White Mercedes wins two... again!
ROSES IN MAY took the Dubai World Cup at 1-1 for Romans.
FLOWER ALLEY won the 600k Lanes End at 10-1 for Pletcher!
Hey... why handicap?
JohnTChance
That\'s the best you could come up with? . . .
You\'re right. He really won THREE!
SARATOGA COUNTY scored in the Dubai Sprint at 6-1 for Weaver!
JohnTChance
Sorry . . . I didn\'t realize it was the retarded hour . . .
Why did he miss with Proud Accolade?
In the past three years or so [with White Mercedes], so many of the ThoroGraph sheets of Pletcher\'s horses have shown that explosive performance off a layoff in the early part of the Gulfstream meet. [For PROUD ACCOLADE, that was the 3 (taken up) when he ran away and hid in the Hutcheson.] Your average horseplaying shnook with ninefingers - me included? - might naturally figure these \"maturing\" three year olds will move forward next out. After all, they\'re \"growing\" right? But a large sampling of Pletcher sheets - especially his 3 yr. olds - show that these off-the-layoff explosions usually are followed by BACKWARD moves. Visual aids are really needed here to show tangible evidence of this. There also is the idea that PROUD ACCOLADE\'S training had been interrupted and that he ALREADY had been injected last year to run a 1 [!]. His reaction to that 1 was two severe negative moves. So why shouldn\'t he do the same here?
On the other hand, FLOWER ALLEY (with the same green, yo-yo trip - up close, then dropping back, then preposterously coming on again late when he went into \"Oscar drive\") reminds me of the yo-yo winning trip of MEDAGLIA D\'ORO\'s first win out west in a Derby prep for Frankel. Was it the San Rafael? Same vet. Same \"growing into the steroids\" forward move. Unlike PROUD ACCOLADE, FLOWER ALLEY had worked well after his layoff try - the 5. It was pretty obvious he was going to move forward and that HE, not PROUD ACCOLADE, was what Pletcher was there for. Was his March 13th workout really \"the best workout of the entire winter at PmM\" like I think was mentionned on the telecast?
At 10-1, FLOWER ALLEY was the play. PROUD ACCOLADE did the same thing BIRDSTONE did last year at Turfway. Tube!
For weeks now, after the fact, I\'ve tried to contribute the idea that the big boys [backed by White Mercedes] win the big races. I apologise for trying to hammer that idea home weekend after weekend - as if I have a clue. Feel free to ridicule me.
I\'ll gladly take the 10-1 and $591 double.
JohnTChance
pardon my ignorance...what is white mercedes?
shan:
white mercedes,allday sucker,juice meister,etc. are all meant to reference a certain vet[could it be s. allday?]vet to the stars of trainers,owners,breeders in the everlasting pursuit of truth and giving an animal the ability to run faster,longer,and for longer stretch of time than EVER BEFORE.
sounds a little futuristic but the horse game having never been on straight and narrow seems to be able to disguise this phenomenon longer than human athletic competition[how ya goin to subpeona a nag to congress?]
long time horse friend has for years[since md. legalized lasix and dutrow was forced to flee to ny.because the stuff he had was better than lasix]insisted that industry should make everything legal and let free enterprise level the field.
with casino money inflating purses,it seems imo that slots and computer batchingw/offshore discounts have brought this game into and a little beyond the 21st century.
maybe michael jackson isnt a freak at all...but rather a picture of what is to come PARTY poker ON
Shanahan:
What D-Rex was trying to tell you in his inimitable way is that one vet, Dr. Steven Allday, currently treats many of the star performers from the barns of Frankel, Pletcher and Dutrow. Dr. Allday apparently drives a white Mercedes.
I thought I had created a diverse post earlier, mentioning the Maktoum family and Nolan Ryan within a few lines of each other, but D-Rex topped me with Rich Dutrow and Michael Jackson in the same post. (Don\'t worry, Mr King of Pop, you are being tried in the same state that allowed Robert Blake and OJ Simpson to walk the streets, and allows Jeff Mullins to continue to ply his trade).
D-Rex did bring up an interesting notion, one that has been discussed for at least the last 30 years. In D-Rex\'s words \"the industry should make everything legal and let free enterprise level the field\". I guess we could call this the \"Amsterdam\" solution.
