The informal poll at the DRF has Bandini and Sun King as very mild favorites over High Limit and Consolidator. It\'s generally not too indicative of post time odds, but I thought it was interesting anyway.
Bandini 25%
Sun King 23%
Consolidator 20%
High Limit 20%
Curious that Closing Argument is being totally ignored at 4%. He\'s not that bad.
IMO, the post time odds will probably flip in the other direction. I guess this makes for a good betting race if you have a strong opinion.
This race is a total guess.
All of the big boys are in Derby Day except for possibly Bandini. So maybe he is the one with the most to gain or lose. But then there is that issue where he had to call an audible and skip the Fla Derby, where earnings may have been a lot easier to come by.
Some people talking about being close to the lead may not be anywhere near it.
Remember the Blue Grass is not run on the first Saturday in May.
High Limit all the way. He has the most upside of any horse in the race. Ran a \"1\" as a 2-year old. Was running greenly in the stretch and still won easily in the La Derby. (CH and Chuckles please save all the speed bias, uncontested,etc.etc. responses - We will see on Saturday)
Would take a half point lower in odds without Spanish Chestnut in the race though. The uncertainly of how a horse will react to being rated is concerning.
I agree High Limit looks the best in here.
The only way I can see him losing is if he locks up in some suicidal duel with Spanish Chestnut and Consolidator going 3 wide. He looks like a horse that will pair up or possibly go a little faster. IMO, Consolidator bounces. Mr. Sword isn\'t bred for the distance. Closing Argument will pair up at best. Spanish Chestnut is a rabbit. Sun King bounced last out and will improve off that one, but not enough to beat High Limit and is a huge underlay. I like Bandini\'s pattern and I think he continues to improve enough to get 2nd in here.
Boy, I sure do not see how this race will be bettable. In my view, better to be a spectator on this one. Apologies to all but Classhandicapper for how the following will sound like the usual phony argument we hear from Classhandicapper.
To me, there are a \'big three\' and the secondary contenders are not that far behind them. The big three are High Limit, Consolidator, and Sun King. From a pattern perspective, I actually like the latter two ahead of High Limit. Everybody seems to agree that Consolidator has a nice line, so there is nothing to discuss there. As to High Limit and Sun King, I like Sun King\'s pattern better.
High Limit came out with a great number as a two year old and went backwards in his second start. He is now coming back after matching his two year old top. Normally, that is very positive, but the pattern of his two year old campaign troubles me a bit. In the race of the week, there is the assertion that Sun King may be this year\'s model of Birdstone. I think there is a greater risk of High Limit being this year\'s version of Birdstone. On balance, I give High Limit a 33% chance of moving forward, 33% of pairing, and a 33% chance of regressing. However, I also think there is a real risk that High Limit could lose ground on the first turn and he is running against horses who, with a better trip, can beat him. He could easily move forward to a zero and not break into the exacta in this race.
Sun King has a beautiful two year old line. He came back as a three year old by busting through is 2 year old top. This is much better than High Limit in and of itself. His bounce at Tampa is something I view as excusable coming off an early season zero. Quite frankly, the Tampa figure would worry me more if it was a better fig (like a 1 or a 2). Also, Tampa is a notoriously difficult track for horses to ship into and his off effort there can be excused somewhat by the ship (if you apply the same reasoning to his Breeders Cup effort, then you have a horse who has not bounced). In the race of the week, it is mentioned that Zito has been training his horses to improve as the season goes on and not fire the first out. I suspect that this is true, and I suspect it applies to Sun King. In my view, the fact he ran a zero in his first out should not be held against him (I suspect it was as much a surprise to Zito as it was to people who follow Zito\'s training patterns). Taken from that perspective, there would be every reason to think that Sun King will be breaking through that zero sooner rather than later. I do not think his sheet looks like Birdstone\'s at all. Birdstone had an unheathly looking pattern for a number of reasons (failure to return to his two year old top for an inordinately long time being chief amoung them) and none of those apply here. I look at this horse more like Monarchos (with the off effort at Tampa for Sun King comparing to Monarchos\'s off effort in the Wood). I peg this horse as having a 35% chance of coming back to his zero and about a 35% chance of going into negative territory. However, I do not like to bet horses at the odds that his will be unless they really look overwhelming (which he does not compared to what I think Consolidator can do (and High Limit for that matter) and taking into consideration that he may well lose some ground on both turns).
