Anybody catch the transcipts of Andy Beyer\'s chat last night on DRF? If so, you can downgrade Bellamy Road\'s chances quite a bit. Beyer thins BR is the best of his generation and that we will see \"something special\" on Saturday. He also is downgrading all horses that have early speed and who will be with Bellamy Road early. He said his first throwout is High Limit.
Based on his track record of never having picked a winner in the Derby, the extra weight that Bellamy will carry with Beyer on his back, is probably too much to overcome.
I might have to put a saver on his \"first throwout\", High Limit.....
Actualy beyer has picked a winner in print and then on tv. derby day decides to go w/a worthless nag that ran up the track....his reasoning sounded like something I often end up doing[picking a horse to do the impossible with the hope and convition that I alone had him!]
PARTYpokerON!
I enjoyed his books and enjoy his columns. But, as a handicapper, he\'s just another gallon of water over Niagara Falls.
He considered Smarty a toss last year. His worst mistake, for those old enough to remember, he kept insisting even after the Triple Crown, that Seattle Slew was overrated.
I tend to agree with his logic about High Limit.
If High Limit couldn\'t cope with Spanish Chestnut going 9F, how is he going to cope with Spanish Chestnut, Going Wild, and BR going 10F with a much deeper and talented field taking pot shots late.
I happen to think HL ran a pretty good race in the BG (all things considered). I also think Frankel can get a little more out of him considering how lightly raced he is and this being 3rd off the layoff. I just think this is a terrible spot for him. He\'s either going to have to do something he\'s never done before (rate and pick up horses) or hope the other quality speeds get screwed at the start or don\'t go fast early.
His 2nd biggest goof was getting old and frumpy.
Re-read his 50grand book and feel the adrenilin flowing...today he\'s just an old school advocate on many of racings so called traditions.
But he\'s still a hero of mine and I\'ll always think of him and his litle buddy fighting thru the adversaries they faced.(What kind of a mother lets their son leave such a fine school to bet on horses for a living?!)
PARTYpokerON!
You can agree with Beyer or not, but if you\'ve been around long enough you must know that the addition of Beyers\' figs to DRF had a substantial impact on the odds board.
Many years ago I was a TG sheet player with a hugh edge over most traditional non figure using horse players.That edge has been eroding away over the past 5 years or so because of Beyers and increased use of sheets/speed figs by many.
Miff...you are so right..
Years ago Friedman would own up to same idealogy...even so far as to say that there were only 1 or2 plays per day.
Thank g-d brown hasn\'t given in to the rinkly chin syndrome...some good stuff in these here sheets and his graph is the most accurate and easiest to form an opinion with.
I know I know ..some of that crap he imports from equi-base is trash and it is taking him forever to impliment his own equations(holding back on us jerr?)but if you know of a better package...then fess up.
I do not own stock in this co. and thank g-d brown isn\'t dating any of my daughters.
\"An inexperienced jockey on a horse who has to come from far behind is not what you want. Rose certainly didnt distinguish himself in the Breeders\' Cup. I think the owners and trainer would probably have replaced him if a big star had been available.\"
Andy what makes you think Alex will be \"far\" behind. Are you aware he layed 3.75 lengths behind the Ark pace and had iffectively seized the lead at the 6 furlong mark?
\"A lot of people have asked about the legitimacy of the fig, (Bellamania\'s Wood) and we of course took a hard look at it. It was ambiguous in the sense that there was only one 1 1/8-mile race on the Aqueduct card. Nevertheless, while he ran his big race, none of the horses behind him improved on any of their recent figures, and you\'d expect them to do so in a big race for which all the trainers have been pointing. So I would say, if the figure is at all off, it is off by being too low.\"
Beyersese: Ambiguous = He could have run really, really fast.
Andy certainly got the \"failure of the (Wood) competition to improve\" part right. But how does that equate to a proposition that \"If the figure is off, it is off by being too slow?\" What about this Andy, What if the horses behind Bellamania ran horribly? Still Think Bellamania may have run a 125?.
\"The track was super-fast, but being fast doesn\'t necessarily make it speed-biased. I think the race was completely legit.\"
Andy, you just called it \"ambiguous\". Theres people here about to wager money, some significantly. Was the Wood Completely Legit or was it Ambiguous?
\"If you\'re a class-oriented handicapper, you\'d say he\'d (Wilko) already won at this level in the Breeders\' Cup. He\'s got a solid pedigree for the distance and the right style.\"
Andrew, assuming his style is right for the race, did you realize he was 3.75 lengths behind the pace at the first call in the Santa Anita Derby? Thats the same distance Afleet Alex rated yet you called that one too far back? Additionally, what makes you think his pedigree is solid for the distance?
