Anybody catch the 8th at Hollywood yesterday?? How does Pickle pay 20.80?? Paired tops of 3 3/4, only 1 other horse had run that number (Mea Domina in her last race) and they made her the even $ favorite. $52.40 exacta with Makeup Artist. TGJB, your turf numbers are dynamite.
It seems like a lot of people on this board want to question JBs numbers on certain Derby contenders. It goes on and on and on. I know its a high profile race, but its only ONE race. Give it a rest. Back up your opinion at the window, and just shut up already. If you guys want to continue to question him go ahead. Buy the other guy\'s product if you think these numbers are so screwed up. There are races to be won like Pickle all the time using the exact same figures a lot of you guys want to question.
Fact is if you\'ve played TGJBs picks in the Derby over the years, you\'re ahead plenty.
P-Dub wrote:
>> It seems like a lot of people on this board want to question
> JBs numbers on certain Derby contenders. It goes on and on and
> on. I know its a high profile race, but its only ONE race. Give
> it a rest. Back up your opinion at the window, and just shut up
> already.
I think theres a deliberative process underway to try and determine precisely what the last effort was and how to judge the next one. Ongoing.
>
> Fact is if you\'ve played TGJBs picks in the Derby over the
> years, you\'re ahead plenty.
No previous year matters.
P Dub:
I don\'t think its necessary for you to \"defend\" TGJB, because he is not being attacked. The fact that he takes time to respond to most of these comments shows that he appreciates that we are all trying to reach a better understanding of his product. I know as I begin to understand the methodology more, I will utilize the product more frequently.
I\'d like to throw a general question out: Are the \"numbers\" (TGJB, Beyer, or the other guy)(the other guy\'s website for some strange reason always makes me think of a funeral parlor, or even worse, an OTB parlor) more helpful:
A) To pick winners at a big event like the Derby or Breeders Cup where horses are coming from all over, and many of whom have never been over the track the event is to be held at; or
B) To pick winners in a race late in July at Belmont, where many of the runners have already been over the track recently, and have probably raced against each other at the meet.
Did I ask a question in there somewhere?
Post Edited (04-24-05 20:59)
>No previous year matters.>
No previous year matters?? Are you kidding?? Why not?? You don\'t think previous years results prove anything?? I read a lot about how people make various speed/pace figures around here. Whats their track record?? Not saying its bad, but how do we know?? If someone has no record of success, why should we trust them. My point is that JB has a track record, good enough to where I don\'t doubt his numbers. I\'m sure there are some pretty successful handicappers around here that make their own figures. But I come to this site to discuss TG numbers, not theirs.
Richiebee,
I\'m not defending TGJB, he doesn\'t need my help. Just seems to me like his past performances are good enough to where the numbers should be trusted more than they seem to be. And it seems like some will question them regardless.
Post Edited (04-24-05 21:02)
>SC-- it\'s not the Heat game, it\'s the Net game. I took 8-1 on this series.
TGJB there will be more "live" 8-1's on Derby Day. You should have saved your money.
My take on the Derby analysis is this. Jerry (speaking for him don't really know) usually views this race as a great betting opportunity with a twenty horse field and a large pool. There have been years where negative things were said about Point Given with the disclaimer if he can get thru this one he can sweep all three. We all know what happened. Funny Cide was one of about five 10-15 one shots that were recommended as being live with Empire Maker being a bet against because of short price, suspect foot and potential Bailey wide-trip. Track conditions and price may have made Smarty Jones a much more viable play than one thought he would be three days before the race. ALL HANDICAPPERS SHOULD BUY THE ANALYSIS, read it and then make up their own mind before they bet. After all it is their money.
P-Dub:
I agree with you. I come here hoping to discuss TG patterns, figs whatever dealing with the product. But rarely does that happen. I\'ve often posted about horses encouraging folks to visit the red board room and take a look why the horse was very bettable. Rarely is there a response.
One thing is certain: You\'ll NEVER learn anything about T-graph, pattern reads etc from classhandicapper nor Chuckles the Petulant Klown. [now we have pace as an ingredient of the T-graph fig. geeze...]
