Bobby Frankel is a man who has used speed figures for many years. Whether you like him or not, everyone must agree he has used the sheets successfully. More successfully, I would venture to say, than anyone reading this post. He believes that the Derby may be more wide-open than most. Mr. Frankel feels that the probable favorites for the Derby may be ready to bounce.
The \"bounce\" is, as far as I can see, the Swiss Army Knife of excuses. A horse could run a big number and break a leg after stepping in a hole in his next start. Some would still attribute the losing effort to the bounce. If a horse wins after a big effort, his subsequent win would be viewed as obvious (after all he ran a big top). If he loses, he bounced after his top. Right?
I have read on this site that its a 50/50 proposition that each of the big top favorites may bounce. If this is the case, wouldn\'t it make sense to select a horse with a lesser number who is moving in the right direction and will be a price? Who do you think fits this paradigm?
Post Edited (04-30-05 19:45)
Hard for me to take anything Frankel says to the press.
This is the man who had the gall to say he wasn\'t aware that High Limit had early speed.
The guy takes paranoia and superstition to new levels.
1-- Frankel is a guy who has been succesful as a trainer, and a guy who has a rudimentary idea of how to use sheets-- the reasons he has been successful predate his use of sheets by several decades, and include having an unbelievable array of well bred horses who don\'t start their careers with him. In terms of using sheets to buy and manage horses I have been far more successful than he has, especially considering the total capital investment my clients have spent on horses is a small percentage of what his clients spend in one year. We\'re up to 68 horses that have won about 150 stakes for our clients, on a budget.
2-- People overuse the term bounce, but that does not mean that horses don\'t bounce-- it\'s all percentages, which is why we publish the Thoro-Pattern.
3-- We used to look for horses moving forward in the Derby, but training patterns have changed. If you take a look at last year\'s seminar, available on this site, you will see I discussed the small percentage of Derby starters that have run new tops over the last few years. I\'ll be talking about which of the fast horses are least likely to bounce and why in this year\'s seminar, and which of the horses in range are most likely to go forward.
When will this be available?
The seminar will be available Wednesday night.
TGJB:
I certainly didn\'t mean to disparage your accomplishments when I drafted my post. I simply didn\'t know that Frankel has only a \"rudimentary idea\" on how to use the sheets. Imagine how successful he could become if he develops real expertise.
I look forward to your analysis of who is most likely not to bounce in the Derby. I have come to appreciate your insights into the game. Nevertheless, I would respectfully submit that a low price horse who has, on an unrefined statistical basis, a 50/50 chance to regress is not a good bet. While recognizing that 3-4 of the lowest price horses in the race could prove me wrong, I will be looking elsewhere for value. That is not to say, however, that any success I may have may be attributed to using value plays underneath one or more of the horses you happen to select.
First of all, as far as the Derby Trial goes, ouch indeed.
Albany (some of my best friends are from Albany)-- what Frankel has jumped on, probably because it reinforced opinions he already had, is the sheets concept of spacing races, especially off efforts. He also has used Ragozin for some private buys, most of which he has moved up. Ahem.
Frankel is a smart guy, and he presumably has used sheets as a way to keep his horses running against slower horses when possible, but when you are dealing with top horses, some spots are pre-ordained. How you get there is not.
Your thinking about fast horses bouncing is what defined my play last year. I said that the winner would almost certainly come from a group of 4 horses (two of which ran 1-2), but I didn\'t use SJ because I thought he would go back from the two big negative efforts, and was relatively short. This year the ones off big numbers are coming in with very unusual aspects-- extra rest, no 2yo tops, etc. Very tough race.
I\'m going home.
davidrex wrote:
>
> Hard for me to take anything Frankel says to the press.
>
> This is the man who had the gall to say he wasn\'t aware
> that High Limit had early speed.
>
> The guy takes paranoia and superstition to new levels.
I\"m in full agreement with Davidrex, Frankel quotes are to be analyzed not taking to heart as his abiding convictions. Hes just not credible. He might be right on the bounce issue in this years Derby. Of course he says his horses dont bounce...lol