Closing Argument and Mr. Sword are not so far behind the big three that they could not get up there without advantageous trips.
I think Bandini is a bet against, but how well bet will he be anyway?
So, apologies to all for not really offering an opinion here and throwing a wet blanket on other peoples\' opinions, but I would be afraid that Sun King could ruin peoples\' plans (while not himself being good enough to justify backing at his odds).
If the DRF poll is any indication of how the race will be bet, I think it will be unbettable.
I see the same speed figures as everyone else, but I think the major contenders are not seperated by all that much.
Consolidator and High Limit obviously ran the fastest races last out.
Sun King\'s last race may have been slower, but I can\'t take that race at 100% face value. He only ran hard for the last 2-3 furlongs and was running at close to a 12 second clip per furlong. In order to put up his usual speed figure he would have had to come home in sub 12s. That\'s not something that most horses can do - even very good ones. It wasn\'t like the typical race where a dominant horse runs his race all the way. I\'m not sure how fast he will run, but I\'d be shocked if he doesn\'t run faster than his last.
Bandini is a little slower than the others and has the outside post, but just look at Pletcher\'s overall record with young developing horses. He doesn\'t have that high win percentage because he picks bad spots and doesn\'t develop them. They make come out running, but they do slowly develop and get spotted masterfully along the way. He probably deserves to be a little longer in the odds than the others, but he will be.
Heck, based on the DRF poll Closing Argument will probably be the best value to use in the exotics. I just don\'t like playing horses in Grade 1 races to win off more than 2 months.
agree totaly w/c.h. assertion about c/arguement and the 70 day layoff. but his sire profile #\'s just leave me breathless. Could the # for 1m.&over be correct?If the profile is truly indicative of his potenial and the impressive chart he\"s developed....damn that 70 day layoff.
any graded winnings on this chart?..this chart reeks of a derby horse if only he had shown up one more time.....
trainer &tgi figs bang up ..but except for new top by at least 1 pt.[70 days out] these are not spring 3yr. old specific
Every spring a c/arg. comes around w/classic derby line and baggage that restricts its ability to excell for the first sat.in may. OOOOH WELL!
PARTYpokerON
my line on the race:
mr sword (30/1)
closing argument (6/1)
spanish chestnut (20/1)
consolidator (8/1)
high limit (7/5)
sun king (9/2)
bandini (9/1)
at the morning line, nothing i\'m too interested in. however, i wouldn\'t be surprised to see high limit drift up a little and sun king take a little more money than the morning line suggests.
davidrex: I think the sire profile of Successful Appeal (Closing Argument\'s sire) may be misleading. It\'s a very small, young sample, and Successful Appeal himself wanted no part of route racing. The Mr. Greeley on the dam side is also discouraging. I read somewhere that the reason Closing Argument is so lightly raced this year is that he\'s been on the market.
Classhandicapper: How about following mikemd\'s lead and posting your betting line for the race?
at your line consolidator would be the bet.
\"at your line consolidator would be the bet\"
you might have misread my line. i think consolidator is about 8/1 to win. he\'s 7/2 morning line.
I\'m sorry, at your line consolidator would be my bet.
Bitplayer,
help me out here...c/a has a 5 point jump from sprint to dist.Even factoring in that most of the sprinte were run at 2,and only 10 3yr.olds starting 26 times ..itm 77%...thats 13 of 19 discounting the 7 wins.
i\'m not discounting your comment[to the contrary],but every time I encounter an early sire pattern my head expands and my wallet shrinks.