\"When I watched the Blue Grass I thought--as most people surely did--that it looked like an impressive race. But when you analyze it closely it wasn\'t. The race was loaded with front-running types, and Bandini was able to stalk them. When the leaders collapsed, he went past, but the final eighth of a mile was run in 13 2/5 seconds, so he wasn\'t exactly flying.\"
Andini, the speed in the Bluegrass was foreseeable. Are you aware that by all appearances a significant anti inside bias existed and that High limit, though already beaten, was down inside and jumping tracks during the stretch run? Granted the finishing fraction wasn\'t scalding, but aren\'t factoring slow surfaces what speed figures are all about? Additionally, how did Peace Rules come home in the 2003 Bluegrass?
\" Sun King is an interesting longshot on a number of grounds. He\'s got the proper profile for the Derby--a solid foundation at 2 and 3 prep races this year. He can finish. He\'s got Zito. And his disappointing effort in the Blue Grass could be part of the long tradition of horses running lousy in the Blue Grass and then coming to Churchill and running big.\"
\"He can finish\" Andrewella? What makes you think that? The Breeders Cup Juvenile? The Bluegrass or the one turn Hallandale race?
\"Despite his solid Illinois Derby number, no. I still put a lot of stock in the lessons of history about the overall preparation a horse needs, and Greeley\'s Galaxy has two strikes against him: he didn\'t start as a 2-year-old, and he has only 4 career starts. Moreover, he had a fairly soft trip beating a weak field in Illinois.\"
Andy, but for the two year old start voodoo, I would have sworn you were almost talking about Bellamania. Would you concede that whatever foundation Greeley has its recent, honest and progressive?
\"I think Bellamy Road is going to confirm the legitimacy of that 120 figure, that he has going to deliver an overpowering performance, and that by Saturday night he will be hailed as the sport\'s new superstar.\"
Andy, if Bellamania does \"confirm\" the legitimacy of a 120 Beyer, who will he be confirming it with?
\"I would be against any of the speed horses who are going to be vying with Bellamy Road, and would emphasize horses who can finish. You can\'t knock Afleet Alex. Sun King has a shot. I\'d be looking at the clunker-uppers like Noble Causeway or Wilko rather than more highly regarded speed types like Bandini and High Lmit.\"
Andy, you already have knocked Afleet Alex, but if its bad for the speed horses to run with Bellamania, why isn\'t it bad for Bellamania to run with the speed horses? Especially in consideration of Bellamania\'s need for the lead in his past performances and his problems with losing it?
Andy walking, andy tired
Andy take a little snooze
Tie him up when hes fast asleep
Send him on a pleasant cruise
When he wakes up on the sea
He sure to think of me and you
He\'ll think about paint and he\'ll think about glue
What a jolly boring thing to do
Andy Beyer looks a scream
Hang him on my wall
Andy Beyer, silver screen
Can\'t tell them apart at all
p.s. Thanx for the additional Hype.
Nice David Bowie reference!
Clown,
Afleet Alex will be 10 lengths off the pace in the Derby and will need to negotiate a trip.
I would have thought a \"pace handicapper\" like yourself would realize that. The Arkansas Derby had the slowest pace figure of any of the major preps, that is why AA was 3.75 off the lead.
That said, there is nothing wrong with being 10 lengths off a hot pace, as long as Rose negotiates a hot pace.
If AA is only 3 lengths off the lead in the Derby that would actually be a bad thing for him, it probably means the pace is slow and Bellamy will be hard to beat if he gets to the half in 47.
Beyer in today\'s form seems to conclude that the five \"2 prep\" horses aren\'t seasoned enough to win. He\'s right. But then he reverses course and says since they are so numerous one of them will probably win. But if Afleet Alex wins he\'ll be saying I told you so.
Great article but then he got weak in the knees at the end.
Without blowing Afleet Alex\'s horn. He is push button Rateable and may be 10 lengths back early, but 10 lengths back in 6th or 7th and probably running very close to Wilko. He was before.
bloodline bob wrote:
> Beyer in today\'s form seems to conclude that the five \"2 prep\"
> horses aren\'t seasoned enough to win. He\'s right. But then he
> reverses course and says since they are so numerous one of them
> will probably win. But if Afleet Alex wins he\'ll be saying I
> told you so.
