The Preakness is almost here. It looks like Sunday Break and Perfect Drift will not be part of the picture as their trainers have choosen other races for them.
I guess the questions are:
Which horses do you think have the ability to move forward?
Which horses will regress from their last efforts and which (if any) will bounce from here to eternity.
By the way when analyzing the sheets do you analyze the pace scenario as well as analyze the patterns of the horses?
I am thinking/hoping that there will be more pace in this race than in the Derby and I am looking for War Emblem to have company this time on the front end.
By the way not that I am endorsing him because I have yet to see his Thorograph numbers but Easyfromthegitgo has beaten War Emblem twice. Once in January in the Le Compte when Easy came in first and War Emblem faltered in the final 1/16th and came in 5th. Then he was beaten again by Easy in the Risen Star when Easy took 3rd and War Emblem faded in the streach and was 6th.
Thank you in advance for your opinions because they mean a lot to me.
No expert, but for what its worth:
The first question is: what # will be needed to win this race. I\'ll hazard a guess somewhere in the \"1-2\" range. Zero??? hmmmm not here with these, again just a guess.
The paramount question revolves around War Emb, Medaglia, & Harlans. Each will be trying to put together a 4th great race in 9 weeks (2 range or less, older \"0\") Harlans is close. Early three year olds just don\'t do that. [They\'ll probably roll 1,2,3 now LOL] WE could run an \"0-2\" and be contentious, but I just don\'t think so. They might clunk up on the bottom of the exotics, but I\'m not that confident they will.
Request may have been a short horse in the Derby and had a slight move back to his 2yo top of 3.5. He\'s ripped several 2.5\'s this year which puts him in the mix without a big forward move necessary, should be a price.
USS Tinosa is a very live price play. His 1.5 in the San Rafael makes him a player. Bothered in the SA Derby and slowed to a 5.5. Missing the Derby was a blessing. He runs better with longer breaks between races and the two extra from the SA Derby helps immensley and has been training very well at CD.
No Perfect Drift or Sunday Break :-(
Crimson Hero paired 6.75\'s and needs a big jump up to get a slice.
Booklet has a top of 3.25 in the FOY big \"X\" in FL Derby guessing 6 in the Blueg. Rest may have helped, Prado trying to rate him hurt in the BG. Will give WE heat on the front end.
Easyfrom has a 5.0 top in the La Derby likely bounced a bit in the Lex 7???
Equality has a couple in the 4 range prior to the Aventura, may have repeated something close. Forward move puts him right there at a big price.
Magic Weisner isn\'t flattered by Smoked Em\'s effort in the Lone Star Derby, has 4\'s prior to the Tesio, with the wide trip likely has a similar fig again.
Menacing Dennis, who???? 5.25 in \'02 debut in a sprint, distance ??????
Proud Citizen: Preak will be 4th race in 6 weeks. 4.25 in Lex and 0.5 in Derby should cook his goose, but it is Lukas
Straight Gin: Zito runner earned a 3.0 in a GP alw. Every time he faces the big boys, he gets his nose bloodied. O-2- heading into BG. will wait for an official fig before passing judgement.
Tinosa/Request exacta might pay a bundle, very usable horses with legit shots. Final judgement later in the week.
Later,
good analysis - it seems to me that those that skipped the derby lack a bit of class. Perhaps proud citizen has one more decent number (even if he goes back a little) - after all he\'s only run one race under 4. He ran a 6 at 2 so not out of the question he could hang around this level one more time.
One has to start with War Emblem, as he is the fastest horse and the one to beat.
Ask yourself a question: how did he earn his figures? Answer: on uncontested leads, which by defenition are NOT taxing efforts.
Now look at the competition and ask yourself \"Who, if anyone can run with this horse early?\" Booklet? Lets wait for the draw there, but I seriously doubt that Booklet is going to run WE into the ground.
Medaglia D\'oro as the favorite? Based on what? His record in graded stakes is 2-0-1-0.