Hey but this is derby egomania[wise guy ]time.Your take on this animal is right on and I curse c.h. for bringing c/a to my attnetion[only joking!] DAMN THOSE 70 DAYS!
PARTYpokerON
I believe you misread the comments about Zito and how he is training his horses this year (or I misread it).
Zito\'s OLD PATTERN was that his horses would come out slow and work their forward during the campaign. He used to be a total throwout with 1st time starters and horses off layoffs.
However, he has CHANGED his style recently. His horses are now firing fresh and early in the campaign and it remains to be seen how this will affect his horses as they get a few races under their belt.
Sun King fired a \"0\" first time out. He reacted in the Tampa Bay Derby. I think the ROTW was pointing out that the \"0\" is a good indication of how Zito has changed his training style a bit.
I for one, will be very surprised if the horse runs a negative number on Saturday.
I also don\'t understand your read on High Limit\'s pattern. He ran very fast first time out, backed up slightly second time out, both races easy handridden wins. First time out this year, he pairs his 2-year old top, again under a confident ride, pulling away from overmatched rivals. As Jerry has pointed out, it looks like Frankel is handling him care, intentionally a light campaign, hoping to peak in the Derby. If has any progression from 2 to 3, we should see it on Saturday, and he SHOULD run a negative opinion, in my mind.
The morning line odds are bad, by the way. Sun King goes off the favorite. I would lay 2-1 on that......
\"Classhandicapper: How about following mikemd\'s lead and posting your betting line for the race?\"
These are my rounded off fair odds:
Mr Sword 25-1
Closing Argument 10-1
Spanish Chestnut 35-1
Consolidator 7-2
High Limit 7-2
Sun King 7-2
Bandini 9-2
I would need prices higher than this to bet (enough of a margin of safety to keep me profitable on the assumption my line making is far from perfect).
Closing Argument might go off longer, but I have a thing about betting on horses in Grade 1 races off more than 2 month layoffs (don\'t like it). I also don\'t like to go that far down my list of contenders for a win bet unles the overlay is huge.
This line is subject to change if for some reason the track comes up wet or \"I\" perceive a bias. However, if that\'s the case, I\'ll be sure to post my view before the race. I\'ll also let you know if I actually pull the trigger on a bet. I\'m still sort of thinking about it.
Forgive my ignorance, as I\'m new to T-Graph, and \"sheets\" in general, but why does \"everyone seem to agree that Consolidator has a nice line\"? He went from a 6 to a 1 (a big new top). Doesn\'t this make him a likely bounce candidate?
SoCalMan2,
What troubles you in particular about HL\'s two-year-old line?
BLUE GRASS:
I think CLOSING SWORD will continue to regress. I never like \"bore out\" horses in their next race. It\'s either a sign of a physical problem or a problem with the distance.
CLOSING ARGUMENT: Not against this bunch and not off of the 2 month layoff.
SPANISH CHESTNUT: Souring; the only thing I can think of is what another person on this site mentioned....he\'s a rabbit for BANDINI.
CONSOLIDATOR: Ran his best 2yo # over the track....did not beat much in California but he did it impressively. Has terrific turn of foot...unlikely to bounce for Lukas in a race Lukas loves to win.
HIGH LIMIT: The most likely winner if you project that he pairs-up for Frankel...do not want at 2-1 or less. Will root that Dominquez tries to send and he losses ground into the first turn.
SUN KING: I was never a fan of this guy. Likes to run wide which helped him at Belmont but will cost him dearly in here.
BANDINI: Missed training and tough post...perhaps he picks up some pieces in the lane if pace is too hot and perhaps we can look at him as a relatively fresh PLETCHER ready to run a new top which he will probably need to do to get into the Derby.
For value purposes, let\'s try CONSOLIDATOR over BANDINI and reverse for half the amount.