In the old days, as recently as say ten years ago, there was an old guard who contended that the effects of performance enhancing drugs and treatments would have long term deleterious effects on the entire throughbred gene pool. There were still enough \"hay oats and water\" trainers around having success so that this old guard could contend that performance enhancing drugs were not necessary to be competitive.
The implication seemed to be that the prevalence of performance enhancing drugs would result in a breed which would become slower, less sound and less consistent in future generations.
In my opinion, it may be in the 21st Century that the breeders will do more damage to the future well being of the breed than the so called \"supertrainers\". Consider if you will:
In days gone by, top stallions were bred 40- 60 times per year. Some now cover 100- 120 mares per year, and others are shuttled between two hemispheres and cover nearly 200 mares per year. I am not familiar enough with the breeding shed to say for certain, but would feel safe to assume that the increased activity necessitates the use of some sort of performance enhancing medication (\"erections which last for 4 hours, though not common...\").
The chapter in Glenye Cain\'s \"Home Run Horse\" about the cosmetic surgeries which are performed on weanlings and yearlings is very scary. I wonder what an old time horseman such as EP Taylor would feel about this? Basically animals with conformation defects are being surgically straightened. Unfortunately, while the crooked leg is straightened, the crooked gene still exists. These carriers of the crooked gene, having been surgically straightened, will bring more money at the sales and will be bred more readily (and at higher levels) than they would have been in the past. The result: a very crooked breed, in need of constant surgical correction.
What about the fact that 2YOs in training are selling for 5 million dollars based on their ability to breeze AN EIGHTH OF A MILE in a fast time? This is where I would look for abuses of performance enhancing drugs because never again in a racehorse\'s career will he/ she be able to earn such a large \"purse\" for such a short dash.
So I am on the record as saying it now--as long as pinhooking and stallion syndication continue to offer profits out of proportion to any reality, look for the abuses of performance enhancing drugs and treatments in the breeding shed and at the 2YO in training sales. This is where we can see the real potential for damage to the breed.
When the White Mercedes turns up at Calder or Ocala in February, the real problems may be starting.
Post Edited (03-28-05 04:29)
they cloned a sheep...baaa
they cloned a cow.....moo
now lets see...
what barnyard animal would really
be an instant success[only the french would be concerned about cosumption problems]
names for the product or procecdure like:
white mercedes[color optional]
frisky frankel[gendre optional]
pletcher perfomance[goes both short & long]
i used to think artificial insemination was way overdue for the breed but things are moving so swiftly in this industry they just might skip that step altogether PARTY pokerON
JohnT,
You can still handicap and win. HP
I played Texcess in the race, but used Flower Alley second most in some widely spread exactas. Personally, I thought it was fairly obvious that Flower Alley was highly likely to move forward. He had been working sensationally coming into the race and lightly races Pletcher horses have a history of improving as they move up the ranks. I came very close to betting 2 horses to win in this race and Flower Alley would have been the second horse.
Ch--
I boxed 3 horses (which I rarely do). Thought the race was tough, but eliminated enough of the entries to come down to FLOWER ALLEY, MAGNA GRADUATE, and the #9 (Jennifer Pedersen\'s horse). I think the California 3yo crop is overrated which is why I eliminated SPANISH CHESTNUT and TEXEXCESS.
No matter. I get split by the first horse who I happened to eliminate, trained by that thorn in my side Kenny McPeek ( by the way, did they find PRINCE ARCH yet?).
Good Luck,
Joe B.
I boxed Flower Alley, Texcess, and Mr. Sword. I actually briefly considered betting all 3 to win. Then I considered Texcess and Flower Alley to win. That\'s how much I disliked Spanish Chestnut and Andromeda\'s Hero at those prices.
I also haven\'t been especially high on the CA 3YOs (until Consolidator\'s recent race), but these weren\'t anywhere near the top horses. So I gave Texcess a huge shot. I thought he was better than Spanish Chestnut in the San Rafael and thought his other races were also better than they looked. There was plenty of speed to keep SC honest (and hirt themselves) and I thought Tex could get a good trip just off the pace. He was so horrible though, I don\'t think the result proved anything other than I am on a bad run. :-)
I don\'t know why anyone liked the Zito horse in there. I thought he was the worst horse in the race.