Jockey change gotcha thinking? Think again. What makes you think that Pincay is not as good as Bailey? Think Bailey\'s gonna make this horse run any faster? Madaglia is stuck at the \"2\" level and I do not see him breaking through on Saturday.
Proud Citizen continues to train well and a repeat of his Derby is possible, but no better.
Fact is, there\'s NOTHING in this race. A pithetic bunch that War Emblem will trounce on a track condusive to his running style.All of my bets will have WE on top.
Tesio winner has home track advantage and could land a small share.
MO
I meant to say Medaglia D\'Oro in Grade 1 races.MO
Mark,
I beleive if Booklet, his rider, and his trainer choose to, he will run war Emblem
if not into the ground, potentially into defeat. Maybe, not sure yet, he certainly
looked powerful finishing up in the Derby.
USS Tinossa is training like a freak,
he scares me. He hasn\'t really BEATEN
anyone of any stature so taking short odds on him isn\'t what I plan to do. If they ignore him, I\'d look at him for sure.
If Harlans Holiday is himself, do not dismiss him, his last work prior to the derby was
medicore at best, perhaps signalling he was spent. Watch how he trains and looks prior to the race, if he looks dull then that
question is answered
Medaglia d\'Ora is the latest wise-guy
choice. If Bailey was taking over for almost anyone that\'d be a plus. Pincay
is superb & I\'m not even sure why they made the change.
Good Luck,
Nunzio
Couple of comments...
Pace: I also believe there will be a much faster pace and this works against WE. His pattern suggest a bounce is coming and this may be just the factor to trigger it. But even a 3pt bounce could put him in the money with a rail trip, so he must be considered
Lukas: PC has not shown the ability to pair up yet, so I\'m thinking he may be one of those horses who is either moving forward or backward. I definitley expect a backward effort here, but again backing up to only the 2 range is good enough to contend.
Doro: Word was since they were planning on keeping him on the east coast permanently, they wanted a permanent east coast rider. I wouldn\'t read much more into it than that. 3rd race in 5 weeks, a big question mark, but he has paired 3 together so far.
USST is the sleeper and I think Crimson Hero has the best chance to improve, based on breeding (out of the same dam a Albert the Great).
A wide open race, even more confusing than the derby. let\'s wait and see the post positions.
Long time lurker, first time poster with a few thoughts...
1. There\'s a stats guru out there, I think his name is Ed Bain, who has compiled an impressive amount of data detailing the gate problems of one Jerry Bailey. Sort of ironic, eh ? Frankel was upset with the early race problems encountered by M d\'O, and so he responds by replacing Pincay with a guy who has trouble getting horses out.
2. Given the small sample, this may be anecdotal and meaningless, but, in the ten years or so I\'ve followed this game, the horses who won the Derby in the most dominant fashion have not come back to win the Preakness. In my younger and dumber days (now I\'m just older, fatter and somewhat less dumb), I remember watching Unbridled piss all over the field in the 1990 Derby, and the ease with which he won left me convinced that he would win the Preakness. In more recent years, Monarchos, FuPeg, and Thunder Gulch were all authoritative winners in Louisville before failing in Balty; Silver Charm, Real Quiet, and Charismatic cut it closer in their wins, but repeated two weeks later. My own guess is that the dominant efforts, despite appearing to be less taxing on the winners, actually took a lot of the starch out of them.
3. As a public service, I will post my Preakness selections later this week. This is so that you can bet against those picks with both hands. I\'ve had my share of success with the Derby and Belmont, but for some reason the Preakness has proven to be an unsolvable mystery for me; me only win in the race came in 1991, when I attended the race in person.
lost my last shred of expert status after tossing PC completely in the Derby, but while I am here:
Md\'O: never really stretched his legs in the Derby...JD might be the one tracking Day, and might get first jump on everyone. catch the JD/Frankel combo to win it.
WE: I\'m too damn stubborn.....NO
HH: his best puts him close, exotics
PC: ????????????????, exotics, ??????????????
