The Breeders Cup/ESPN deal is very big-- I had a friend at the NTRA who was pushing this for a long time. ESPN has the opportunity and incentive to promote the hell out of this, and educate players along the way.
Next week marks the beginning of the first serious attempts to deal with the drug issue, on two fronts. The 6 hour detention period in New York may or may not be enough, and the super-tests in Kentucky are only for the graded races for now, but many of us will be watching the results of races next week with interest. Especially those of us thinking about betting on or against horses in the Oaks and Derby.
You say this \"but many of us will be watching the results of races next week with interest\" meaning?? What you think Bobby F or whoever else is going to go cold and their horses stop running well?? From what I\'ve always heard on this board is their horses don\'t run very well anyways or in the BC. Why are people not tallking bad about Nick Z. if this was some other trainer than they thought was using, they would be all on them. I don\'t know if you can tell, by wacthing the races next week, you would have to look at each horse on a case by case sheet reading, right??
I\'m not getting into naming names, but yes, I\'ll be looking to see how the horses of certain trainers are running at Belmont, and in the graded stakes at CD. Not whether they are winning, how they are running relative to their previous figures.
Seems like there is a long list for these so-called move-up trainers, about how many do you plan on wacthing??
Has there been any talk regarding Zito perhaps finding a new vet this year. He was good last year as well, but everything he\'s touched til the Bluegrass looked pretty impressive.
that trainers at the NYRA tracks are not very cool to the idea that ONLY NY State vets can give the LASIX injections 4 hours pre-race.Not their own personal vet! What\'s the problem? Right? Seems as a way to keep the crooked vets out right?
Well each horse on lasix is given a very individual dose of the medication, be it 2 cc, 4 cc, to to 12 cc\'s pre race. I have been told that the NYRA vets are going to give EVERY HORSE the full 12 units.
More lasix than a horse is used too is detrimental I\'ve been told. It sedates horses...does anybody else have any imput on this? The NYRA site and press releases DO NOT mention this but my trainer at Belmont told me about this last week after we sent some horses out of state and had to let the track vet there give the lasix...and our horses ran like they were asleep! :(
CtC,
You know, with those comments by Shug, it may be possible that Survivalist ran an \"8\" and not a \"4\" in the Wood, in which case Bellamy Road didn\'t run a negative 5.
What do you think?
:)
I think you\'re trying to goad me into a controversy...lol
I don\'t know with certainty. In all candor I don\'t think Bellamy ran quite as fast as TGraph currently has him factored. But TGraph isnt the only one, Beyer and Sheets have him fast too.
I did see a traditional variant breakdown by BRIS and they had Survivalist off 6 lengths in the Wood from his prior. If Bris is right it will be rare time they catch a call over TGraph.
My deduction is the Wood collapsed and projection isn\'t feasible. A variant can\'t be accurately calculated on the two turn races either in my estimation. (As BRIS almost certainly attempted) If Bellamy ran Zed/Zed hes still dangerous. If he ran Zed/-5 hes the fastest 3 year old ever, but he could bounce.
Its a marvelous Derby. A handicapping extravaganza.
\"Well each horse on lasix is given a very individual dose of the medication, be it 2 cc, 4 cc, to to 12 cc\'s pre race. I have been told that the NYRA vets are going to give EVERY HORSE the full 12 units.\"
Interesting. Is there some rule that mandates a set dosage? If so, it sounds like it wasn\'t being followed, if not, then how can NYRA impose the 12 cc\'s?
In any case, if all that\'s true, it will create havoc with many form cycles.
Chuckles,
The Horse Just tied Riva Ridges (do you remember how good that horse was?) track Record that day. The record has been around since 71. It\'s ok to be a contrarian but this one is pretty basic if you ask me. The rest of the horses ran the \"normal\" race and Bellamy Freaked. I think you are very wrong this time.
Obviously you don\'t have to Bet Bellamy for many reasons but I think Jerry has the race right.
NC Tony
No I don\'t remember Riva Ridge. I thought his 3 year old year was 1972 though, so if his track record was from 1971 it must have been set as a 2yr old in the Nashua or something, but thats not really relevant. I undertand your point. \"If he tied a track record on a major track he must have run really fast\". Thats generally true, I just dont think it was as true Wood Day. Don Six is a fast horse, but he tied a six furlong mark that day as well.
But lets assume you understand that Survivalist is the \"pair key\" upon which Bellamy\'s big number is calculated from and you believe he paired. What you have then is Bellamy with a -5, now what?