Perhaps noone really gives a crap?........
Keep posting bomb winners from TG figs, at least this person will take a look P-Dub.
Regards,
\'sheets
Guys, I don\'t have a problem with people questioning the figures as long as it\'s a real conversation. That\'s why I\'ve posted the figs for a number of big races that were questioned over the last couple of years-- my thinking is that the more people understand the process, the more they will question what other figure makers are doing, and the more they will buy ours. What I don\'t like is people completely disregarding the logic or evidence and telling me I\'m wrong-- you want to do it another way, make your case.
TGJB,
A slow day for me. A question I always wanted to ask.I have often read your postings which say, for example, Len got it wrong or Andy got it wrong.
Figure making is NOT an exact provable science,how do you know you got it right?When you put up a set of sheets to show the correctness of path or beaten length consistency to your figs, that proves nothing that can be independently confirmed.
So why are you right and everyone else wrong. Serious question really.Not trying to be a smart ass.Thanks.
Miff-- I know who is right by doing what I do for a living. What you are really asking is not why I\'m right, but how an outsider can tell.
First of all, a lot of it can be independently confirmed (honest guys, I didn\'t write this question myself, even though it looks like a batting practice fastball). And when I say that, I often do give evidence to show you how you can know. Like--
With the Florida Derby ground. Ragozin gave HF and NC the same number, based on having NC 4.5 wide on average for the second turn. At the time I said it was wrong, and I also said anyone could go to RaceReplays.com to see for themselves. I want to point out that SINCE I beat Ragozin over the head with this PUBLICLY, they stuck to it AGAIN in an article in the Thoroughbred Times, and DIDN\'T CHANGE THE FIGURES FOR THE DERBY PROBABLE SET THEY SOLD THEIR CUSTOMERS THIS WEEK. Once again, they made the most cynical of calculations-- they have virtually no on-line business, and their hard copy customers don\'t know they messed up, so why admit making a mistake? Better to give their customers bad data, for the biggest race of the year. I have to tell you, AGAIN, if I was one of their on-line customers who is reading this, I would be asking questions. LOUDLY.
Other examples-- the phantom off-poorly and ground errors in the 04 BC sprint, Touch Of The Blues in the BC mile a couple of years ago, the 3 length error Ragzoin made in the Derby figures last year, resulting in a 1 1/2 point INTERNAL error (not a judgement call) within the figures for the biggest race of the year, bad ground for the Wood in 03. In all these cases I said anyone could go to watch the replay themselves to decide. And in TOTB\'s case Ragozin did go back much later, after things calmed down, to change the ground-- don\'t know about the others.
When it comes to variant decisions, you have two ways to go-- one is deciding whose theories make sense (Ragozin\'s are detailed in his book, i.e. that tracks never change speed except for extreme weather, mine in the Expo presentation found in the archives, backed up by a fair amount of science). The second is to look at what evidence is available-- from how the figures hold up, and from those races I post so you can look at the figures and the logic. On those rare occasions Ragozin does the same, I usually end up cramming yet another error down their throats. And those are on the BIG races.
You can also draw conclusions from everybody\'s willingness to answer questions, other than with \"We\'re right. Trust us, we wouldn\'t lie to you\". At least those who aren\'t brainwashed can.
gvido,
First off I don\'t use tgraph, so I\'m not competent to comment on Tgraph pattern reads and thats why I generally don\'t.
I think the only time I have ever mentioned them (other than a general \"cycling\" comment) was in an earlier post today. If I was a Tgraph devotee, I\'d look with a very interested eye at Sun King on his regression from his top and movement back towards same. Still, I dont\' think a Zed is gonna be enough this year now. But if Sun King truly has distance affinity I would not be surprised to see him click to Neg 1 in the Derby. Theres a lot of ifs there though.
But the question is what is there to know? You look for top efforts and cycling back to them or you look for recent top efforts and falling off of them. There, now you\'re semi competent. Have at it and ask more questions.
P-dub,
I agree with what you say, racing is so pathetic right now the only interesting conversation seems revolve soley on the Derby which is unfortunate. I get derbied out about mid march.