I\'m especially interested in seeing how High Limit runs. He\'s got 2 huge wins and is trained by Frankel, but he obviously didn\'t beat much last year. His win at a route looks very much like he got loose in an extremely soft pace. I\'m not sure that proves conclusively that he\'ll be as good going long as short - especially off the layoff like this. Nice works though.
Big work for Kansas City Boy coming into this. He looks like he\'s improving. Too bad he has the outside post. It won\'t help.
The horse (K.C.) was scratched last week because the trainer wanted an outside post. I read this here as a post by one of our loyal writers before he was scratched!!!!!!
Thx for the \'ack\' Spa! McPeek got EXACTLY what he wanted, and he runs for twice the purse too.. He\'s pulling a \'Sarava\' with this colt..
Here\'s the LA Derby look-see..
Saturday\'s sophomore stakes schedule takes us to New Orleans and San Francisco for the Louisiana and El Camino Real Derbies: two events that have histories of identifying classy winners on the Derby Trail and beyond.
2003\'s edition of the Gr. II Fair Grounds meet highlight produced Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide, 3rd that day (subsequetly awarded 2nd), and was won by Peace Rules who went on to his gutsy show placement at Churchill.
In 1996, eventual Derby winner Grindstone left the Big Easy a winner, having topped local hero Zarb\'s Magic on his way to the roses for D. Wayne Lukas. Another Louisiana legend that copped Derby laurels here and at Louisville was the mercurial Risen Star (1988).
THE LOUISIANA DERBY, Gr. II, $600,000, 8.5f, All carry 122
1.) SORT IT OUT (Baffert/Albarado) 6-1: Stonerside acquisition makes first start under Baffert after surprising Grocer, Scrappy and New Yorker in the Whirlaway. May need this after being kept him off the worktab for weeks following the move from Big Apple. NY-bred is 4 for 5 at the trip, draws rail and Ridin\' Robby for late run, but speed-favoring oval has us leaning against today. Recall Baffert got first LA Derby win last year with Wimbledon after a number of frustrating visits.
2.) STORM SURGE (Stewart/Bailey) 6-1: Overbrook stalker-presser continues to be winless past 8f after admirable Risen Star try fell short. Formful Storm Cat colt has maintained level for Dallas during 9 race career, but doesn\'t appear to be developing further. Waters get deeper for sophs from here on out, and while addition of Bailey can\'t hurt, we think several here are moving by him at this point in the season.
3.) HIGH LIMIT (Frankel/Dominguez) 5-2: X-factor colt appears from Frankel barn after scoring easily in both career starts at DEL while under the care of Tony Dutrow. Buzz from Palm Meadows on this one is deafening, and fact he is ML favorite means noise was heard all the way to New Orleans! Adds significant 7# today, but with Proud Accolade sick, may be lone speed at circuit where that works wonders (think Peace Rules). Frankel angles all positive into this, and Maria\'s Mon colt figures prominently under Dominguez if you care to swallow the low tab.
4.) REAL DANDY (Asmussen/Meche) 8-1: Yankee Victor bay started career as Asmussen barn after-thought, but has moved past stablemates to earn trainer\'s respect, appreciation. Turned string of near-misses under lesser guidance into win-place efforts under capable Donnie, including fireworks exacta finish under Scipion in last month\'s Risen Star. Steady developer was targeted for this spot originally by 26% (meet) conditioner, and is one of several off-pace runners to choose from in event that may not offer appropriate set-up.
5.) INDY STORM (Zito/Melancon) 20-1: Another week, another stake, another Zito prospect... Farmer dropped $750,000 at KEE Sept. \'03 sale for this A.P. Indy colt who won first out in the Calder slop at 8f New Year\'s Eve. Late runner failed to factor in pair of GP ALW\'s since, but Nick said this week he expects a \"different horse\" Saturday. Barn is on fire, strip reg Melancon climbs on, and pony is sole ML \"big price\" at 20-1. Makes sense for exotic tickets hopping to land a tote buster.
6.) WALLSTREET SCANDAL (Violette/Bejarano) 10-1: Read the Footnotes connections make another try on the main with recently successful GP turf ALW winner. Cross-out Champagne flop from BEL rail, and realize Mt. Livermore chestnut is 4/2-2-0 with pair of stakes placements. Fired Boynton Beach bullet on Monday earning plane fare to New Orleans, and Violette lures Bejarano to 10-1 play as added benefit. May run more forwardly with horsy Houdini aloft, and is a viable option to those seeking value throughout the money slots.
7.) SCIPION (Biancone/Stevens) 4-1: Biancone\'s Slow-developing A.P. Indy son may have benefited from Risen Star collapse when scoring here under Stevens last month. Gets acid test here with some added competition and pace scenario that may not be as inviting. Will have to come home faster than :32.4 today, and we\'re doubting that.
