4th slot.
If It rains, Coin Silver moves up a lot.
I think the real value will be in the all Stakes Pick 4. I\'ve been working on it and will post later.
NC Tony
Mall--
What\'s the double with HL???
Thanks and good luck,
Joe B
$253 with HL vs $201 for Wilko, per jimbo 66\'s post below.
My selections are as follows:
Wilko -- As I have noted on this Board, I feel that Wilko will handle the distance and is ready for a breakout race.
Bandini -- This horse has, in my opinion, been unjustly criticized for his slow finishing time in the Blue Grass (13 2/5). As Pletcher and others have observed, however, there were few middle distance races at Kee. with fast closing times this season. Bandini was able to finish his two Fla. races well (12 3/5 and 12 4/5). Likewise, other starters in the Blue Grass finished well in their previous starts. High Limit finished the La. Derby in good order (30 4/5) and Closing Argument closed in a respectable time in his previous start (13 1/5). Hence, I must discount the criticism of Bandini on this count. Bandini is an improving colt who has a solid foundation (i.e., three 1 1/8 races this Spring). He also has the right breeding, connections and running style.
Bellamy Road -- Until recently, I was going to eliminate Bellamy Road for a number of the reasons which have already been discussed on this Board. The chief problem with this horse is, of course, the fact that he has not proven that he can rate. While we can all throw out a lot of verbiage in discussing this issue, one picture is worth a thousand words. Just looking at this physical specimen on the track requires his inclusion in my selections.
Don\'t Get Mad -- This colt has a real shot at hitting the board at a square price. He loves the track (3 for 3 lifetime) and he has a closing style that may be quite helpful if there is a pace collapse scenario. The fact that he is on short rest is of no moment. His \"effort\" in the SA Derby was not exhausting. Given that poor performance, he would have had to work very hard last week if he wanted to race in the Derby. His Derby Trial was his workout. After dismounting, jockey Stevens advised Ron Ellis that \"there was still gas in the tank.\"
While recognizing his obvious talent, I have elected to exclude Afleet Alex from my top selections (he will still be used in the exotics). Simply stated, I don\'t trust his connections in this spot.
Post Edited (05-06-05 22:28)
My Derby record lacking, I will probably forego a straight win bet and opt for the Pick 4\'s where I can cover the Derby with 5-8 choices.
For the sake of TGraph readers, I will release my win pick so everyone can toss him.
My top pick is GG.
Never run a bad one. Improved each and every time. A pair up may suffice. Kent is familiar with the CD winners circle. The owners ponied up $200G. I guess I could go for a bit less.
My sentimental pick is AA.
The lemonade stand is a heartwarming story ---just a great thing.
TR is an old Penn National guy.
A nice story and a fast horse.
Those 2 are definites on my Pick 4\'s. Will add High Fly ( I like the line) NC, BR (Yanks have lost 4 in a row, Torre 5 and Herr George....?), SK and Bandini in no particular order.
Good luck to all.
Bellamy Road/Afleet Alex box Bandini/High Limit/Greeley\'s Galaxy/Sun King......It\'ll take a \"0\" to hit the board. The saver bet might just be the top two, straight in the exacta.
Tough race for the exotics because per usual theres a number of horses that could hit the lower spots. Be advised this analyis is not entirely upon TGraph. When its a TGraph play per my reckoning I\'ll mark it such (TG):
1. Sort it Out - Hes cycling back at the right time. The question that has to be asked is \"Was this horse well meant last\". Purportedly he wasn\'t a go for the race until the last workout. So the suspicion is that he was considered on form for the Lexington and came up short. The trainer says hes come alive and that last workout looks great, though this horse has always been a good worker. This guy is a million plus War Emblem Type purchase, without the War Emblem speed figures. So why is he here? Bob Baffert hasnt\' been as hot as the Supertrainers the last two years, but who doubts that in another 20 years hes gonna have all the records? He\'s the best there ever was and the best that there ever will be and he knows how to buy a horse and he bought this one. I don\'t know what he saw for sure, but this guy is cycling. Definite 4th place inclusion. Probable 3rd place inclusion. If Baffert gets this guy to finish higher would it be a shock? Perilous.
Andromena\'s Hero -The veritable Clunker. Watch the Ark again and see how everyone outpaces him on the turn for home. He just keeps on clunking and clunking and clunking. Unlikely he catches the same dream trip, but it appears he\'ll rail park early. That last eighth on a speed duel is gonna make this horse or break him. He will be running late the question is the track and how much ground he has to make up. 4th and 3rd place best probability.
