Hi, any one have any thoughts on the Arkansas Derby? It will be on ESPN Saturday.
Well, you\'ll be surprised to know that tomorrow\'s DRF says that Greater Good drew the outside post in the BLUE GRASS.
Of coourse it\'s an error of which the DRF has too many. After the weekend, I\'d like to see comments from anyone on their accuracy (or lack of same).
I see Canteen being sent with Afleet Alex pressing early off that 46 blowout.I cant imagine Afleet Alex being 100% at 1/18. The horse that looks carefully managed and one of two that I like is Rush Bay . The other is Wild Desert.
Good Luck
This race looks a whole lot better than the Blue Grass.
The only value I see in the Blue Grass is that Mr. Sword on the rail. I think either Consolidator or High Limit will win. I can\'t really call Sun King a throw out, and all of these are faster than Bandini, who won\'t be 15-1, so I don\'t think I would play...
I would go against Greater Good and Afleet Alex here.
Wild Desert gets a little weight. Flower Alley should be value with Afleet Alex taking money. Andromeda\'s Hero and the rail horse Batson\'s Challenge look like super value for exotics. I like Wild Desert best, but I\'ll figure the rest out tmw. betting-wise.
Good luck.
HP
I like RUSH BAY, looks like an explosive line to me, hoping for that couple pt move, inside post/ weight has him as good as fav.
here\'s my odds line for the arkansas derby.
batson challenge (15/1)
andromeda\'s hero (15/1)
canteen (12/1)
rush bay (20/1)
flower alley (6/5)
afleet alex (15/1)
wild desert (20/1)
real dandy (12/1)
cat shaker (20/1)
greater good (6/1)
at the morning line, i\'ll be making a large play on flower alley.
mikemd...can i get you to book a couple bets at your line?
lol
CtC
This is a heck of a race. Imagine tossing the favorite, Afleet Alex, who shows 6 of the 7 fastest figures in the race. Only Flower Alley\'s last is equal to Afleet Alex\'s secondary top. Yet given the dismal performance last out closely following the negative effort 1st out this year, the lack of development last year, 9 furlong distance, and finally favoritism, it\'s not unreasonable to take a shot against him. Yet if he wins, we can\'t profess surprise.
Briefly:
Batson Challenge (30-1)--not a bad pattern but he hasn\'t improved from his 2yo top, so it\'s not a particularly good pattern either. He\'s slowest, gets in at 118 and gets the rail with a good jock atop. A new top wouldn\'t surprise but it\'s tough to see him improving enough to be a factor here.
Andromeda\'s Hero (10-1)--got back to his top last out, a good sign, but he should have done it quicker. Like Batson Challenge this guy hasn\'t developed off his 2yo top yet. Can\'t like that too much. Saved ground in last and will probably do so again although a new jock rides. The Thoro-Pattern (TP)gives him a little better than 1 in 5 shot of improving, 1 in 3 of pairing, but a new top may not do it and a pair won\'t.
Canteen (12-1)--who\'s the vet?
Rush Bay (12-1)--got back to top in last, 1st time blinkers, 2nd out at 3, a good sign. THe TP shows about the same percentages as the first two above, and although this guy hasn\'t developed off 2yo top, he is faster than the other two. He\'s bred to love the distance and should be coming late although a wide trip looms due to his running style. He\'s also bred to be late developer so can he, will he move forward here? Remember 3yos tend to pair in spring.
Flower Alley (9-2)--lightly raced 3yo, hasn\'t backed up yet and his last is the best among these excepting the favorite. Only a 2-1/2 point move in last, he could react but there\'s a pretty good chance he won\'t either; a pair seems most likely, espcially on 3 weeks rest. And that obviously makes very viable here.
Afleet Alex (2-1)--see above.
Wild Desert (6-1)--jumped up 4 points in last, an intermediate to big move. Forward movement is always good, and this guy is getting good at the right time. Another coming back on 3 weeks rest. Has done a lot of work to get where\'s he at. Tend to think a pair up is most likely which makes him contentious although ground loss is probable.