8.) VICARAGE (Pletcher/Velasquez) 10-1: \"Other\" Pletcher entrant became solo artist with Accolade defection, and MSW/ALW winner acquires services of Johnny V. thanks to it. Nice Vicar colt from Dogwood has failed to menace in pair of graded stakes tries, but \"karma moves\" here 3rd of the break for first two turn try. For Pletcher-Velasquez fans.
9.) KANSAS CITY BOY (McPeek/Blanc) 5-1: One of our favorite Class of \'05 colts got wide berth manager wanted when abandoning last week\'s Fountain of Youth for this. Holy Bull runner up and Lecomte show pony (shy a neck and head) removes the blinkers to try new stalking-pressing tactic under Blanc. Education timing looks right as McPeek charge is sitting pretty in Derby earnings race and may be just arriving at start of peak cycle. Doesn\'t have to win today, but expect another move forward by our top Derby outsider.
SELECTIONS:
1. Kansas City Boy
2. Wallstreet Scandal
3. High Limit
4. Real Dandy
5. Storm Surge
I remember that \"outside post\" post. If the horse doesn\'t like running on the inside, I guess it would make some sense to not want the 1/2 post. But I can\'t believe it\'s desireable to have the 9 post when there\'s a short run to the first turn. Not saying he can\'t overcome it, but I\'d rather be more inside.
class..
I think McPeek is trying to utilize every possible \"experience\" that KC Boy may have to deal with at Churchill. He said that he\'s noticed how much more relaxed Boy is when outside of horses and I suppose he must want to see how capable he is of losing some ground while relaxing off the lead against class competition.
Check out the Oct/Nov KEE/CD starts when he drew the 8 and 9 holes in the 2 MSW\'s.. He responded with 2 really nice efforts. Even in his third career start when launched from the 3 hole, he got up 2nd under Edgar with a \"good finish outside\".
Jerry alerted us to this colt\'s classic aspirations in the Lecomte write-up, and I\'ve been a fan since. I also think it\'s interesting that the owners chose to sell their Wild Desert with KC Boy being \"Not For Sale\" at any price. The horse is named for one of the partners\' father, and McPeek seems to be really keen on making this run with Boy special for them.
I also like the fact that success for this colt could be a nice plus to Calumet, who bred him.
Beware guys. Remember, it\'s McPeek. He\'s probably had the horse long enough to screw him up.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Yeah, just like he did Tejano Run (2nd in the Derby, 124 beyer in a Hialeah stakes as a 4YO [love to know what his TG # was in that race]) oh yeah, and Florida Derby winner and KY Derby favorite Harlan\'s Holiday. Hmmm . . .wonder why the owner pulled all his horses from McPeek after the Preakness and sent them to Todd Pletcher? Todd\'s not a \"jump up trainer\" is he? Oh yeah, and Repent and Take Charge Lady. Didn\'t Jerry Bach take all his horses away from McPeek after \'Lady was retired? Did they go to Ronnie Werner? Is Ronnie a jump up trainer? Oh, and that was also the year he won the Belmont with Sarava. Soon after the horse went to Bob Baffert, who did a real \"bang up job\" with him. But wait, isn\'t Bob considered a \"jump up\" trainer too? I wonder if his \"caught lightning in a bottle\" owners decided he just wasn\'t \"doing everything he could\" to win the race, and decided to get someone who would. Oh, and that\'s right, this is during that period when his wife found out she had cancer or something when she was pregnant with their first child. I\'m sure that wasn\'t effecting him.
What about that GI winner \"She\'s a Devil Due\" that he bought for $37,000? Wasn\'t her owner one of his high school buddies who actually took a second mortgage out on his house to buy his first race horse? At least he bought a filly so she\'d have some residual value in case things didn\'t work out.
Yeah, he did a terrible job with last year\'s Grade I Gulfstream Park Handicap winner Hard Buck. But wait, wasn\'t that Prince Arch horse who just won the same race this year trained by McPeek too? Prince Arch, hmm . . . hey, wasn\'t he the only horse to beat Kitten\'s Joy last year?
Take a look at the TG sheets for any of his top horses. What will you see? Smooth development; time off when needed; small, incremental improvement; classic forging horse lines with his 2-3 year olds, just like they used to be in \"the good old days\" before top caliber stakes horse trainers started becoming \"jump-up trainers\". What won\'t you see? Magic \"jump-ups.\"
Kenny McPeek is one of the good guys. He does things the right way, within the rules. Will he take advantage of any legal method to maximize performance? Sure. He and his owners have one primary goal: win the KY derby. Does the Derby trail burn some horses up? I think just about anyone who knows anything about horses will say that it does. But here\'s the bottom line: McPeek knows what it takes to win the spring 3yo races. Oh, and by the way, he\'s developed into quite a turf trainer to keep everyone\'s interest during the rest of the year.