Post Edited (03-28-05 10:23)
Just a few thoughts...
I think you have to look for a horse who\'s building towards his good races as opposed to a horse that may have already showed you his best (like Texcess has shown you with those four 5-ish races in a row -- where he\'s been stuck for five months). This is the logic for using Zito\'s horse. He had upside.
I think all this \"California crop\" and \"plenty of speed\" stuff is a waste of time. Just to address this \"plenty of speed\" thing, for example -- aren\'t these horses really too young to have \"running styles\" to speak of? How can you really say with authority that there is \"plenty of speed?\" The trainers are still figuring things out. I\'ll go a step further and say you have NO IDEA who\'s going to go early, who\'s going to hold back and try to rate, etc., and using pace to handicap a race like this is a complete and total waste of time. By Derby time, you MAY be on slightly firmer ground. Maybe.
Also, when someone says \"the race was better than it looked,\" I rarely know what that means. If Jerry thinks the race was better than it looked he puts in the \"buried\" comment. Otherwise a 5 is a 5 is a 5.
I read so much stuff on this board that has NOTHING to do with TG handicapping. Every time I get bogged down in all this extraneous stuff (and I do, periodically) I lose. Look at the figures and play the race. Stop reading everything else and if you\'re doing badly stop buying the Racing Form for awhile and just use TG. Just a suggestion....
HP
I\'ll address your points separately.
1. It was my view that Texcess had indeed improved recently, but it was not reflected in his final time speed figures. It\'s obviously a moot point because he ran so horribly there is no evidence one way or the other if I was right. Had he run right back to his recent speed figures, it would have been some strong evidence I was wrong. Running as badly as he did demonstrates that something else was at work other than his recent speed figures or my opinion that he had been improving in a more hidden way.
2. The \"california horses\" thing is strictly a quality issue. Given 2 horses with similar figures and all else being equal, I\'d bet the horse earning his figures against better quality all day long. Qaulity is not measured strictly by the title of the race or the speed figures earned.
3. The plenty of speed issue is obviously related to whether or not you think competitive paces in fast fractions impact the results. For me, it\'s an absolute no brainer that they do. You many not agree, but that\'s why we all go to the windows. :-) The key issue is whether you can use that insight to profit by predicting pace scenarios better than the general public. \"I\" think the answer to that is that it\'s very difficult. So much so, it\'s probably overrated. However, \"YES\" at times. I always try to evaluate the probabilities of various pace scenarios. If I think it\'s likely a horse is going to get a good/bad pace trip it changes my perception of \"fair value\" by a bit one way or the other. It never puts me on or off horse though.
In this case, I couldn\'t see any way this was going to be anything less than an honest pace. There were plenty of speed/pressers. The blinkers being removed from Texcess was an indication to me that they might try to rate off SC - which I thought would be the right move. Dueling would certainly be idiotic. Texcess had also shown some rateabilty. Feeling comfortable that you can get a good trip is certainly a plus when deciding when and if to pull the trigger. Had he not shown that ability, I would have been much less likely to bet him at the same price I got. I would have needed more.
4. When I say a horse is better than he looks, that generally means I think his form is better that the \"general public\" would think based on a casual glance of his PPs. So I expect his odds to be longer than they would be if everyone knew what I knew.
Some of that kind of thing is captured by TG because of wide trips (buried) and other notes. Sometimes (rarely) my opinion is related to a bias I believe worked for/against the horse and subsequent evidence from that day. Most often it\'s a pace/visual thing where I think a horse was either negatively or positively impacted by the pace of his recent races or had more in reserve than he showed.
I always have a mental list of horses that I think are better or worse than they look for \"whatever\" reason and I try to focus on them when looking for bets because I think they are a prime source for overlays.
Post Edited (03-28-05 13:07)
HP:
Thanks for the suggestion. Even though I had a profitable week (2 racing days) at AQ last week (no TGs), I am going to order a set for Wednesday\'s AQ card online as soon as I make 2 statements:
1) HP, great job in the Lane\'s End
2) As much profit potential as there is in various methodologies, including TGs, I think its mostly the \"extraneous stuff\" that has most of us hooked on this game.
