I was really impressed with the ease with which this horse won, and regardless of how fast Frankel\'s horse runs Saturday i think BR wins the Kentucky Derby. BR had to have gotten a significant new top, but the clincher is that he was not really asked. He will have to face faster horses @ CD, but i feel this horse has much more in the tank( it was ridiculous how wrapped up this horse was through the lane). I think Zito\'s second best may prove to be Noble Causeway, i think he wants to run all day, in fact I think you could key BR on top with NC in the 2,3,4 slots with the rest of Zito\'s horses and maybe even throw Frankel\'s horse in between and catch the super.
Big you went way out on a limb and grabbed the horse everyone says is the fastest figure earner. If the Derby was today Bellamy would be about 5-2. You can have him at that.
I believe the fractions were legitimate but not fast on that track. I dont think you can compare the Wood to the 10 mark fourth and I dont think the 10th race horses were much quality and believe they they ran about a 10 on Tgraph. If they ran 10\'s I dont think Survivalist was much better. I know for a fact that every other horse in the Wood ran poorly with the possible exception of Survivalist. I also know the only time Bellmany met significant speed competition he caved. I\'m not saying the cave is gonna happen in the Derby, but he will certainly be tested in a manner he was not tested in the Wood.
Its not gonna look right on TGraphs pattern reconciliation to give Survivalist an 8, I understand that, but if Survivalist ran an 8 that means Bellamy ran closer to a 0. (Similar to his previous race). I think thats where he was. I could be wrong and Bellamy could still lose the Derby. Also, I could be right and Bellamy could win it, because a zero still puts him in the hunt. A bet on Bellamy is a decent wager, but is it a bet on a monster? :)
CtC
I have posted here before, and i am not a chalk eater, so if it makes you feel good to make snide comments about my selection then fine. I will wait for the numbers, but i thought he ran faster than a pair up; even if he paired he did it real easy, and i think you may end up getting better than 5/2 in the Derby; many thought Empire Maker would be about even money and that was not the case.
Any spring 3yo that runs a 120 Beyer ran as fast as it possibly could...BR was definitely asked. That myth \"he could have run faster\" is nonsense.
I must of missed the \"wrapped up\" part of his race. Anyway,if the rider did stop asking the horse, it was only in the final 100 yards or so. It looked to me like the rider was urging the horse even with a 1/16th to go. Of course, that doesn\'t mean he won\'t run well in his next start, but just an observation on what I saw.
At the 3/16th\'s pole Durkin said \"under a hand ride\" then Castellano was waving his whip at the grandstand just above the 1/16th pole if that isn\'t wrapped up i don\'t know what is. I just think that Castellano was a little pumped up because he can\'t believe how fast this horse is. Thid horse seems to be of the push button variety, very quick acceleration, it will come in handy in a packed field, i just hope Castellano can stay in the saddle.
Post Edited (04-14-05 21:50)
ant,
if you\'re picking 5/2 shots that are crossing the wire first you are definitely doing something right. key a winning 5/2 shot in a 20 horse field and you have a decent shot of making some good money. i like BM, but i think i will go with noble causeway if the odds stay where they are. zito has been thinking derby from day one with this guy, and i think the pattern is a forward moving one. i like the breeding as well, especially on the dam side. i will have to use BM as a saver though. good luck.
Ant,
A horse can still be close to all out under a hand ride. If Castellano used the whip, are you saying he could have run faster?? I don\'t think so. He was flying all the way through the stretch.
You\'ve posted enough that we know you aren\'t a \"chalk eater\". At least you posted your opinion before the race. Don\'t be so touchy.
Ant
You might want to take a look at Consolidator before you take the plunge on Bellamy and the rest of the Zito barn.
Does it really matter if Bellamy Road \"could have gone faster\" in the Wood. Barring something ridiculous in this weekend\'s preps, Bellamy Road doesn\'t have to run faster than he did in the Wood and can probably run a bit slower and still win.
He is MUCH faster than any other 3-year old right now, handridden or hardridden.
If HIgh Limit or Consolidator take a nice step forward on Saturday, it gets interesting. Especially if its High Limit.
lets assume for the sake of arguement Bellamy did in fact run a legitimate negative 4 in the Wood. When Smarty ran his negative 3.3 he regressed in his next start.
Add to the equation that Smarty had a more solid foundation of low figures. (If i\'m not mistaken he ran a Zed as a two year old). Everyone predicted he would come unglued before he accomplished major success. Of course it didnt happen and he even took away some laurels from a valiant Belmont loss. You can argue the point, but its likely he retired much closer to sound than off. The point being, if BR ran a neg 4 is it time for a regression? Especially if he encounters pace pressure and a more energy taxing surface, not to mention traffic or adversity?
Lastly of course, theres no such thing as a handridden fast time. Provided you think it was fast. I dont, so i\'m not as concerned about a bounce. I think hes gonna have to run better to win and beat my horse. But, I also dont think an improvement is in the cards. :)
CtC
okay neg 4 sounds better than a pair up , truth of the matter is i don,t know who i\'ll bet @ CD. Saturday\'s race will offer more info, perhaps it was a premature assessment on my part. You have to admit though horses that run numbers like this do not riccochet as often as they used to. Last year i played SJ to bounce , and he did, but not enough to lose. Nothing surprises me anymore. Zito seems loaded (is it because all the good horses gravitated to him? or did they gravitate toward the guy with the best chemist?) more will be revealed. Frankel\'s horses don\'t bounce, but i don\'t think Zito\'s do either; not this year.
