Michael-- here are the sheets for the Fountain Of Youth. As you can see, it was very tight-- tough to see how you could make a case for giving them better.
http://www.thorograph.com/hold/foy2k5.pdf
TGJB -
A couple of questions:
Why did High Fly get a better figure than Bandini, given that Bandini was one path wider on each turn (totaling 2 lengths of ground loss) and was beaten less than a length?
I\'m interested in your conclusion that the figures are tight. Using the ThoroPattern definition of a top, you have only one horse running one (Bandini), and these are spring 3yos. Can you you point to any figures that wouldn\'t make sense if you made the race a point or two faster?
Bandini would have gotten a slightly better figure if they had both been at equal weights, but High Fly spotted Bandini 4 pounds.
The other question is more complicated, and interesting, and gives a good insight into how we make figures. First of all, I don\'t look at the Thoro-Patterns when making figures for a race, but I went ahead and averaged the percentages of the horses going INTO the race (different than the ones that appear on the sheets now that they ran what they ran). In the \"new top\" category (meaning, more than one point better), it came up just under 15%, and just under 30% for the \"pairs\" (meaning within a point either way). It would certainly be within the normal range if anywhere from zero to three horses ran new tops, but one out of the nine happens to be the closest you can get to 15%, and 4 pairing tops (44%) is certainly close to the norm.
But that\'s not how we do it. Leaving aside the surrounding races and any other info, what we are doing is looking at various scenarios, to see which fit the best. Try any other way to do it, and you\'ll see what happens-- the only other one which makes any sense at all is to take off two points, which pairs High Fly and Park Avenue Ball, but if you do that you will have 5 of the 9 horses (55%) running new tops. Statistics aside, logic tells you that it is far more likely that a group of horses (as opposed to ONE horse) would run almost exactly back to their previously established maximum level, than choose the exact same day to improve on that level by almost exactly the same amount.
Interesting question. I guess it\'s fair to say that we think in those percentage terms in an intuitive way, but it would be wrong to apply them rigidly to small population groups. Using it as a check on LARGER groups is another story... hmmm.
Attached find the sheets (and Thoro-Patterns) going into the race. To see how they ran in the race, see the first post in this string.
http://www.thorograph.com/hold/foy-pre2k5.pdf
I don\'t see any reason anyone should question the figure for the FoY based on Wild Desert\'s performance in the Lane\'s End or anything else we\'ve seen to this point.
These are 3YOs.
This was WD\'s 2nd race off a little freshening etc... He could easily have moved forward a bit.
Plus, the track was a mess. It\'s obvious that a few horses didn\'t handle it and perhaps a couple loved it.
For example, even if you hated Texcess, he obviously can\'t be that bad. Either something happened to him, he didn\'t handle the track, or he needs the blinkers.
Unless everyone comes out of the FOY running better than expected, that figure looks fine to me.
Looks like BANDINI has a nice pattern going for him. A forward move in the Florida Derby would certainly make him a top contender for the Roses.
He also has something that I always look for with young 3yos. A nice race going 7f while up or near the lead, or middle moving within the race (no plodder wins, please). This should be late in their 2yo or early in their 3yo campaign. Woody Stephens prescribed that solid 7f races translated well to 1 1/4. Hell, who am i to argue or disagree with a legend.
SMARTY JONES, UNBRIDLED, MONARCHOS, SILVER CHARM immediately come to mind. I am not impressed with easy Derby prep wins at 1 1/16 ( see CONSOLIDATOR, HIGH LIMIT) until they are backed up with solid races at 1 1/8.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
TGJB -
Thanks for the thorough response. I think I\'m starting to understand. I guess a lot of your approach to figure-making comes down to the intuition (handicapping in hindsight?) of the figure maker: aided by having ground loss, weight carried, etc. are already built in; guided by information on race time, track speed, wind direction, etc.; and validated by the fact that the figures don\'t get out of whack over time.
Joe B.
I was also impressed with Bandini, but remember that in the post race interview Johnny V. said he was very studdish. Potential meltdown if Sweet Cat goes to the dance? Potential meltdown even if she doesn\'t
run?
After last years Derby and the day of racing at Latonia last Saturday, I think we are all hoping that this years Derby is run over a fair, relatively dry surface.
richiebee--
I\'m going down to Gulfstream this weekend so I\'ll get to see if BANDINI has calmed down any.
By the way, Canani says that SWEET CATOMINE is the best filly ever. I guess I can start taking down those RUFFIAN pictures I have in my den.
Good Luck,
Joe B.