Lets assume he draws post 7, what do you do with him? Lets assume further Afleet Alex goes off the favorite at 7-2 with Bellamy 4-1 and Bandini 6-1. Apparently he can bounce 8 lengths and still be competitive right? Whats his projected number in the circumtances and do you think it will win?
Chuckles,
For the record, I have heard from a Rags user that Jerry has the Wood Faster than Len does, and Len thinks T-Graph is wrong about the race (surprising that Len would think this?) I think Rags has Bellamy\'s Wood the same speed as Bandini\'s Bluegrass, whereas Jerry has Bellamy a little faster than Bandini, although both are very fast.
Interesting that you would surmise that Afleet Alex is 7-2 and Bellamy Road 4-1. I don\'t disagree. You must be noticing the same groundswell that I see in support for Afleet Alex and there are lots of Bellamy doubters. I go to the Meadowlands Pegasus club for the Derby and they have a nice brunch/lunch spread. I bet a friend of mine that the first time we see the odds from Churchill on Saturday, that Afleet Alex will be the favorite. He says Bellamy. Loser is buying.
As for what to do with Bellamy, I am really really struggling. I have changed my mind 5 times in the past two weeks. Part of me wants to just key him on top of Superfectas, betting against AA and Greeley (both bouncing!), using longshots in the Super that I think have a shot like Andromeda\'s Hero, Flower Alley, Coin Silver and Closing Argument. I will also structure the wager such that High Fly or Noble Causeway must be in the super.
Then I change my mind and say how can you bet the favorite in this race. He hasn\'t beaten a single quality horse this year and will be affected by Spanish Chestnut and the other speeds. In this scenario, I think you have to consider that everything about this year points to the fact that Florida is where the best 3 year olds are. I think I could key the 1-2 finishers in the Florida Derby, High Fly and Noble Causeway. Both are in the \"1\" range and would need to move upp a little. Off the 5 weeks rest, they could. NC would appreciate a fast pace to close into and HF has tactical speed. Having two fresh horses, both fast, both coming from Florida, with Jerry Bailey and Gary STevens in the irons, could be a good thing. I figure about 8-1 on High Fly and maybe 10-1 on Noble Causeway. Although I do think there is a good chance that NC becomes a \"wiseguy\" horse and gets bet down on Derby day.
It was 72. Riva Ridge did win the Derby that year, won two legs of the triple crown and was from the exact same connections as Secrateriat ( Laurin, Turcotte Chenery).
Right now, I agree he\'s (BR) the biggest dilema I\'ve seen in quite some time. All three horses could bounce while a few other could improve making this a very close race. But lets face it, it\'s probably down to 6-7 who \"could Win\" with4 of them making up greater that 75% likely hood ( Bellamy Road, Bandini, Afleet Alex and Greeley Galaxy ) with High Fly , High Limit and Sun King as the other possible. Perhaps Sun king did not like Keeneland and loves CD. He worked well. Frankel\'s got us thinking about HL with his work with GZ.
But the issue of whether or not Bellamy Roads figure is right I again believe JB\'s right on the mark. The Horse did tie a 34 year old track mark of a High Quality \"REAL GOOD HORSE\" for a track thats been around for quite some time. I think we need to accept that fig and work with the scenario. I think you would be mistaken if you don\'t accpet the facts this time. Some three year olds have bounced significantly off new tops prior to the derby. Look at the history for specifics.
The question we need to ask ourslves is Can Belamy Pair or run an off but not an x, Can Bandini Run pair or another new top? Can GG run another new Top, Can AA run another new top? Can Sun King, Noble Causeway, High Limit and Fly jump up 3-5 points (depending on which one)? We need to develop a few scenarios as to how this race will be run after the PP assignments to help answer those questions.
NC Tony
This article says Belmont administered lasix doses will vary according to the horse\'s trainer/vet specifications(within legal min/max limits). Also,discusses results of NYRA milkshaking tests since February 16 (no names)...now ready to implement official testing. http://www.zwire.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=14439125&BRD=1170&PAG=461&dept_id=7021&rfi=8
Post Edited (04-30-05 01:22)
More dosage info...NYRA website statement on new detention barns. See item 18 for lasix dosage info.
http://www.nyra.com/aqueduct/feature.asp?track=A&id=1302
Post Edited (04-30-05 01:31)
Riva Ridge set that 9f record in \'73 at four in the Gr. II Stuyvesant. He carried 130#, beat Forage by 3 lengths and the DRF rating-variant for the day was 101-09.
Great info...yes my trainer discussion was just prior to these newer rules being implemented.
This is good to see that NYRA DOES listen to the concerns of the horsemen and women and uses their imput on this, as NYRA calls it..a work in progress!