Sun King - One race wonder horse. Dream trip finisher in the BC Juvy. What do you do? I\'m leaning toward 3rd and 4th. Small straight perfecta for 2nd. Beat Survivalist by 6. Scrappy T just handled same by 5. Though Scrappy is a game and honest horse when right. Still it was Survivalist and it sheds no laurels on him. Beat Monarch Lane by 8.5 at one turn. Greeleys beat him 9.5 at two. Advantage Greeleys. Could save ground and will have to.
To be continued....
Bellamy Road ran the fastest race last time out. It was a solid race both pace and final time wise. However, it wasn\'t a very high quality field. BR also got loose on the lead on a track that certainly wasn\'t hostile to speed. Today he will have to cope with having quality speed inside of him and an extra furlong. I don\'t expect him to duplicate his recent figure. Depending on how severe the trip is and how he copes with pressure/rating tactics he could easily get beat or even finish well off the board despite the superhorse type numbers that most figure men are giving him.
IMO, the figure for the Blue Grass is the key to handicapping this race. I think the pace of the BG was fast enough to impact several horses. I also totally agree with JB that it doesn\'t make sense that all the horses that finished well behind Bandini ran as poorly/slowly as the Beyer figures suggest. They were a group of lightly raced, high quality, consistent and improving 3YOs. No matter how you get there (numerically or subjectively/using pace or not), I think Bandini\'s BG was probably a high quality peformance. Todd Pletcher is on a roll. I think he will get another big race out of Bandini and I think this horse can get a decent trip from the outside if he tucks in behind the speeds.
High Fly\'s Florida Derby was better than it looks. He raced close to a fast pace and finished well. I think he\'s better than most people are giving him credit for. I also think the Florida 3YOs have been underrated all spring. Without the horror trip he had in the Holy Bull, he\'d be undefeated. I\'ve been slightly skeptical about his ability to run as well at 10F as he has at 9F, but there really isn\'t that much evidence against him getting it.
Afleet Alex has a terrific overall record. IMO, other than the Rebel where he was sick, he should have won every race he\'s run in. He\'s another one like High Fly. He has never really looked like a 10F horse to me, but there really isn\'t a ton of evidence against him either. Maybe I\'m wrong, but I\'m discounting his chances a little based on that despite his recent fast and impressive win against \"2nd string\" horses.
Greely\'s Galaxy ran a very fast race last time out. It may have even been better than it looks because he was prompting a pretty quick pace. Unfortunately he has only that one huge figure. He\'s also only had a total of 4 starts and earned that fast figure against the \"3rd string\" 3YOs. I\'m less sure of what to expect of him than some of the others who have been building to their bigger races in a more predictable fashion against higher quality stock. The main thing he has going for him is that he\'s probably going to be overlooked despite a decent chance of getting the job done.
Sun King, Wilko, Noble Causway, Giacomo, Greater Good, Coin Silver and other long shot closers are all very live to get a piece of the triple or superfecta if the pace is fast enough to take out a few of the speeds and/or a couple of others don\'t want 10F. I\'m more skeptical of the chances of several talented horses like High Limit and Closing Argument because of the 10F and the likely pace. The rest will have to improve further.
Preliminary Odds Line Pending Track Conditions, Biases, and Morning Mint Juleps.
Bellamy Road 4-1
Bandini 5-1
High Fly 7-1
Afleet Alex 8-1
Greely\'s Galaxy 10-1
Expecting a hot pace.Not betting against Pletcher /Tabor.Bandini is tractable and will go wherever Jr wants him to.
Bandini on top of these six in tris:
Noble Causeway
Coin Silver
Flower Alley
High Fly
Alex
Bellamy
Supers
Bandini over
NC,Alex Bellamy
NC,Alex,Bellamy,Coin,Flower,High Fly
Same six in the 4th slot
Probably will be irrelevant, but to innoculate myself against future redboarding accusations, here is what I see myself using
Primary horses -- Sun King and High Fly
Secondary horses -- High Limit and Greeley\'s Galaxy
Will also be spreading deep in one of the holes in my Tris and Supers. In these spreads, will be covering with a lot of the obvious horses (this means everything 15-1 and under on the ML), the only horse in the spreads that is not so obvious is Wilko.