So anyway Joe, go with Pletcher and Frankel\'s horses. I\'m sure they\'ll give you what you\'re looking for.
Oh, and did I mention I got 150-1 on KC Boy and 175-1 on Wild Desert, and 75-1 on Diamond Isle over Christmas at Bally\'s Derby Future Book?
The outside here may not be quite as much of an impediment as first appears. K.C. Boy in all likelihood isn\'t gonna change his running style, especially off that last workout, so blinkers or no blinkers if he\'s not engaged early I\'ll be very surprised.
Personally I think the scratch/ship was a significant mistake. He obviously likes the Fair Grounds, but I\'m not entirely sure he wasn\'t relishing Hallandale. He\'d already beaten the horse that won the FOY and the end of the line comes awful quick for these guys this time of year. I\'d have sought the Grade II black type there. The reason he\'s been competitive to my eye is that he\'s saved ground his last three races. Add the weight, wide and diminished distance and long stretch (which means tight turns by the way) and this is a horse I\'d be very leary of at short odds and I think thats what you\'re gonna get.
In his favor is that the pace may not be as tough. Theres no Electric Light, Silent Bid or Bold Lion. But, you can\'t doubt that the Frankel and Pletcher horses are going to show speed. A lot depends on Frankels horse, but I\'m not projecting a major move up off Dutrow.
As far as Scipion\'s figure goes, it certainly is much better than what Beyer gives him credit for and he did close very well late. Can he run the same type of race Saturday and win? He\'ll have to be better, but he\'s already beaten some of the better competition here or beaten those that have beaten them.
Storm Surge gets to run at equal weights for a change. Anyone else think K.C.Boy is gonna have his hands full with this one?
Lastly you can\'t help notice Bafferts horse. Its a question of the quality of that last race and his fitness. Its his fitness I\'m a bit leary of. If I reached a conclusion he was fit, I\'d say Albarado landed in a very soft spot.
I think the key to the race is obviously High Limit. We are dealing with a horse that was well touted before he started and won like he could be anything. The question of course is that he looked good beating \"nobody\". Plus, the route win looks like it was on a loose lead in a very slow pace. That hardly demonstrates conclusively that he can run as effectively going long under pressure against horses of some quality. Throw in the fact that he\'s coming in off almost a 5 month layoff and there\'s little doubt he\'s \"vulnerable\" if he goes off at short odds.
However, there are also question marks about everyone else.
I don\'t think the Risen Star was nearly as good a race as the Holy Bull. If you back one of those horses, I think you better be projecting some improvement because IMHO, they aren\'t all that good.
Backing a speed/presser from the 9 post when there\'s short run to the first turn, speed inside of him, and when he has hardly looked like a world beater in the last 1/8 of his routes is hardly attractive to me either. If KCB, had the 3-4 post and I thought it was certain he could get his presser position without undue effort, I\'d probably back him at 3-1/7-2 against High Limit. I don\'t see that as certain from the 9 post tomorrow even though I love that workout coming in. I think it\'s very positive when an improving 3yo shows an improved work out. I\'m just worried about the trip. I don\'t like taking relatively short odds on horses that could get a somewhat rough trip.
Sort it Out also beat a weaker field, but he\'s got the rail, has been improving, and goes to Baffert. Is he ready for a top effort?
Wall St. Scandal looked sensational in his turf win, but I always have a bit of trouble backing a horse off his turf form unless I\'m convinced he\'s just as good on both surfaces.
For me, it all comes down to price.
If they make High Limit a solid/big favorite, I\'m going to try to beat him somehow, but I think all the best options are a bit flawed.
If High Limit is a tepid favorite or not even the favorite, the race is probably a pass.
I can\'t let a horse like High Limit impact my wagering. I have more speed figs to look at yet, but what I see doesnt scare me. I find it interesting that 2nd start Golden Rainbow was still the best competition he could find.
He wasn\'t killer fast, he\'s coming off a large layoff. He did it all against Delaware Park horses. (They can be o.k.) Obviously if it was Saratoga you\'d take greater note. This time there are a couple with speed/class he hasnt seen that before. (I think i said something similar about DeClan\'s but he had to run so hard hes done.) He\'s coming off the move upiest of all move up trainers. If Frankel beats me with him I\'ll just say \"You sonabiatch\"
I guess eveyone has the Peace Rules syndrome.
CTC,
It\'s always all about price. If they don\'t make him a heavy favorite, then there\'s not much value in having the opinion that he\'s vulnerable. He certainly has a chance. He ran some decent figures for a 2YO at that time of year while under wraps.