Dear Jimbo66,
Thank you. You are in fact correct and I misread the ROTW. Correcting for my misread, I would reduce the chance of a negative number to 20% and increase the chance of the pair up to 50%.
As to High Limit, I am still giving him a 66% chance of running a \'1\' or better, so it is not like I am tossing him. I am just saying that if his two year old campaign were different, I would increase those percentages.
I do not put any stock in \'how\' any of his numbers were earned. Although there are times when looking at circumstances surrounding an effort may be relevant, I do not consider any of what you or others have offered as being relevant. I do not like his second Delaware number for precisely the reason you like it -- it was a small step backward after a very fast number. It would have been better if he paired up, moved ahead, or ran a lot worse. The pair up and new top are obvious positives. The bounce is not such a surprise for a 2 year old coming off a debut fig of a 2. The small step back can be problematic sometimes and a tip off of greater problems. It means he was on (likely not injured), but could not run his race (could not replicate what he had done before). It makes me wonder some about the first number too. Also, with only three races, he could really be an ouchy horse which introduces another area of risk. He and Birdstone had the same debut number (although Birdstone earned it earlier his two year old year, so B\'s was better) and look what that did to Birdstone. Birdstone also went backwards off his 3 y.o. debut (although he may have add an excuse). Anyway, High Limit is obviously a very fast horse, and it would not surprise me if he won with a big number. However, I do see some risk in him (both in terms of the type of trip I see him getting and the type of effort I see him putting out).
I just really do not see this race as a good betting race. First off, having only 7 horses makes it much harder to find value (the take is spread out over less options and therefore eats more of the possible prices). Second, the top three choices all have a strong chance and are all likely to be well supported. The fourth choice is the only possible bet against in my opinion. There are some long horses to like here (Closing Argument and Mr. Sword), but having only 7 horses hurts how long they might be. To me, it is just one of those races that is too tough.
Now, on a completely different matter, you said you thought I was wrong about my analysis of Point Given\'s Kentucky Derby, so I decided to go back and look at the chart.
According to the chart I read, he was 3 and 3/4 lengths back of a 6 furlong split of 1:09 and 1. According to Thorograph, he was in the 4 lane on the first turn. To me, that has him running the first 6 furlongs of the Kentucky Derby in 1:09 and 2. In fact, other than he and Congaree, all the other horses who were within 7 lengths of the 44 and 4 half were tiring badly (if you accept my wide adjustment, his half mile was 45 and 2). By the mile, it was only him and Congaree still standing to face the closers. Given what this pace did to the others who were caught up in it, he did not do so badly.
In general, I think pace is overrated, but I do think if a horse runs too (and I mean too) fast early, he pays for it in final time because it is an inefficient way to spend an effort compared to spreading the effort out better. This does not happen as often as people think, but it does happen and when it does, I am forgiving of the horse\'s off effort in that case (see my race of the week analysis and forgiveness of two off efforts by Don Six in Spring/Summer 2004).
Some people say that Point Given ran a poor derby because he only had two preps. It is interesting that his only one prep for the Santa Anita Derby had no ill effect (he was able to move forward off one prep down to a zero).
To me, this pace scenario is as much of an explanation for his poor figure in the Derby as the idea that having only two prep races caused the bad effort. People are free to disagree with me. Quite frankly, I am happy about it -- I hope gobs of money are bet by people based the Kentucky Derby prep angle espoused by Classhandicapper. It is things like this that still leave nice prices for us sheetplayers.
Hey SoCal,
I happen to agree with your analysis of Congaree and Point Given completely so you may want to reconsider it. :-)
Seriously, I have no theory about prep races into the Derby other than \"all else being equal I\'d rather bet on a horse using a method that has already been proven effective\".
Post Edited (04-15-05 14:55)
Classhandicapper,
Thank you, I guess. The only thing that worries me is that people might not believe my argument now. I do not want to be as rude as the following will sound, but do you realize how surd your response was? And yes, I mean surd not absurd.
