I keep chuckling to myself about Bobby Frankel, he thinks everyone is a patsey I guess. To paraphrase:
\"Well I guess we may see if he (High Limit) can rate. Hes got speed, if the others don\'t go we\'ll go, we\'ll play it by ear\"
Bobby\'s juice doesn\'t really work rating. What makes anyone think this horse can rate? What makes anyone think he\'s been worked to rate? 59.2 and 1.12.3 breezing 2nd and 1st fastest for the days respectively.
Bobby is busting this horse out like hes always done and hes gonna try to outhoof whats inside of him. From a pace analysis it may not be quite as easy as everyone thinks, but thats definitely what hes going to do.
Ut oh, now I\'m in trouble with Jimbo.
CtC
CtC -
I think he\'ll rate because, in the words of John Thompson after Georgetown won the Big East tournament some years ago, \"These are not the nets I want.\"
The race Frankel wants will be run in three weeks. To be ready for it, High Limit would benefit from some experience sitting behind horses.
Like I said last night.
The Blue Grass is not run on the First Saturday in May
Bobby needs more game for those nets.
If High Limit rates, I think you\'ll see him no worse than a length off Spanish Chestnut wether he wanted to rate or not. I don\'t think you can encourage a horse to relax with two minute licks and I sure don\'t see rating in those last two works, nor in Bobby\'s comments after the post position draw. Interesting time to decide you\'re going to rate.
http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=64139&subs=0&arc=0
Never listen to trainers, especially this one.
CtMC
Post Edited (04-15-05 19:11)
I agree with everyone else. Even if Frankel is confident that his colt could go to the lead, beat off all the challengers and win, he would still have Bellamy Road waiting for him at CD. This is a perfect opportunity to give him some experience rating if some of the other horses get aggressive. I wouldn\'t want to go to CD with a horse that\'s going to have to battle BR for the lead or learn something new that day. He\'s got to be teaching this horse to rate a little in the mornings.
The question is: How much more does High Limit have? Frankel didn\'t have this one from the beginning and the horse came from one of the top \"move up\" trainers in the biz. Possibly the lemon was squeezed dry as a 2yo and 1.0 is about all you\'ll get.
With genuine pace from quality animals for the first time and perhaps a tactics change I wouldn\'t be overly optimistic about a move forward. Everyone believes he has to move forward here second race of the year. Last time he was faced with a fast time and a stretch in steeper class he regressed. He\'s older and stronger now but hes moved up significantly in class for this race. The La.Derby in retrospect appears to have lacked quality. Though i still think down the road Scipion could be a decent animal. I think a 2 or 3 under the circumstances is much more more likely than a pair or move forward.
I think its gonna be a very good race.
CtC,
High Limit won\'t outsprint Spanish Chestnut early, but whether he \"rates\" or not, probably depends on your definition of \"rating\". I bet you see a similar setup to last year\'s Preakness, where Smarty ran just off the flank of Lion Heart (trained by Biancone, like SC). He may be lapped on, but not head and head with the cheap speed. Consolidator tucked in third a length or two off the front pair. On the far turn when Spanish Chestnut packs it in like the slow horse he is, High Limit opens up on them, Consolidator gets up for 2nd. No clue about 3rd.
Running just off a speedy horse who stops on a dime is not a bad trip. Not as good as loping along on your own lead, but still not bad.
Jimbo you interpreted my Bellamy Road vision wrong. Bellamy puts a game BB Best away but is overcome from the effort and fades to finish a game third.
As far as High Limit tomorrow, He faces a similar acid test with similar pouncers just behind him. Frankel\'s may not bounce, but they react when their favored running style is compromised. I don\'t foresee High limit getting to the rail as soon as a Frankel horse likes to and if I\'m correct in that in lieu of his favored trip I\'m skeptical about TGJB\'s perfecta vision. I\'ll watch the perfecta payouts but Im also skeptical the Frankel/Lukas perfecta pays 20 either way. My read on the value here is beat Jerry\'s two favorites out of the Perfecta and thats what I\'ll look closely at, though I\'m much more leary of Consolidator running out.
Surprised no one has mentioned the 7 pound weight pick up for Consolidator, Sun King and Bandini. High limit picks up just 1 pound. Also note the ground loss for Sun King and Consolidator. I think Spanish will have the lead by about a length going into 1st turn with HL right on his flank and Bandini in the 3 path. Consolidator will save ground on 1st turn , but will be forced into 3 path on back stretch taking Sun King wider. I think High Limit wins this. May be 5-2 on the far turn but pays only $5.80.