Richiebee,
You are absolutely right on point 2, and I have a story that might better illustrate the point I\'m trying to make.
Years ago I did a few seminars for TG with another guy and his wife. The gentleman in question and I were both horse racing fans and brought a lot of \"extraneous\" stuff to bear on our handicapping, but in my observation (and I watched him play), he was more likely to let the \"extraneous\" stuff talk him out of good TG plays than I was. All this trainer and jockey stuff and he would boot quite a few good straight TG plays. Not that he wasn\'t a good handicapper, but he brought in the extra stuff and I don\'t think it helped.
His wife on the other hand knew nothing about horse racing before using TG, used TG EXCLUSIVELY, and got some incredible results. I saw her hit two triples at Penn National the night before we did the seminar in Atlantic City for the Thunder Gulch Derby.
In my experience, this is not a unique phenomenon. The LESS people know about other forms of handicapping, the BETTER they do with TG. TG users who are \"old horse racing fans\" are generally locked in some \"battle of faith\" with other forms of handicapping they have used before. You see it on this board all the time.
My wife knows nothing about horse racing and on big days, as I have detailed on this board, she regularly embarasses me, the resident expert, by flipping through the sheets in ten seconds and landing on say...War Emblem. No pace, no class, no nothing.
The IDEAL user of this data would know NOTHING about horse racing and TG would be the FIRST handicapping product they ever saw. The rest of us are fighting the \"battle of faith\" with our old crap.
HP
Chin up....We had a great weekend of racing and most of us had a serious chanch to hit the big one!!!!!! Remember me, I picked the slowest horse in North America, before the race, and was roundly scoffed at. Wild Desert, in almost everyones opinion was tooo slooow. OOOOOps!!! If Mayan King runs any kind of race, I would win enough to buy a couple of small states. Some days you get the bear and some days the bear gets you.
HP:
We\'ve all been where the husband was: \"paralysis due to overanalysis\" of the numerous sources of available information. Those husband/ wife at the races stories never work out well for the husband, do they?
Thank god my wife has no interest...
The \"extraneous stuff\" is a bit of a vast wasteland. I prefer to be more swayed by the \"subjective stuff\".. opinions and beliefs I have formed over the years.
Last Wednesday at AQ, I bet a winner based on the following subjective belief: The animal had been claimed by a trainer who IMO was both competent and underrated, taken from a trainer who IMO is one of the worst on the circuit. I would have bet this animal solely on the trainer change even if you told me the TGs or Beyers afforded him only a slight chance to win.
The nice thing about all this is that neither trainers\' winning percentage was exemplary, and that anyone in the grandstand that day could have said there was no real difference between the two-- that they were both mediocre trainers at best. But in MY mind, based on MY observation over the years-the two trainers were worlds apart in terms of talent.
I would say that my subjective beliefs, as gratifying and profitable as they sometimes are, lead me astray at least 80% of the time. Anyone know a shylock with a bad heart?
Post Edited (03-28-05 14:06)
Class,
I can\'t really disagree with your general point, which is that pace has SOME impact on the race, but I\'m not getting anything specific on this horse or what you saw that made you believe in him. What was \"better than they looked\" about his races? They look like 5\'s to me.
I\'m willing to look at pace stuff (I looked at pacefigures.com quite a few times) so I really would like to know what you\'re talking about.
HP
Richie-- \"Amsterdam\" was good, especially for those who watch \"The Wire\" on HBO. Same idea was used there by a cop who established a free zone for drug dealers to keep crime down in other areas. But I\'m definitely against doing that in our game-- it would make this even more of a guessing game than it is now.
HP
Mark me down with Class Handicapper & Richiebee. This is not simply a numbers game and it never will be. It is much more an art than a science.
Bally,
Consider yourself marked down. Whenever you\'re ready to spell out whatever you consider to be the \"art\", I\'m ready to read all about it. Otherwise I\'ll just mark you down... HP
It\'s also worth noting that HP isn\'t simply talking about betting the fastest horse(s)-- his 3 horse box in the Lane\'s End included horses who were NOT fast, relatively.
