Both Pletcher and Frankel have now suggested that the \"big figure\" horses in the Derby may be ready to regress. These opinions are consistent with the views expressed by many of you. As I have already stated on this site, it would be foolish to take short odds in a 20 horse field on any horse who has a 50/50 chance of going in the wrong direction.
I prefer to back horses who are ready for a move forward. To my mind, there is one horse who has the most chance of taking a forward move --- Wilco.
As Beyer has noted, Wilco, by virtue of his Breeders Cup win, is the only horse that has proven his class to win at this level. As we all know by now, his 3 year old campaign has been compromised by quarter cracks. By his trainer\'s admission, Wilco was a short horse in the San Felipe. On that speed favoring and inside biased track, he broke slowly from an outside post. He then proceeded to go 4-5 wide on both turns against the runaway winner who was aided by the track surface and bias. He returned to try the Santa Anita Derby. Again, his trainer stated that Wilco was still behind the conditioning curve. And once again, he drew the outside post on an inside favoring speed track. His jockey elected not to leave hard and Wilco was again caught 4-5 wide on both turns. Despite this fact, he still finished determinedly and put in a last 1/8 in about 12 2/5. This accomplishment has been belittled because the two horses who finished in front of him were both longshots. In response to this criticism, I can only say that they both finished their last 1/8 in about 12 3/5. How many admittedly \"short horses\" could run down front runners on an inside speed favoring track after going 4-5 wide the whole way with those speed horses going the last 1/8 in
12 3/5?
Wilco is, according to his trainer, over his foot problems. This fact is evidenced by his fantastic works in preparation for the Derby. In particular, in his last 5 furlong work he sped the last 1/4 in 22 2/5! He then proceeded to pull up in about 11 4/5 to 12.
Contrary to other posts on this site, I, along with Beyer and several real experts on breeding, strongly believe that Wilco has an extraordinary 1 1/4 pedigree. Forget about the 7.0 Dosage Index. He only has 16 chef-de-race points due to the foreign elements of his pedigree. Those elements, which are given no influence under the Dosage Theory, along with his sire line, will give Wilco ample pedigree power.
Wilco possesses the perfect running style for this Derby. Given the speed present in the race, Wilco should be an intermediate stalker. He should be making his move toward the top at the end of the backstretch. This will allow him to get first run at the tiring speed and get an advantageous jump on the closers.
Wilco\'s trainer says that he has never been better and that he is ready for a career best effort. So do I. He is a must use in all exotic plays.
Post Edited (05-05-05 00:37)
Entire 5 Generation tail female lineage has produced 38 thousand dollars in 44 races.
If you go back to Azurine (4 generations) She foaled an English and Irish Oaks winner by the name of \"Blue Wind\". Those may have been 12 mark races. Thats getting pretty remote though.
http://www.pedigreequery.com/wilko
Hard to say Tap on Wood is much of an influence. Though he did get a couple quality horses.
Looks like the majority of the eggs are in the Indian Ridge basket and he has sired an even larger bunch of good horses than initially thought. Its very difficult trying to ascertain the distances of the races won by Indian Ridge\'s get. There were at least a couple 10 mark winners and a couple in good company at 12. As a whole he leans towards shorter. For whatever thats worth. But Indian Ridge himself comes from \"qualifying\" but relatively high dosage pedigree. Unfortunately, I have to really on the dosage there, because I\'m just not up on Euro pedigree and when it finally gets back to U.S. pedigree, its too remote for me. However this horse doesnt appear to be the equivalent of say Awesome Again/Maria\'s Mon over an Alydar or Easy Goer mare. He certainly bested a group in this race, but he hasn\'t gone forward like some of the others. He did lose to General John B and he lost his jockey also. Dettori has to want to win this race.
He could get dismissed a little on that 3rd in the last race. He is sitting on his best effort of the year and if he can keep running late when some of the others may be tiring (as he did in the B.C. Juvenile) he has a chance to win. You\'re talking a multiple point Top in the Derby of course.
by the way the horse\'s name is wilko not wilco. does this compromise your credibility?
With experts like you and Beyer we\'re in trouble. At least get the horses name right....
\"Forget about the 7.0 Dosage Index. He only has 16 chef-de-race points due to the foreign elements of his pedigree. Those elements, which are given no influence under the Dosage Theory, along with his sire line, will give Wilco ample pedigree power.\"
Hmmmm, no influence under Dosage Theory huh? How is it that Sadlers Wells, Mill Reef, Ela-Mana-Mou, In the Wings, Indian Ridge [Wilko\'s dams sire], Sea-Bird, Shirley Heights, etc. etc. etc are Chefs-de-Race, huh bunky??? Their offspring rarely set foot in North America. HOW IS THAT POSSIBLE, MR. SELF PROCLAIMED EXPERT??!!??