Real Dandy (20-1)--made a slight forward move in last but still has to jump to have any shot and another small move won\'t help. Five weeks rest coming into this, it\'s possible he could jump. The pattern is solid but sire-wise he\'s hit the development limit and just may be mired at this level for a while.
Cat Shaker (30-1)--shows a retop in his last three but shows a history of reacting to tops. He\'s slow, drawn wide, and would have to move up to contend. Has been alternating efforts and is due for an off effort. Has already developed 4 points this year and just might not have more in him at this point. Moves up on a wet track.
Greater Good (5-2)--has never backed up and made a nice forward move last time down to his top. On the face this guy\'s contentious but the outside post works against him. He\'s a one run closer, a good one, but a closer nonetheless, and thus likely to confront traffic. Pop was a sprinter and granddaddy was Secretariat\'s first good son. Granddaddy won the Travers, I believe on a very wet track, but at 10 furlongs. This guy could pair but still finish out of money. Three of the others are as fast or faster. Underlay.
Greater Good fan here.
Don\'t fully understand why this one gets no respect, but I do like the value that provides to the player. He\'s been favored just once in his career, and if not for avoiding a fallen horse last fall at CD, might well be gunning for his 7th straight win today.
The Ark Derby has little early speed which means McKee will likely have GG laying closer to the pace. I look for GG to grind out yet another win at playable odds and take another step forward here, but probably not in spectacular fashion given the pace scenario. Let\'s get Rush Bay up for place to provide some value in the exacta pool.
69th ARKANSAS DERBY, Gr. II, $1,000,000, 9f, OP 9th
1.) BATSON CHALLENGE (Vestal/Borel) 118/30-1: Big number on viable inclusion that was more than respectable 3rd in Rebel. Gets rail, knows Calvin, and has paired 6\'s on Thoro-Graph. Is likely to move forward.
2.) ANDROMEDA\'S HERO (Zito/Nakatani) 122/10-1: 5th of Zito\'s hopefuls took three tries to get back to juvy best TG 5, and now gets Corey and cozy berth for late run. Zito has had success with Nakatani, getting a positive ROI with 17% win clip. Moved forward over sealed Turfway strip in Lane\'s End, and is bred to run all day.
3.) CANTEEN (Drysdale/Espinoza) 118/12-1: Hancock/Stonerside homebred is late arrival to Derby Trail from FuPeg trainer Drysdale. Had diploma taken away when drifting out in last at SA (second such issue in three start career), a sign of ill health. Half to Strodes Creek.
4.) RUSH BAY (Amoss/Razo) 118/12-1: One of the ones we liked pre-season, Amoss charge regrouped nicely after hopeless 11 hole queered his deal in the Risen Star soph debut. Paired his career best TG fig (4.2) in ALW score over good New Haven Harbor, and gets perfect 5 week break for this. Can stalk and pounce and ideally needs 2nd for Derby try.
5.) FLOWER ALLEY (Pletcher/Chavez) 122/9-2: Lanes End surprise package a different animal since calendar turned and Choppy added, pairing sharp wins and boosting figs. Second fastest here fig-wise, behind Alex, and should get his chance in the stretch. Offers value at ML num.
6.) AFLEET ALEX (Ritchey/Rose) 122/2-1: Toughest call of the day is on this enigmatic five time winner who\'s campaign has been stranger than a Grateful Dead trip. Is he healthy? Is he capable at 9 panels? Does Rose\'s return help? Like the mile breeze and 4f blowout last two weeks, but how do you take 2-1 after utter fiasco in last month\'s Rebel? Your call.
7.) WILD DESERT (McPeek/P. Valenzuela) 118/6-1: Lane\'s End runner up increasingly has look of a division player for TC training vet and kooky connections. Just gets better and better on Beyer and T-Graph scale with experience and distance, and is sitting pretty for Derby with any check today. May not get ideal set-up pace-wise, but showed ability to stay close and finish last year. Pair up to Turfway fig (3) gets share in this as long as PVal can save some ground.
8.) REAL DANDY (Asmussen/Chapa) 118/20-1: \"Lacked rally\" in High Limit\'s LA Derby, but so did any horse that had hoped to close at the Fairgrounds that day. Asmussen bay is yet another steady developer and late runner in a field full of \'em. Needs to step up a notch or two in the figure department, but adds a pilot who knows his way around this oval.