You DO have a theory on prep races into the Derby, and a lot of us disagree with your theory. Your theory is succinctly (will wonders never cease) summarized in your reply to me where you state you have no theory (surd again).
Okay, one more try -- you believe, think, feel, know, have some sense, whatever you want to call it that makes you UTTER that there is \"a method that has already been proven effective.\" Please do not disavow that UTTERANCE as you normally do (people are sick of you saying things and then saying you did not say them).
I dispute your utterance. You have never given proof, and we challenge you left and right. It just falls on deaf ears (that is where surd comes in).
All you do is say things (e.g on the Ragozin board recently) like your complex ideas cannot sink into our deficient brains because we are looking for mathematical certainty. While, no surprise here, it is you who is stuck in (and cannot get out of) the mathematical certainty mindset in the debate on Derby preps. Your \"proven effective\" statement comes from all your earlier pronouncements using numbers like \'0\' and \'100\'. It pains me too much to dig them back out now, but if you actually join me in a real debate (chances of that are slim and none and slim just left town), I would go show you yourself again.
Anyway, for the part that will fall on your deaf ears, I have seen TONS (literally) of horses lose in the Kentucky Derby off 3 or 4 preps (trust me, I have lost lots of money on them). These are horses that looked really good and had no apparent excuse (I guess a few of the trainers may have said the track was \'cuppy\'). I also see lots of people on this board saying that horses often hit their top before the Derby and back off it in the Derby. All of this tells me that there is at least a modest peppercorn of evidence that MAYBE 3-4 preps before the Derby might, could possibly be, in some circumstances, actually, a bad thing. I realize how shocking that is to you, but maybe the shock is what is causing you not to hear it.
Anyway, my position (which you would know if you read anything I wrote) is that I have no idea how to train a horse. I suspect there is no one right way and multiple different approaches may work. I do not think anything is proven on this. I also do not think this is a relevant consideration anyway (but that is neither here nor there). I assume that on any horse I bet on in the Derby, there is always a chance that his prep was perfect and there is always a chance that his prep was deficient. And, I have not seen any data that would help me sort this mystery out (if it is even capable of being sorted, which is a big if).
YOU are the one who believes that it is proven that 3 or 4 preps is not a bad thing. Where is that proven? Bring it on baby!!! Don\'t, as you always do, try to shift the burden of proof on to me. I am telling you I cannot prove anything. YOU are the one alleging something is proven, not me.
That proven CERTAINTY is the ENTIRE premise of your \'argument\' which you use to assert that you need to discount a horse coming into the Derby off one or two preps. If you lose your mathematical certainty, there goes the linchpin.
Bracing myself for the fancy footwork bit again.
SoCal,
I don\'t believe I ever said that any method was proven to be superior to another or better for all horses.
At most, I am operating on the assumption that all the great trainers of the last few decades concluded that a minimum of 3 preps worked well and that they were reasonably competent men.
On my own I can see that many horses did peak that way.
I also once saw a study (in a handicapping book) that suggested that the average horse ran his peak speed figure in his 4th race after a layoff.
It also always seemed logical to me that given the demands of the Derby a little extra seasoning would help a horse. The fields are big. Seasoning running between/inside horses, having dirt kicked in your face, dealing with crowds, dealing with a competitive pace etc... can\'t hurt.
So there was no reason I could think of to think it was a generally bad idea.
None of this proves a thing.
If you would like to classify this as a theory, OK, then I agree.
I have a \"theory\" that all else being equal I\'d rather have a horse prepared traditionally. The key word is \"equal\". Under many conditions (especially odds) I would gladly buck that.
Post Edited (04-15-05 16:05)
First off since this is the TGraph ROTW, I\'ll take a moment to review it with the Tgraph figures but will do so after running down the field.