There\'s a big track take to overcome.
You can\'t overcome it unless the public is doing something very wrong. No one forces you to go to the windows. :-)
Post Edited (03-11-05 16:12)
Dodie---
So the guy has had some terrific stock. Does that make him a good trainer? HH and SARAVA were already gutted once they left McPeek. By the way, what happened to REPENT after the Travers...I forget.
Sure he\'s a good guy and clean. That\'s why you should keep betting his horses.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
KC Boy sure getting a lot of ink for a NW2LT animal. With his human connections (Blanc/ McPeek) and Affirmed as his broodmare sire, I see greenery in his future.
In my opinion, Sort It Out and Wallstreet Scandal are running at their owners\' behest against the wishes of their trainers.
High Limit-- short price, big lead on the backside. When Frankel coyly says he didn\'t realize this colt was a front runner, you cant believe him. As I recall, Peace Rules had much more bottom than this. Will Dominguez try to wrestle with this one early, or let him run free?
Storm Surge is a G3 winner at the Fairgrounds. I wonder if Bailey can be patient enough to let Hi Limit open a big advantage on the backside, or whether he will feel compelled to chase. He really needs
Vicarage or KC Boy to attend High Limit early. A good bet at 4/1 or above, but no shot of that with Bailey.
Scipion: It doesn\'t get any better than Biancone/ Stevens. My greatest concern is his last work (1m 1:41). Two possibilities are that Biancone is uncertain of colt\'s foundation (hard to believe with breeding) and that PB has no interest in trying to get this colt interested early. Right now he is a one dimensional animal totally reliant on fast contested pace in front of him.
Strategy: In tomorrows FG all stakes Pick4, try to beat 3 favorites: Badge of Silver, High Limit and the Pletcher South African turfer.
I agree that Badge of Silver is another vulnerable favorite. I\'m a big fan of his, but I don\'t think 9F is really what he wants. Plus he\'s out more than 2 months. There\'s always a chance he\'s less than 100%. I think he will have to be 100% to win. I see a few horses in there I think could be sitting on a lifetime top.
Dodie:
2004: Pletcher 948/ 240 25%
Frankel 491/ 135 27%
McPeek 413/ 74 18%
The entities that spend wild money for thoroughbreds are always going to try to get these animals trained by the 25- 27% guys. If they want a warm and fuzzy human interest story, they can watch the local news.
I agree that KM has done very well with grass horses, especially some of the ones he has bought himself in Brazil, but I don\'t think we want to be anointing him as a 3YO spring classic \"guru\" yet. To me that is a very short list: Baffert, Lukas and Zito. And if Lukas can\'t produce some magic this year, he is in danger of becoming a guru emeritus.
Good luck with those Vegas bets.
There is no way High Limit goes off as a tepid favorite. He\'ll be odd\'s on in my opinion. As for High Limit not beating anyone so far, keep in mind neither did Smarty Jones early on, but I am in agreement that you have to bet against that one in this race.
I\'m reluctant to give Storm Surge a second chance at 8.5F but the Jock switch has to help with a more patient ride. Inside also helps. KCB should be fit witout much early speed to get around early. Sort it Out sits in an excellent spot. Fitness is the issue. Wall Street Scandal is intruiging. Storm Surge,Wallstreet, Sort It Out is the Value Play exacta Box for me this week. Throw in KCB for the tri box. Not betting big, just hoping for value.
Bet a little win a lot....concept.
I don\'t really care too much for this race, I will play alittle something though.
SORT IT OUT--Does have the nice moving line this year, has moved alot from his 2yr old races. The moves are getting smaller and I think this is the end of the moving forward for him tom. A small back up to a 4.1 to a 5.1 is coming.
REAL DANDY--I think I will get better odds than 8-1 on him and he will be my play for the race, not a all time great play, but for the odds it\'s cool. Has only moved 3pts from his 2yr top, and did pair up those last two numbers and a small move might be in him for this one.
INDY STORM--Too slow at best might jump to a 5.2, giving A.P.INDY\'s move 3 1/2 pts from 2 to 3.
SCIPION--Rough reading him, Feels like he will bounce tom., but by how much?? I look for a 5.3 to a 7.3 level back up and at 4-1 not very good for a horse that looks ready to back up.
VICARAGE--The 2 he ran looks to have him kncoked out for awhile and at best might move forward off that last and puts him on the bottom of the tri\'s ( at best )
KC BOY--Damn fine looking 2yr old pattern, but what the %$#@ happen this year so far?? I give this horse a back up move off that 4.2 in his last and thats not good.
WALLSTREET SCANDAL--Who knows what he wil do tom.