Equality: excellent mud lines, exotics if wet
Easyfrom: see Equality (In Reality blood)
Official losing picks to follow...........
There\'s plenty of speed signed up which should benefit the stalker/closer types. I don\'t think War Emblem will be on the lead, Menacing Dennis will (or Table Limit if he goes) followed by Booklet with WE, PC and MO stalking. Speed has a history of collapsing in this race. I think it\'s Bailey\'s race to lose. If he isn\'t worn out, HH has a shot. Prado used to own this track. Should be a good race.
I agree Nunzio. You don\'t take Pincay off. Medagila was a horse due for improvement in this race even without the problems last. If he does fair better it won\'t be Jerry Bailey. I despise the move so much I may bet to beat d\'Oro now. Frankel is playing biological games with his horses. He had a cough pre Derby and I really think he\'s gonna be cranked for the Preakness. I think he can run it like the Wood and may even be more horse than he was at Aqueduct. CryBobby is certainly talking like he will be. (Take that with a chunk of salt, cause the SOB is all B.S. anyway)
I\'m not sure what I\'m gonna do yet. I\'ll say this If Harlan\'s Holiday can be at Booklet\'s throatlatch so quickly in the Bluegrass (and I believe that effort took a bit out of him) I don\'t have any concern about War Emblem putting Booklet Away unless Ward sends Booklet on a kamikazee run. Book couldnt get 9 panels. Without severe bias I don\'t see why he should get 9.5.
No endorsement for WE yet. I have a little concern over the 3 good races in a row. Probably not enough to rule WE a toss. But just not sure yet.
Tabitha
Being a big fan of Picay, I was sad to see him replaced on Md\'O. JD, however, is the choice of every major outfit in the world when it comes to the big races. Whether it\'s Tabor, Godolphin, Phipps, Baffert, Lucas, or Mott, they all turn to JD when the big money is on the line. How can you argue against that list?? As for the stats guru Ed Bain, ask him where the horses finish in the classic races, I think JD might have an edge in that category.
I love Pincay as well , but J.D.Racerider has an uncanny knack for staying out of trouble and usually finds a nice spot in which to lay .J.D.wins big races ,especially at 9 to 12 furlongs he makes great decisions in big races .The Grindstone Derby always comes to mind ,breaks from way outside 15 or 16 and is never more than 2 wide in the race .If I owned a horse of that caliber in that kind of race ,if he\'s available you have to go with J.D. Look at what he\'s done in
1 1/4 miles races B.C.Classic won 3 times ,the Dubai Classic won 5 times ,The Ky Derby won 2 times .I agree he attracts the best horses ,but much of that is on merit.I was at Saratoga for the Jim Dandy ,Mig had put away most of the comp in the race and must of thought he stole the race on Free of Love ,then here comes J.D. to snatch the victory with a powerful left-handed thrashing ,typical of this guy \'s ability.I hate Bailey from a value standpoint ,but from a buisness standpoint you have to go with him.
This is War Emblems race to lose, but he
won\'t! \'Harlan is the classic Derby letdown, and will come back STRONG. Might be a cold
exacta. Tinosa will be everybody\'s wiseguy
horse will be an underlay, and flop. PC may
not get the trip he wants. Booklet will not
be sacrificed, not with Day up! The Lukas
rabbit is a fraud, and will have little impact. The horse that interest me is Equality; trained by a rising star, and
sitting on a good effort-use in exotics.
Don\'t like Medaglia; may have done too
much too soon!
Insane? Drunk on Mint Juileps? Tainted because a horse with a one-month break wins a race? Perhaps. Hello my friend. War Emblem to win the Preakness. Ummm. No. I doubt seriously. I think he\'s a fluke. A win for the Prince and Baffert, who wanted something desperately. He is good PR. He hid the horse he had so no one knew. He can\'t be controlled. And even Booklet will out run him to the end. This game, pace. Watch and see! Don\'t shut out Medagalia D\'oro just yet. See if the colt can\'t pace himself right across the finish line to numero uno!