Depending on how much I end up betting overall on the race, one layer may just have an \"all\" in the spread hole so I do not look like an idiot when they run Sun King, High Limit, Greeley\'s Galaxy, and {you name the tomato can here}. Dime supers would be nice for this sort of thing.
Speaking of candidates for the \"tomato can\" spot, I note that Baffert and Lukas are going to be a TON longer this year than they were in 2002 when lots of people (not TGJB, though) were kicking themselves for missing a thousand dollar exacta by not \"just\" hooking up the two \"Derby Specialists.\" Curious what the Baffert-Lukas exacta will come back this year (but I assure you I will not have a single ticket that has both Sort It Out and Going Wild on it).
One note -- These picks are not simply the result of who I project to run the best figures (although i like the patterns very much on some of my picks). I have tried to factor in ground loss and possible (but not certain) pace exertions. I think that Bellamy Road, Bandini, and Afleet Alex may all run superior figures, but I view them as facing greater challenges pace and trip wise than the horses I am using.
I think Bandini and Greely\'s Galaxy have identical lines. They both freaked in thier last and their prior races were not good enough to hit the board in the Derby. I think they both bounce 4 points today.
Afleet Alex, if were trained by someone else and ridden by a top jock would be my top pick to win. There are only 2 dual qualifiers (dosage - experimental hcp) in the race this year and AA will be the favorite. I\'ll use him as a saver.
My pick is Sun King. Never out of the superfecta, has the 5th fastest back figure, appears to be circling back to it and is 16-1. And while I am a believer in the dual qualifier system, High Limit at 22-1 is too good to pass up.
Bellamy Road
Bandini
Afleet Alex
Noble Causeway
well here goes
I think that my play will be Sun King to win. Zito was so high on him and he just never got going in the Blue Grass. I like his chance to bounce back. His odds are going to be good.
I am throwing out Bandini based on his huge move forward. Even though, i love his 10F breeding and the pace of the race plays right into his style. I can hear myself whining about this already.
I cannot believe how high the odds have drifted on both Greeley\'s Galaxy and High Limit. High Limit is only a slight move forward away from being right there.
I will play a tri with:
Sun King, Afleet Alex, Bellamy Road with
SK, AA, BR, High Limit, Greely\'s Galaxy with
SK< AA, BR, HL, GG, High Fly
Bandini, top selection.
Noble Causeway second best.
Using longshots in the super like Closing ARgument, Don\'t Get Mad, Coin Silver, Andromeda\'s Hero and maybe Wilko.
Multirace tickets to include top two + Sun King.
Good luck
Tough race for the exotics because per usual theres a number of horses that could hit the lower spots. Be advised this analyis is not entirely upon TGraph. When its a TGraph play per my reckoning I\'ll mark it such (TG):
1. Sort it Out - Hes cycling back at the right time. The question that has to be asked is \"Was this horse well meant last\". Purportedly he wasn\'t a go for the race until the last workout. So the suspicion is that he was considered on form for the Lexington and came up short. The trainer says hes come alive and that last workout looks great, though this horse has always been a good worker. This guy is a million plus War Emblem Type purchase, without the War Emblem speed figures. So why is he here? Bob Baffert hasnt\' been as hot as the Supertrainers the last two years, but who doubts that in another 20 years hes gonna have all the records? He\'s the best there ever was and the best that there ever will be and he knows how to buy a horse and he bought this one. I don\'t know what he saw for sure, but this guy is cycling. Definite 4th place inclusion. Probable 3rd place inclusion. If Baffert gets this guy to finish higher would it be a shock? Perilous.
2. Andromena\'s Hero -The veritable Clunker. Watch the Ark again and see how everyone outpaces him on the turn for home. He just keeps on clunking and clunking and clunking. Unlikely he catches the same dream trip, but it appears he\'ll rail park early. That last eighth on a speed duel is gonna make this horse or break him. He will be running late the question is the track and how much ground he has to make up. 4th and 3rd place best probability.
3. Sun King - One race wonder horse. Dream trip finisher in the BC Juvy. What do you do? I\'m leaning toward 3rd and 4th. Small straight perfecta for 2nd. Beat Survivalist by 6. Scrappy T just handled same by 5. Though Scrappy is a game and honest horse when right. Still it was Survivalist and it sheds no laurels on him. Beat Monarch Lane by 8.5 at one turn. Greeleys beat him 9.5 at two. Advantage Greeleys. Could save ground and will have to.