SunKing - Everyone is looking at his Tampa race and saying \"oh my, poor horse, he fell off\". Really?....it looks to me like no one wanted the lead, he sat chilly on it, repulsed everything that came his way and widened late in good finishing order. Nicky used Tampa in a different pace fashion for TCE last year and things went pretty well for him in the Bluegrass. Nicky has said he dearly loves Tampa as a conditioning track. I know something about that. Anyone pooh poohing this horse on his Tampa T Fig is probably in error. This horse is also far quicker than folks realize. My issue is 9 marks with him. I\'m not altogether sure he can run as fast as he is probably going to be asked to run this race and still finish strong. Beating Survivalist and Monarch Lane is suddenly looking like that and a buck in your pocket will get you a cup of coffee. I can\'t see where hes ever really trained on a track hes run on so I wont hold that against him. Tough Call, with the added weight and post I\'m leaning against him for the win, but Nicky is so very hot right now, I know I\'m taking a chance.
Closing Arguement - I don\'t care if they did put the for sale sign up. I would too. They didn\'t sell him did they? This horse drew very well, doesnt have to have the lead and is sneaky quick. I don\'t like his breeding, but that last race rocks and hes working beautifully at Keeneland. Major Player.
Bandini - He\'s a Fupig so my inclination is to toss him, but the problem is he\'s speed juiced by Pletcher and you can\'t do that. He\'s also much quicker than folks may understand. He\'s acclimated to the track as well. Still I\'m thinking the post/trip, weight, my disdain for his sire and the tough company is enough to keep him out of the winners circle. I\'m even more leary of leaving this one out of the top than Zito\'s and may cover with him. I\'m not sure yet.
Spanish Chestnut - No weight bugaboo. Is acclimating too but I dont like his steps near as much as Bandini or Closing Arguement. I think this horse plays a large role in the outcome. From the hole with a good break he rockets. His layoff and mud races have to be viewed with an eye towards less than top form in my opinion. Though I\'m not altogether sure his speed is up to the east coast speed, the circumstances, depending upon the track, could play in his favor to land a minor piece at a very solid price. Though I\'m more inclined to think he mucks it up for the others.
Consolidator - Suddenly beating Giacomo and Don\'t Get Mad doesnt look like much of an accomplishment either and this horse has LESS speed than most think and really caught a biased surface in my opinion last. Is picking up some weight, but has carried it before, and is working listen carefully here(Lights out). I like him to rate just off and move past some of the others late.
to be continued...
ok where was I...
Mr. Sword - I like this horses stalking pace style for this race and notice he was picked up late by two closers last. Theres really no closers to pick him up this race and if he can get first and only run on battling pace horses he may be able to pick up some pieces late. The weight is kind, the jockey change positive for Keeneland. I\'m not altogether sure he can\'t step it up a bit. The price will decide if I work him in.
High Limit - Jimbo66 said I couldnt talk about pace potential and bias so I\'m afraid I can\'t really discuss this horse. Jimbo66 wants to hear good things, so here it is...hes carried the weight and is working extremely well. There was something else I wanted to add about figure maturity and trainer impact too...oh well.
Now TGraph\'s modifications:
Mr. Sword - Moves further up on Tgraph, will definitely work him into wager.
Closing Arguement - Tfigs both temper and confirm my enthusiasm. The pace style and pattern are positive. The layoff is the concern but I think he\'s moving forward.
Spanish Chestnut - TFigs dont shed kind light on him. I still think he has minor piece potential
Consolidator - More or less where I made him. I think he regresses slightly this race but that can still be good enough.
High Limit - Right where I anticipated him, but can\'t talk about it.
Sun King - Has his work cut out Saturday is my belief and I\'m paying little mind to the Tampa number. Theres more important hurdles for him to overcome.
Bandini - Despite it all, I get the feeling he can move a little forward I\'m not quite as big on him winning, but I\'ll put him on top for one save provided he\'s in the 5-1 range I anticipate.
Good Luck
Post Edited (04-15-05 17:23)
CH--
I tried that last year with READ THE FOOTNOTES (2 preps) and back in the early 90\'s with BEST PAL....never again no matter the value.
