If you favor the notion that Bellamy may not be as fast the last large win has indicated, its still hard to argue against the notion that he finished well. Even on that propelling surface, it was a very energy efficient race. However, you have to factor that he was not pressed at any point in the race. (Some think its because he was so fast he blitzed his competition, but thats another issue.) But the question is what is his distance affinity in a race if he encounters pace challengers?, and to anwswer that maybe a glance at his pedigree is not a bad idea.
His Sire, Concerto, was definitely a very effective 9 mark horse and twice raced at 10 marks. Winning a stakes and finishing 2nd to highweighted Awesome Again by 3 lengths, in a Grade II.
http://breeding.bloodhorse.com/newsronline/pdfs/concerto.pdf
As a sire he\'s been very popular in Venezuela and he does have a Grade I winner there. In the United States his sire record is spotty until Bellamy Road, but he is a relatively young sire.
I can\'t conclude his sire results are any reason to be further inclined to believe he\'s about to humble the Kentucky Derby. But what of his Dam side? The first three dams direct tail female are unremarkable. Its not until you go all the way back to Arabian Dancer and Ten Cents a Dance that the pedigree makes your eyebrows raise. The reason is theres some very nice Phipps blood that far back and some exceptional producer records. For me however, its a little remote.
http://www.pedigreequery.com/bellamy+road
Deputed Testamony did win the Preakness and Haskell and he was a bay like Bellamy, (who is a dark one), so my take is that Bellamy is favoring his female family a little more as his pop was a chestnut. Additionally, Deputed liked to scoot if my memory serves and that seems to be Bellamy\'s modus operandi. Deputed has a good racehorse and a very useful Maryland sire, but he\'s not come up with anything that could really go on by my unscientific analysis. Bellamy could be taking after his grand dad and reaching back for some of that remote Phipps blood also I suppose. It could also be 10 marks are going to be a challenge under pressure. It looked easy in the Wood for a reason. It was.
Post Edited (05-01-05 19:10)
CtC -
In addition to running in the two 10 furlong races you mention, Concerto finished up the track in the 1997 Derby. His sheet is in the archives.
I know that I am showing a bit of my age when I refer to some old time Derby winners but the last time so and so beat nothing, and his pedigree was not suitable, and he was never pressured at any point in his races, his name was SEATTLE SLEW.
Now BELLAMY can end up with the same amount of fame as WALT BELLAMY, but he can also be a star in the making. Not sure anyone else in this field has that kind of potential at this point in time.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
I\'m not sure you\'re not right about the weak competition Slew faced as a 3YO Jbelf. Seattle Slew caught a pretty weak Derby field. I don\'t think anything hardly went on and accomplished much after that. A horse named Jatski won the Travers after missing the Derby that year.
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2005/derby_history/derby_charts/years/1977.html
Slew also had a more extensive 2 YO campaign and was undefeated when he won the Derby.
I think the difference is Slew pretty much had proven he could take a pace challenge. You\'re gambling (at short odds) this other guy can. Additionally, theres competition this year that Slew didn\'t have to face. Bellamania is a decent horse, but he\'s not alone.
Zito\'s getting cocky on those two wins. I understand that and this isn\'t an Arazi coming in on one race and a knee procedure. However, I think hes probably misconstrued the Wood. What if its a Beyer 110 or 112 rather than a 120? I\'m not enamored with the pace scenario or this horses workouts at Churchill. I just think the value is beating him is all. He\'s gonna tie up a lot of money.
On the other hand, hes shown enough to prove hes a good horse and he could do it. Goldberg is a favorites kind of bettor. He did pick FuPig to win the Derby. Even a blind squirrel gets lucky now and then, especially backing favorites. If he goes off at 4-1 or 9-2 maybe I reconsider.
ctc: Please don\'t come on the forum on Saturday night if BR gets beat and tell us how you took a stand against the horse from day 1 and how everyone else thought he was a superhorse. Every post I see from you about this horse says he has all these question marks but on the other hand he is a good horse and \"he could do it.\" If he loses you will say \"I took a stand\" and if he wins you will say \"I thought pace pressure would get to him\" BUT I did think he was a good horse and could win the race. This same statement can be made with regard to any of the horses who figure to be on or near the lead. If you are going to take a stand then do it.
Gowand,
Chuckles has already drafted two separate posts for Saturday night. One, if Bellamy wins the race, the other if he loses.
He can just cut, paste and send, right after the race is over.
