JB,
Any thought to having an \"in person\" seminar for the Derby in the NY area. Not to steal an idea from the enemy, but I see that Len hosts a dinner derby seminar on Wednesday night. Not sure what your market share is in NYC or if it makes sense (I know you have more internet customers, not sure about NYC base?)
Second question for any \"experienced\" sheet reader out there. Most of us on this board accept the -4 or thereabouts for Bellamy Road in the Wood. However, when you look at his overall line, what does it look like? ON Beyer, he actually looks like a \"one race\" horse, as his other race this year was only a 96 beyer. On T-Graph, both of his races this year are very fast, matching the first might make him the Derby winner, matching the 2nd would almost definitely make him the derby winner.
I have read on the \"other\" board that Len has already taken a negative position on the horse. I guess his numbers are in line with Jerry\'s because Len mentions a 9 point move from his 2 year old top to the Wood, making the horse a \"bet against\" on Derby day. It looks like about a 9 point move on T-Graph also.
I want to bet against the horse, I am having trouble though because without seeing this past weekend\'s numbers yet, it looks to me like he could bounce 3 or 4 points and still win.
Comments from any experienced sheet players out there on his pattern?
No pace arguments please. We have all ready about 100 times why the pace guy thinks he is a phony.
Jim -
I think he moved from a 5 to a zero in his 3yo debut and then popped the neg. race in the Wood. I\'m also looking to duck this guy too and think the most likely move is back to the zed. Problem is that particular move could still get the job done and definitely leaves him as likely to fill out exotics. I\'ll happily listen to any reason one might have to think he\'ll back up further.
TG,
I\'d like to know if BR\'s race prior to the Wood was broken out and whether that accounts for the big difference between his Beyer and TG figure for that race. I won\'t comment further.
Jimbo,
I don\'t know any pace handicapper that thinks Bellamy Road\'s race was phony from a pace perspective. The pace figure he earned was very similar to the final time figure he earned (very fast).
I still think the main question is whether he can duplicate that performance at 10F, on a less speed friendly racetrack, against a field that will almost certainly contain a couple of horses that can and will take some kind of pot shot at him (unlike the dogs with fleas he faced at Aqu.)
I think the answer is almost certainly no, but I wouldn\'t be surprised if he runs a slower race and still wins. Putting a proper odds line on him is going to be no easy task for me. I\'m waiting for you for some help. :-)
CH,
There is one pace handicapper on this board who thinks the race was phony. I won\'t name names as my policy is to ignore this guy in the future.
As for an odds line. I already created my starting point. Of course it evolves from now until the Derby. This is it: Assumes 16% takeout, another 1.5% \"breakage\". Also assumes 18 horse field (might be 20, but for now, I assume 18. I also don\'t know all the starters, so you can see there are placeholders for a few 50-1 shots to fill out the field.
Bellamy Road $8.00 3 to 1
Bandini $14.00 6 to 1
Afleet Alex $18.00 8 to 1
High Fly $18.00 8 to 1
Consolidator $26.00 12 to 1
High Limit $26.00 12 to 1
Sun King $26.00 12 to 1
Rockport Harbor $26.00 12 to 1
Noble Causeway $26.00 12 to 1
Buzzard\'s Bay $62.00 30 to 1
Andromeda\'s Hero$62.00 30 to 1
Flower Alley $82.00 40 to 1
Greater Good $82.00 40 to 1
Wilko $102.00 50 to 1
?? $102.00 50 to 1
?? $102.00 50 to 1
?? $102.00 50 to 1
?? $102.00 50 to 1
classhandicapper wrote:
> Jimbo,
>
> I don\'t know any pace handicapper that thinks Bellamy Road\'s
> race was phony from a pace perspective.
I think Bellamy\'s pace number is not as strong as indicated by the mass number producers. The same way I believed Spanish Chestnuts were better than the mass producers stated. Bellamy caught an extremely fast track and ran as fast as he had to in order to get the lead. He was fortunate in the circumstances. Theres a number of things that can sink him unless hes Secretariat. A contested pace is one of them. Its not going to be near as easy for him to run a 46 or 46.3 at Churchill.