4. Noble Causeway - How much ground was he really making up on High Fly last? His pedigree is nice for 10 marks, but maybe not as much a sure thing as everyone says. Don\'t know how close this one will be in the last furlong, but suspect Andromeda will be moving better.
5. Coin Silver - Well, does this guy remind you of Anyone? Very scary horse. Hot at the right time. All he beat is Sort it Out right?
6. High Limit - probably a good front end type. Bluegrass was much better than it appears. Implied earlier he would not hit the board. Am much less certain of that now. Winning will be very difficult. Will use in 3rd and 4th.
7. Flower Alley - game Distorted Humor, Blinkers will help. Can\'t see him winning, but will never give up. Suspect the 10 marks is a little too much.
8. Greater Good - Left his race in the Paddock last. Has not worked very impressively at Churchill, but has run well enough there before to excuse that. Last two races are an enigma. This guy has to tuck in and rate. Rebel he lead early, Ark he rushed up and further compromised himself. Somethings gotten into his head at the wrong time. Big crowd, big unknowns. Low figures. Light pedigree.
9. Greeley\'s Galaxy (TG)- One of the Four Horses of the Apocalypse. And probably the best price of the four. What is not to like about that last race? Other than you have to suspect Stute is not juicing him. Probably has speed to stay out of the big trouble. Works at Churchill are ambiguous. Hes apparently shut down quickly after them and that can be interpreted negatively. However note the first work at Churchill. Anyone suspect the workout comparisons are folly with this horse? His connections didn\'t think enough of him to nominate him it appears. Kent knows the horse and track. Omit at your peril. He\'ll be as high as 2nd on all my tickets.
10. Giacomo - Is working better than he ever has.
11. High Fly - Excuse and excused in his first 2 turn race. Met Bandini and was fortunate to win. Florida Derby ran even better and Bailey throttled him down late. Like his pedigree, suspect its not ideal however for 10 marks. Will get first run at them.
12. Afleet Alex (TG) - The 2nd of the Four Horses of the Apocalypse. Barring trouble perfect pace entry. Jock has found trouble for him. Any semblance of a quality ride and this one jumps up even further. Danger is bounce and jock moves too soon and takes him wide doing it. Have to figure they\'ve sat him down with race films.
13. Spanish Chestnut - Ran into the Keeneland rail bias and caved late. Suspect he\'ll be tougher to pass this time, but pass them they probably will about the 7 furlong mark.
14. Wilko (TG) - the wise guy horse. Do think he\'s sitting on a good one. Has shown good late energy in his better races. Good foundation. Should have won last and wasn\'t 100% per reports. Would not be a complete surprise. Will not be on top for me.
15. Killer Bandini (TG) - Best horse Pletcher has brought to Derby. Last two races were outstanding. Who in their right mind doesnt consider this one a serious threat. Upgraded.
16. Bellamania (TG) - Still think its freak or frustration for this guy.
17. Don\'t get Mad - is it lasix and location that has set him back or is it better company and two turns? Leaning against him.
18. Closing Argument - Don\'t like the post, don\'t like the last race, don\'t like the distance.
19. Going Wild - Its Lukas and he\'s cycling, but this is not how Lukas brings Derby winners to the race. Pace factor only in my estimation.
20. Buzzards Bay - Risk to omit Mullins. A bit slow going in, but the post hurt him.
Likely winners:
Afleet Alex
Bellamania
Bandini
Greeley\'s Galaxy
Wilko
The Apocalypse horses! Imagine that.
I will use Sun King and Wilko as my Key..and flower alley..a small key
Goodluck !
Thought I was the only person left who hadn\'t given up on Greater Good until seeing the DRF handicapper selections. What\'s up with that?
Pace will be hot and half the field should be just off of it. I look for the race to fall apart on the front end with the closers cruising past the weary nearing the wire.
Greater Good
Sun King
Noble Causeway
Using GG and SK in multirace bets and boxing the above in exacta/tri bets. Wilko to complete the super.
Wishing all riders and their steeds a safe journey.
Come on CtC, you aren\'t going to give us the three faves + two other mildly bet horses then proclaim to nab the winner, are you?
1. Bellamy Road
2. Greeley\'s Galaxy
3. High Fly
Thos are my picks, in order, and not just alphabetical order.
Who said my picks were in alphabetical order. I\'m about to toss Bellamania however and annoit High Limit the second choice.
