JB,
Back about a week ago, before you and CH did the whole \"pace\" thing, there was a posting about Beyer\'s article where he gave Blues and Royals a big figure and said he couldn\'t win the race. Your first response to that article was to say that there were lots of reasons that he might have gotten the figure wrong, specifically ground loss and you theorized he used the horse who ran 2nd to key off of when doing the race.
I read your comment to be pretty strong that you didn\'t think Blues and Royals ran as big a number as Beyer did.
I am surprised to see the fig you assigned the horse in the Derby special I just bought. He is the fastest 3-year old at a route?
DId you change your mind after reviewing the race or did I not understand your original comment correctly?
Since the Godolphin horse is the co fastest right now going into the race, how are you suppossed to judge that isolated figure on Derby day.
It almost seems impossibel that he could run back to it, but if he does, he may indeed be the winner.
Tough call.
SHhhhhhhhhhh
I think this horse has a big shot and I want him to get as much bad pub as possible.
I think he\'s one of the favorites in the overseas books.
He was 17-1 yesterday when I checked with one overseas book. The main American favs were in the 10-1 range.
Post Edited (04-07-05 10:17)
Jimbo-- 3 TG points equals 10 Beyers, so you can compare that Beyer to the figures he gave High Fly etc.-- Beyer had the horse running the equivalent of a neg 2. He ran well, but not that well.
It is likely that Blues and Royals will run back to this figure given the incredible amount of success the Godolphin outfit has had in the past with layoffs going into G1 races on different continents. Sure, they haven\'t won the derby but if you look at the history of their runners in the derby they have nearly all run their numbers or tops in the derby. (according to posts on this board)
I\'m sure people said it was impossible for Lamtarra to win the Arc de Triomphe off a 9 month layoff. (i hope i have that right)
In any case, I\'ll take 15-1 on derby day for the fastest horse with that history of layoff success any day.
Michael
Ok here is the list of oversea horses that have ran in the derby:
1. EXPRESS TOUR: ran in the states at 2, ran one race at NAD. ran a 2 and then bounce to a 7.1 in the derby.
2. CASTLE GANDOLFO: No numbers only for the derby a 7
3. ESSENCE OF DUBAI: Ran a 4.2 at NAD and then came into the derby to run a 4
4. JOHANNESBURG: 6.1 in the derby
5. CHINA VISIT: 8 in NAD and a 5.2 for derby
6. CURULE: 8.1 in NAD and 6.2 for derby
7. WORLDLY MANNER: ran in the states at two a 8.2 for a top and didn\'t run until the derby ran a 6.1
8. OUTTA HERE: a 2.3 for a 2yr top ran a 8.1 at NAD at three and then a 3.1 for the derby.
Looks like they have run better off the oversea race, but most have been slow, but you did have EXPRESS TOUR running a 2 which is a good number to run in the derby at that time, but he fail to and bounced. Might this year horse back up off that big number?? We\'ll have to wait and see. Then again, maybe not a key horse but one to add into your tickets.