:)
A friend of mine at Churchill Downs advised me that many horsemen on the backside at CD are at a total loss as to what Richey is doing with his training regimen for Afleet Alex.Richey is being second guessed all over the place. AA is not a robust horse and has not physically matured that much from last year.
The \"wise guys\" are going to toss AA, I hear, based on the Richey training regimen.It\'s hard to imagine a trainer being that wrong about a horse he has trained from day one.Tough decision for me, I know this horse can really run(as you all do)
Bellamy is a dangerous horse on the front end. Theres been a lot like him. Spend a Buck, Slew City Slew, King Glorious, Love of Mom. I just don\'t think he\'s gonna be successful in the scenario for a number of reasons.
My bet will be to beat him. If he crawls up to 4-1/9-2, I may put him for the minimum on top of a select group to cover. But I won\'t consider that winning the Derby and won\'t count it in my overall statistics. I\'ll count my major play as my Derby bet.
Thats a stand. If you think 2 horses have a 60% and 20% chance to win respectively is it error to cover with the one you discount? I don\'t think so.
CTC-- see if you can make a post without using the words \"I\", \"me\", etc., more than once. If you want a model for serious, intelligent posts that are informative and don\'t antagonize everybody, do a search for \"Derby 1592\".
Bellamy is a dangerous horse on the front end. Theres been a lot like him. Spend a Buck, Slew City Slew, King Glorious, Love of Mom. He may not be successful in the scenario for a number of reasons.
The logical bet is to beat him. If he crawls up to 4-1/9-2, It may be logical to key him for the minimum on top of a select group to cover. But no one would consider a cover bet winning the Derby and it would be disingenuous to count in in overall statistics. The major play is the play you spend the most money on. That is a handicapper\'s Derby bet.
Thats a stand. If a handicapper thinks there are 2 horses that have a 60% and 20% chance to win respectively is it error to cover with the one he/she discounts? What do you think?
ctmc,
you just sucked up to the soup nazi and from here on the \'m\' will no longer appear in your title.
PARTYpokerON !
lol
\"Soup Nazi\"?
lyao
It would appear that term has made itself known somewhere in the recent past. A new chain of restaurants the diners may think.
TGJB likes the third person. Posters should not consider that a terrible imposition. Besides, to properly award a title like magnificent, a handicapper should first have to win 4 Derbies in a row.
Bellamy Road\'s 1st career start 8/3 at Delaware Park he was 4th 2.5 lengths behind after the opening quarter mile, he took over pretty quickly and won easily. Obviously the competition wasn\'t there and maybe he had a bad start which placed him 4th early. But he did not have the lead that day and still won easy. I\'m not 100% sure he can\'t rate off of SC in the Derby if he has to.
Holy55 wrote:
> Bellamy Road\'s 1st career start 8/3 at Delaware Park he was 4th
> 2.5 lengths behind after the opening quarter mile, he took over
> pretty quickly and won easily. Obviously the competition wasn\'t
> there and maybe he had a bad start which placed him 4th early.
> But he did not have the lead that day and still won easy. I\'m
> not 100% sure he can\'t rate off of SC in the Derby if he has
> to.
Holy, one way of looking at that first race might be that it was Bellamania\'s first and he wasn\'t ready for the break. Another might be that he is not a first class quick stepping horse and it took him 4 marks in .46 to acquire the lead. (He is 17 hands) In every race thereafter he has rocketed to the front. Granted they were longer distances and he has broken from very good holes to acquire the lead in all those subsequent races.
Factoring Bellamania\'s ability to rate in this race is a big part of the puzzle and you could be correct that he finds himself unable to rate off the speed and perhaps unable to catch them.
I have tapes of his GPrace and the Wood.He does not possess \"quick\"speed out of the gate. He\'s a big long striding horse who seems to need a few strides before getting settled into his very smooth rythm.He doesn\'t look like rank speed at all.
Miff,
Agreed completely. I have watched and re-watched the GP race and the Wood. He never looked rank in either race. At one point early in the GP race the other favorite came up next to him and pressed him, but he didn\'t seem to accelerate or act rank, but rather kept at his normal pace.
But he will probably be behind at least one horse in the Derby and I think Chuckles is right in that how he reacts to that is part of the puzzle this year. It would seem loigcal to build a small premium into the price you are willing to accept on Bellamy to factor in the chance that he may not want to run from off another horse.
ctc,
your waddling again...you self proclaimed the title on yourself!..look it up it\'s in the archives
the amount of information you bring forward and your linkups...truly breath taking...but alas the \'m\' must be removed.
