OK lets see in the last week or so we have heard:
1.) Pace is everything
2.) Pace is meaningless
3.) Ground Loss is overrated
4.) Weight Carried is no factor
So what really matters, who beat who?
See atached Article
http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050426/SPORTS08/504260406
I agree ....let them all think what they want about pace, ground loss etc.
Interesting comment by Frankel in the last paragraph of this article about derby contenders. TGJB please forgive me as he refferences \"Sheets\" but I think his point is worthy of sharing.
NC Tony
\"So what really matters, who beat who?\"
It\'s not just how fast they run, it\'s how they run fast and against who. :-)
CH--
Not sure you want to get into that here.
So is it the figures that tell us that California is dry this year, or the fact that every one of them is getting their head handed to them when they travel east??
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Joe,
\"So is it the figures that tell us that California is dry this year, or the fact that every one of them is getting their head handed to them when they travel east??\"
They verify and support each other.
I don\'t know Jennifer\'s work, but I\'m guessing she might be either a college intern or on her 1st racing assignment, the only reasons I could think of for asking Battaglia\'s opinion on betting lines. You no doubt noticed his televised \"best bet of the day\" while you were here. It\'s usually even money, but today he went out on a limb because he didn\'t want to take Pletcher\'s 1-5 lock in the nightcap, & tabbed 6/5 shot Gimme an A off an almost yr layoff because he liked the works. The most recent one was blistering, but took place only 5 days ago & was a gate work, not necessarily positives for a 6 yr old, especially one which had never been able to make the 7f distance of the race. Mike\'s a nice guy, but I\'m not sure he\'s the right guy to be making Derby lines, calling the races at CD, or handling BC or other post race presentations. The other thing in the article that was interesting to me was Pletcher\'s comment that GP form has been holding up best at Kee. Maybe in the big races, but on a day to day basis, it\'s FG in 1st by a large margin, & then GP & OP. TP horses have done horribly, as usual. As others have pointed out, it\'s a peculiar track, & you have to play the angles, but until this yr it was always a track which offered great betting opportunities against weak & overbet favs. The fields this yr have been the smallest I have ever seen, & too many of the races have been uncompetitive. Both problems will disappear when the action moves to CD on Sat.
Mall,
Jennie Rees has been there a pretty long time.
xichibanx
Mall,
Was a pleasure to meet you at KEE. Will be heading to Kee Simulcast from time to time and would like to meet again if and when I get up there.
Email me to discuss Derby Bet strategy if you want.
Would enjoy hearing from you and your strategy for the derby.
NC Tony
>Joe,
>\"So is it the figures that tell us that California is dry this year, or the fact that every one of them is getting their head handed to them when they travel east??\"
>They verify and support each other.
Server was down last night so I never got a chance to respond to this one.
CH, how do they verify and support each other before the horses have faced off. You are talking out of both sides of your mouth with this one.
The verification and support comes AFTER the race.
So do you take a wait and see approach on a good betting opportunity?
And then say the East coast horses are beating the West coast horses so the East coast horses must be pretty good. NEXT TIME I\'m betting the east coast horses.
Silver Charm,
\"CH, how do they verify and support each other before the horses have faced off. You are talking out of both sides of your mouth with this one.\"
I look at mathematical measurements of ability like speed and pace figures.
I also look at subjective measurements of ability like the quality of the field.
I want to know how impressively the horses have been winning, against who, how consistently, how \"deep\" in talent the race was, was the race development competitive or uncompetitive, etc...
These things support or conflict with each other.
When a race looks like it was high in quality and it also comes back fast mathematically, I\'m a lot more confident in that race than if there\'s a conflict between the two.
In fact, I think very high quality races are sometimes so competitive they impact the figures of some of the participants negatively (usually pace/duel related) and vice versa.
I form all these opinions both prior to the race and after watching and analyzing the results (including fractions and final time).
I then give even more weight to my opinions as various horses run out of these races and further verify those opinions.
For example:
IMO, the east coast 3yos have looked superior to the west coast 3yos on every measurement I look at. The results of some of the preps where there have been crossovers just added more fuel to that opinion. I think most of us agree on this.
However, it\'s not always that clear.
Sometimes there is conflicting evidence.
That\'s when I get into some of the \"no solid position \"if\" posts\" that lots of people complain about.
To me though, this type of \"if thinking\" is just part of the \"line making\" process. I am never nearly as confident in my speed figures alone as most figure handicappers are - certainly nowhere near most TG users.
To me, they are just one tool in my tool box - albeit a very important one. I tend to weigh a lot of information - most of which is not certain. I use a lot of subjective judgement based on 30 years of watching and handicapping races.
Well put
I think you\'re on the right track concentrating on how to bet it, instead of who to bet on, illustrated in my case again in the Trial, where I keyed Baffert\'s horse & still managed not to cash. Speaking of Baffert, he was in Wagner\'s this morning buying powerball tix, quipping that the prize was higher than the Derby purse & there would be no owners to answer to in the event he didn\'t win. Now that I\'m almost caught up, a few for what it\'s worth observations:
(1) Interesting in the new enviroment that someone like Sheppard had about 30% winners for the Kee meet, while Asmussen was less than 5%. And his horses didn\'t do anything Sat & Sun, so my inclination is to assume this will be one of the cleaner Derbys, & act on the info rather than waiting.
(2) I\'ve read the negative comments about Mike Smith, but I haven\'t seen many bad rides over the last month. The jock that has left me unimpressed is Brian Hernandez, as he looks like he\'s 13 yrs old & does not appear to have enough strength to finish. Re jocks, the piece de resistance at the \"new\" CD is the Peb mural.
(3) One trainer observation which has seemed to hold up over the last yr or so is Baffert\'s claim that Calif horses more than hold their own when they ship out of state, the Trial winner being the most recent but not the only example.
(4) I still maintain that the psychological/intimidation factor is an important one in this kind of race, assuming it doesn\'t become more important, as it was once for Bandini, than the race itself. That might have been a reason he was on the outside in the BG.
(5) The vast majority will be staggering near the end, which is why I think breeding plays as big a role in this race as any, esp when it comes to filling out the bottom of your exotics.
I enjoyed meeting you as well, & wish you luck this weekend.
A title that fits you Mall if there ever was one. lol
Was Baffert trying to sneak a look at Thorograph from behind the counter. Also those lottery tickets probably have better odds than his horse does.
>this will be one of the cleaner Derbys
Cleaner and Clean are possibly a winners circle apart
Mall--
Good point (#5). I think even Jerry would agree that an overly taxing pressured pace (say :45,1:10) could push the past performance ratings aside for those such as HIGH FLY, HIGH LIMIT, and BELLAMY.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
I\'m making the over/under line for 6 marks to be .46 on a fair track.
On a fair track thats plenty hot and I don\'t think Bellamania will be on the lead on that fraction. If he is, I\'ll get both nervous and optimistic.
If BELLAMY loses, I predict Steinbrenner will fire Joe Torre.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Especially if Sis City wins and Bellamy Loses
NC Tony