Believing trainer speak is the quickest way to ruin at the windows. Wilko was still in bar shoes [that\'s plural] at Santa. When I see him with a notation he\'s racing in regular shoes I\'ll believe it. btw Wilko worked very fast before the SAD, did that work you mention go in 1.10.6 as he did before the SAD? Just wondering...
I think Wilko has a chance to crash the super but not for any reason you\'d understand.
You can\'t like him from the 14 post.He was wide wide in a field of slow pigs in the SA derby.Now he\'s farther out against way better horses with much more tactical speed inside and outside of him.If you thought he had a bad trip last time wait till you see this one.
If you read my post, I didn\'t say I was an expert on breeding. Just the opposite. I referred to Beyer and myself in juxposition (sp ?) to \"real experts.\"
You may be right -- I may be incapable of understanding your reasoning. This may be attributable to a lack of capacity on my side or the lack of reason on yours.
As to pedigree, I was referring to the non-chef-de-race foreign elements of Wilco\'s pedigree. Again, he only has 16 chef points and Dosage Theory does not, of course, directly account for the influence of mares.
While I view your post as somewhat insulting, clearly condescending and rather hostile, I would commend you for being a good speller.
lol
That was a gentlemanly post in response to a heated attack.
Native Roots is certainly picking up the dosage \"brownie points\" from Indian Ridge. She herself, like nearly all of Wilkos dam side female pedigree, was a bust on the track. There isn\'t any female pedigree to factor on that side, but for the 4th generation producer Azurine.
http://www.pedigreequery.com/wilko
The lack of female influence is what appears to be the major problem with Wilkos pedigree. However sometimes that doesnt matter at all and it won\'t matter if he has saved his big move top while the others have fired it a race early.
You\'re adversary noted a bar shoe issue. Thats a very relevant point.
I factored his chances of winning somewhere around 4-5%. So 25-1 seems to be necessary to bet him to me.
albany wrote:
> If you read my post, I didn\'t say I was an expert on breeding.
> Just the opposite. I referred to Beyer and myself in
> juxposition (sp ?) to \"real experts.\"
>
> You may be right -- I may be incapable of understanding your
> reasoning. This may be attributable to a lack of capacity on my
> side or the lack of reason on yours.
>
> As to pedigree, I was referring to the non-chef-de-race foreign
> elements of Wilco\'s pedigree. Again, he only has 16 chef
> points and Dosage Theory does not, of course, directly account
> for the influence of mares.
>
> While I view your post as somewhat insulting, clearly
> condescending and rather hostile, I would commend you for
> being a good speller.
One additional note -- Wilko was training in bar shoes BEFORE his Breeders Cup win. Unfortunately, I don\'t know if he wore protective shoeing while he raced. Perhaps you could help on this point.
Chuckles,
Nakatani is riding Wilko in the Derby.
Otherwise the 14 past ain\'t bad for him. And if you like High Limit that is some perfect post...
HP
Didnt know he was bar shoed before the BC Juvy and am not sure how he was shoed for that race. If you find out please let us know.
High limit wasn\'t on my 7 possibles list and I don\'t think he can outfoot Spanish Chestnut, But....
With the tactics apparently being employed by Bellamania...what if Chestnut doesnt break clean? High Limit is on magic you know that.
Post Edited (05-05-05 08:12)
It\'s impossible to know how this race will go, but I don\'t think 14 is an impossible post. I feel the inside would be more dangerous since he would run the risk of being buried.
It is also better than a more outside post which would subject him to an even greater loss of ground.
Post Edited (05-05-05 12:30)
Chuckles: I will try to get back to the Board if I get more info on the shoe issue. Thanks again for your insights and help in regard to the pedigree issue. Perhaps the breeding experts I referred to in my original post were too reliant on the older parts of Wilko\'s pedigree. I am eagerly awaiting the Racing Form\'s pedigree analysis.
Pedigree will get you in trouble.
Bottom line is Wilko is a horse that has already overcome a lot of the weak female pedigree. His dam has a Grade I winner that has been extremely competitive, with excuses, in other Grade I races. He\'s already freaked.
They said he looked sore early in his last workout. His feet could be an issue. The shoeing is important I think.
albany wrote:
> Chuckles: I will try to get back to the Board if I get more
> info on the shoe issue. Thanks again for your insights and help
> in regard to the pedigree issue. Perhaps the breeding experts I
> referred to in my original post were too reliant on the older
> parts of Wilko\'s pedigree. I am eagerly awaiting the Racing
> Form\'s pedigree analysis.
wilko\'s second dam was effective at 9-10f. awesome again won 4 big races at 10f so he was kind of a 10f specialist. He will probably get the trip but he doesn\'t have to. Indian Ridge is a sprint/mile influence. WIL compares well with the last 2 winners of the derby who were buy stone sprinters.