Perhaps you had WILD DESERT simply picking up the pieces during a slow final eight.
I still would not use him if they ran the race today. Congratulations to anyone who caught the 5-3 number. As for me, I\'m still looking to choke Norberto \"Poolstick\" Arroyo.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
HP
okay, let\'s use the race at hand as an example (even though it works against me).
I had Wild Desert & Mr. Sword. I did not have Flower Alley. My third horse was Mayan King. The irony there is that one of the cornerstones of my betting is recent, frequent & fast workouts. Preferably over today\'s track & more than 3 furlongs. Despite his good works I let Flower Alley go.
Mayan King was my third choice despite recognizing that G. Contessa was getting into unfamiliar waters here. Why? Well, they both only had two starts and I preferred a horse sired by Stephen Got Even to Distorted Humor at 1 1/8 miles. I overlooked the off track and the obvious discrepancy between Pletcher & Contessa, particularly in a race of this type.
Why? Well, a friend of mine used to say you always have to leave yourself a way to lose. I think of that every time I do something stupid.
My best pick of the day was Daddy Joe in the previous race. It would have given me the pick 3($1750 or so). But I got nothing for it because some implausible (to me) bomb came and got him. Check the chart of that race and see how far back it was to the 3rd horse.
I came out slightly ahead for the day but I could have had a much better day. Lay all the horseplayers end to end who could make that statement on any given day and you\'d have a very long line.
This post has gotten too long but, in a nutshell, the game is in interpreting the info - and that\'s an art.
Joe B:
Good luck at the Gulf this weekend. I expect a full report on Bandini\'s manners when you return.
If you think YOU are mad at Norberto, think about his agent. On the day of the Gotham, he got DQd in the first race, got a tummy ache, and took off his remaining mounts. One of these mounts was Dixie Talking, the upset winner of the 109k Cicada.
HP,
My thoughts on Tex are in the first post of the \"Lane End\" thread. It was all pace related in this case.
Post Edited (03-28-05 19:13)
HP and TGJB,
For the record, I think HP did a great job on the race and I agree that you should be looking for improving horses etc...
As everyone knows, I supplement the figures with subjective views on performace that sometimes cause me to come to different conclusions about where a horse has actually been and therefore where he is going next.
classhandicapper wrote:
> HP and TGJB,
>
> For the record, I think HP did a great job on the race and I
> agree that you should be looking for improving horses etc...
>
> As everyone knows, I supplement the figures with subjective
> views on performace that sometimes cause me to come to
> different conclusions about where a horse has actually been and
> therefore where he is going next.
As everyone knows, you said you would leave this board. I am so sick of your ridiculous ravings without ever taking a solid position.
You\'re just like Bill Walton analyzing a basketball game. First of all he never shuts up for a mooment. Second of all he\'ll go on and on and on about how bad a particular player is doing during a game and how he\'s a weak spot to his team, but when that player does one good thing he\'ll chime in with \"That\'s how important so and so is to his team. I told you he\'s the key to their winning.\"
Go away CH! Go away! Take Bill Walton with you.
Real Class,
I\'ll leave if Jerry asks me or when I feel like it.
>As everyone knows, you said you would leave this board. I am so sick of your ridiculous ravings without ever taking a solid position.<
What position do you want?
I bet Texcess to win and boxed him in exactas with the winner and 3rd place horse. I said that earlier in the day. Prior to the race I said it was a \"must bet\" race because the 2 chalks were very weak.
Class,
I re-read your original post. It\'s interesting. I didn\'t see the races so I\'ll have to trust your observations....but I will say that I think your observations are totally reflected on the horse\'s TG sheet.
The races that you describe sound like efforts. On the sheet it looks like the horse had gotten to a certain point and consistently delivered the goods. Four fives in a row for a 2-3yo is pretty impressive to me. However, they look (based on your observations as well!) like EFFORTS, where the horse is running pretty hard.
After four in a row I ask myself - will he get better today?
Your position seems to be - he\'s demonstrated that he\'s better than these in his last few races.
My position is - he\'s run hard four straight (and you may be right that he\'s better than he looks! -- on his best day) so as a result of these efforts, TODAY he\'s more likely to poop out than move forward.
