Here\'s are the Thoro-Graph sheets for the Wood Memorial field.
http://www.thorograph.com/hold/wood2005.pdf
thx Alan, i\'ll lay the floating grid over it and see what it says.
Thanks Alan.
With each race that gets run theWood figures keep holding up. The only thing that isn\'t are the constant arguments to the contrary.....
Also in lew of how well Galloping Grocer ran next out have you considered that maybe the Wood figure wasn\'t fast enough.
Looking forward to your response.
Silver Charm wrote:
> With each race that gets run theWood figures keep holding up.
I\'m lost. How does a 6.5 length swing indicate the Wood numbers are holding up? Scrappy got 3 pds in a one turn race. What it demonstrates to me is that Scrappy did not run his race in the Wood and a turd merchant horse that has been over-rated from the inception lucked into picking up the pieces because no one showed up.
> Also in lew of how well Galloping Grocer ran next out have you
> considered that maybe the Wood figure wasn\'t fast enough.
>
Certainly, why not? Lets say Scrappy has been pairing 2\'s all along and Survivalist knocked down a 1 in the Wood and give Bellamy Road a Negative 8 and Crown him the Fastest Horse of All Time. He\'s close enough now. If we give Bellamy a negative 8 doesnt it look pretty good as far as graphing the rest of the field with the possible exception of Survivalist? HEY!!!...why are we always back factoring this race on this horse?
>why are we always back factoring this race on this horse?
Because this race is off the charts. Period
See post below immediately after race.
Re: Aqueduct-Split Variants??
Author: Silver Charm
Date: 04-09-05 19:11
Negative 10
Well, all i can say is i wish we could be sure he didn\'t bounce in the Derby, but i\'ll settle for this: Theres some pretty good horses out there this year and we\'ll have enough races to evaluate him on if they keep him in top company (Which he hasnt even sniffed yet) I do think hes got a nice turn of foot, but he is a headstrong S.O.B. and thats the problem.
You are totally correct and I said all those same things about Spend a Buc.
The problem was Spend a Buck dodged top company after the Derby. He almost got beat by Creme Fraiche at a distance Creme wasn\'t as good at.
I will grant BR is a Spend a Buck/King Glorious type. The difference is theres lots of Eternal Princes in the Derby.
Post Edited (04-30-05 23:25)
Now Spanish Chestnut is in... who will be up on the lead with Greely\'s Galaxy, Bellamy Road, and High Limit... with the forgotten solid High Fly waiting for them all to collapse and inhaling them before they field hits the quarter pole.
Who\'s going to run him down?
ezgoer89 wrote:
> Now Spanish Chestnut is in... who will be up on the lead with
> Greely\'s Galaxy, Bellamy Road, and High Limit...
Unless he breaks poorly I would anticipate Spanish Chestnut winging on the lead, but don\'t ignore the work Going Wild just turned in. The press is distracted with Bellamania.
> forgotten solid High Fly waiting for them all to collapse and
> inhaling them before they field hits the quarter pole.
A possible result. Or if Bellamania is legit its possible his second challenge could come from High Fly with about 2 marks to go.
> Who\'s going to run him down?
Theres a few that will take third crack.
Now to the point. The DRF has come out and stated that the two turn variant Wood day was a \"10\". Thats very interesting. Lets do a little comparison with Don Six, who admittedly is a good horse. The Aqueduct track record at 6 marks is 1.07.2
Don six had never before tied a track record. He\'d only come a second away from 3 year old bests at the distance. In his previous race at Aqueduct, (The Poumonok)-
(LATER: I lost track of the fact this race was on the INNERTUBE so the variant comparison is not relevant. I still think the little review sheds some light on the track speed Wood Day)
,Don Six ran a Negative 4.1 at six marks. The raw time was
.22 .44.4 1.08.4
He won by 2 lengths on a DRF 18 variant.
Wood Day in the 7 furlong Carter, Don Six ran the following fractions attemtping to pace for 7 marks:
21.2, 43.1, 1:07.2, 1:21
Essentially, Don Six tied the track record for 6 marks. (Whats very interesting is Medalist and Forest Danger were right there and get credit for essentially the same 1.07.2 fraction.) But back to Don Six, who wants to bet the difference between a 18 variant and a 10 variant is not 9 lengths at 4 marks and 8 lengths in track record time at 6 marks in a 7 furlong race?
Caveat, (DRF may have made the sprint variant lower. I am not sure of that.)
Essentially, we had four track records Wood Day. One in the Wood. Three in the Carter and don\'t forget how the SNW1X New York Bred Slow Rats moved:
22.73, 45.47, 1:10.51, 1:37.50
Smoooookkkkkin
Post Edited (05-02-05 09:31)
hi jerry,
was ghostzapper a minus 6 in the breeders cup?
or is bellamy road now the fastest of all time?
i remember left bank got a -4 in 1999.
High Roller,
Ghostzapper was NOT a 6 in the Breeders cup, but he was a \"-6\" in the Iselin at Monmouth, which he paired up in the Woodward against Saint Liam going 1 1/8.
But GZ is the fastest horse of all time on T-Graph.
Sorry about answering for JB, but those figures have been publicized on this board a few times now, I don\'t think I am giving anything away.
give what away? what a foolish statement, this is a discussion board
You are welcome Mike. What a jerk.
oh yeah, i\'ll keep the minus 6 on ghostzapper a secret, this way he will be 2/5 instead of 1/5 in his next race.
the mindless stupidity on these discussion boards sometimes really sadly exposes the state of mankind.luckily these same fools also bet on horses, therefore allowing me to take it.