Ah, the ol\' pace numbers thing. This is why I love turf racing so much better.
My opinion is that BELLAMY ROAD was cranked for the Wood so that Steinbrenner could see him run in the Derby. The combination of that, the track, and the competition is what led him to his waltz at Aqueduct. Even Zito was shocked. (Don\'t you think the trainer would have known what he had?)
That being said, he will probably now go on to win the Derby.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
A few things--
1-- We used to give live Derby and BC seminars, they are labor intensive and involve renting a room, finding a place with adequate parking, etc. We reach an awful lot of people much easier with the web seminars, and that\'s where our potential customers are these days as well. And there\'s not much overhead, or additional work, since I have to write those paragraphs anyway (which is brutal for the BC, not so bad for the Derby/Oaks).
2-- Bellamy Road\'s GP race came on a day when the track was steadily getting much faster throughout, and was in the middle of the card. I added a lot compared to races before it, but not nearly as much as I did to the later races, so no, I didn\'t break it out. My guess is that Beyer did it as a straight-up split variant, attaching that race to the later ones, splitting them from the earlier ones.
As an aside, I\'ve never seen anything like these two new Magna tracks (GP and LRL). They are unbelievably changeable without precipitation, on a regular basis, which presumably means they are extremely sensitive to changes in moisture content (humidity, wind and sun, track maintenance), and therefore presumably have some different kind of soil content.
3-- On the Bandini question from a couple of days ago-- incremental moves are fine, but they don\'t go on indefinitely, and there are a lot more horses who can handle a 6 without bouncing than a 3, etc. Additionally, Pletcher horses don\'t generally develop through a campaign, they show what they\'ve got early on-- and since this one was slower than several others and starting outside he was tough to like.
CH, if you post any pace or bias nonsense in response to this very specific question and response it will be deleted.
4-- Chris-- since it will be THE question for this year\'s Derby, how about a study of how horses ran coming in off big new tops. When we put out the sheets for the probables there will be a lot of noise, and I might post the full sheets for some of the preps so you can see how we got there. It\'s unnerving to be giving out all these negatives, but when horses run 4 to 9 points better than anyone else in the race, there ain\'t a whole lot of choice-- as you will see.
TGJB,
I\'m not sure I understand your view on Pletcher and Bandini.
I scan your trainer/speed figure stats (which are great by the way), but I haven\'t looked at all of them very carefully.
However, I\'ve been following Pletcher horses for as long as he\'s been a top trainer. His horses do generally come out running, but they also improve at approximately the same rate as he moves them up the ladder. They also seem to improve more often than for just about anyone else - hence his incredible win percentage. He spots them where they belong as they improve. IMO, he may be the best trainer on the planet in this regard.
This may be a different profile than someone that brings out a potential star dead short and then moves them forward in a couple of massive spurts, but I thought Bandini was an absolute mortal lock dead stone cinch to improve in the BG. Several lengths was certainly not out of question given how lightly raced he was. It was just a matter of exactly how much because of the issues with his foot.
IMO, Pletcher is one notch below \"GOD\" and all his horses should be viewed in that light. He should have been elected pope! :-)
I won\'t talk about the others in the race as per your request.
Post Edited (04-20-05 17:24)
In figure and pattern terms, Pletcher and Frankel are very similar. Their horses come out and ran a big number within the first two starts of a campaign, and seldom do a large amount of developing within the same campaign. At the other end of the spectrum was someone like Zito, but he\'s changed his pattern, and it remains to be seen how that will work out.
This pattern with Pletcher and Frankel is even more pronounced with older horses because with younger ones there is some degree of natural development that takes place as the year goes on, but within that range those trainers horses will develop a lot less than average because they are pushed to perform fresh-- they don\'t run themselves into shape.
Some things should be discussed though. What are the primary tools in handicapping a race? Are they only Speed, Weight and Form?
Theres Distance. We all know Gators and Bears can fire a Neg. 2 at six marks but he can\'t at 10.
Theres path and pace
Theres horsemanship, jockey error, bias and trouble.
Theres even more, pharmaceuticals now and distance factoring.