No he\'s most certainly not \"rank speed\", however, he has caught some very kind pace scenarios. If he\'s left alone to do his thing, hes very happy on the lead. It may be pressure unravels him. It may have in the past. He\'s gonna see a big crowd and in all likelihood the toughest pace scenario hes ever come across. Its debateable whether he\'s been the best working horse at Churchill. (Some think he hasn\'t worked there particularly well as compared to the pre Wood work.) Granted he had to win that Wood to get in the Derby. And then there is the bounce angle in regard to the Wood effort.
Alot depends upon how a handicapper evaluates loose on the lead wins. Some give more weight to a win like Bandini\'s last.
CTC-- let me get this straight. You think someone is 60% to win this race, and someone else is 20%?
Go over to the nyra site and watch the Wood. Bellamy was being pushed along by Going Wild then Scrappy T for 5f when BR just dusted them off.
That was a strong gallop out after the wire also.
I firmly believe BR is an all or nothing proposition. Either wins easily or he\'s off the board all together.
btw: plenty of angst, gnashing of teeth over BR\'s work on 4/21 in 1.02.8.
How many were in 58 or 59 and change......none
How many were 1.00 and change......uhhh none.
The bullet for the day 1.01.2, not a very glib surface.
BR\'s work just a leg stretcher, imo.
Jim,
I am thinking that the result of the Derby may be obvious(like I felt last year).We have in BR,arguably, the fastest three year old ever, rested,training very well and in the care of a proven 3yr classic trainer. For me, that\'s a lot, the price may suck.
If he continues to train well up to Saturday, draws ok and looks good parading, I\'ll probably step out good if he\'s 4 to 1 or better and use him first and second in the exotics.
I\'m a little sentimentally challenged this year because the owner of Noble Causeway is a friend of mine and I may pass and just root Len home.With so many fast fig horses going in, we all may be over analyzing the race looking for bombs.
CtC,
I speak to two people every day at CD.BR looks \"monstrous\" according to them. Curious, where did you get the \"knocks\" on BR\'s training from?
miff, someone said the expert horse watchers thought Smarty J\'s coat was looking ragged in his Keeneland works last year. He was working up a storm during that time per the posted works. The times were brilliant.
Who here has had a chance to watch Bellamania work? Nevertheless, they\'ve raved about his works at Churchill downs, but the times are not outstanding, regardless of \"Finally\" being pulled up. His best work at Churchill was April 3rd prior to the Wood. That 1.02.3 was not stellar.
If you go to Steve Haskins article about Bandini\'s last work he fawns all over him. But he does the same for many horses working that day.
http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=27920
His words yesterday about Bellamania\'s last work were \"If you liked him, this work was impressive and won\'t discourage you.\" By all accounts it was a 1.00.2 He galloped out in 1.28 and 1.44 Unless you\'re there you can\'t see them, but figures and times aren\'t subjective. They tell their own story and if you use figures enough you can project the imagery without seeing. Theres better working horses at Churchill Downs.
TGJB, saying this in the third person is difficult, but there appears to be a horse in this field advantaged sufficiently by the variables (post excepted, track bias not considered) to win this race over half the time it is run. Figures, Pace, Form and likely position evaluated. The other horse that has a big chance is Bellamy on the probability that Tgraph is correct about the Wood and that he could freak and overcome the obstacles. The rest of the possible winners (5) have an estimated aggregate 20% chance. 13 horses have been eliminated as possible winners.
It may not hold up. Some seem to recall a statement in a recent ROTW that Between Consolidator and High Limit they aggregated a 75% chance to win the race. Because they didn\'t that doesn\'t mean they weren\'t well positioned to do so.
Jimbo the favorite in the GP race you were talking about was Dearest Mon. I was there in person that day and BR just ran Dearest Mon into the ground before they even hit the turn. Dearest Mon was a well regarded colt at the time breaking his maiden against Noble Causeway by 3 lengths. I think the play against is AA not BR, he was slow early and pushed extensively in the stretch. Now if he runs a similar race in the Derby he will have to make up at least 15 lengths, traffic problems and a questionable jock.