You put 20 in the gate with a faster than average pace going a mile and a quarter for the first time. You better have some bottom.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
davidrex -
I\'m not trying to talk you off Closing Argument. In fact, I may end up using him tomorrow. I was just pointing out the small sample, with the possibility of being skewed by any number of factors. You mention one. Another is that only the best of Successful Appeal\'s offspring may have been stretched out to this point. Unless Successful Appeal is really something special, a decline in the five point sprint-route differential seems inevitable as the sample gets larger.
On the flip side, Successful Appeal offspring may turn out to be fine at 10F, and a lot off bettors may abandon Closing Argument because of his breeding (think Funny Cide/Distorted Humor and Smarty Jones/Elusive Quality). So far, Closing Argument doesn\'t seem to have gotten less effective as the distances have gotten longer.
Disclosure: Successful Appeal cost me money once or twice as a spring 3yo.
CH
You are truly remarkable. Have never seen anybody like you EVER. Here (in asterisks) is, in full, what you posted (after your edit whatever that was) --
*****Hey SoCal,
I happen to agree with your analysis of Congaree and Point Given completely so you may want to reconsider it. :-)
Seriously, I have no theory about prep races into the Derby other than \"all else being equal I\'d rather bet on a horse using a method that has already been proven effective\".*****
Look at how I responded to that, and then look at your \'response\' to my response.
How is it possible for anybody to ever discuss anything with you? If you want to know why people think you are rude and show no respect to other people, it is because you do not listen to other people.
SoCal,
I have no idea what you are talking about. So let\'s just move on.
CH
Interesting -- you did not understand what I said, so, instead of asking me to explain, you said let\'s just ignore it. Fine with me. At least you apparently read what I wrote, so progress is detected.
Forgive my ignorance, as I\'m new to T-Graph, and \"sheets\" in general, but why does \"everyone seem to agree that Consolidator has a nice line\"? He went from a 6 to a 1 (a big new top). Doesn\'t this make him a likely bounce candidate?
DLF--Consolidator went from 6 to 1 this year in his two starts. However, last year at 2, he established a top of 3-1/2, so the development is not 5 points, rather it\'s 2-1/2 points.
You have to figure he wasn\'t cranked for his return this year. Often horses need a race or two, if they\'re real good, to get back to their 2yo top. Trainer styles obviously can affect conditioning but as a general rule good younger horses should be running tops at least every other race. Consolidator\'s juvenile tops, 6-1/2 and 3-1/2, affected him, but he did develop and improve with time as he should since he\'s in a dynamic growth phase.
The debut 6 this year wasn\'t great, but it wasn\'t terrible either. It was his 2nd best effort ever, what we term an off effort, more than 1 point but less than 4 points worse than his top at the time--an abeyance figure. In other words we\'ll wait to the next performance to see where he\'s at, and come through he did with the new top.
So he fulfilled our general rule--new top 2nd out. He improved on his 2yo top, but not so much as to project an automatic bounce. Storm Cat sires early developers and his get on average improve 2-3/4 points from 2 through 3 (sire profile--TGI age columns). So Consolidator is within the threshold albeit just about at that limit. But the good ones might exceed it a bit. Remember the TGI is an average of all foals--good and bad.
Now there is a question as to how much more Consolidator might develop at this time but vis-a-vis the entrants here, he\'s within 1 or 2 lengths of Sun King at his best and that makes him a contender here.
And JB notes in the ROTW 3yos at this time of year tend to pair up, Lukas is good in Kentucky and Consolidator has run well at Kee before.
Forward movement is always good although tops can be double-edged. Too much can be tough to handle in the short-term but good stakes quality, healthy 3yos should be able to pump out repeated good efforts.
Welcome dif:
I wouldn\'t consider Consolidator\'s sheet a nice line. It\'s a typical Lukas sheet littered with irelevant numbers.