If you have High Limit in the Derby future bet, or in Vegas, today should be very exciting. (Future R3= $28.40, R2= $21.80, R1= $61.80). I have no future wager on HL, nor will I be betting the BG, so there is no monetary concern with what I am about to say.
If HL wins wire to wire in the BG, he goes into Louisville having never been headed in his four lifetime races. Sure theres other speed in the Derby, but for the next 3 weeks you think about Smarty and War Emblem, and if your older, Sunny\'s Halo and Spend A Buck. HL\'s track odds off a w/w win in th BG--4/1? And by the way your entire Derby experience is not 2 minutes, but 2 seconds. He wil likely have to beat the gate to win the Derby.
But what if HL is engaged today for 3/8- 1/2 mile by Bandini, or Consolidator, or the quick bred Closing Argument at a good pace? If HL prevails, he has shown gameness for the first time, but will be attempting to win the Derby in his 5th L/T start.
If HL was able to RATE and win stalking another\'s pace, you would feel better about his chances in 3 weeks than you would under the 2 previously mentioned race scenarios.
If HL runs 2nd or 3rd in this race I can not see Frankel wanting to run him back at 1-1/4 miles in 3 weeks. But HL\'s owners, the Wests, will surely want to go. I dont know if owner or trainer wins this duel. I know who usually wins.
So if you fancy HL in the futures, today is BIG. HL almost has to win today to advance to the Derby; any of the other 4 contenders (CA, Consolidator, Sun King, Bandini) can run 2nd, 3rd or even 4th and re-emerge in Louisville. Good Luck.
Interesting comments -- Pardon me for just piling on
1) Did anybody notice the odds drop on Giacomo in the Santa Anita Derby after the gate opened? Irrelevant now given that he lost, but possibly relevant on the other hand given that maybe somebody had special info on the bad 4-5 favorite (who, I might add, went up to Evens after the gate opened). I assume that the S.A.Derby has a pretty nice sized win pool, so it probably takes some coin to move prices at the end.
2) If High Limit wins the BG wire to wire, he reminds of three other derby horses. Air Forbes Won, a Baffert horse named Indian Charlie (I think), and a Charlie Hadry horse (I do not remember the horse\'s name -- maybe it was Private Terms?). I am not sure why I think this, but it sticks in my head. Maybe somebody else out here knows why.
3) Davidrex, nice message! I will try to be nicer. CH, apologies for slamming you.
SoCalMan,
Well, if HL wins today, he will be undefeated going into the Derby, which Private Terms and Indian Charlie. (Air Forbes Won is before my time).
I believe Indian Charlie was 5 for 5 or 4 for 4 after the Santa Anita Derby, where he got a perfect trip just off the cheap speed and beat Real Quiet. We all know what happened 4 weeks later (much to Baffert\'s surprise)
Private Terms was also undefeated but I don\'t remember how many races he had, somewhere between 4 and 6. He vied for favoritism in the Winning Colors Derby, going off at 7-2 I believe and not doing a lot of running. Chris Antley the jockey? Not sure.
CtC,
I didn\'t interpret your Bellamy Road vision wrong. I understood exactly what you said, the pace battle with BB Best does Bellamy Road in and he gets passed late by a few horses. I think it is ridiculous. Bellamy Road would have rolled in the Florida Derby had he run there, the same way he rolled in the Wood. The horse is very very fast and your pace theories with regards to him are hogwash.
Now that said, I am not saying that in 3 weeks, as the favorite, in a full field, with quality speed in the race (Rockport Harbor and High Limit), that it might not be a bad idea to bet against Bellamy Road. Especially for those people that think he ran TOO FAST in the Wood and he might bounce. I probably don\'t fit in that group, but can\'t criticize those that believe that. I can criticize you for saying that he would have lost in the Florida Derby because of BB Best though. Ridiculous. I only wonder if you actually believe that crap or if you are being antagonistic.
no its true.
bellamy road is counterfeit.
this is perhaps the best wagering opportunity since Arazi.
Anyone notice how Keeneland played yesterday? Not the turf, thats not handicapping, its a waste of time, i mean the real course. This is gonna be an interesting day...i got goosebumps.