The biggest is speed. No doubt about it. If its pure speed why don\'t we hand the Kentucky Derby Trophy to Bellamy Road today? He apparently scored out highest on the figs? Though I\'m inclined to believe Alex ran the best race. TGJB\'s commentary however is indicationg we have several negative last number Tops horses to consider and the question is which is best positioned to win the next race.
Add to that consideration a pace scenario that is looking legitimate and barring a neo Secretariat, its looking like a dilly.
Mr. Science where are you?
TGJB,
Wth the older horses that\'s certainly the case.
However, I think with guys like Frankel and Pletcher, when they are dealing with a lightly raced young horse, \"the probability\" that the horse will move forward is much higher than with anyone else - partly because of stock and partly because of competence. You may get slower steadier improvement, but you can pretty much count on both getting it and them having such an excellent guage on where the horse is at that point, it won\'t be spotted aggressively unless it\'s ready to compete at that level.
With other guys you might get a bigger move forward here or there because they come out shorter of peak, but you will get a move backwards way more often too. You\'ll also often get a horse spotted where he doesn\'t belong because the trainer has no clue about where he is at the time. Ex. Zito thought
Sun King was his best horse and had no idea BR was going to run that well.
Post Edited (04-20-05 17:39)
Post Position draw for this 20 Horse field will play a factor in final decision on whom I am going to bet. Must see if PP helps or hurts the style of running the horse has. Would you still bet Bellamy road from Post 20 with lots of speed (High Limit, High Fly, AA,GG) inside of him all trying to gain position? With the ground loss for the entire length of the Stretch into turn 1? What if he has PP1? It could help or hurt depending on his break. Too early in my opinion to make final decisions on this race until the PP draw is made. I think you can pair down the candidates at this point but still premature to finalize your decision. Plus as always a few will still drop out due to some type of injury between now and the race.
Great race for speculation until then.
Where else could Zito have spotted Bellamy Road other than the Wood? The Bluegrass?
Come on now.
NoCaroloina Tony,
Your \"lots of speed\" group, doesn\'t have much speed. High Fly will be several lengths off the lead, Afleet Alex will probably be 5+ lengths off, and the over-under on lengths off the lead for Greater Good is probably a dozen.
High Limit has speed and may show more with the blinkers. If you want to bet against Bellamy Road based on the pace battle, I think you ought to be rooting for a nice rade out of Rockport Harbor this weekend. Rockie is not cheap speed like Spanish Chestnut or Going Wild. He is a classy horse with a very high cruising speed. He hasn\'t had to run sub 46 splits in his routes, but I would not bet he can\'t. Plus, if he makes the Derby, he won\'t cave in like a cheap suit after 6 furlongs, like the other \"speed\" horses people think might hurt Bellamy Road. I would bet Rockport Harbor would be in contention as they turn for home and take a lot of the starch out of Bellamy Road.
If Rocky makes the Derby, I think it makes Bellamy more beatable. But you still need somebody to run a negative number to win. And you probably need somebody that fast ALREADY. Not many horses fire big new tops and win the Derby. They need to be fast ALREADY.
NCT,
I\'m not questioning the spot, I\'m saying he had no clue how good either horse was or how well either was going to run. No one is perfect, but I\'ll take Pletcher over just about anyone else when it comes to spotting his horses, getting them to fire, and guaging their ability.
jimbo,
I agree with you completely. I hope that doesn\'t scare you. :-)
CH
I forgot to Include Rocky in my theoretical example. He does have good early speed. My only point is that PP will matter for some horses in this race. And to make any decision now in my opinion would be premature until the PP draw is out. Right Now BR is the Best Fig Horse going in, a potential bounce candidate as will AA and Bandini (a distant cousin by the way), off of there last one. BR beat second rate horses so I am not sure he was taxed for supreme effort and rather did it with natural ability. He looks to me to be best of the speed or best horse anyway.
My Point is that is you use Greater Good Ark Race as an example, and we have folks making excuses for his performance due to the fact he couldn\'t clear from PP10 and got used early to gain position and hung out --what happens in the derby with PP18-20 should AA or BR or RH or HF or HL get that fun post. Those collective horses have a got a 1 in 5 chance to get pp 20 and individually have a 15% chance to get 18-20.