A horse with a nice line in this weeks ROTW is Closing Argument. Backed up a few points in his 1st rte try but has moved forward in every race since.
As to Con\'s 1.0: It is a decent new top, but it is measured from its previous best a 3.5 as a 2yo, not the 6 he ran at SA.
Feel free to ask more as you go along.
I wish I could go into further details as to how I reached my decision on this race, but the weekend is here and it's time to bet and collect. Having said that, Mr. Sword is the pick here - followed by High Limit, Consolidator, and Sun King. High Limit is clearly the one to beat. The other 3 are of no consequence.
TGAB,
If one wanted to try to estimate whether Fusaich Pagasus was going to sire early or late bloomers would it be better to look at his career, the career of his sire, very early results, other...
If I recall, FP did make slow and steady progress throughout in his limited career.
We view early developers as horses that run fast early and don\'t develop much as they age. By much I mean a TGI improvement less than the 7 points the breed on average develops from 2 through 5 plus.
It\'s still too early to categorize Fusaichi Pegasus since his 2nd crop of 2yos are coming out this year. Obviously he\'s getting some very fast 2yos which would seem to indicate that he\'ll pass along traits similar to his sire Mr. Prospector who got early developing types in general.
Obviously the mares Fusaichi Pegasus mates with also play a role, and since a season with him costs $150K per pop, breeders\' will want a return pretty quick.
I suppose early results is the tentative answer I have to answer your question but ultimately, obviously, time will tell.
Post Edited (04-15-05 18:18)
Consolidator is fast,but not sprinter fast.He is clearly a horse that wants to get into a comfortable cruising gear.He needs two turns not 7f or less.
His fastest sprints are 6 and 6.5
His first time going long he jumped up to a 3.5
Three weeks later at Lone Star he raced with a quarter crack,was bumped at the start,bumped again in the stretch and still managed to run a 5.5 which wasn\'t bad considering.
San Felipe a 1.
His three fastest races were all at two turns.Throw out his sprints and his sheet looks a lot better.
As for the Bluegrass:
Mr Sword has a nice turn of foot,but he doesn\'t sustain it so Bailey will have to wait as long as possible before he moves on him.I\'m using him underneath HL and Consolidator in tris.
CA missed some time because of foot problems.Even though he won the Holy Bull-he got an easy trip and came home really slow.High Fly and KC boy were staggering at the end of that race.I don\'t think CA wants the distance,but he could get another easy trip sucking around on the rail and hang in for third.
Spanish Chestnut is a real dog,and if either Consolidator or HL is lapped onto him he\'ll check out of the race early.
Consolidator goes off 3rd or maybe 4th choice(I sense Bandini getting bet)-has won over the track,is working great,hasn\'t missed any time all spring,and is co fastest going two turns.I have him running another 1 or better.
Lukas won\'t back off him now that he\'s getting good.
Frankel doesn\'t prep horses in million dollar races,and he won\'t screw around with his running style.He\'s going right up to engage SC unless Consolidator beats him to the punch.My guess is HL is quicker out of the gate and Consolidator will sit a length or two behind and Bejarano will try to ease him in behind or outside HL.Shouldn\'t be a problem unless JR decides to put Bandini up 3 wide early.
Sun King might not have been tuned up for the TB Derby,but Prado was working him over pretty good in the stretch of that race to pull away from some real dogs.He\'s only had a couple of two turn races,and neither has been very impressive.In both he was inside horses on the rail and seemed to struggle in the stretch.Maybe he doesn\'t want distance or maybe he wants to be outside of horses,but
either way I\'m getting rid of him at a short price.
Bandini isn\'t as fast as the 4 and 5 and has a bad post.He needs to jump up and work out a trip.A lot to ask for.
I\'m with TGJB on this one.An HL/Consolidator exacta probably pays 20.00 The other way high 20\'s maybe 30.Get Bandini and Sun King off the board and tris with Mr Sword and Ca in 3rd might come back ok.