Good job NYRA!
I think you\'ll get more on Noble Causeway than 10-1 and I do think he will close.
Afleet Alex is a lot of horse and that last race was to my eyes the most impressive of all the preps. He beat some fair horses in the Ark. The competition increases exponentially in the Derby, but what is not to like about Alex?, especially from a figures perspective? He has a solid foundation. Hes been fast and has not improved a great deal from his two year old top. He\'s king of the workouts and he has the right pace style. He\'s beaten many of those in the race, but for Wilko and a horror trip. I think he\'ll be favored. If he draws a bad hole thats probably the biggest knock against him, cuz his jockey hasn\'t proven to me he\'s adept at trips.
Post Edited (04-30-05 09:23)
Without commenting on his Derby Day chances, it is interesting to note that Afleet Al is one of the only contenders that has the look of a traditional Derby horse in that he had an extensive 2YO campaign and will have run 9 races when he faces the starter next Saturday.
The other contenders Bell Road (Derby will be 6th start), Bandini (6th start), High Fly (7th start), Greeley\'s Galaxy (5th start), Noble Causeway (7th start)and Sun King (8th start)are more similar to recent Derby heroes: Smarty (6 starts prior to Derby), Funny Cide (6), War Emblem (7), Monarchos (6), FuPeg (5), Grindstone (5).
Caveat to supporters of Greeley\'s and Hi Limit: No Derby winner since Exterminator (1918)won with only 4 starts prior to the Derby.
Of the last 9 Derby winners, only 4 were 2YO stakes winners: (Real Quiet and Silver Charm won graded stakes, Smarty and Funny won state bred stakes).
With regards to the traditional way of bringing a colt to the Derby, the times they are a changing, and its interesting that even the \"old school\" Afleet Al is being \"interval trained\" (multiple trips to the track each morning) up to the Derby.
Post Edited (04-30-05 13:13)
Regarding BR\'s Wood figure, this was a situation that goes straight to the figure making comments I made here recently. The problem is not just how you deal with BR and Survivalist, it\'s also how do you deal with all those horses behind them. We posted the race here before-- you can find it with a search for \"Wood\" and \"attached\"-- and you will see what the options were. Not that it matters, but this is a time it fit with the sprints, and I added 3 relative to the other 2 turn race. Andy did it the same as I did, Len about a point slower-- and I would very much like to see him post full sheets for that race. It would be very interesting, considering how fast they had the New York 3yo preps-- in their Derby probables package they had Scrappy T going back 8 points and Survivalist back 2 1/2 off a pair in Florida, and they were 8 clear of the next horse, so the rest have to be going back 10-15 points or more.
Re Riva Ridge, who won the first Derby I ever bet, shortly after I joined Ragozin-- keep in mind that not only was he a 4yo when he set that record, but as I said in \"Are Racehorses Getting Faster\", the track wasn\'t nearly as deep then (cushion was 2 1/2 inches then, 3 1/2 now), and the track had a higher clay to sand ratio, making it faster when dry than the current soil.
TGJB wrote:
> Regarding BR\'s Wood figure, this was a situation that goes
> straight to the figure making comments I made here recently.
> The problem is not just how you deal with BR and Survivalist,
> it\'s also how do you deal with all those horses behind them. We
> posted the race here before-- you can find it with a search for
> \"Wood\" and \"attached\"--
I did a search and could not come up with the TFigs for the Wood. I\'d certainly lay them over the horses to try and ascertain the merits of figs on the margins.
If you take the horses one by one, to me its pretty clear they all went south badly.
Going Wild - Finished last, beaten 41 lengths. Can there be any doubt?
Pavo - Coming off a career effort in the Gotham I believe. I read the poor Wood as a bounce to the moon.
Naughty New Yorker - beaten 32 lengths, beaten 7 and 15 respectively by Galloping Grocer and Scrappy T, both horses he handled in the Whirlaway. Finished close to in the Gotham. 1st time Lasix in the Wood, did it dull him?
Galloping Grocer - Tactical decision to lay off the pace in the Wood. Did it discourage GG? He certainly didn\'t pick up a foot.
Scrappy T - Significant layoff, Saddle slipped 4 marks into race. Came home in over 28 seconds.
Survivalist - Its really all about him isnt it? Slow early, slow late, jockey commented negatively, worked like a pig first work after.
Tracks are slower. What that means to me is the strip was scalding Wood day. I just dont think most of the horses entered took advantage of it. But you have to admit, even the New York Bred Slow Rats motored early. Foggy is the question mark to me. But he ran different. Maybe he was off, maybe he rated better than he has.