9.) CAT SHAKER (Callis/Bravo) 122/30-1: 39-1 heart attack in the Rushaway gets late Derby nomination and another TV appearence out of the deal. Don\'t doubt son af Catienus is a nice colt, but reminds us more of Cat Genius (last in this event \'03 off listed stake win) than Eugene\'s Third Son (2nd in same edition out of Lane\'s End). We\'d be curious when Joe Bravo last visited Arkansas..
10.) GREATER GOOD (Holthus/McKee) 5-2: Intidab bay ridgling has garnered little respect despite Hot Springs achievements this year, but has quietly been getting faster (Rebel a new top of 3). Is lone entrant with route win(s) this surface and sports 5/4-0-1 mark at mile and beyond. (And the third came when he had to pull a National Velvet over fallen horse in the Iroquois). Wide berth hurts him less than most, but with questionable pace up front Mini Me will need to work out a voyage. Hard to find fault with the Cris Carter of racehorses: \"All he does is catch touchdowns\".
SELECTIONS:
If the Blue Grass lacks as a wagering contest, this AK Derby should compensate... A myriad of choices once you decide what to do with Afleet Alex and figure out a pace scenario.
1. Flower Alley
2. Greater Good
3. Rush Bay
4. Wild Desert
Exotic Players:
Andromeda\'s Hero
Batson Challenge
1- Afleet Alex
surprised how many of you like him. 3 weeks ago you wanted to send him back to Delaware. He\'s the class of this field
2- Wild Desert
wish someone else was riding
3- Greater Good
he\'s got some ability & he always tries
Don\'t like the rest at all.
bally,
AA will be the favorite. the first guy said the favorite won\'t be 100% at 9f, the second guy tossed the favorite, the third guy didn\'t mention the favorite, the fourth guy said the favorite should be 15/1, the fifth guy is trying to beat the favorite, the sixth guy tossed the favorite, the seventh guy doesn\' have the favorite in the top six. one other guy liked the favorite on a different string, but at 7/2 - he won\'t be 7/2. bally, what are you talking about?
four problems with AA last out - 3/5 odds, rockport in the race, a lung infection (which we didn\'t know about), and a wicked fast 7f run a week before the race. none of those factors at play here. i\'m expecting a good run from AA. i think he will track an average pace, and run well through the stretch. i give him a 3-1 shot to win in this relatively weak field. the odds will determine my play. i do not think this horse will fast a fast 10f though.
AA is gonna run better...they are scopeing him all along here.
Greater Good is entirely underrated.
Flower Alley looks dead game to me.
Wild Desert deserves respect.
Rush Bay has been right there.
I can\'t consider any of the others seriously, but Canteen has to be considered on Drysdale and the speed factor I guess. But I\'m not overly optimistic.
Greater Good just keeps knocking them off so I\'m leaning towards him, but Flower Alley really seems to have a resevoir so he has to be factored too. I think the likely winners are in order:
Greater Good 33%
Afleet Alex 25%
Flower Alley 20%
Wild Desert 12%
Rush Bay 10%
My guess is I may get acceptable (break even) odds on Greater Good and the Closers. There isn\'t an abundance of speed so Afleet may be able to finish better than he would otherwise without being 100%. Assuming he isnt 100%, I really have no idea.
I\'m really all over the morning line chalk so whats the point?
I\'d give my analysis of the race but you can just read TGAB\'s. I pretty much agree with him. \"If\" they make AA the \"favorite\", you more or less have to try to beat him. There\'s so many ways he can lose. His last was horrible and there\'s not guarantee he going to be at his peak today. The 9F is a question mark. Several horses seem more likely to improve and possibly move past him even if he fires a good race.
>Second fastest here fig-wise, behind Alex
Thanks TGAB.
Pletcher back-to-back. Look out Zito
well bally, congrats - you stuck with him. 5/2 was nice for the believers. i thought he would bounce back, but not like that.
Zito will go with his five and now it looks like Pletcher will show up with his two.
The Lexington Stakes is turning into the \"I\'m desparate for a Derby horse\" race.