I guess Jimbo and High Roller won\'t be sharing that box at the Derby after all...
Great week coming up. Belmont opening day Wednesday (100th anniversary), the Big Event Saturday, and on Sunday a flight to West Palm for five days of golf with my pop, who I haven\'t seen in a year. Of course the rainy day contingency plans include the Kennel Club near the West Palm airport, one of my favorite simo destinations.
I don\'t need to pick one winner of the Derby. I need to pick a team of possible winners to use in the two gimmicks I plan on playing: The Oaks/ Derby double (is it even being offered this year?)(I know it is a gimmick in the strictest sense of the word, but when else can you be alive in a double for 24 hours?)and the CD Pick 4 which ends with the Derby.
I have Wilko, Noble Causeway and Sun King in futures. If Wilko or SK win, its a rather nice score and it will be the first time I hit the future bet since it has been widely offered.
Two unscientific gut feelings:
1) Bellamy either wins or is out of the Tri.
2) An unheralded jockey/ trainer combo from the Delaware Valley will NOT win the roses for the second straight year.
Two Derby gurus-- Lukas and Zito-- account for 7 of the 20 entries in the race. Todd Pletcher, who will eventually probably end up with more Ky. Derbies than either of the gurus, will saddle 3. 10 out of 20 from 3 barns. The winner will emerge from these 10, IMO. I would be ashamed to make such an obvious prediction except that 9 out of these 10 could offer very good value.
ZITO
Br 5/2
High Fly 10/1
Noble Causeway 12/1
Sun King 20/1
Andromeda 30/1
PLETCHER
Bandini 8/1
Flower Alley 30/1
Coin Silver 40/1
LUKAS
Consolidator 25/1
Going Wild 60/1
ZITO:I have already given my unscientific take on BR. He looked tremendous behind the gate at the Wood and has supposedly trained brilliantly at CD (DRF correspondents have been impressed with BR and Hi Fly, not so impressed with SK and NC).
Hi Fly: Like recent Derby winners Grindstone, Monarchos, Funny Cide and Smarty, he will be attempting to win the Derby in his 7th start. Odds on in 5 of his 6 lifetime starts, my take on the Fla Derby is that Bailey had something left, that he could have held NC safe for another 1/8th mile. To me Bailey and Gary Stevens are the 2 jocks you want in a 10 furlong race with a 20 horse field.
Sun King: The Bluegrass was enigmatic. His only stakes win was the Tampa Bay Derby. If trained by anyone other than Lukas or Zito, he probably would be every bit of 50/1, with good reason-- he\'s not as fast and not as classy as many of his competitors
NC: Look for a late move in the Derby and a trip to the Belmont.
Andromeda\'s Hero-- Man, I\'m tired of hearing how he galloped out past AA in the Ark Derby. But he could end up in tri/super at a big mutuel.
PLETCHER: IMO, Flower Alley and Coin Silver will only factor if the track is sloppy or muddy.
Bandini: Like his pop, FuPeg, he will attempt to win the Derby in his 6th lifetime start, off 3 sharp two turn races. Pletcher/John V will win Derby eventually-- maybe this year at 8/1?. Like High Fly and Noble Causeway (and 11 of the 12 previous Derby winners), he ran a Beyer of 100 or above in his final Derby prep.
LUKAS: Consolidator: Like Sun King, an enigmatic Bluegrass. Like Sun King, if he weren\'t trained by a Derby guru we probably wouldn\'t be looking. Hard to like off that one brilliant performance, but you don\'t want to have him beat you and have to listen to Lukas post race tell you he told you so. One of three in the race who has raced at CD (Greater Good, Don\'t Get Mad the others).
Going Wild: To me, a speed horse who shows less and less speed in each of his races. He seems to have peaked in his SA races, and like others have said, only Lukas would run an animal like this off the two awful runs in the Wood and the Lex. Done after 1/2.
Team \"Gimmick\"-- Bandini, High Fly, Consolidator, and possibly add the \"future 3\"-- SK, Noble Causeway, and Wilko. If there is an Oaks/ Derby double, Dance Away Capote with those 6, $20 doubles.
The shadow of Big Chalk is cast over the gimmicks I want to play: Sis City in the Oaks and Madcap Escapade in the Humana Distaff; I need some \"spice\" in the Derby and the Woodford Reserve turf race.
Post Edited (05-02-05 10:24)
Richebee,
No, I won\'t be sharing a box with High Roller. Something about a guy who asks for help/answers, then you give him those answers and he replies with condescension, instead of gratitude. I see from his last post, that he is another that always wins at the expense of people like us posters here. Personally, I am now terrified to bet money into a pool that Mike Brown bets into..... I may have to give up gambling out of fear and intimidation.......
Onto the more important questions about the Derby.
BAnd news for you. I agree with a lot of what you write and the horses haven\'t been kind to me in April. I even buy into your odds approximations.
I will be throwing Afleet Alex and Greeley\'s Galaxy out of my superfectas, to try and get value, since my list of horses in the first slot is pretty chalky. I will use Bellamy Road, Noble Causeway and Bandini in the 1st slot.
