If the horse you want to bet against as the 8-5 favorite, goes off at 9-2, is that really value?
Betting against Sun King at 9-2 is tougher than betting against him at 8-5.
Bandini has to be bet against hard here IMO>
At the risk of being very wrong and disagreeing with the ROTW analysis I\'ll go out on a limb with Closing Argument. 12-1 is more than fair on a horse who was able to get 1 1/8 in early February. McLaughlin is a terrific layoff trainer especially going a route of ground. Nice line and the layoff doesn\'t bother me. A little slower than others but I think a top is likely. question is will that be enough to put him in the winner\'s circle? We\'ll see in 10 minutes. good luck everyone.
jim,
i have to take sk here at 4-1. need him in a few different pk4\'s also.
and i bet GNB to win like i told you... that was a killer. i used CS, but i put a bunch into the pk4\'s, so i don\'t even have that $80 exacta.
Post Edited (04-16-05 17:39)
Closing Argument is 13-1 and is equally as fast as Bandini who is 5/2.
Which one do I bet?
It looks like all 4 are going to be 5-2/3-1 by post time. Looks like another pass for me. I guess I have to hope AA takes a lot of money at Oaklawn (so I can bet against) or my only gambling today is going to be at Party Poker. :-)
Its 8 minutes to post, and I have $200.00 to win on HL. 5-2 so far.
AA is 5/2 co-favorite
Good Post MO.
Out in front.
\"Which one do I bet?\"
Closing Argument \"is\" very tempting at that price. He\'s an overlay on my line, but I\'m just not feeling it for the win.
look at the place, show pools. SK taking much more than bandini. tabor with a hundred thousand in the win pool?
I bet neither.
I bet with MO and Derby 1592.
Derby 1592 is the EF Hutton of this board
the only thing that bothers me about Closing Argument is the rail. I\'m not feeling ideal about it.
Also theres no sense in tossing both of TGJB\'s perfecta horses because unless you think you can get a 1-2 perfecta up they are all the same price.
I\'m going with Closing Argument and Consolidator as key horses.
Bandini,
He had the most gain and loose going in. He needed the money.
High Limit looked cheap
So much for the Milkshake theory they run one-two
lol
Impressive performance. Too bad he didn\'t go off at the price I wanted.
I can \"get out\" with Chavez in the Ark Derby
High Limit looked like he was spinning his wheels to get to Spanish C. But it was foreseeable. I needed Closing or Consolidator to get well.
High Limit has now proven he needs the lead...I\'m dying for the Derby.
HL didn\'t run that badly. True, he stalked a relatively weak horse in a moderate pace and never really looked like a winner, but he did finish well clear of the rest.
HL was bad along with the rest of the field.No derby contenders in that race.
i didn\'t see sun king 12 lengths back and closing five wide, but the race collapsed, he should have made up more ground. :13.5 last eighth. bandini has a shot i guess, the rest of those are good milers at best.
Other than Bandini this may be the first time when TGJB says buried race he means literally the WHOLE RACE.
I\'m not sure what anyone saw in High Limit that would make them think he was gonna fair better in the Derby. I think he ran 2 points plus off his last. The talk I heard about him was quizzical. He\'s one dimensional just like the horse hes gonna butt heads with next.
CTC,
He obviously doesn\'t look like a Derby horse off this race, but it wasn\'t all that dreadful. It was just dreadful relative to \"perceptions\" of how well he ran last time.