I think the ground lost and early use of energy will be important in handicapping this particular race.
NC Tony
classhandicapper wrote:
> TGJB,
>
> Wth the older horses that\'s certainly the case.
>
> However, I think with guys like Frankel and Pletcher, when they
> are dealing with a lightly raced young horse, \"the probability\"
> that the horse will move forward is much higher than with
> anyone else
Well, lets see. Its all here. We don\'t have to speculate (The first number is 2YO top):
Pletcher:
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2005/derby_history/derby_charts/trainers/508.html
2004 Pollards Vision 4 / 7 - 2.1 - 2.1 -1.2 -17
2004 Limehouse 6 / 1 - 3 - 3 - 3
2002 Wild Horses 19 / 11 - 8 - 6 - 6 - 16
2001 Balto Star 16 / 11 - 11 - 3 - 0 - 0 - 16
2001 Invisible Ink 11 / 6 - 1 - 5 - 5 - 1
2000 Impeachment 7 / 11 - 13 - 13 - 7 - 6 - 5
2000 More Than Ready 4 / 3 - 6 - 3 - 6
2000 Graeme Hall Sheet missing from database
2000 Trippi 10 - 4 - 6 - 4 - 10
The only exceptions I can see to the Pletcher \"running hard by second race\" format is Balto Star and Maybe Impeachment. Impeachment retired with a maiden win and was probably running pre additives if I\'m not mistaken. Balto was one of Pletcher\'s better overall horses in my opinion but he developed quickly and bounced in the Derby. I\'m not sure he ever exceeded the Zeds.
And now Bandini who apparently moved forward large in this last race. Larger than any of his previous Derby entries as a matter of fact.
Frankel:
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2005/derby_history/derby_charts/trainers/218.html
2004 Master David 2 / 6 - 6 - 4 - 6
2003 Empire Maker 6 / 6 - 0 - 0 - 0
2003 Peace Rules -7 / 0 - 0 - 2
2002 Medaglia d\'Oro 9 / 7 - 2 - 2 - 2
2000 Aptitude -8 / 9 - 7 - 5 - 3
1990 Burnt Hills No Data Base
1990 Pendleton Ridge No Data Base
Some degree of skepticism is in order on Aptitude. At the time, Frankel was doing it the old fashioned way. Hes got a new approach now.
Well, for Frankel the running by the second race of the 3 yr old season is even more pronounced. TGJB obviously knows his figure database.
CH you\'re only defensible positions are that you were referring to Pletcher and Frankels Non Triple Crown horses or you were referring to a move up probability in the 1st or 2nd race of their 3YO season.
NC Tony.....GG had a legitimate excuse, hes a closer. If hes anywhere near the pace in the Derby hes a head case again. Your point is getting hung out and I understand it. 10 furlongs is long way under pressure unless your Seattle Slew.
Post Edited (04-20-05 18:50)
CTC,
>CH you\'re only defensible positions are that you were referring to Pletcher and Frankels Non Triple Crown horses or you were referring to a move up probability in the 1st or 2nd race of their 3YO season.<
I am referring to general patterns among lightly raced high quality horses that tend to develop over a season.
First off, I don\'t use figures alone to come to conclusions like this when it comes to evaluating horses. So I certainly wouldn\'t use just figures to evaluate trainers either. They are helpful. But by now you know I think there\'s a lot more to evaluating performance than just the figure.
The best trainer handicapper I know cuts out the PPs of all the horses that a trainer has in his barn. He studies them to look for patterns.
However he also makes subjective judgements related to trips, distance, pace etc... when making evaluations. He\'s also sharp enough to realize that trainers have seasons where weather and good/bad fortune can change the patterns on a temporary basis.
I don\'t go so far as to cut out all the PPs and keep them in folders. Nor am I as good at evaluating trainer patterns as he is. However, since I focus on stakes races I look closely at all the PPs of the best horses trained by the major trainers (enhanced with my subjective views about pace, bias, trip, distance etc..).
If Pletcher or Frankel has a lightly raced high quality horse with similar figures to another contender, all else being equal, I\'ll take their horse every day of every week and that includes Bandini and Flower Ally.
Post Edited (04-21-05 09:56)