Running strong in those four straight is a NEGATIVE for me in the Lane\'s End (based on wear and tear on a young horse). I agree with what you say about how good those races were -- but how do you factor in the wear and tear of Texcess running hard enough to demonstrate his pace superiority in those four straight races?
HP
HP,
IMO the full value of the Delta race wasn\'t reflected in the TG speed figure (assuming you make pace figure adjustments).
If pacefigures was still available, I could show you that. That\'s the race that Closing Argument came out of to run a much improved figure. Tex\'s trip was even tougher there. It was a huge pace figure. In Beyer terms, I\'m sure pacefigures would have given Tex a performance figure of over 100.
TG captured the ground loss of the San Rafael on the first turn (not built into the Beyer), but IMO, when a horse is working hard wide on the first turn to stay with the early leaders in an honest/fast pace, it almost always takes more out of them than the just the ground loss.
I didn\'t see a pace figre for the BM race and it wasn\'t easy to estimate one, but visually it looked like he was used hard putting away the other dueler and held OK.
So I think he ran 3 races that were superior to what they looked based on rawer speed figures. I also liked the workout coming into the race.
I can\'t argue with you if you believe that running 3-4 tough races in a row is a negative. I didn\'t think it was as likely for Tex to move forward as some of the other more lightly raced horses, but I didn\'t see a debacle either.
Other than our personal views, I don\'t think the race proved a darn thing. He was so dreadful I don\'t think the race proved anything about my analysis of his prior performances. Perhaps we will learn more about his ability later on a fast track if he\'s not done.
Post Edited (03-29-05 09:41)
As long as we are asking people to \"go away\", how about we stop with the constant redboarding about White Mercedes. CH picks horses and has opinions on the races, based on his theories. His theories are different than many on this board and at times it appears inconsistent (but it is hard to debate via these types of threads and always be clear).
But this constant White Mercedes stuff is just crap. A few weeks I CtC posts several comments before the LA Derby about his thoughts and NEVER says a word about Vicarage and is NEGATIVE about High Limit. Then the race happens and afterwards he says the \"results were not unforeseeable and he cashed on the exacta but wasn\'t happy about it because of drugs\". Chuckles, when others commented negatively about your claims in picking all those derby winners in the past 15 years, I believed you and took you at your word (not that it matters). But after watching your Kerry like \"flip flop\" on this race, I can see why others doubt your claims on the Derby.
Then this week we get John T Chance posting AFTER the race, how easy the 10-1 shot was to have and the $591 double. Bull$#@%. Post before the race and then claim victory. Redboard your claims afterwards is stupid and pointless. Are you really worried that your opinion carries so much weight on this board that posting before the race will deflate the odds you will get?
Talking about the drug problem is one thing, but these kinds of redboarding, tied to drug talk is just pointless.
John T Chance/DRex?
JTC wrote:
\"For weeks now, after the fact, I\'ve tried to contribute the idea that the big boys [backed by White Mercedes] win the big races. I apologise for trying to hammer that idea home weekend after weekend - as if I have a clue.\"
Just a note to say how much I\'ve enjoyed your posts about the now infamous White Mercedes over the past few months. I like the \"tongue-in-cheek\" humor you attach to it,too, and appreciated the story ctc added about the dark evening- maybe worth a reprint...?
No apology warranted here... Keep \'em comin\'! raz
Razzle: Thanks for the preceding post. You\'re on my good list... and that\'s a good list to be on.
Jimbo66: My opinion carries no weight. I suggest you ignore me and any knuckleheads you don\'t approve of. My initial post about White Mercedes was done in an innocent, playful way. Keeping score wasn\'t the point. It wasn\'t meant so much as a \"redboard,\" as it was a blind tout FOR FORTHCOMING RACES! The same [to quote jimbo66] \"Bull$#@%\" happens week after week! If you ignore them, or are too blind or stupid to see it, be prepared to cry like a child again when the point is made to your displeasure in the future.
JohnTChance
JohnT,
I think the point is, you don\'t need to know who the vet is to come up with these horses as a bettor. I\'m mean, its not like Roses in May didn\'t have other merits, or either of this weeks other winners you mention for that matter.
Do they drug test in the desert? I would think its tougher than here, but I could be wrong.