HIGH LIMIT--He will not be left off on my tickets for the ex\'s with REAL D. Alot of question for him, hes fast,hes been off for 4 1/2 months, it\'s Bobby F...
STORM SURGE--Is going the wrong way, after that 2 three back, the bounce was only 1pt, so I will give him a pair up 4.2
Wow,
He\'s much faster on TFigs than anything else.
Interesting.
I don\'t know, if I was a devout TFig user, I think I\'d have to look real hard at High Limit. Those TFig may have me off the race...lol
Horses that win by huge margins almost always have much higher TG figures than Beyers. I have a theory about that, but I haven\'t studied it closely enough to be sure.
When one horse is totally dominant over his competition, he often beats them into submission and goes on to win by a much larger margin than the difference between them indicates he should have based on their figures coming in.
Dominant horses can run faster than weak horses early without that faster pace having a negative impact. Inferior horses are straining severely just to keep up with a very superior horse and run slower final figures as a result.
When the margin is then huge, a figure maker that is not particularly sensitive to pace will turn around and assume the race is much faster than it is because he can\'t reconcile the huge winning margin with the slow final times run by the rest of the field.
The reality is that the superior horse is usually just running his normal figure and everyone else is running a slower final figure. The slower guys are running at the same level as usual, it\'s just buried in the fast pace.
IMHO, if you are not sensitive to this type of pace match up and the implications for the speed figures of the inferior horses, you will often wildly overrate the winning horse\'s figure.
This is a $600,000 allowance race. If Sort It Out runs back to his last, he\'ll win.
High Limit 2yo races are very impressive. Can he win at 2 turns off the layoff?
The rest appear inferior to these two.
simple, isn\'t it?
Tri box - Scipion, Sort It Out, High Limit.
And lay off McPeek - being a good guy AND a good trainer is a small group.
Lots of interesting chat on this race. I personally like KC on my ticket and would leave Scipion off. KC might be the key.
The Key to the Race imo is will anyone put pressure on High Limit or will that one get an easy unpressured lead, if so horses like Storm Surge will have to move earlier losing any chance they might have. KCB need to press the top one and if that happens...Scipion,WS, Sort it out will have something to run at, while the pressers will wait till top of the strech to make move.
I\'m hoping that HL is a little short, but with Frankel they are ready to run early.
Tough tough race..hoping for a couple of what if\'s. Better to bet small exotics on this one and hope for a big score (SS,SIO,WS&KCB) in tris and exacta\'s will include HL for start of pic 4---1236/6710/2/468
CH,
I think you are way off with your comment about horses who win big getting extra high T-Graph figures as opposed to Beyer figures. From what I have seen the exact opposite is true. Beyer gives bigger figures to horses who have runaway frontrunning scores, as opposed to T-Graph figures.
Many times I have bet against horses who had runaway wins in their previous race, getting a much bigger Beyer figure than T-Graph figure, and to be honest, it has been a pretty successful betting strategy.
I would like to hear JB\'s comment on your assessment.
Tony,
I seriously doubt High Limit goes off at \"odds on\".
On \"matchup\" odds, High limit is -140 to finish ahead of Scipion. Matchups are not always a strong barometer of parimutuel wagering, but they often are. If was to be odds on in a big field, he would be a much bigger favorite than -140 over Scipion.
I would \"guesstimate\" somewhere between 3-2 and 2-1, still not a good price, but not odds on.
Good luck,
Jim
Jimbo,
I could agree with 3-2 area. I\'m thinking the BUZZ on this horse is pretty loud and the national money will be sent in. However, I do accept your assessment especially after looking at the DRF pole results online.
Still tough to bet at 3-2 8/5. Now if this one floats to 3-1 or better.....than I might certainly change my bet to some extent.
This should be a fun race to watch and bet.
Tony
JB is sitting by a pool making figures down in Puerto Rico getting ready to meet Connie Merjos at El Commandante. He\'ll be back next week. He also says I told you so about Declan\'s Moon and Ellis.
But I have a question for Ch--what about the closers who are aren\'t necessarily affected by the pace?
jim,
re the matchup odds - very interesting considering the DRF poll, which is often a good indicator of final odds, has scipion at 3-1 and HL at 6-1. looks like the \"smart\" money is leaning towards HL. i don\'t like the race. i don\'t consider HL a real strong derby candidate, but this track seems to favor his running style, and there is not a ton of pace in the race. i will probably box HL, SIO, and KCB (without a lot of confidence).
alan,
told you so about declan? everybody on this board has been negative on the horse. the only guy in his corner (me) has been with others in the futures pool. just tell jerry to bet against declan next time he runs, so i can once again double my money in under two minutes..........
nice ROTW, i am basically going with it. good luck.
