Afleet Alex
Bandini
Bellamania
Greater Good
Greeley\'s Galaxy
High Fly
Wilko
Replace Greater Good with Sort It Out and let\'s do it......
Sort it out is gonna be on my tickets...these are the seven i think can win. Though some appear very remote.
Can\'t wait to hear which one you are giving the 60% chance to win......
CtC, we need to drop Greeley\'s Galaxy for Sun King.....Greeley doesn\'t appear to like the surface.
Sun King is perplexing.
Zito has called him his \"Captain\", but that may have been pre Bellamy and High Fly, who both came to him late this year. He knows Sun King since his 2 year old year.
The issue with Sun King is the two turn issue. Specifically the performance figures in the two turn races and as much as Zito and his opinion of his horses has to be respected, how does a handicapper ignore what on paper is an issue?
Greeley\'s work habits are troubling and perhaps enough to eliminate him as a possible winner. More review is needed.
I\'m interested in the angle that when supposedly given the choice, Prado decided to stay on Sun King rather than Noble Causeway who seems to be improving (beyers up). Aside from NC\'s derby race type-profile, is there any reason anyone knows why Prado would stay aboard Sun King?
It\'s a question of bottom....Sun King\'s got serious experience as a 2 year old. This race shapes up, to me, as a classic contrast between solid experienced, tested veterans and really untested \"morning glories\" that avoided the big battles. It should be a great race and a super race card.
Sun King continues to trouble me. He certainly skipped the big battles this year. His Bluegrass was a useful effort perhaps. Strange Track. hard to be enamored with the tardiness out of the gate, but it could be derby training i suppose.
Before the Derby \"Works\" did anyone observe how he worked for his previous races? If he worked the same there\'s no issue, but know of you folks really know that answer.
NC Tony
No one is mentioning Greater Good at all. I don\'t like him on the win end, but in the loss to AA, the pace was slow and he didn\'t have much of a chance to show his best. He finished really well in the prior race and had been slowly improving. I think this is one of those \"superfecta\" horses that should be included. I think he can certainly suck up for a piece of the pie if the pace is fast and that last furlong is a problem for some of the other faster horses.
Post Edited (05-06-05 10:26)
Since the Magnificent Seven include the three top betting choices, I\'m wondering why this is a good race to bet a lot of money on? Isn\'t that really the problem with this race? You have (for my money) two short priced horses that you really can\'t toss.
My list is only five
Afleet Alex
High Fly
High Limit
Sun King
Wilko
If I hear anything futzy about Wilko\'s shoes he\'s out, plus I\'ll probably only use him \"under\" (WARNING - The ones I only use \"under,\" especially at long prices, often win, resulting in much gnashing of teeth).
I might play BRoad over the four (w/out Afleet Alex), but I don\'t see the point of playing the top choices together in the exotics... I have to believe BRoad is going to back up for a variety of reasons and I figure I may as well play him to back up enough to let the others all the way in. I don\'t think it\'s a great draw for him either...
It should be a great race, but maybe not the greatest betting Derby (although I will be swinging in the exactas with the longer priced ones on my list (the Filthy Five?)).
Good luck!
HP
HP.
You got the same 5 as me.
FWIW Class,
If I was going way deep in here for the supers and the like, I might use GGalaxy, AHero and perhaps a few others. GGood is not impossible. I just don\'t think I\'m going that route... You could certainly do well if you could figure out this year\'s Limehouse...
HP
I wouldn\'t be suprised to see the Lukas horse sneak into the Super and be very competitive in the Preakness. He\'s very seasoned and is coming back around..
I personally asked him (not kidding).
He answered me with this...\" you must think I\'m stupid, right\"....\" well I\'m not,\" he said.
I interpreted his response as more of a negative for NC than a positive for SUN KING.
Good Luck,
joe B.
Maybe Prado\'s choice was based on which owner he would rather remain in the good graces of. Not an insignificant factor for a jockey.
Lot\'s to like about this horse. Very lucky at the draw as post 3 is one of the winningest in Derby history. Prado has the experience and in my opinion is the best rider out there. He\'s due. Horse also got down to a zero BEFORE Afleet Alex and the latter is still a 2yo. Chances are good that Sun king is circling back to his top and he\'s never been out of the superfecta.
While I think Afleet Alex is the best horse, Sun King is more likely to move forward and will save more ground than Afleet Alex whereas AA faces ground loss, the possiblity of a bounce, inexperienced jockey and underlayed odds.
I\'m gonna take the stand that only 2 horses can beat Sun King and if they don\'t fire, I\'ll collect 9-1 odds (or better?) to win.
It could be disasterous, but perhaps Zito has misjudged Sun King and he will be included no higher than 3rd. Maybe one small perfecta in second. The Gulfstream race though perhaps a legit Zed does not look particularly impressive in the circumstances. He couldn\'t handle Alex in the past, other than bounce theres little reason to think he can handle Alex now. He benefitted from a nice path in the Bluegrass and accomplished little. If you like very late and slow gallops out on the turns past the winners. You gotta love the Zito\'s.
Just saw a reply of Arkansas Derby and Rose really didn\'t save anything, did he?
Nope! he was wipping to the wire.
NC Tony
MO wrote:
> Just saw a reply of Arkansas Derby and Rose really didn\'t save
> anything, did he?
In my opinion he was moving very well late. Despite a wide trip, inexorably gaining ground on Andromeda\'s Hero who appears to have nice late energy.
My theory on this race is not the Killer B\'s vs the field. I view this race as four horses having relatively the same top figure (-1 to -2) meeting. That view isn\'t precisely what TGraph says, but its very close in my opinion factoring bias which they note but don\'t adjust for.
Its a wing dinger and has never happened before to my knowledge. Four evenly scored negative figure horses
Whoa doggies
CtC said,
\"My theory on this race is not the Killer B\'s vs the field. I view this race as four horses having relatively the same top figure (-1 to -2) meeting. That view isn\'t precisely what TGraph says, but its very close in my opinion factoring bias which they note but don\'t adjust for\"
If you bring all the horses with negative figs to the rail, BR lays over, all things equal.
My theory is the Wood collapsed some so Im not so sure of that. But if they all got to run around the track alone from the one hole for time. You might be right.
Afleet Alex went back to his right lead close to the wire is my read on it. That could be indicating that 10 marks is an issue, but he had a right to change leads on that sustained move from outside around the turn.
Are you saying AA was on his left lead from the turn until close to the wire?
If so that\'s approaching Arazi\'s move on his left lead in the JUV.
yeah i\'m pretty sure, though the legs are covered by the on screen display data for a good part of the stretch. He was on the left lead, he did change it just at the wire, but i\'ll tell you when he changed it i think.
I think he changed it when the Jock rose up in the saddle and began pumping his fist. If he sensed and changed that quick...what a marvelous little nimble horse he is.
Running THAT final quater on his left lead is pretty amazing. Anyone thinking of tossing this horse, take a look at his BC JUV. race. This is a special horse with a lot of heart. The race sets up beautifully for him. Only question does he get 1 1/4 and nobody knows that answer.