You\'re all getting ahead of yourselves. The race is still 3 weeks away. There are still 3 major prep races to be run. To award the Ky Derby to Bellamy Road off his effort in the Wood or call him the fastest 3 yo. Nope, not buying that. If the race were today, I\'d take Consolidator but we\'ll find out more about him on Sat.
Rockport Harbor isn\'t out of the pictue until he paints himself out of the picture.
Someone mentioned Empire Maker. At this point two years ago, Frankel & Bailey were talking triple crown for him before he even won the Derby. They ought to have known better.
Smarty Jones - I saw his second race, he ran 1:21 & change over a track that wasn\'t particularly fast. Two yo\'s simply don\'t do that.
big ant:
Not to worry. Chuckles will reveal his \"actual\" selection 5/08 and believe it or not, it will be the winner including Bellamy Rd. should he win.
Gvido,
Good point!! Early on the 8th, I await Chuckles\' selection!
Chuckles,
I know raw time is pretty irrelevant and I hate when people mention it and use it in an argument. But very very few people would be brash or foolish enough to say that 1:47 flat in the Wood is \"not a very fast time\".
The race was very very fast on raw time, on Beyer figures, on T-Graph figures, on Ragozin figures, on everybody\'s figures but yours, since you stand alone in your conclusion that Surivor ran an \"8\", since despite his solid breeding, you don\'t think he could handle the distance and two turns.
The valid question for the rest of us that don\'t live on your planet, is whether that VERY fast effort will cause a major regression and make him a vulnerable favorite in the Derby. Not whether the effort in the Wood was fast......
Jimbo said,
\"I know raw time is pretty irrelevant and I hate when people mention it and use it in an argument\"
Jim,
The TG Dogma has gotten to you.Raw time is anything but irrelevant but of course needs adjustment. On the other \"ground loss\" is not always relevant.Oops, sorry I blasphemed.
The Wood was fast. TGraph said it was fast. Its fast. Was it exactly as fast as they say? I have serious reservations because I\'m convinced the horse used to make the figure was Survivalist and I\'m also convinved he is completely isolated for consistency on the race. There is no redundancy. There is no second horse to corroborrate the effort with. Without a second horse to reconcile the race you can say Survivalist ran whatever you want can\'t you? Some will say if you give Survivalist an 8 or 9 the others ran too abysmally to believe. I understand that, but I think they did. I think they all fell off the end of the earth. That is my opinion, I\'m cognizant the figure makers believe otherwise. I discount front end unchallenged performance figures unless I believe the circumstances can be repeated in the race under consideration. I don\'t think Bellamy has exceptionally quick pace numbers. I guess we\'ll see won\'t we?
I\'m also convinved that Survivalist is not as impeccably bred for distance as everyone else seems to think. Danzig rarely has filled me with optimism, (especially in his twilight years), and I\'ve never been high on nicks to Mr. Prospector mares and see no reason why this mare should fill one with enthusiasm. Shes not Con Game. Shug wasn\'t Derby high on this horse and Survivalist ran like a sloth in the beginning and end of the race. A pair off the Gotham? With all due respect, how?
The key to me was the race after the Wood. The New York Bred Slow Rats. If They scored down around the 4-5 mark I\'d more or less say everyone got Bellamy Road\'s Wood correct. I don\'t think they did however. I think they ran about a 10. I could be wrong. I don\'t know what TGraph gave them and dont\' make my own numbers any longer and never made them outside of Florida anyway. But I do know Aqueduct fairly well and I\'m not inclined to believe the efforts in the 8th and 9th were knockout punches. They were good, they werent zingers, but that may even be good for the winners because I\'m less inclined to believe significant tops were run, so in my opinion bounces are less likely.
The figure makers are in a precarious position in my opinion. They\'ve calculated performance figs for a distance race upon a single race and a highly suspect key animal in that race. There is no second race to turn to unless you variant with the 10 furlong fourth. Good Luck. Sweet Dreams are made of this.
As far as my Derby choice, I\'m afraid you will not get it until 10 seconds before off. It will be so close to off time, if I\'m fortunate enough to win for the fourth consecutive year, folks will accuse me of Past Posting. What you gonna do? :)
CtC
CtC,
Nobody said Survivalist is \"impeccably bred for the distance\". Don\'t redboard other people\'s comments, just the races......
You questioned Survivalist\'s breeding immediatly after the Wood. I said I thought he was bred OK for the 1 1/8. Michael D added that he thought Danzig was \"neutral\" for the 1 1/8, but that the dam side had stamina influences. Nobody used \"impeccable\" or even anything remotely close to it.