Post Edited (03-12-05 12:51)
I know Jerry wasn\'t high on DeClans, but I don\'t recall him hinting at physical issues. The horse on TGraph ran something like 7,4,4,4,_...i dont know what the last race was. I can\'t see a pattern hinting at physical issues there. He didn\'t lay off, other than the 2 prep format they chose and to bypass the B.C. Was that the hint?
Last night, I read the most ridiculous statement from Frankel and its still got me scratching my head. Frankel got High Limit in November and was pointing him to the Hollywood Futurity but he was off for some reason. But what Frankel just said is that he just looked at High Limits past performances a couple days ago and didn\'t realize he goes to the front. Does anyone believe that? If its true hasn\'t he been awfully disengaged with this horse? This same story said they dont know what they have. Well, either thats true or they are really tellin a whopper for some reason. Why tell a whopper? To play coy about stealing off quickly? I\'m intrigued with what trainers say and why the heck they say it and its got nothing to do with the truth of what is said. This time, I have no freakin idea what these guys may or may not be doing.
Bobby thinks he\'s being clever when he makes pre-race comments like this. He\'s a butt head who\'ll get his one day. I make it High Limit/K.C.Boy
JB will explain about Declan\'s Moon when he gets back.
I\'d bet Frankel knows exactly what he has in High Limit. Whether he can do at 3 what he did at 2 remains to be seen, but I\'m on record as thinking he can--we\'ll see.
Jimbo66--I think Storm Surge and Wallstreet Scandal are the intriguing horses in terms of potential jump ups and Sort It Out is solid with a good chance to pair his last.
high limit runs a negative.
Yeah, I tend to agree with you Allan...I think he intends to put everyones guard down and try and wire this one. This is a go go horse. I think hes gonna get the lead and its gonna a question of how hard K.C. Boy wants to go after it. I think Bailey will get a bit more out of Storm Surge but he\'ll make his move later if hes able to.
The closers success will obviously depend upon the pace and how the track is playing. Scipion doesnt have to win here for his effort to be progressive and I\'m not projecting a bounce. If Frankels horse runs a 2 or 3 with the ground saving issue, he figures to be very tough. I\'ll be surprised if hes more than about 3-2.
jimbo,
I haven\'t studied it TG/Beyer relationship carefully, but I am 100% certain about the phenomenon I am describing and have seen a couple of instance where I disagreed with the TG figure. I have no opinion on High Limit\'s figures because I am not familiar with the horses he beat.
My opinion on High Limit is this:
1. He beat nothing so far.
2. He got a route with a loose lead in a slow pace against nothing.
3. He\'s coming into this off a 4 month layoff. Even though Frankel is good with layoffs, there is difference between getting a horse ready to win off a layoff to beat inferior horses and having him ready to run close to his peak when a peak effort at this point would be a monumental training mistake if you are trying to prep for the Derby.
4. He could be anything because when they win that big and that easy, you really can\'t tell what they have until they\'ve been challenged and asked. Some go forward and some come up very empty no matter what their speed figures against nothing.
3 out of the 4 are negatives. I rarely take less than 3-1 on horses when I can\'t find anything wrong with them. So I would never even contemplate a wager on this horse at that price. I am much more inclned to bet against him if he goes off at very short odds. If he winds up being a champ I won\'t be surprised. So be it. Some are, but most aren\'t.
We don\'t even need to ask Jerry what he thinks about my pace theory because I already know the answer. He thinks I am wrong. We discussed of couple of races last year.
There are times when the margin of victory of the winner cannot be reconciled with the other horses figures. So as a figure maker you have to make a decision.
Did the winner run an incredible race or did all the other horses run slower then expected?
If you are highly sensitive to pace issues and understand its impact on final time, the answer is sometimes very obvious.
In those cases, the winner ran his normal speed figure and the weaker horses ran their \"usual race\". The weaker horses run a slower final figure because they are forced to run pace figures than are much higher than they would typically run when asked to run against horses of similar ability to themselves.
Expressed numerically:
Strong Horse = 100P 100F
Weaker Horses = 90P 90F
Race Shape = 100P 100F
Weaker Horses = 97P 83F.
When the margin is 7 lengths instead of the expected 4, a figure maker might be tempted to give the winner a 107 instead of 100. To a handicapper that is not sensitive to pace, it makes more sense that the superior horse ran faster than that several other horses suddenly ran slower.
By the way, I should add that when the track is very sloppy/muddy the margins between horses often tend to be much larger than is typical on fast tracks. That can also have a distorting effect on figures by overrating winners in order to make sense of the figures of the losers.
Post Edited (03-12-05 15:40)
TGAB,
>But I have a question for Ch--what about the closers who are aren\'t necessarily affected by the pace?<
Somtimes closers are impacted by pace and sometimes they are not.
