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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: HP on May 22, 2002, 04:35:03 PM

Title: Suggestion
Post by: HP on May 22, 2002, 04:35:03 PM
On the Rag site, they have posted the whole Preakness card with their numbers for Preakness day. If youse did the same thing it could make for some interesting comparisons.

Opportunity knocks. HP
Title: Re: Suggestion
Post by: bj on May 22, 2002, 05:38:57 PM
*** Is Mrs.HP out of town ? bj
Title: Re: Suggestion
Post by: TGJB on May 22, 2002, 05:40:39 PM
Youse yourself. It\'s coming, probably Thurs., and you ain\'t kidding. Holy smoke.

Title: Re: Suggestion
Post by: bj on May 22, 2002, 06:49:00 PM
*** The Rag\'s only put up each horse\'s Preakness # , you guys have provided each horse\'s sheet . How can you compare one race without the context of a horse\'s entire sheet ? bj
Title: Re: Suggestion
Post by: Two Bucks on May 22, 2002, 08:27:32 PM
Yes actually they did post all the sheets from that day in the \"view a sample\" section.
Title: Re: Suggestion
Post by: bj on May 22, 2002, 09:14:03 PM
*** Thanks , Scott I obviously missed that.
Well , holy smoke is right .

The first thing that jumps out at me is the March 17 race for War Emblem @ Sportsman\'s .
The Rags have WE moving forward about 8 points off that race to the Derby - TG\'s move is 1 1/2 .

The second is that Magic Weisner is moving forward about 7 points on Rags from his March 30 Laurel race to his Preakness # - TG\'s move is 1 1/2 points.

The last obvious one is how fast the Rag\'s had the Wood Memorial . They have Medaglia D\'oro in the Wood as fast as WE\'s Derby .TG
has WE 3 points faster .

Very interesting .bj
Title: Re: Suggestion
Post by: tread on May 22, 2002, 10:15:55 PM
Wow, I don\'t know if everyone on that other board is just dillusional, but I am just astonished at the lack of logic involved in any of the arguments made for the other camp.

Point 1:
In a post I\'m sure will soon be taken down, one reader wonders why TG and Rags differ and is answered by JR\'s whimsical comment that TG \"blew it\" by having a 7 point jump in the SPT race that didn\'t result in a bounce.  Yet the rags numbers have him moving up 5.5 points in the same race and then not bouncing (actually progressing) in the derby either.  So by his logic, rags blew it just as much.  Would you ever expect less of a bounce off a 5.5 move than a 7 pt move?  I sure wouldn\'t

Point 2:
TENPINS!!!!  If there has ever been a more glaring advertisement for TG, just compare the 2 products on this horse.  TG has him (from memory) going 7, 5, 3 coming into his last race.  Very playable.  Rags has him at 11, 10, 1 going in, about as big a bounce candidate as you can have (especially according to JR, LOL).  No wonder they are dishing out drug accusations like porn leaflets on the Vegas strip, if horses look like this on their product, no wonder.

Point 3:
In a lower-down thread about Sarava, Robes answers a wise crack about variants by implying that TG makes their figures according to what fits into the sheet and doesn\'t use care in variants at all.  But JB\'s #1 argument the whole time is that THEY are not taking enough care with variants, that tracks change during the day and you can\'t use the same one all day and is challanging the extents they use to come up with them?  Is Friedman senile?  Is he so dense that he does not understand the TG argument?

Look, I\'m just some schmuck from Ohio who wants to make money.  I think determining who is making the better figures is important to that goal, I don\'t understand people who don\'t see any use in figuring out whose are better.  But since people over there can\'t even make sensible arguments as to why TG is a \"knockoff\" and what Rags is doing better, I guess it\'s hard to know what\'s going on in any of their heads.  Good luck to all, looking forward to some other views.
Title: Re: Suggestion
Post by: HP on May 23, 2002, 09:06:30 AM
I second Brian Teel\'s comment.

\"The first thing that jumps out at me is the March 17 race for War Emblem @ Sportsman\'s.\"

This race is a key for evaluating WE\'s chances in the Belmont, and I would like to hear about this huge discrepancy.

Maybe somebody was still hungover from St. Patty\'s.  HP
Title: Re: What Discussion?
Post by: Mall on May 23, 2002, 10:38:15 AM
This is the only place where you will be able to express and hear those other views, TH, as every post on the subject on the other Bd has been deleted, again evidencing a pattern of avoiding comparisons which is a lot more predictable than any involving horses.
Title: Re: What Discussion?
Post by: Alydar in California on May 23, 2002, 04:24:09 PM
Mall: Here\'s another line from Friedman. I\'m going on memory, but the words are accurate to within a few inches, so to speak: If you don\'t trust Len Ragozin to get the variant right, go somewhere else for your figures.

Treadhead asked: \"Is Friedman senile?\"

No, Treadhead. He is not senile.

Treadhead asked: \"Is he so dense that he does not understand the TG argument.\"

No, Treadhead. Friedman is very intelligent. He doesn\'t like variant debates, but on his best day, he might be able to keep up with you.