I love the Oaks/Derby double and the Pick-4 Culminating with the Derby also, but this year doesn\'t look as appetizing because of Sis city and Madcap Escapade, as you say. Don\'t know who is running against Madcap, but hard to imagine her getting beat after her last race at Keenland. As for Sis city, before her last race, she wasn\'t much faster than Summerly, in fact I believe both had tops of \"3\". But Summerly didn\'t fire and Sis City ran well (didn\'t see the T-Graph figure yet). Maybe Summerly bounces back (Didn\'t like Keenland?) and runs a big one and at least runs quick early, not letting Sis City get an early, easy lead. Bailey is on Summerly. I love the jockey change to Pat Valenzuela on Runway Model.
Runway Model and Summerly over Bellamy Road, Noble Causeway and Bandini.
richiebee wrote:
> West Palm for five days of golf with my pop, who I haven\'t seen
> in a year. Of course the rainy day contingency plans include
> the Kennel Club near the West Palm airport, one of my favorite
> simo destinations.
Golf with pop is better than a big trifecta.
> I have Wilko, Noble Causeway and Sun King in futures. If Wilko
> or SK win, its a rather nice score and it will be the first
> time I hit the future bet since it has been widely offered.
Good Luck
> Two unscientific gut feelings:
> 1) Bellamy either wins or is out of the Tri.
Agreed
> 2) An unheralded jockey/ trainer combo from the Delaware Valley
> will NOT win the roses for the second straight year.
Not as sure of that
> Two Derby gurus-- Lukas and Zito-- account for 7 of the 20
> entries in the race. Todd Pletcher, who will eventually
> probably end up with more Ky. Derbies than either of the gurus,
> will saddle 3. 10 out of 20 from 3 barns. The winner will
> emerge from these 10, IMO. I would be ashamed to make such an
> obvious prediction except that 9 out of these 10 could offer
Not a bad prediction.
>
> PLETCHER
> Bandini 8/1
> Flower Alley 30/1
> Coin Silver 40/1
>
> LUKAS
> Consolidator 25/1
> Going Wild 60/1
I think Bandini will be lower. The key of course is Bellamania
>supposedly Bellamania
> trained brilliantly at CD
I can\'t draw that conclusion, unless its based upon the Wood result.
> Hi Fly: Like recent Derby winners Grindstone, Monarchos, Funny
> Cide and Smarty, he will be attempting to win the Derby in his
> 7th start. Odds on in 5 of his 6 lifetime starts, my take on
> the Fla Derby is that Bailey had something left, that he could
> have held NC safe for another 1/8th mile.
I agree, the variable is perhaps laying close to a faster pace, but then Noble Causeway will have to get a trip too. I\'m not positive Noble Causeway is a stout a closer as all that as well.
> To me Bailey and Gary
> Stevens are the 2 jocks you want in a 10 furlong race with a 20
> horse field.
can\'t argue with that
> Sun King: The Bluegrass was enigmatic. His only stakes win was
> the Tampa Bay Derby. If trained by anyone other than Lukas or
> Zito, he probably would be every bit of 50/1, with good
> reason-- he\'s not as fast and not as classy as many of his
> competitors
I\'m not sold on Sun King either. At my peril I\'m currently considering him only for fourth.
> Andromeda\'s Hero-- Man, I\'m tired of hearing how he galloped
> out past AA in the Ark Derby. But he could end up in tri/super
> at a big mutuel.
The late slow gallop is what the DRF refers to as \"Little doubt a horse will relish 10 marks\"
> PLETCHER: IMO, Flower Alley and Coin Silver will only factor if
> the track is sloppy or muddy.
Not near as certain of that
> Bandini: Like his pop, FuPeg, he will attempt to win the Derby
> in his 6th lifetime start, off 3 sharp two turn races.
> Pletcher/John V will win Derby eventually-- maybe this year at
> 8/1?. Like High Fly and Noble Causeway (and 11 of the 12
> previous Derby winners), he ran a Beyer of 100 or above in his
> final Derby prep.
Bandini is the biggest variable in the race
> LUKAS: Consolidator: Like Sun King, an enigmatic Bluegrass.
> Like Sun King, if he weren\'t trained by a Derby guru we
> probably wouldn\'t be looking. Hard to like off that one
> brilliant performance, but you don\'t want to have him beat you
> and have to listen to Lukas post race tell you he told you so.
He\'s out. My guess is it started in the San Felipe. He was tardy early in the Blue Grass.
> Going Wild: To me, a speed horse who shows less and less speed
> in each of his races. He seems to have peaked in his SA races,
> and like others have said, only Lukas would run an animal like
> this off the two awful runs in the Wood and the Lex. Done after
> 1/2.
Maybe, but hes working good again. He doesnt fit the Lukas Derby winner profile and I wont bet him to win. Then again, if he looks great I may put a duce on him. I think he could get the lead. He wants the lead and once there I\'m not sure he\'s gonna let the others by easy.
Post Edited (05-02-05 11:35)