Somtimes the impact is favorable and sometimes it is negative.
If the pace is very slow, they are often strung out anyway because of the number of horses and run even slower than normal early. That can impact them negatively.
If the pace is slow for the first quarter and then gets extremely fast in the middle (which does happen from time to time), it will take a toll on the frontrunners. However, it can also take a toll on the closers that are trying to make their usual position improving move during the middle of part of the race. So even though they are off the pace, they are being used hard to get into contention, keep or improve their postion etc...
On the flip side, if the pace is extremely fast early and the middle slows down, when the closers do start their move (even though they will be further back than usual in terms of lengths) they will encounter less resistance than is typical when they do catch up because all the front runners are totally exhausted. That would tend to help them.
There is no hard fast formula for all this because all the horses are different (different levels of brilliance, stamina, acceleration, ability etc...) The impact is also not limited to quarters or to what is happening on the front end. It could be an 1/8. Different levels of ability between horses in the same exact race can also mean that the same exact fraction could be fast for one competitor in the race but easy for another.
If you think in terms of human athletes, use common sense, watch races very carefully to see who is being used hard, who is not and when etc.., have a good set of pace figures to supplement your visual skills (or study the fractions closely), you will feel like a blind man that can see. That\'s what happened to me at least. IMO, it often makes all the difference in the world when interpreting results.
Post Edited (03-12-05 15:44)
Early money is interesting. High Limit and Scipion are 3-1, with Kansas City Boy at 7-2.
Vicarage is a wild card in this race, not necessarily for the win, but he will mess up the pace scenario. He is quick, quick enough to either set the pace or push High Limit and/or KC Boy.
I am thinking High Limit over Storm Surge and Sort it OUt. I thought they would be very chalky, but they are paying 52 and 59.
Not bad.
Odds are interesting.
I \"would have liked\" to bet KCB because I think he could be sitting on top of a big one. I like that fast WO coming in. However, the outside post and the \"potential\" for ground loss and being used early etc.. I think is a tad too much for me to get thrilled about at 7-2.
High Limit is not getting heavy action.
Maybe Scipion is a bit over bet.
Sort it Out is probably close to decent value from the rail. I wish I felt confident he was going to fire big today. I like to move to Baffert, but there\'s a big gap in workouts and his last was so much better than some of his other races, he may be less likely to run his best.
Unfortunately, it looks like another pass for me even though I think Scipion is a tad overbet here.
Post Edited (03-12-05 16:12)
Scipion is the best looking horse in the post parade. Despite the fact that DRF has the race on ESPN2 (IT IS NOT - no wonder racing can\'t get new fans), I am making the effort to channel surf to watch the race. Guess which channel has it...........?
Phone Bet TV in Philadelphia.
Too late to take a train and bet Scipion.....
it is 4:22PM and ESPN2 decided to break away from BB to cover the race............
High Limit taking all the late money.
Well CH, what do you think of his \"false figures\" now?
Someone said this was a $600K allowance race. They got it right. High Limit never changed leads - what a bunch of garbage cans..........Frankel laughs all the way to the bank. Glad I don\'t bet anymore....
Just set a stakes record. High Limit....where to next for this horse??
Horsemanship......
Frankel has it
Baffert doesn\'t
Nice Call TGAB
Well he won, but I don\'t think he proved too much today either. He got loose and it must have been pretty darn slow \"early\" because no one was able to make any move at any point. They pretty much went 1, 2, 3 around the track. The good news for Frankel is that I am assuming he wasn\'t 100%, so he may get better. He\'ll eventually get tested though.
lol Silver
Bafferts entry was an afterthought and his horse obviously was not right for the dance. You could see that going in though.
The Frankel horse had a lot go his way. The pace looked marginal to me, but it half figured to. The track was quick and the come from behinds were compromised and didn\'t fire. They ran 1-2-3 around the track on those tepid fractions.
Which is not to say this might not be a good horse.
I never said his figures were false. I said I don\'t know what his figures are because I don\'t know the horses behind him. However, I do see horses like this with suspect figures.
I also thought he was vulnerable today, but it certainly improved his chances when no one made any effort to challenge him early and the other horses with figures didn\'t lift a hoof.
class,
every step of the race was impressive. this horse exploded. he figured to run well going 1/16th at FG though. my predction - a peace rules like finish 3rd in the derby at best. i don\'t like his pedigree stretching out.
Post Edited (03-12-05 16:40)
If there is a TV camera around either Bob or Jill will be loitering around somewhere nearby. He said a week ago the horse had lost weight and needed time and then here he was today.