Mike,
Consider yourself the poster child for the \"mindless stupidity on these discussion boards\".
Don\'t read or post if you don\'t like the discussions.
Moron.
Chuckles The Clown
The sprint variant at Aqu Wood Day was 8. IMO split variants are indefensible.
If you\'re going to use Don Six as a yardstick, you can\'t overlook the fact that he was taken over this year by Scott Lake. He\'s got a long history of moving horses up. And he definitely moved this horse up.
Jimbo,
thanks for having answer to High Roller\'s INQUIRY into gz\'s # and when it occured.
Unfortunetly aFOUL was commited in your last paragraph in deep stretch.
After reviewing the tapes...the result will stand,but both parties will be ordered to attend anger management unless public apologies are to appear on this board within 24 hours.
PARTYpokerON !
No vested interest here, but Jimbo is ok here. His last paragraph is completely innocent. All he said was, he didn\'t think JB would mind divulging the #. High Roller then developed a bug in his but.
If I\'m not mistaken the Carter was the Fourth race under Dutrow:
Graveshead
Paoumonok
General George
Carter
Don Six did not approach track record speed in the other 3 despite running a negative 4.1 in the Paumonok. My point being the track on Wood Day was blistering by the 8th, 9th and probably 10th races. Signicantly two other horses matched the track record for 6 marks in the Carter. What this demonstrates to me is that the Wood field utterly collapsed. Survivalist ran a 1.50.66 which is not a bad time most days. Wood day it was abysmal.
The problem with Wood Day in my opinion is that the other races lacked quality with the exception of Foggy\'s race. He did run a 1.21.1 change is my recollection. But i\'m not altogether sure it was his best race. I think he may have regressed in it.
I think Bellamy ran a very good Wood and is a horse to be feared. He may have run a negative 5. But I could see it being a negative 1 too. Maybe its somewhere in between. Silver Charm thinks its a Negative 10, so its a matter of perspective until May 7th.
I have to admit to one significant oversight in my previous post. I was comparing the main to the inner and you can\'t do that. I lost track of the shift from the inner. Still I think theres some merit to the track speed review. The innertube track record is 1.07.4, Don Six ran to within a second of it.
Post Edited (05-02-05 09:39)
Don Six is trained by Scott Lake. But the same point would apply if it were Dutrow. The horse would move up.
I don\'t disagree with your point by the way. People around here are fixated on Bellamy Road\'s Wood. I submit that Consolidator\'s San Felipe is the superior race (of all this years preps).
Smarty had the best prep last year (The Rebel). War Emblem had the best prep in 2002 (Illinois Derby).
Bally Ache wrote:
> Don Six is trained by Scott Lake. But the same point would
> apply if it were Dutrow. The horse would move up.
Alzheimers set in big time for me on this thread...lol In all candor I lump those two together, like you said they are fellow travelers.
The thing is though TFigs had Smarty and War Emblem as having run top Preps. They don\'t have Consolidator\'s San Felipe as a top figure prep. I could be wrong, but I think they gave him a 1 for it. I did not break the track down for the day so I can\'t comment. What makes you think that race is better than a 1? I know it was fast. I think they went 8.5 in 1:40 which is scalding raw time.
You answered your own question. The horse ran a 1:40 flat 1 1/16 in FEB. Don\'t overlook the two month time differential, these are young horses.
Obviously both tracks were lightning fast on the days in question. Can anyone say with certainty which was faster? All things being equal (which they never are), a 1 1/16 in 1;40 flat is superior to 1 1/8 in 1:47.
If you assume that SA is always much faster than AQU then you won\'t buy this. Which brings us back to your point of how fast AQU was on Wood Day.
I\'ll have to acquire the San Felipe charts and break the day down. You\'re raw time points are noted.
Chuck:
You should know better than that. Events as someone equaling/close to a track record while racing at a difeerent distance happens quite often. In the Carter [7f] there was an extra wind aided 1/8th down the backstretch before they hit the 6f juncture.
I thought you were smarter than that, obviously I was mistaken.
GZ did not get a neg 6 in the BC, and BR is not the fastest of all time. GZ did run two neg 6s before the BC, and BR is the fastest 3yo of all time-- for one race. Left Bank ran neg 3 in 2001, neg 4 in 2002.
Anybody know when Pletcher started using Allday?
gvido wrote:
> Chuck:
>
> You should know better than that. Events as someone
> equaling/close to a track record while racing at a difeerent
> distance happens quite often. In the Carter [7f] there was an
> extra wind aided 1/8th down the backstretch before they hit the
> 6f juncture.
>
> I thought you were smarter than that, obviously I was mistaken.
>
Some handicappers pay very close attention to internal fractions and they can reveal great information and betting angles at times. The head wind the quality April 9th Aqueduct runners faced doesn\'t look especially significant to some on the closing fractions. A 1.20.2 is smokin.
If a horse ran a faster six marks in a route than he had ever before in a six mark sprint and collapsed late beaten 14 lengths. All other varibles being equal, how would a handicapper evaluate his chances of running a similar six mark figure turning back next to a six furlong sprint?
If there was a wind affecting the track Wood day, can you be sure it affected the two turn part of the track the same way it affected the one turn part of it? In other words DRF split the variants: 08 for sprints, 10 for routes (factoring, among other conditional races, New York Bred Slow Rats and 10 mark form shifters.) Do you think they got it right?