I can\'t hit the side of a barn at GP.
I would go against the Zitos here.
Vicarage is probably going to be more like 4-1. Even so, I would use him.
The value looks like Mighty Mecke. Klesaris may simply be trying to win the Florida Derby here and not pointing for the Big Dance. Definite upside. Plus I have a soft spot for his daddy, who was a rough trip fifth in a Derby where I made some money.
I like Violette. And Park Avenue Ball may get a break from the inside at a square price.
I would probably play Mighty Mecke some to win, and ex box him with Vicarage. Then I would use those two in some more exs and tris with PABall and WallStreet Scandal (with the latter two mostly as \"unders\").
Good luck.
HP
G-D HELP ME...TOUTED WALL/SCANDAL[UNDERNEATH IN EXOTICS] IN LA. DERBY W/TRAINER 2ND LAYOFF 3RD IS ALSO A MONSTER..11W\'S IN 36TRIES..58%ITM..NOT IN WIN HOLE BUT PLUG IN ALL EXOTICS...DIDNT CASH LAST TIME AND RACING G-DS DONT MUCH CARE FOR ME...LOOKING TO GET EVEN FOR HIS LAST RACE IS AN ACCIDENT WAITING AT MY FRONT DOOR.OK A LITTLE WIN BET!
PARTYpokerON
Stop yelling...
FLORIDA DERBY A REFERENDUM ON HIGH FLY, HIGH LIMIT
http://www.groups.yahoo.com/group/derbytrail
Many are finding it fashionable to scoff at Saturday\'s 54th edition of the Florida Derby, choosing to deride the slapdash field assembled upon the untimely demure of Bandini and Closing Argument. While the absence of that pair may have tarnished the gilding of the Gr. I, $1,000,000 centerpiece of Gulfstream\'s meeting, the 9f test remains the important Derby Trail stop it has always historically been.
From early on, the Donn Family\'s concept for a Sunshine State sophomore cavalcade has proven to be fertile as a past performance entry in the career resumes of Kentucky Derby winners. Nineteen times in 53 years, those that donned the roses the first Saturday in May had earlier participated in the Florida Derby.
And while many have criticized the re-scheduling of the race to five weeks before the run for the roses, the contest was docketed this same weekend on the calendar several times in the 60\'s, 70\'s and 80\'s. FL-KY doublers Carry Back (1961) and Northern Dancer (1964) put in an additional start between their dual April-May Derby victories, but in an era when horses race far more infrequently, a Florida Derby five weeks before the Kentucky Derby will be a concept that takes hold readily on future prep slates.
Saturday, Nick Zito\'s HIGH FLY will enter the gate as the deserving prohibitive favorite. Charlotte Weber\'s colt is 5/4-0-1 with his wide berth showing in the Holy Bull being the difference between him and an unblemished record. He drew a favorable slot for his near the pace style, and can move to the lead at Jerry Bailey\'s whim. While the son of Atticus doesn\'t really require earnings here to make the Derby, he is tough to look past.
VICARAGE was a solid second behind High Limit\'s 105 Beyer stunner in the Louisiana Derby, and this event is actually a bit of a referendum on the Fair Grounds standard. If you believe that the Frankel trainee is among the elite Derby hopefuls, then Todd Pletcher\'s substitute for Bandini merits a long look in this event. Vicarage will have the advantage of being outside High Fly here, and helmsman John Velasquez can move with High Fly at his discretion.
NOBLE CAUSEWAY was no match for Bandini in January, and despite his pair of GP condition wins at the trip, is suspect in our view at what is likely to be a short number... PAPI CHULLO stayed in Florida after his good try 4th in the Fountain of Youth, where we understand he was nearly lame. Seemingly healthy now off a pair of good works, the poor man\'s Giacomo will draw play here but looks a notch below the likely exotic players...
B.B. BEST is highly underrated in this Class of \'05, having amassed $413,000 in nine career starts including the game showing in the Fountain. He can take this field a long way if unchallenged, and trainer Plesa can\'t wait for the gates to open... If \"Papi\" is the poor man\'s Giacomo, than PARK AVENUE BALL is the poor man\'s Proud Accolade. Consistently accused of being two-turn shy, the Jimmy Ryerson-Charlie Hesse chestnut faltered when trying nine panels in the FOY after his Hutcheson placement to the aforementioned Accolade.
MIGHTY MECKE shows up here after scoring big in the Ocala Championship a fortnight ago. His sire was third in this a decade ago behind Thunder Gulch, and we doubt Steve Klesaris threw his hat in the ring to curry favor with the Hallandale stewards. Bay merits inclusion if able to duplicate stalking form shown mid-state...
Turfy WALLSTREET SCANDAL is a fish out of water for Violette and Klaravich. But JJ Castellano is the hottest jock in the panhandle state, even if Rick seemed underwhelmed to be involved in this at Wednesday\'s press conference. Chestnut is one least affected by wide draw given off the pace predilection... EVIL MINISTER came back to racing in a tough spot when crushed in Lost in the Fog\'s Swale.
SELECTIONS:
1. (5) VICARAGE: Pletcher \"second stringers\" continue to surprise. Offers best value.
2. (4) HIGH FLY: Earnings or not, son of Atticus is plain faster than everyone here.
3. (8) WALLSTREET SCANDAL: Expecting LA Derby grads to confirm High Limit in this.
4. (6) MIGHTY MECKE: At 10-1, must trust Klesaris\' judgment to wheel back.
5. (2) B. B. BEST: Pace doesn\'t figure suicidal, so feel inclined to believe Plesa.
Post Edited (04-01-05 21:41)
I agree, you have the right 5 horses.
The question will be the pace. BB Best i think is capable of improvement off last. None of these will be the derby winner anyway so winning this G1 race will be big on the resume of the winner.
I am boxing BB Best with High fly, Vicarage and Noble Causeway. in exacta\'s and In tri\'s on top and underneath both High Fly and Vicarage.
Please note who BB best has run against in the past.
NC Tony
I\'m a little higher than most on Park Avenue Ball. I think he has another forward move in him and I think it may come today. He\'s well drawn and he\'ll be a square price. I\'ll play him to win and key him in exotics with High Fly; BB; WS; MM and to a minor extent Vicarage. Noble Causeway could be used at the right price but I have a feeling he\'ll be no value at all.
Good luck to all.