Miff,
You could be right about this being an \"obvious\" type of year. I came away from the Wood overwhelmed and made a sizable bet in the futures taking 8.5 to 1 on \"any horse to win the triple crown\". I wanted to bet Bellamy to win the Derby then, but it was too late to get value. I posted here about that triple crown bet, saying it was one way to get value, if Bellamy really is a standout. Since then, I have been trying to find excuses to look for value in the Derby, but Bellamy may just be too good. Interesting that you mention Noble Causeway, he is the horse I am trying to convince myself to bet. I like his breeding, running style and think he could move up on Derby day. I loved his Florida Derby, it was \"Real Quiet-like\" to me.
Wrongly,
Agreed. AA could be a play-against. Greeley\'s Galaxy for me is also a \"play against\".
Chuckles,
You do some serious research and post insightful comments about half the time. But man, the other half are ridiculous. Somebody being 60% to win this race and somebody else being 20%. That might rank as the most ridiculous \"handicapping\" statement ever posted here.......
No offense intended.
I really have a hard time throwing AA out based not only on the numbers but also on running style. Although I am worried about the jock, AA has shown me a great ability to run covered up by horses and not be intimidated despite his size. He actually seems to relish running in traffic which is an obvious plus in a field of this size. He has shown the ability to run big despite being taken all over the track by Rose in a number of starts. I don\'t think he needs a great trip to run in the exacta.
Well, it might be worth the time to review Bellamania\'s races on video. Some aren\'t the best trip handicappers but in the Lanes End Futurity who believes that Bellamy hustled for a lead, faced an early challenge, held it safe and caved when facing a second and more significant challenge? Almost like since he wasn\'t leading the race was over? An immediate fold once headed from behind.
There was more in the Wood and the horse does have pretty good early foot, especially when hes leaning in on his only competition in the race. He also runs with his head a little high and a little too much head movement, especially under pressure. Additionally his stride is nice left alone, but its nowhere near as large as some have opined.
The way to beat this horse is test him early and challenge him late. In the Lanes end the same horse did it. There just wasn\'t sufficient quality to do that in his last two races.
Additionally, High Limit wasn\'t as ragged at the end of the Bluegrass as he first appeared. He moved to the inside after heading Spanish Chestnut and that may not have been the wisest move. While there he jumped shadows at least twice and certainly looks to have broken his momentum. Bandini on the other hand stayed three wide throughout and was probably advantaged by the anti rail bias. Post wire it certainly appeared that Sun King had the best energy, but Bandini is reported to be a quick stopper after the work is done.
Post Edited (05-02-05 23:26)
Chuckles,
I assume you have heard/read that Bellamy got hurt in the Lanes End. I guess you don\'t believe that and think that he got run into the ground?
I usually don\'t buy the \"excuse injuries\", but based on evidence before and after, this one looks like it could be legit. They did lay him up after the race and hold him out until late this spring. Hence the two preps.
\"I assume you have heard/read that Bellamy got hurt in the Lanes End. I guess you don\'t believe that and think that he got run into the ground? \"
I asked about this a few weeks ago and no one responded.
Where did you read that?
I actually think an injury in that race increases the probability that this horse could be something special instead of a one hit wonder.
He took a funny step after he was headed. They said he was injured in the race? Depending on the severity of it, sure it can affect performance. Zito was saying he thinks this horse can rate, which tends to indicate he can\'t and it could be strategy so the others dont get right on the gas so he can. Biancone should instruct his jockey to try and bury them with a quick burst. Spanish Chestnut is liable to be a big load for Bellmany, because he ran almost directly into the Bias in the Bluegrass and hung around for some time.
An injury could also mean hes prone to overextend himself in a jam. This horse does not move especially pretty.
Post Edited (05-02-05 23:37)
CH and CtC,
Didn\'t see your post on that CH. Yes, I read it on drf.com and also heard Zito talk about (although Dickinson was the trainer at the time).
I don\'t think it was a bad step after he was headed. The horse was late to come back this year unintentionally, because he needed the time to recover. Sounds like more than a bad step.
>>He took a funny step after he was headed
Funny like ha-ha? Funny like a Clown? How the f*** was he funny? Does he make you laugh, is he here to amuse you? You said it! How the f*** is he funny? No, no. He\'s a big boy! How the f*** was he funny?
Blind Switch,
You\'re a \"goodfella\"
If they don\'t get BR to 6F in 1:10 and change, he will wire \'em; otherwise, I like a Sun King, Don\'t Get Mad, Bandini and Afleet Alex superfecta!