You seem to always have a reason to denigrate the top horses/performances, which is OK, we all have opinions. But your logic in this race is the worst it has been. Makes even less sense than your \"anti-Ghostzapper\" postings...
dam of survivalist is a full to seeking the gold, a very good 10f horse. the mr prospector/buckpasser nick worked very well for the phipps\', especially at the distances. shug was neutral on the horse\'s ability to get 10f, but said before the race that the horse should get 9f. it\'s not clear cut, but i imagine survivalist will try 9f at least once more - we will know more then. i don\'t know how you can question the TG #. BR may flatten out when running 10f at CD, but if you look at how the wind aided the one turn times at aqu on sat, it\'s difficult to say that BR didn\'t run a very fast 9f.
I love you guys , thanks for the comments. NYRA tracks are souped up on stakes days, in fact it seems like all tracks are souped up on stakes days lately. Easy Goer ran some big ones on tracks that could have been viewed as artificially fast, but he went on to be a pretty exceptional horse.(no disrespect to the person who signs ezgoer1989, i really liked \"Goer\" too)
Lets wait and see how bad my logic is. Ghostzapper has a hole drilled in his head and is setting up to one turn mile. Bellamy Road has won 2 races by a combined 33 lengths, has beaten nothing and looks to be a golden opportunity. You still gotta pick the winner and I wont spread unless I think I have a horse like Sweet Cat in my sights. With BR lets say hes 9-5 (He could even be less depending on the final prep results) Depending on how crazy the public gets with Bellamy I may go two deep, but I have my horse barring something unforeseen in the remaining preps. As I said I could lose to him even if I\'m correct a figure of about a zed makes him Derby competitive. Perhaps even ideally form positioned. But I think 9-5 is shallow when I currently rate his fair odds closer to win the race at about 20%. If he beats me at 9-5, I just say \"Good Race, I went against a shallow favorite in a tough race, TGraph prolly got it right and I apologize.\" If I beat this horse with a 25-1 winner everyone proclaims me Pope and Jerry changes my moniker to \"Chuckles the Magnicent Clown\". Its a no lose situation. :)
I\'d point out the track Records at Aqueduct:
6 marks 1.07.2
7 marks 1.20.0
9 marks 1.47.0
Are you aware that they tied the 6 furlong mark in the Carter, running a 7 mark race and that they only missed the 7 furlong mark by 2 clicks and that Bellamy more or less tied Riva Ridge\'s 9 mark record there? I think the two turn part of the track was at least as quick as the one turn part of it.
CtMC
I think the big question about Bellamy Road is can he duplicate that effort on the first Saturday in May at 10F against a full field of 20 that is likely to contain a few other high quality speeds (especially if High Limit steps forward tomorrow)?
I\'m not sure if he ran a -4 or a little slower, but I\'m satisfied he ran really darn fast at 9F against a weak Wood field on a track that sure wasn\'t bad for speed.
Anyone want to offer an opinion of how BELLAMY ROAD would have done in the Florida Derby???
I would love to hear the pace versus final # fans on this one.
CH--This may be right up your alley!
Good Luck,
Joe B.
\"Anyone want to offer an opinion of how BELLAMY ROAD would have done in the Florida Derby???\"
I think he would have won, run a slightly slower speed figure because of a little more pressure on the front end, and BB Best would have finished further back because of the damage Belamy\'s Road did to him on the front end.
Post Edited (04-15-05 13:54)
I think BB Bests legitimate front end speed would have been the acid test for Bellamy Road. Bellamy would have refused to rate and run like a cat on fire for the lead. Bellamy would have forged to a hard fought length lead at four marks...the race would have moved to the end of the backstretch and the turn with Bellamy unable to increase the length lead. At the six mark pole the difference would have been too close to separate them in 1:09:4. At the mile mark B.B. would have begun to slide off and it would have appeared Bellamy was going to shake free, but by then the closers would have suddenly appeared to be in gear and Bellamy would be inhaled by the field as if a large vacuum had suddenly exerted its influence upon him and he\'d have crossed the line third a half length behind Noble Causeway.
A one way pace scenario is a marvelous thing for an unchallenged lead horse to have.
CtMC
Post Edited (04-15-05 14:42)
ctc2--
Interesting. Some food for thought with 20 in the gate on May 7th.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Steve Crist has a new article about Bellamy Road at the DRF.
Chuckles:
I thought we didn\'t have to call you \"magnificent\" until after you beat all the logical horses in the Derby with your 25/1.
My best future position assumes that we will have the first European born Kentucky Derby winning jock since Jean Cruguet.
How come we haven\'t had a \"fear and loathing\" from Lexington post from TGJB yet? The spirit of Hunter S. Thompson would not be offended.
Post Edited (04-15-05 17:54)
Come on Joe B. \"Interesting\"?
Chuckles version of what would have happened if Bellamy Road ran in the Florida Derby is like my story of how many home runs I would hit off Randy Johnson, if I only played in the Majors. (although as many as Randy gave up yesterday, maybe I do have a shot).
Bellamy Road would get run into the ground by BB Best and get devoured by the field. Thank god for Bellamy that he avoided BB Best in the Wood, his 120 Beyer and -4 would have been an 85 and \"4\".
Give me what CtC is smoking. Just shocked that Joe B would even read it, let alone believe it.