WIN bet on BR
Exacta Box on NC/HL/GG/AA in case BR and BA do blow up from this pattern
yes an insurance bet...they said no flaming here:)
Sun King to win.
Exacta box Sun King; Noble Causeway; High Limit; Bellamy Road
Bellamy back over the top.
Good Luck,
Mark
Hi Fly...all...Noble Causeway trifect
Hi Fly...Noble...all trifecta
good luck all...
I didn\'t say your picks were in ABC order, they aren\'t, mine are. I was just saying its a coincedence, and those are the actual preference of my selections.
Lots of references on this board to GG. In case you didn\'t notice, there are two GG\'s in the race.
A few extra keystrokes won\'t hurt anyone.
Sun King to win.
Key Sun King in exotics with Noble, the two High\'s, Wilko and the Buzzard to fill the other spots. May add some longshots in the 4th spot in the super. Playing Bellamy & Bandini to not hit the board. Will use Alex in the 4 hole.
Great day to all.
Frank
High Limit will DEFINITELY get a ground saving trip from the inside post [unless Ramon is a complete dope], is fast enough [1\'s in his resume] and the price is right, currently 22-1.
Good luck.
Dammit! I just spent 20 minutes typing my first-ever post on this board and hit the \"back\" button only to lose it. I love this board. Been a reader for five years. Lots of damaged birds and degenerates in here. I belong here!!!!!!!!!
My $20 Oaks Derby Double Looks Like this:
Summerly *
In the Gold
Runway Model
to:
Sun Burn
Nimble Causeway
Agonizing Alex
Bellamy Ho
$100 across on:
Nimble and Alex
My $5 Exacats are this:
Sun Burn
Nimble Causeway
Agonizing Alex
Bellamy Ho
to:
Sun Burn
Nimble Causeway
High Limitations
Agonizing Alex
Bandaid
Wilber & Co
Bellamy Ho
My $2 trifectas are this:
top four
to:
six exacta selections above
to:
six exacta horses above plus Giacomo and Buzzard Breath added to the third slot.
Super - didn\'t bother
3 $1 Pick Fours starting in the 7th go like this:
7th:
Miss Terrible
Warning Zone
8th:
Bending Strings (love her here)
Madcap
9th:
Meteor Storm
Sweet Return (to the window)
Senor Swinger
A to Z (win play on him)
10th
My top four
I had a decent day yesterday. I had rolling pick three\'s starting in the 4th. My only loss in the pick 3 chain was Rey de Cafe. Tough beat man. I had Guillame Tell, Rush Bay and Chatahoochie in that one. Lost about $3,000 grand by two inches...
That\'s all I got. Back to ESPN undercard
Thanks for letting me in!
(this post only took 16 mins)
Going 6 deep in the Derby for the $1M Pick-4...In addition, will play a box exacta/trifecta using all 6. Also, use Bellamy Road on top of the 6 below in the trifecta and exacta as a backup.
Noble Causeway
High Limit
Greeley\'s Galaxy
Giacomo
High Fly
Bellamy Road
LOve to you Uncle Buck!
Keying Closing Argument in 3rd &4th hole w/h. limit..h. fly...b.road...a/alex
Exacta... c. arg. under 12 nags
Suicide hot line...life saver token...c.arg. to win!!! yeah right!
PARTYpokerON!
Bet $60.00 WP on Sun King and High Limit
Boxed HL, SK, BR, AA HF in tri and super.($1)
Keyed HL and SK in third position with AA,BR, bandini, HF, HL, SK, Greely\'s. ($1)
$5 exacta AA and BR over HL and SK.
High Limit moves way up on surface bias....IF SC decides to take Bellamania Wide....he may be your winner.
High Fly moves up on bias too in my estimation.
Sun King still doesnt make any sense to me.
Post Edited (05-07-05 14:22)
Go with the flow or go for the kill !
The Flow -
$70 Exactas
Bellamy Road over
Afleet Alex
Bandini
High Fly
Noble Causeway
The Kill -
$1.00 Tri Box
Sun King
High Limit
Greeley\'s Galaxy
Giacomo
Wilko
Don\'t Get Mad
Double your money or buy a new car !
Best of luck to all.
CtC.. You went from High Limit being a 3rd or 4th at best, to your 2nd favorite horse to win the race?
Is this a joke?
He seems very logical to be in the exotics. If he gets loose on the lead, katy bar the door.