I am new to this board and have never used any form of speed figures. My handicapping was learned at my father\'s knee nearly 50 years ago and I\'m not about to learn any new tricks at this point. That being said, I believe it\'s important to gain an understanding of how you folks think. A while back, NYRA commissioned a study that established that 5% of the bettors bet 95% of NYRA\'s handle. These \"big\" bettors, like most public handicappers today, rely on some form of figs or another. Thus, most of the money being bet is flowing in one direction. There can be no doubt, in my mind, that speed figures will get you to many a winner. After all, they are pointing to the fastest horses. This is nothing new --- I imagine the Romans figured that was a good idea. However, these winners are often underlays because of the proliferation of speed fig handicappers. This point was made clear in Beyer\'s book on trip handicapping. From my point of view, it is important to gain an understanding of your approach so I can find its weaknesses and bet the other way. A successful wager requires the balancing of a horse\'s probability of winning and the potential reward. Your approach will get you to winners, but the potential reward is, in my view, often lacking.
Post Edited (04-26-05 21:34)
Contrarian:
All of what you say is interesting. The \"5% betting/ 95% handle\" doesn\'t seem accurate, but I have no facts/ figures to refute this with.
I have always wondered why TGJB and the other guy haven\'t limited the distribution of their product-- gone private if you will--to a smaller user base which would be willing to pay more than the twice a week racegoer such as myself would ever pay for such information. I guess the fact that the TGs are $25 per card and that you can download 180 or so DRF racecards for $150 does quite a bit to limit the TG user base in itself.
As you say, the public tends to make the fastest horse a short priced proposition in most cases. My most frequent bet is the Pick 4, and I can tolerate 1 (but only one)short price (2/1 or below) favorite in a 4 race sequence. But thank God that jockeys, bad trips and bad training cause these favorites to lose 65% (approx) of the time.
Sometimes as a contrarian you just know the public is very wrong. And with sweet memories of Rockport Harbor (out of the super, 3/5) and Galloping Grocer (out of the exacta, 4/5), I look forward to the final Wednesday at AQ before we shift to the Big B for the 100th anniversary celebration.
Dear Albany!
Good post! I think one thing you will find here is that we are not a monolith. You give 10 of us a set of sheets and we may come up with 20 different views. Another thing I think you will find is that a lot of sheet players also use the contrarian angle you espouse.
Sheet players may feel the obvious winners are being overbet (even though they have a very good chance to win) and that horses with lesser chances are being way overlooked. It is the classic situation where a horse with a 10% chance to win is a great bet at 20-1 but an awful bet at 8-1. Same horse in both cases, same chances of winning, all that changed was how the crowd bet it. There are people who have a low tolerance for betting a horse with a 90% chance of losing no matter what the payoff is if it wins, and they may just pass such races where the logical horses are overbet and the only source of value is a low probability proposition.
In any event, I would be interested to hear what your observations tell you about our weaknesses over here.
In order to beat a sheet player one must first learn the patterns[both pro and con] that emits from each horse.
Possibly if you were to buy t.g.analysis,the necessity and time consuming burden could be bypassed.
by the way ...what was it your dad taught you that has held your attention all these years?
PARTYpokerON !
The best way to beat a big figure sheet horse that is shortish on odds and consquently beat some of the smart sheet money is to ascertain a bias that aided a sheet number and or a pace/trip issue that aided the number or a coming pace/trip scenario that will disadvantage the big fig horse. Or identitify a possible projection error and theorize an alternative projection that is plausible under the circumtances. I don\'t adhere to the a 1 is a 1 is a 1 theory. Most horses have distance limits, though some will say \"Look at Ghostzapper!\". I\'ll concede upon him when he has to run a legitimate race at 10 marks. Currently, Roses in May supports the proposition, (My sense is he caught a soft Dubai Cup however...still he won impressively), though I think just about every other competitive horse in the Classic broke down or had trip issues.
I\'ve questioned the last three big figure races and it is possible that I\'m all wet. Horses are getting faster, but I see issues in all three. If TGraph is borne out upon them I\'ll admit my error when I reach a conclusion. They could all have ruined themselves on huge efforts as well. Ghostzapper may be feeling the effects, hes still not back to the races.
Post Edited (04-27-05 11:26)
Chuckles,
I\'m sure Ghostzapper is in his stall waiting for you to confer your approval.
HP
lol HP, Ghostzapper is hoping to be a good one turn horse again. I\'ll think i\'ll beat him this time too.
I would like to thank everyone who responded to my post. I was worried that some of you might take offense at my approach. I certainly didn\'t mean any disrespect. My post
simply reflected two obvious truths: (1) the
sheets do point out winners and (2) those winners are often overbet.
As a child, I first attended the races at Saratoga with my father. It was there that I learned basic math by reading the Morning Telegraph (now the Racing Form). Any racing fan who has not visited Saratoga has not really experienced racing as it was meant to be. Everyone in the town, the shops and eateries talk racing around the clock. Those who don\'t participate are the outsiders. In other words, horse players are not viewed as degenerates as they often are in many other parts of the country. On the track, the racing is without equal. Secretariat, Man O War, Alydar, Affirmed, Dr. Fager -- the list seems endless -- have appeared at the Spa. With its emphasis on two year old racing, I soon learned the importance of breeding, trainer patterns and workout schedules for young stock. Today, I employ this knowledge in my contrarian fashion. Simply stated, the sheets can give you a line on experienced runners, but are less effective with young, lightly raced horses. I play at the margins of the game where sheet players feel least comfortable.
Another area of fruitful pursuit is distance/surface conversions. The sheets can only attempt to quantify what horses have already accomplished. The numbers, in my view and in the opinion of others on this site, do not automatically translate to different surfaces and distances. This gives me an opportunity as \"sheet money\" is flowing in the wrong direction.
I don\'t view handicapping as a science that is subject to precise quantification. The beauty of handicapping is that it is an art. The past performance charts are a canvas that each handicapper, applying his own creative interpretation, must apply the paint of his own logic and experience. Sheet players have their approach and I have mine. Perhaps we can learn from each other. In this regard, I would appreciate any input you folks may have on both the strengths and weaknesses of speed figure handicapping.
Clown, how bout one and a half turns?
Albany, different strokes for different folks, but some of us use TG strictly to find bombs (I have no clue what % of total TG users) hoping for a finish in the money. Lots of longshots quietly finish 2nd and 3rd and TG often points to them when the #s and patterns are read correctly.
flushedstraight wrote:
> Clown, how bout one and a half turns?
>
Well, the first stop is the Met Mile and hes gonna get beat there and beat there badly. If hes running come the end of October (which is doubtful) he\'ll be deep into the medication testing issue and have to run on a fair track at a fair distance and once again be embarrassed. October 29th is a monumental speculation. Freakin horse has a hole in its head.
bzzzzzzzzzzz.
bzzzzzzzzzzzz
hold still horsey, we\'re just gonna drain this clotted matter out of you.