Since so many are already offering opinions on the 3rd leg, I thought it might be worthwhile to point out why, in a sense, posts are like races, in that the finish is of critical importance. Which brings to mind P.J. O\'Rourke classic \"Learn To Write Good\", which he billed an inside look at some of the secrets the pros use when they can\'t figure out a way to end a story with a lot of characters & a complicated plot. His advice was to finish with a sentence which fits in all circumstances but one, to wit \"And then everyone was run over by a truck.\" The one exception of course is if the story is about trucks, in which case you finish with \"And then all the trucks were run over by a mammoth truck.\"
I\'m sure some of you are thinking, OK Mall, I understand what you\'re getting at, and what you\'re saying certainly seems like solid advice, but what does this have to do with an erstwhile hippophile & poster like myself? Lets say you\'re near the end of your post, a comprehensive & complicated analysis of the Belmont, and you\'re looking for a way to finish. Simple. \"And then all the horses were run over by a mammoth truck named Essence of Dubai.\"
Mall you\'re too good a handicapper for me to dismiss Essence of Dubai out of hand. But I hated him in the Derby. I\'ll check the charts again but I don\'t think he was horribly compromised. So now he gets to lay up at Belmont and ambush the others on five weeks rest. He beat a bunch of Saudi desert horses in Arabia is all. The final time wasn\'t much compared to the big race out there and the time for that race wasn\'t much either in my opinion. I think the Epitome in his blood is better than the Pulpit. For the life of me however I can\'t recall what long races Epitome won. I think hes gonna have to close and generally the Belmont is not won that way. I\'ll review his works out there when the time comes but I don\'t see him nearly as good a horse as about 4 or 5 others that figure to go in that race. I reserve the right to revise that Belmont opinion however.
Tabitha
I\'m not committing to EOD or anyone else at this stage. Thanks for your vote of confidence in my handicapping, but your last sentence leads me to believe that perhaps you didn\'t quite get my point, which is surprising considering the nom de guerre of your close friend. And then Tabitha was run over by an apparently unsuccessful attempt to bring a little bit of humor to a premature & mostly somber discussion of a race which isn\'t going to take place for another 2 1/2 weeks.
Essence beat Ibn Al Haitham by three lenghts going a mile and by three lengths going a mile and a quarter. I assume he is about three lengths faster going a mile and a half as well. Ibn Al Haithan is still a maiden......... If you like Essence in the Belmont, there is a great betting opportunity this weekend.
My bad, I read too quickly. But then I always make the mistake of assuming that everyone else formulates opinions immediately after the preceding race and that meaning attaches to any horses they may mention or refer to.
But I think I know the Belmont Winner. Its the next three spots I\'m always thinking about.
Oh, and I can't remember how to spell her name, but Franfeluch was horsenapped some years back at Paris Kentucky. She was released without receipt of ransom and thereafter recovered after being almost hit by a truck. But there are other ways to wind up a story and In regard to Franfeluch and the truck incident I think it best to say that in Kentucky you never really know what kind of trick is gonna be played.
Tabitha
The next 3 spots under the Bel winner or the next 3 races for the horse you\'ve tabbed to win the Bel? You think KY is bad? And then Mall was run over by some FG Cajuns who paid a starter to keep a snug hold on a horse when the gate opened, and his lifeless body was then run over by some wiseguys at Calder who made a $300k score by entering a ringer/winner in a mdn race, followed closely by the stewards in KY who took down Mr John at Kee but did not take him down on Derby Day, followed by... Hey wait, there is no finish to this. Perhaps O\'Rourke was pulling my leg as well.
Been around everyday but I haven\'t had much to say since May 4th. I was riding a very profitable 6 month winning streak going back to Breeders Cup Day. I could do no wrong all winter. We\'ve all been there. That all changed starting on Derby Day. Anyway...I figure I\'d join in on this Essence of Dubai thread. The first thing I would like to know is, out of the entire UAE Derby field. Which horses have run back and how did they do? Not just the top 3 or 4 but any of the horses. Anyone know?
Ibn gets one more shot breaking his maiden against winners on Saturday and after that if he dosen\'t you\'ll very likely see him next against maidens. I usually have confidence with decisions Godolphin makes except when it come to Ibn. I\'m not happy with how they have not given this horse the opportunity to build up his confidence by winning some races. He should have been given the opportunity to be brought along dare I say the old fashioned way. Maiden, NW1 or 2L then NW2 and so on. I can forgive them not doing this last year but come on enough is enough already! With that said If he wins on Saturday I won\'t be suprised in the least. Then it may be onto the Belmont for him also. My handicapping or final decisions are not getting results right now so I may just not even look at the Peter Pan and just make a win bet on Ibn as a change.
On EOD. I\'m beginning to form an opinion that EOD is just not good enough. And his TG pattern and numbers can be used as evidence of this. He should have run much much better in the Derby. He had no excuse at all. It was horrible. He acted up and Flores had to jump off the horse before the Derby. I don\'t care how wide he went he should have finished up much better than he did. Unless he takes a big jump forward in the Belmont which I don\'t know why he would EOD just may not be fast enough at any distance. I would have liked to see EOD run Saturday in the Peter Pan but that\'s not going to happen. There\'s something to be said for running a horse in the afternoon If they are good right now. And to top it all off he\'ll likely get overbet in the Belmont just like he was in the Derby.
Side point... Flores on \"EOD\" -- couldn\'t they have made a better selection?
Reminds me of an interview I read a long time ago in the Form with CHI jock R. Meier, who is also better on front-runners than closers... He said that his favorite kind of horse to ride is a big closer on the turf. lol
Phil,
Do you think Ibn has a chance tomorrow? His numbers put him in in the game if Sunday Break fades down the stretch (no, I\'m not predicting that, just a \"what if\"). He has some good distance breeding on the dam side, and gets Bailey. I\'m not sure what to do with this horse.
Yes Ibn has a good chance tomorrow. If he fires a new top and he should, he\'s right there. Been working exceptionally well also. Against him in addition to the obvious no wins is Godolphin runners haven\'t been doing well over here yet albeit with limited starters. And will you get value? Not likely with Bailey up and with no monsters in the field. Until he actually wins a race demand better than fair odds. I\'ll pass unless he\'s 5-1 or better which I doubt you\'ll get tomorrow.