As it turned out the track was not that fast, the one turn times (esp. 7f and mile)were helped by a pretty good eight o clock wind, which helped them both on the backstretch and the only turn they ran around. There were some fast horses who ran Saturday, and they ran fast.
The wind did not help the Wood time (once around), hurt the 1 1/4 time a little (through the stretch into the wind an extra 1/8th mile). The day held together nicely, the Wood came up about as I thought (which as it happened was in line with the sprints once you adjusted for wind, though that wouldn\'t have stopped me if I needed to break it out). I\'m not going to give out more numbers from the day or next week\'s races-- gotta save something for the Derby seminar.
I will say this-- with Ragozin having the NY horses too fast, he\'s gonna have some kind of fun dealing with this one. If he goes off them, he\'s got to give the winner even a crazier figure than I gave him. If not, he\'s got every single horse running in a G1 save one running terrible, way off their tops.
Beyerguy-- yeah, racing secretaries don\'t make figure maker\'s lives easy. They used to run a second two turn race on Belmont day, but that was too good an idea, so they stopped a few years back.
Yes, I remember those starter allowances on Belmont Day, hated to see them go.
Too bad, I wanted to campaign for a -3.75 for Greeley\'s Galaxy.
P Eck-- there\'s still time, I haven\'t done the day yet.
On any other day people would have been talking about Greeley Galaxy\'s performance. The Wood performance was so off the chart, people aren\'t paying much attention to his fine effort.
TGJB wrote:
> As it turned out the track was not that fast,
21.59, 43.30, 1:07.48, 1:20.46 at Aqueduct is not fast? The four and six marks are searing! Medalist and Don Six are good horses but debateable 7 mark horses. They got picked up by a \"good\" horse. This race is close to track record as well.
BR tied a mark by Riva Ridge set what 30 years ago plus and tracks are slower!!!
Jerry, with all due respect that track was other worldy by the 8th and 9th the other horses in the 9th just weren\'t positioned to toss a good effort in. That track carried a decent horse a long way in very fast time but it happened in part because it was very, very quick.
If you average for the day, I agree, the surface wasn\'t overly fast. But I dont think the other horses on the day were of any significant quality. (Mainly MSW and NW1X - Foggy excepted and he back pedaled in his race)
You\'re implication is that BR may have run off the 3yo chart. I dont think that happened, and if it did, I\'m discounting it. I\'m gonna beat this horse Jerry, if you went off the chart with him consider making it public. You\'re influetial and Beyer already has him at 119. He\'s not gonna be near 5-1 so theres no reason to not let it out.
Respectfully,
CtC
Everyone is probably going to disagree with me, but I don\'t think \"the figure\" given to the Wood is such a big deal. Everyone agrees the race was very fast. It\'s just a matter of how fast.
If he wins the Derby, pretty much everyone is going to have him as the top figure.
If he loses, everyone is going to have some reasonable reason for why he didn\'t duplicate it.
Even though the Derby is a high profile race and this was a high profile prep, I don\'t see it as something that\'s going to impact anyone\'s reputation as a figure maker no matter what this horse does.
CH,
THat statement is the kind of posting that gets you in trouble around here.
People on this board believe the figure is important. So important that we pay $25 for the figures for a race card, instead of the free beyer figures in the DRF.
If it wasn\'t important what Bellamy Road\'s figure was in the GS race before the Wood, then those of us on this board who saw the T-Graph figure would NOT have know that this horse was starting as 6 lengths faster than any other horse in the race. THose using the Beyer figures thought Going Wild was faster.
Smarty Jones was much much faster on T-Graph than on Beyers last year and many on this board bet Smarty because of that.
I for one, want to know if Bellamy Road is faster than the winner of this weekend\'s Bluegrass and if so, by how much.
jimbo,
I\'m not saying that high quality figures aren\'t important. All your examples of their importance are very good ones.
I think \"this one\" is less important because there\'s no dispute about who the fastest horse is. So I\'m not sure reputation is on the line in the same way as when there was a controvsey about SJ\'s disputed figure.
Plus, I think it\'s highly likely he\'s not going to pair this one up. If I am right, it won\'t be a reflection on the figure maker the way it sometimes can be.
Naturally, I would like the highest possible quality figure and it sounds like JB is giving it as thorough a job as possible.
Post Edited (04-11-05 19:41)
Jerry,
As I posted in another thread, race 1 and 2 at the Big A, the wind direction was with the horses down the stretch. The third race there was minimal wind present as the flags were not blowing out in either direction. By the 4th race the wind direction had COMPLETELY shifted to into the wind down the stretch and stayed that way the rest of the card.
Do you and your staff take this into account for each race, or make the figs on wind direction once a day?
When I went to the track at Noon, I looked specifically at the wind direction, knowing your feelings regarding wind and its effect. I even spoke to other horse owners who were with me in the clubhouse boxes, and then we discussed it again when we saw the dramatic 180 degree wind shift before the 4th race.
SJU5,
interesting post....... tells you what these guys are up against.
Post Edited (04-11-05 20:44)
SJU5
Maybe if I answer this Jerry won\'t get mad. TG\'s trackmen do the race wind speed and direction for each race. Taking the wind just once a day would make no sense as even if the direction stays roughly the same the strength can change substantially in the course of four hours - can\'t believe that you thought we would be that dumb.
