looks like a five horse race. current odds: AA 6/1, HF 9/1, Bandini 6/1, BR 3.3/1, noble causeway 11/1. they marked down the florida horses big time right after the two preps. i have NC and HF from earlier pools, and i\'m going with the florida three heading into the derby (although i didn\'t have bandini today).
How quickly everyone forgets. Sun King, Consolidator and High Limit were all the talk and now they are old news.
Bellamy Road will go favored. Negative four or so will look pretty towering over this bunch. But not on Friday will, take the late money Saturday.
There\'s a race next week folks. Most of you dismissed Afleet Alex 3 weeks ago. After all, if the horse wouldn\'t run for \"Johnny V.\" he can\'t be any good, right?
Well, THIS horse runs for Jeremy Rose. He also showed last year he\'ll respond when challenged. Some won\'t do that and you can bet that some won\'t do it on May 7.
Now there\'s a horse named Rockport Harbor in next week\'s race and, if he\'s right, he\'ll probably jump right over all of them.
I guess we\'ll just have to wait and see, won\'t we?
Another words the Derby will have twenty horses and will be wide open.
good call bally. you stuck with AA and you were correct. can\'t blame johnny v, look at what he did on bandini, but maybe rose pushes a different button with this guy (although i think it was the lung infection and fast 7f race that did him in last time).
Post Edited (04-16-05 19:21)
sun king could bounce back i guess. he is holding at 16/1. he was checked back to last at the start, then ran 3w/5w and closed ok. he ran the second best #. he still might not get the distance though.
I actually think this is a very deep and talented bunch of horses.
interesting fact - after AA ran a bit wide around the first turn, then four wide around the second turn, he ran the last eighth in :11.7! i didn\'t think this was a 10f horse, but he exploded at the end.
the few prep angle means for a good summer of racing
I dismissed Aflett Alex today for win bet purposes only becouse of the 11 point bounce and the price , however this does not preclude him from winning or getting back better than ever ... Rockport Harbor\'s situation w/ his foot is still unknown , it\'s really anybodys guess and it\'s something we\'ve all seen before . I was pretty high on Rockport Harbor after winning that New York race - he sure had decent numbers and looked fantastic but now I don\'t know...
I do know w/ confidence that I would decline to take a short price on him right now ...
I think this might be a pretty good group too. Don\'t dismiss Consolidator or Sun King because of yesterday. May 7 = different day, different track.
Remember, the Derby isn\'t about who\'s the best horse. It\'s about who\'s the best horse at 6 o\'clock on May 7.
CH--
I agree. This is the most contentious bunch in a long while.
Good for AFLEET ALEX, a gutsy horse with a big heart. Whether he can crank out 2 in a row is another question.
Lot\'s of tops going into the big race. I think the Fla. Derby horses will go off at longer odds than they should due to the 5 week off hype.
It\'s going to be a terrific race and I\'m hoping the weather is not a factor. It\'s been a dry spell in the east for too long and that\'s bound to change.
Good Luck,
joe B.
I\'m not sold on \'Alex being a 1-1/4 horse; the Blue Grass was typical of Kee.....speed prevails, and Bandini is going to take a lot of $$ on DD.
This might be the best betting race in along time (fast track, please!!) as Bellamy & Alex & Bandini are the likely favs, while High Fly will be around 7-1, and my Derby horse-Sun King- is going to be around 15-1! I can\'t wait!
It Will be interesting to see where Edgar Prado goes, is he locked in to ride either NC or SK ? Will Day be back? Anybody know out there?
If you were Prado, who would you ride (assuming you had a choice)?
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Sun King has had 3 two turn races now per my glance.
B.C. Juvenile
Tampa Derby
Bluegrass
His numbers haven\'t been stellar in those races. That and the fact Nicky had him in the B.C. Juvenile is starting to spell one turn horse to me. He had some trouble in the Bluegrass, but he didn\'t do much. You could say that of several of them in there though. To me it looked like one horse was fit for the race, much like the Wood.
I agree if High Limit goes Derby there will be no more of this rating talk. I dont think he rated last though. I think he just got outfooted.
My opinion on Rockport.. a classy colt being mismanaged by his owner. He could certainly win the Lexington and do some damage in the Derby, but up until now his body of work has been:
a) beating the great Galloping Grocer by less than 1 length (I know from the cut)
b) ran 2nd to Greater Good.
I would be interested to know, but with the temperature near 70 have no intention of researching it, how this field stands in terms of number of graded stakes winners who will stand in the gate May 7 and how many graded stakes wins the field has accounted for. From my memory (and I remember more about the races in the 70s and 80s), this field seems to come up very strong when judged that way.
it\'s edgars choice.