>
> Great article but then he got weak in the knees at the end.
>
That article was mind numbing. Beyer wrote a whole page on the importance of preps and at the very end said the odds were that a horse would win the race overcoming all the historical data, without mentioning Bellamania who he said last night would win the Derby on, you guessed it, Two Preps. He then fell over on himself and covered that prediction with some lip service to Afleet Alex falling within the guidelines.
Well, the guidelines are Voodoo and Zito said it best. The reason the horses are being brought to the Derby on light campaigns is that they can\'t stand training and racing at the level of effort being massaged out of them in the new era. Its certainly possible that Bellamania would have won the Derby on April 9th. Will he win it on May 7th?
Jerry why do you let ctc continue to take up space on this board. With all the great information and insightful comments thats available here, there is really no room for this jerk. His posts to me are like someone scratching on a blackboard. We are 3 days from the derby and there is no better place to get information from than here. Can\'t you just ban him for the next 3 days.
Tim,
Why would you want to ban CTC. If you read all of his derby posts on the board you can find some support for any horse you like(even \"Bellamania\") and some disparaging comments about any horse you don\'t like. Of course, don\'t read too closely because you will also read disparaging comments about any horse you like and positive comments about any horse you don\'t like. If you think he is annoying just think haw Andy Beyer feels.
What the hell is a rinkly chin syndrome? And I\'ve got bad news about your daughter(s)...
Actually the discussion of horses liked has been kept to a minimum. We have a pretty good idea where the horses are going to break from now, but there could be a wrinkle or two thrown in at the last minute. We\'ll know in about 90 minutes.
Anyone can pick a Kentucky Derby favorite and sometimes you can even win with one. If Andy Beyer had been on favorites since 1973 he\'d of won quite a few Kentucky Derbies. Whether he\'d have a positive R.O.I. or not is debateable. He\'s on the favorite this year, well, maybe until that last article in the online DRF anyway. That one was hard to digest.
Whats been discussed is the reliability of the figures this year in consideration of some factually challenging races. Theres been results in key prep races to think that the horses behind the winners may have fallen off form. Before handicappers can even begin to decide where horses are going they have to be reasonably certain they know where they\'ve been. Bluegrass day there is a theorized bias to factor. In regard to that bias, issues exist pertaining to how High Limit performed as compared to his past efforts. Theres a point where High Limits head dips late stretch and where momentum appears to be more quickly dissipated and where Bandini signifcantly increases his lead. Sun King, racing wide throughout and who languished in that race is seen galloping with Bandini post wire. High Limit is out of view. What should handicappers make of that all that, the various factors considered?
Then theres the Wood. Obviously an impressive winner. How fast was that track by that race however? The fastest it has ever been? Even Beyer said it was extremely fast. What if thats an understatement? At this point with the post race knowledge gained, does anyone really think the other horses in the Wood came close to pairing their previous efforts? If someone does state the case for it. Most crashed and burned. Its merely a question of survivors or how bad they X\'d. For some X\'s are hard to figure. Personally, I have no way to really calculate an X.
They are both questionable races, but theres enough evidence to believe the Bluegrass is more ascertainable than the Wood.
And that doesnt even address the race Derby Day.
Ascertainable? What do you find more ascertainable? This is like a Dead Sea Scroll. I need a translator.
HP
HP wrote:
> Ascertainable? What do you find more ascertainable? This is
> like a Dead Sea Scroll. I need a translator.
>
> HP
Its a belief that TGraph has identified a tool on Frankel that is hard to refute. His get fast early and stay in their form/speed niche. Additionally, TGJB stated if you take Bandinis jump out of the race is it so hard to believe High Limit beat that field like he did? Additionally, pre Bluegrass what were Sun Kings two turn efforts? If you discounted his wide trip effort a couple points on aiding bias to High Limit is it in line with his previous two turn efforts? If you accept that an anti inside bias existed, the race becomes much easier to digest.
The Wood stands alone.
As easy to digest as your posts, Chuckles! HP
While its true ctc hedges in all the material he writes...he still comes up with more pertinent info. than all of us stacked end to end.
Why the hell he writes a novella almost every post...is his business...but he does come up with some gems!
For those not yet afflicted with rinkly chin syndrome....Its that turkey like growth that starts forming on your neck when you reach a certain age.(sometimes causing a mentality driven by familiarity)old age to everyone else!
And while I\'m at it ctc isn\'t the only one sitting on a fence...everyone of you opinionated degenerates is hesitant to step up to the plate
It is now p.p. time get off your duff and be counted!
