I\'ve only been a player for about one year.
Is it possible to make a profit in this game
or is everybody just kidding themselves.
thanx
I would say that 99% of all horseplayers ARE kidding themselves. You can make money but you better be in the top 1% of the handicappers, because with a 15%+ takeout you are going to have a lot of losers, and no data (no matter how expensive) will automatically make you a winner. In fact, to give yourself the best chance of success you should use data that is not known by most of the crowd. Unfortunately, everyone uses speed figures nowadays so their value has deteriorated greatly... so you will need something more to put yourself ahead of everyone else.
Play the pick-6 with a carryover, play pick three\'s, or smuggle cans of Miller Light into the NYRA tracks and sell them for less than $4.75 a pop. Otherwise, forget it.
Well said!!!!!!!
By the way, anybody have any tips on the third at Belmont tomorrow. If I hit that one I can\'t lose (the pick-6), and I promise you a percentage of my 200g winnings.
I just couldn\'t resist replying to this:
Yes, its possible, but unlikely.
Take me, for example. Before 1992, I was down about $20,000 in my 7 years of handicapping. Then hit a pick 6 for $133,000 (including P5 consos). That was January of 1992. Hit the P6 six more times that year (including twice in one day due to a gate scratch, thereby getting stuck with the fav who won, and I already had him.)
Quit my job and went to the desert, where in January of 1993 had a career month without the benefit of a pick six. Have not had a winning year since, but many break even years.
Have a positive career ROI somewhere between $50,000- $70,000. (Not gonna tell you, it wouldn\'t be prudent)
Why so many losing years? In a word- cheating. Remedy- quit playing every day and focus on stakes races, where there is less of it.
If you take into account the break even years plus the 17% take, those were really winning years.
These are the facts. Any complaints will be considered Ragozin communist propaganda. LOL
Keep trying.
MO
I couldn\'t help but notice that most of the responses to the question posed above mentioned handicapping ability as a factor, but did not speak to the more important question of betting ability.
Back in the day I was friends with this guy who was a top-notch handicapper. He could dope out the most impossible-looking pace scenarios, he had a steel trap of a memory, he could rattle off the most obscure statistics imaginable.
And he was a horrific loser. In fact, for almost a year, things were so bad he lived in his car. It was always my feeling that, deep down, for a variety of reasons I won\'t bore you with here, he WANTED to lose.
The person who has taught me the most about this game (a close friend\'s father) is a fairly unsophisticated handicapper. He doesn\'t use sheets, figs, or any other sort of numbers. Yet, since I\'ve been tagging along with him, since Saratoga way back in \'88, he has had ONE losing season. One.
Methods to his madness ? He doesn\'t bet between Breeder\'s Cup and May or June, at which time he bets Belmont (and Belmont only) once or twice a week and watches the NYRA replays every day to look for any trends, biases, bad trips, etc. He bets very few races; he bets only certain kinds of races (grass allowances and dirt claiming sprints). He concentrates almost all of his play on Saratoga. He keeps close records of his wagers.
Mostly, tho, it really comes down to his psychology. He trusts his conclusions, he doesn\'t give a @!#$ what other people think, he doesn\'t make the sort of impulse plays that eat away at his bankroll, and he bets with impunity.
So, yeah, I guess you can show a profit at this. It just takes a lot of discipline and the right mentality - two things that are not easily come by, I guess.