i made an early derby line. my line is (first). wsex.com line is [second]. things will change once posts are drawn and i update my track model for cd. i generally don\'t play ky tracks, so my model is a little generic.
afleet alex (11/1) [9/2]
andromedas hero (70/1) [40/1]
bandini (15/1) [5/1]
bellamy road (5/1) [8/5]
buzzards bay (25/1) [30/1]
closing arguement (90/1) [30/1]
coin silver (25/1) [25/1]
consolidator (60/1) [20/1]
don\'t get mad (35/1) [15/1]
flower alley (15/1) [30/1]
giacomo (30/1) [22/1]
going wild (99/1) [15/1]
greater good (60/1) [25/1]
greeley\'s galaxy (15/1) [17/1]
high fly (9/1) [8/1]
high limit (6/1) [10/1]
noble causeway (25/1) [13/1]
sort it out (80/1) [35/1]
spanish chestnut (99/1) [-]
sun king (50/1) [17/1]
wilko (35/1) [16/1]
based on that, i would be looking at:
high limit
flower alley
Don\'t bet your lunch money......
Neither you nor the website know how to make an odds line.
How much of Afleet Alex are you willing to take at 11-1? LOL
Your top 8 account for 100% of the pool, try again!
Gvido and Wrongly -
Not to speak for mikemd, but I think he\'s saying what he\'ll take for odds, not what he\'ll give. It\'s based on the odds he would require to expect to get 100% of his money back over the long haul. A track line would build in the takeout, so the expected return would be roughly 85%. Based on what I think he\'s doing (which is in principle what I do, but I require a 125% return when I make my odds line), mikemd\'s line foots perfectly.
wrongly,
take another look. my line is on the left. it\'s a 100% line. the line on the right is from wsex.com. it obviously is not a 100% line. that\'s how they make money. but, you would have known that if you read the post.
gvido,
for afleet alex to be a cinch, he would have to be 15/1 on my line. i think i had him 15/1 for his last race and don\'t get mad at 15/1 for the race on sunday. both ran pretty good for 15/1. :-)
[edited to remove hastiness]
Post Edited (05-01-05 15:07)