PARTYpokerON!
The race is still 71 hrs away. We could all change our minds several times between now and then.
NEW RULE!
horse aficionados are hereby permitted to favor a single runner in major events AND change their pick any time before post.
this posturing can and will rid those of us that are smite with superstition and embarrassment
I\'ll go first...Afleet Alex to win the Kentuuuuuckyyyy DDDDerrrrbbyyy.that wasn\'t so bad ...and I feel so much better!!
Thank you DR. Phil..
CH--
You may get 15-1 to find out if HIGH LIMIT can relax and pick up. Fractions in the the Delaware mile race and in Louisiana clearly indicate he is not a runaway train.
Frankel did very little with him before the BG...several mild breezes in one month.
Besides, what better angle than the fact that both BEYER and CRIST hate him.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
I read this morning that Frankel is upset with Dominguez. Not only don\'t Beyer & Crist like the horse, apparently Dominguez isn\'t too enamored of his chances either.
Frankel threatens to change jocks. Hope he does. It would be a stupid thing to do
Dominquez must know what others apparently do not. HL surrendered meekly to Bandini after a PERFECT trip chasing a warm pace,while drifting inside brushing the rail.He paired(rags too, 4\'s),and his prior loose lead effort on a speed favoring track was unimpressive.
This is 10f, he won\'t get that same perfect trip and faces several faster horses with strong late runs.Unimaginable that HL hits the board unless the fast ones implode.
Joe B,
Add me to the list with Beyer , Christ, et al.
I have been anti HL from the start. Not enough seasoning, owner entered etc. Called him a traffic factor in the last 1/4, meaning the contenders will have to weave around him.
There\'s one authority who likes him to run a big one, and as I recall, he will be well rewarded in the futures if he does...
Miff---
Why would you ever want to be on any list with those two??
Seriously speaking...I think HL is too talented to be disregarded the way he has. I do not agree pace was warm. ...:46 3/5, 1:10 2/5 is motoring at Keenland going a 1 1/8th. As mentioned before, several breezes between the La. Drby and the BG indicated Frankel\'s intentions.
The BG was one huge workout.
He\'s already proven he\'s better than 80% of this field. So what\'s wrong with taking 15-1 with that in mind.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Joe,
I\'ll pass on HL going 10F with other speeds in the race. If he were trained by anyone other than Frankel (or Pletcher) I wouldn\'t have even wasted the time thinking about it a little bit. Get me 25-1 and then we can talk. :-)
Post Edited (05-05-05 14:33)
CH--
Can\'t get you 25-1. If you don\'t like him, what\'s the difference if he\'s 15 or 25 (besides 10)?
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Joe B,
Someone I respect alot at CD said HL has trained great. I can\'t forgive HL for his gutless performance in the BG.To me he laid perfect behind a \"target\" in Spanish Chestnut and he followed the pace, Joe, he didn\'t make it,imv.
Anyway 15-1 or not,the stretch at CD is not for the feint of heart,and I do not think he can finish with this group .With 20 going, you have take stands \"against\" and he\'s one of mine.If I\'m wrong,I won\'t cash. That happens to me about 70% of the time.
Joe,
Naturally it\'s going to depend on the post time odds, but right now I am leaning towards Bandini, High Fly, and Greely\'s Galaxy based on what I \"think\" the odds will be.
I don\'t buy the straight up stats on bounces for big figures, new tops coming in, etc... I think each horse has to analyzed individually.
I sort of think that BR ran the best race last time out. However, between having quality speed inside of him, 10F, the potential for lesser performance than that, and the fact that that last race was against garbage cans on a track that certainly wasn\'t hostile to speed, I wan\'t to play against him as the favorite (assuming he is). Naturally, he has a big shot if he fires close to his last. I just see a lot of ways for him not to.
To me, Bandini\'s figure is a key. I think the pace was a bit fast and impacted several of the horses. On paper, I also totally agree with JB that it doesn\'t make sense that all the horses that finished well behind him ran poorly/slowly. They are mostly a very consistent group of lightly raced improving 3YOs. So no matter how you get there (numerically or subjectively, with pace or without), I think Bandini\'s BG was probably a high quality peformance. I love Pletcher and I think he will get another big race out of him.
I think High Fly\'s Florida Derby was better than it looks. He raced close to a fast pace and finished well enough. I think he is better than most people give him credit for. I think he has a similar chance to Afleet Alex and Greely\'s Galaxy.
