Okay, you aspiring figure makers out there. Take a crack at 4/23 Kee. Have fun.
Keeneland is my home track, and I must say it is very exceptional. What I mean is that none of the handicapping basics seem to hold up at Keeneland. I think that this is because Keeneland is in the heart of Breeding country, a lot of owners/trainers put a disproportionate effort into winning here. And, how many times have you seen natural 8/5s go off at 2/5 at Kee? Or horses with the right connections beat sweeming much superior runners?
Hence, I have never found anyone\'s speed figures as predictive at KEE as say CD for instance. Thus, I would also imagine that Kee figs are hard to make. Anyhow, my advice is too ignore KEE races in the PPs when handicapping at other tracks. (For example, Thunder Gulch.) Whatever the line says for a horse at KEE, it is was very likely an aboration!!
I was at Keeneland this year for the first two weekends and had good results on 2 out of th 6 days I was there.
Your point about Keenleand is well taken, and looking at the 2001 year as an exaple as case in point. Invisible Ink who clunked up the track in the BG (4th by 8.5) improved by 3.2 TG Points in the KD, AP Valentine was 5th by 13 in BG and 7 by 13 in the KD and improved TG\'s by 1.1, , the Winner of the 2001 BG, Millenium Wind (who won by 5.5 lenghts) and improved his TG\'s from his previous FG Race in the BG by 5.3 point jump, bounced badly (8.3) in the KD, and second place BG finisher Song and a Prayer improved his TG\'s by 4.2 points in the BG from his previous race but also bounced in the KD by 11.1 points (13th by 27). Another big bouncer out KEE Lex that year was Keats whos LEX TG was 2 but his KD was 24.1.
Oddly other big jump up horse that year was Balto Star who improved his overall TG figs over a three races from 10.2 to a 0.1 bounced to a 16.1 in the derby.
Don\'t know if history tells us anything or even how this applies to this years crop of horses but the point about KEE to CD is certainly valid, and perhaps big jump up horses \"may\" be vunerable in the Derby.
NC Tony
Although I think pace is overrated, I think a lot of those horses that who bounced badly in the 2001 Kentucky Derby did so because they got caught up in the absurd pace that year. I do not recall where Millenium Wind raced, but Balto Star and Song and a Prayer were definitely hammer and tongs out of the gate and their awful figs in the Derby can be excused. In a recent post, I also pointed out how that pace even snagged Point Given who as 5 lengths back in the early going (but also 5 lanes wide on the turn) and his off effort can be explained that way (it is a lot better explanation than that Baffert did a poor job preparing him for the Derby).
ever since they installed an announcer at keenland the surface has been unpredictable
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