Cheers,
George
George,
The reason I asked the question in the first place was because Jerry started this thread by saying that the wind had helped the horses in the 7 and 1 mile races as it was with them in the backstretch...well the WIND WAS AGAINST THEM in the backstretch in the 1st and 2nd races which were 6 f and mile races. Then he did not mention the wind change (with the runners in the backstretch for races 4-10) when he discussed the wind for the Wood. That\'s why I asked the question. There was a dramatic wind change of direction Saturday!
I DO NOT BELIEVE TG is that dumb BTW.
SJU5-- just saw this. We do get race by race readings, and Dave Litfin (who does our trackman work in NY) gave us an 8 o\'clock wind all day, actually had it more in the first. Which flags were you looking at? The wind currents at Aqu are infamous-- when they come around the grandstand the two infield flags sometimes point in opposite directions, at each other.
Whether it had something to do with wind or not, I did do the first two a little different than the next three sprints. In general, that stuff is useful, but not definitive-- like all info about wheather, track maintenance, etc. In the end you go by the horses.
TGJB:
I was siiting with my other owners in our boxes, the 1st 2 races ALL the flags on the right side of the finish line and the set of flags on the 1/8th pole were blowing straight out....left to right (down the stretch) for the 1st 2 races. The third race the flags were not blowing at all...the 4th through the 10th the flags were 180 degree shifted to into the faces in the stretch...we all took note in the boxes because we commented after the 2nd race on the wind directtion change and how that might effect the rest of the days races.
Check with Liftin because a lot of the owners in the clubhouse were discussing this very thing.
Thanks!
JB Said,
\"As it turned out the track was not that fast, the one turn times (esp. 7f and mile)were helped by a pretty good eight o clock wind, which helped them both on the backstretch and the only turn they ran around. There were some fast horses who ran Saturday, and they ran fast\"
Also there were some not so fast horses who ran fast.The flag blew AGAINST the horses down the backside for races 1 and 2 according to people who were there(Iwas not)
Everyone said the track was fast or very fast, no one had it \"not that fast\"
Race I NYB\'S went 10 and three against the wind.
Race 2 nw2x went 35 and three against the wind
Race 3 3yr MSW went 8 and 4(w/wind at their back)
Race 4 N/A
Race 5 MSW went 10 and one
Races 6, 7 and 8 fast times(fast horses too)
Race 9 Track Record
Race 10 NYB (SLOW RATS) go 10 and cahnge for the six and in a very fast(for them) 37 and two.
I assume you mean your figs say the track was not that fast.How??
Miff-- I wish I\'d seen the \"New York Bred Slow Rats\" race in the book. I was looking for that condition for Northern Stealth.
The Aqu track Sat was faster by quite a bit than the one Friday (good to fast), but almost exactly the same speed as the ones Thu and Sunday, so I guess the question becomes, compared to what? The times looked fast due to some really fast horses running, and a large number of chute races that were sped up by the wind. Survivalist paired, everybody behind him ran well off their tops, Forest Danger ran a new top (sort of, more on that in a minute), Jerken\'s horse paired, Don Six went back. Lost In The Fog went back, Hushion\'s horse ran slightly worse than his top.
People underestimate how much effect wind can have, especially on fractions-- we\'d have to run it through the computer, but my guess is you could add a second to the half for those 7f races, almost 2 seconds to the 6f in the miles, which wouldn\'t be that fast for the horses in question. The \"rats\" ran half a mile with the wind at their backs, and it helped them a little on the turn, hence the fast fraction and relatively fast final time.
As far as the possible wind shift, I\'m having Litfin check, but if it was the other way those horses would get BETTER numbers. And, as I said, I took off a point or two early in the card anyway, just off looking at the horses.
Michael D-- as we discussed, doing that GP figure for Forest Danger was a bitch (track was clearly getting faster, turf race on either side, no more dirt races afterward), and when he ran faster this time I reviewed it. Given what several have come back to run since, I went with the other possible scenario, which basically gives FD a pair.
I agree and I am aware of what wind can do to raw times.I also was referring to the fact that the surface itself was scraped for sure. The wind was sucking moisture out and they were still motoring.
I\'ll have to see the figs when these horses run back but I\'m weary about the surface that day.
Jerry,
Just got home and watched Race Replays of the races saturday from the Big A. The 1st race does not show any flags but the second race shows the flag when they hit the 1st quarter time and it\'s going exactly as I said. DOWN THE Back STRETCH. I jumped ahead to the 3rd race and it shows the wind direction change with the flags in a cross wind. The 4th through 10 races clearly show the flags now blowing in their faces down the final stretch. Right to left!
Liftin better check his stuff because it\'s right on the replays!
SJU5-- Litfin checked his notes and you were right about the wind. As I said, I had taken off a little from those races, and when we redid the day with the right wind I no longer had to do that-- they matched up with the one turn races that followed, then the track actually got slightly slower late in the day.
This is about chapter 10,000 of get all the information you can, but make as few assumptions as possible. In the end, you do your work off the horses.