I would also think there must be a stamina doubt for Bandini and High Limit. Ban is by Fupeg who was bred to be a miler and probably was. He lost 2 of 3 longer than 9f and got the trip of the century in the Derby to beat Aptitude 1 1/2 lengths. Second dam helps but Dixieland Band is another miler influence.
HL has a ton of speed on damside and Maria\' Mon has only a 6.86 AWD (average winning distance).
Wow; does this now make GIACOMO, still eligible for Nw1, a contender since he\'s beaten WILKO twice?
Good Luck,
joe B.
Lauren Stich, breeding analyst for the DRF, states on tonight\'s DRF chat room that Wilko \"definitely has a shot at a 1 1/4 and should be among the colts finishing the best.\" She also states that Wilko\'s Dosage of 7 is \"ridiculous.\"
Post Edited (05-05-05 19:44)
Albany, you\'re a little late coming to the Wilko bandwagon. This colt will run a big one Saturday...........The biggest longshot looks like Sort It Out. Here\'s where the TG numbers come to play.
Spa,
I hope your right on Wilko. I\'ve liked him for quite some time, but I was waiting for his final works and post position before I made any commitment.
What do the TG numbers tell you about Sort It Out? For that matter, what do you think they say about Wilko?
bloodline bob wrote:
> wilko\'s second dam was effective at 9-10f.
Bob, Wilkos second dam won 22 k in 21 races in the late 80\'s. No Black Type. If she won at 12 marks how relevant is it?
WIL compares well with the last 2
> winners of the derby who were buy stone sprinters.
Wilko has a improvement chance, its just that I prefer the stamina Dam side.
Maria\' Mon has only a 6.86
Maria\'s Mon is a nice stallion. Hes got a Derby winner and won the B.C. Juvy didn\'t he? Its pedigree i like.
Jbelfior:
Sorry for not getting back to you sooner.
Yes, I do think Giacomo is a contender. Too bad I didn\'t follow your logic, sarcastic as it might have been in its expression, when I bet the race!
Albany--
I was not trying to be sarcastic. I was trying to get feedback to what I thought may have made some sense.
I did not push hard enough on GIACOMO at the windows using him in exacta boxes. (not CLOSING ARGUMENT)
My wife, of course, said IF you had just bet all that money to win ...blah..blah...blah...blah...blah. Wives are great to have around at that point, aren\'t they? I told her IF the queen had jewels she would be the king.
In hindsight, i believe GIACOMO got real lucky and if one of those other donkeys had run 2nd, i would have been real lucky.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Jbelfior:
I must apologize for thinking you were being sarcastic. I was being overly defensive since I had been assailed by an earlier poster. I wish I had given more thought to your post and engaged in a dialogue on Giacomo. It may have helped both of us. In any event, congratulations on having the courage to bet such an outsider.
ctc-
Regarding Wilko we were talking aptitudes not class. So in the end did he get the trip? I don\'t know.
I don\'t think any of them got it. Slow race on fast track. We\'re breeding milers. And no one\'s going to tell me Giacomo\'s 2:02 4/5 would have beaten Secretariat\'s 1:59 3/5 becasue the scraped the track more back then.
Maria\'s Mon did sire derby winner from mare with tons of stamina. HL doesn\'t have that.
MM won the Champagne and then got hurt.
Jbelfior,
You liked Giacomo and didn\'t play any on him to win at 50-1? Just exactas? HP
HP--
Correct. That\'s why I had to show up for work this morning.
Actually, I liked HIGH LIMIT, HIGH FLY,and NCSWAY whom I boxed.
I then \"used\" GIACOMO as a long shot throw-in with BELLAMY ROAD and the 3 above.
If I had really liked him as my key play, of course I would have bet him to win.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Don\'t get me wrong, I\'ve done the same thing 100 times! HP
HP--
I would have been lucky if one of those other stiffs had come 2nd. But I\'d rather be lucky than good.
Let\'s all regroup and get \'em in Baltimore.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
What now for WILKO??
Perhaps you can apply the \"explosive pattern horse\" theory here.
WILKO paired his Thoro top in the SA Derby in his second start....a good sign. Then he regressed slightly in the Derby (tough trip...gets sawed off in the lane by a bearing out FLOWER ALLEY) to a 5.
Sometimes you get a 3yo that equals or exceeds his 2yo top, follows that up with a slight regression, then follows that with an explosive race (2-4 point improvement over his top)
Perhaps the PREAKNESS will be WILKO\'s explosive race. At 15-1, not a bad use in the exotics.
Good Luck,
Joe B.