I more or less make Afleet Alex and Greely\'s Galaxy similar.
AA has the much better overall record but he has never looked like a 10F horse to me. Maybe I\'m wrong, but I\'m discounting his chances a little based on that. His last race was a slow pace that turned into a sprint home and so was his Champagne. I\'d be more confident if I had seen him cope with a tough pace at a route and finish well at a distance.
GG has just that one huge figure and only 4 starts. Not sure what to expect, but it was a fast race last out. Both AA and GG killed similar \"2nd string\" fields by similar amounts.
I\'m not sure what to make of Sun King. If he wins it won\'t be with my money, but it\'s not impossible.
After that I think horses like Wilko, Noble Causway, Giacomo and other big long shot closers are very live to get a piece of the super or triple if the pace is fast enough to take out a few of the speeds and/or a couple of others don\'t want 10F.
I haven\'t actually created an odds line yet and I might still change my mind a little, but that\'s my thinking right now.
Post Edited (05-05-05 15:42)
I have formulated a betting strategy based on the following points I have deluded myself into believing. Feel free to throw poo on it.
- Bandini is a must toss at the expected low price; they cashed (literally, at the windows) in the Bluegrass, now it\'s derby fever; big top (I have faith in the TG #) with little foundation, only 3 weeks off
- Must use Bellamy Road for obvious reasons; too short a price to key and low fun factor being the big chalk and Kinsman
- Must use to a lesser extent Afleet Alex, Greeley\'s Galaxy, & High Limit; AA has the nice neg # AND the foundation but also Rose, a relatively short price, and a decent chance at a wide or troubled trip; GG & HL could either run well and odds will be fair (or maybe not for HL, we\'ll see! toss at < 10-1, win saver at > 20-1)
- In tris & supers must use Sun King, Noble Causeway, & Wilko in 3 & 4 slots
- The key in all exotics is High Fly; I have no good reasons not to expect him to either pair up or move slightly forward off his last, considering 5 weeks off and the strong foundation; Based on his PROVEN effective stalking style he projects to have a good trip; he might not be as fast as some of these but he\'s been the most consistent this year; the proven faster ones look all too shaky to key on or too short, HF just needs to run his race (probable) and has a decent chance at a top 3 finish unless 3 of the big figure ones pair up (not probable)
- Since Bellamy Road can still bounce and trounce (trademark) he will be used heavier in tris and keyed on top in the super, and also on top in a saver exacta with HF; the super is more of a chalk saver, too many combos using so many in here
Wagers will look like this:
Tri;
HF
BR(x2),AA,GG,HL
BR,AA,GG,HL,SK,NC,W
BR(x4),AA,GG,HL
HF
BR,AA,GG,HL,SK,NC,W
BR(x4),AA,GG,HL
BR,AA,GG,HL
HF
Super;
BR
HF
AA,GG,HL,SK,NC,W
AA,GG,HL,SK,NC,W
BR
AA,GG,HL,SK,NC,W
HF
AA,GG,HL,SK,NC,W
Ex;
HF
BR(x5),AA(x3),GG,HL,SK,NC,W
BR(x10),AA(x3),GG,HL,SK,NC,W
HF
Win;
HF(x40) at > 10-1
HL(x10) at > 20-1
GG(x5) at > 20-1
CH--
OK. Not sure Pletcher can get another one out of BANDINI. I do not agree with you on that.
As for HIGH FLY, now there\'s a tenacious fighter who will be tough to pass in the lane.
It may be too much to ask GGlxy to give another ace performance off of too little foundation.
I\'d bet GIACOMO before I bet SUN KING.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Joe,
Yea, I didn\'t want to start that whole foundation debate again, but I think that is a small negative for GG.
Pletcher is one notch below God. Just keep that in mind when you bet the exotics. ;-)
Miff..
Was Dominguez using the whip on High Limit down the stretch?
I haven\'t seen the race.. What was the \"Bobble at 1/16th pole\" ?
There\'s one fact here that I think is important.. High Limit\'s effort in the LA Derby was a big one coming off a 6 month layoff.
A month rest for the BG was probably barely enough rest. If Frankel knows he has a derby horse, he\'s not going to crack HL to win the BG.
If Dominguez wasn\'t urging HL around the track, then it was nothing more than a workout.
Watch them on kentuckyderby.com, HIGH LIMIT looked under the whip at the to of the stretch. In the Florida derby, HIGH FLY looked looked like he was doing it much easier, kinda under wraps, check it out.