The following is my estimate of the pace and speed of the Blue Grass using Beyer Scale figures. They were made using only the route races for the day and my \"best effort\" projections using Beyer final time speed figure inputs and the fractions/visual inputs for pace.
Notes:
1. Pace figures cannot be made with the same degree of accuracy as final time numbers and Keeneland is not one of the tracks I make them for on a regular basis. Others may have slightly different figures.
2. The formula I use to generate the performance rating (P.R.) here is not \"reality\". It\'s my best guess estimate of reality. I use these figures to get a mental picture of the impact of the pace. It is not a precise measurement I use for betting purposes or to see patterns in the figures.
3. These are Beyer scale figures. They do not include the impact of ground loss or bias. You must supplement that info on top of P.R. rating.
Blue Grass Race
Pace = 115
Final Time 106
Horse.....Pace/Final..P.R...Prior Beyer
Bandini...111 - 106...108.5....98
HL........114 - 97...105.5...105
CA........107 - 92....99.5....98
Sun King..99 - 91....95......91
Consol....106 - 84....95.....105
Span Ches.115 - 83....99......79
Mr Sword...98 - 72....85......90
Further Notes:
1. Spanish Chestnut has had other fast paced races so his 99 performance figure for the BG is not that far out of line with previous slow final time figures.
2. IMO, High Limit\'s race in the Blue Grass was actually superior to his race in the LA Derby even though his P.R. for the race matches his prior Beyer. IMO, The LA Derby performance was aided by an easy trip. I expected this horse to continue developing and I think he will again. The distance and BR are the problems/question marks.
3. Consolidator\'s 105 in his prior race was earned on a wet rolled track that I believed was suspect coming into the BG.
4. I would prefer not commenting or discussing this too much in depth because this is not the forum for it. (I\'m already pressing my luck just by posting it) It\'s all just \"my humble opinion\".
5. I will only note that I made the race faster than Beyer did and I also obviously believe the pace was fast enough to impact several horses. If you add ground loss to the equation I think it becomes quite clear that the BG was a very legitimate high quality prep race both numerically and subjectively.
Post Edited (05-04-05 07:53)