Is anyone else shocked by the post position choice of zito on bellamy road. Is this a case where the Boss stepped in? I may be missing something here but why would you put a horse that wants the lead and breaks well to the outside of the slower speed. Won\'t this insure he loses ground into the first turn and is harder to rate? I would want my speed horse down closer to the inside where I know I\'ll outbreak the closers than let the cheap speed go by me while I save ground on the first turn. I think there is no way Bellamy won\'t be at least 4 wide into the first turn. anyone else feel this way? I wasn\'t going to wager a dollar on BR in any meaningful bet anyway but this makes me even more brave with other horses. michael
Not me. See the thread below \"Draft Order\".
To my knowledge Bellamania has been working alone without work mates. Even then, by reports, he\'s been less than professionally relaxed. Why they believe he\'s gonna accept rating from the 16 hole in the next one is a mystery.
We may be talking the next Secretariat, but he\'s got a very unusal way of moving. Head high, significant vertical head movement, (especially under restraint), a very unusual lock kneed stride. That stride is long though. He really throws it out there and its possible this is what the pro watchers like. To my eye he\'s a very unappealing mover. However, he\'s also quicker than I at first thought. He has really pushed out of the gate in my opinion.
The Bad race is that Keeneland Breeders Futurity. He met a good horse there and when he was seriously engaged by another quality horse he responded but when headed he absolutely caved. With that long stride how does this horse respond when challenged? By trying to stride out longer? That may not be possible. By quickening tempo? Well he may have tried that in the Breeders Futurity and lost rhythm.
Even accepting a negative 5 or 120 in the Wood. He has this to overcome:
-Post and an apparent outside trip. They are obviously gonna try to rate him. This horse has had absolute dream holes and dream trips in his prior races;
-The fact that he never has rated;
-More traffic than he has ever encountered. to my eye hes been a left leaner. Problems out of the gate here could put him is a touch spot and maybe Bandini too.
-Possible bounce from a huge effort.
Crist said 3-2 might be good price. 5-2 stealing if he wins. (Wasn\'t sure you evaluated the odds AFTER the results.) If this horse turns out to be Secretariat or Seattle Slew thats possible. Seattle Slew overcame adversity in his Derby. He wasn\'t asked to change his style. He just changed it is all. Secretariat ran his race. Both had extensive records of prior accomplishment. This horse doesn\'t. Who has he beaten. What adversity has he overcome? If he beats you, tip your hat and say \"go get them in the next two\". He\'s gonna have to be as special as those others mentioned to be able to do it.