High Limit may have had things his own way but the trainer had him ready. I\'ll say this once, if other trainers are taking edges then Frankel and Pletcher will also take edges and beat you. If no one is allowed to take edges then Frankel and Pletcher will still beat you.
Just not as often as witnessed by their reduction in number of starters this year as compared to last.
Post Edited (03-12-05 16:46)
Michael,
I must have higher standards for impressive. He certainly didn\'t do anything wrong so I can\'t trash him. However, you can\'t have it any easier than that. He was loose, going slow early, and KCB didn\'t fire. Sort it Out was a little more suspect to run well, but he didn\'t either. Most of the other horses that could have challenged late didn\'t have much of shot under this pace scenario. He proved more today than in the past because at least these weren\'t garbage cans behind him, but IMO, he has a lot to prove yet.
I consider impressive to be dueling off a \"major contender\" early, repulsing a bid from one of the stalkers and then drawing off in fast time. He has yet to be tested by a reasonable pace and another horses of quality and we know what happens to lots of horses when they do.
Personally I think the most impressive thing is that Frankel is smart enough to not have had him wound up 100% today with the Derby being the target. So I do think there\'s more in the tank.
I think the one-two result, which was not unforeseeable here is clear evidence that the cheating is not completely under control. Whether its EPO or bloodpacking or Steroids or what have you. You had Allday run One-Two and I\'m sure you all took note of that. It doesnt mean the Allday trainers don\'t get credit for winning right now but that was typical M.O. for the phenomena.
CTC,
So you think the slow pace contributed nothing to Vicarage hanging around for second.
Hell if you knew it, I guess you was all over the ex. UH??? if not then why even play the races anymore?? if you think there is all this cheating...........
yeah, i mean obviously, but this was a sprint horse essentially backing up in sprints (granted good sprints) I dont know. Do they test for the Shakes in La? Or is there something else going on there?....I think you should analyze this result carefully in regard to the N.O. Handicap.
Kev, I cashed that race. It doesnt\' mean I like it.
In my opinion all bets are off on the legitimately trained horses in the N.O.
Post Edited (03-12-05 17:07)
I am thinking of taking a stab against Badge of Silver. The two I am interested in are Limehouse and to a lesser extent Pollard\'s Vision. Both are trained by Pletcher, but drugs have nothing to do with my opinion.
I like BOS a lot, but I don\'t think 9F is optimal even though he won at that distance already.
I think both of Pletcher\'s horses are coming into this race ready for a big effort. I hope I can get a decent price on both because I\'d have no problem betting both horses.
Naturally, there are several other horses in there with a decent chance for an upset also, but I am leaning to Pletcher.
I would have made Wanderin Boy a great bet here pre La. Derby. Now I think he\'ll take the lead and get worn down by both BOS and Pollard. The extra sixteenth is gonna play to the juice animals in my opinion.
Limehouse late for the top 4 as well. How far into it is anyones guess.
One last thing. IF Wanderin Boy is able to win this thing, it does not mean the Allday boys were not cheating today. He\'ll win without me though. I\'m watching.
Post Edited (03-12-05 17:25)
Oh I\'m sorry, I didn\'t know that, didn\'t fine your picks anywhere to that race....anyone capping the razorback at OP tom.??? Looks like a nice betting race. Looks like Purge is ready to run a big one. 5-2m/l on him.
It seems like the popular post-race reaction on the board is to downgrade High Limit\'s performance today.
I don\'t quite see why if you look at the numbers.
First, he was the fastest horse going into the race and he probably improved off his 2yo top in his first start at 3. My guess is that his was the fastest 2-turn Derby prep this year to date (I would guess that he ran somewhere between a -1 and a 0 but we will have to wait and see what the figure turns out to be), which is probably fast enough to win the Derby if he can repeat it.
He equaled the stakes record.
His mile time was only 3/5 of a second slower than that for Badge of Silver and he was carrying 4 more lbs than BOS.
His final time was a full second faster than Summerly\'s who likely either paired her top (a pretty fast \"3\") or ran a new top and all the internal fractions were much faster for HL.
It was his first start in 4 months.
So give the horse a break and give it some credit.
Now if you want to question his ability to get the distance, then go ahead - that\'s a legit question. He might not run his best at 10f but his sire has already sired a Derby winner so his breeding is not that much of a stretch and probably as good as most of the other top contenders.
If you want to point out that he may have ran too fast off the bench and you wonder if he can maintain that form through the Derby, then go ahead - that\'s another legit question. But if any trainer can get a horse to string together several big efforts in a row, it\'s Bobby Frankel.
I am sure there are other legit questions to be asked and certainly the Derby is a long way off for all those prepping, but at least give the horse some credit for this effort; it was a huge race.
I admit that I am biased since I played him in the last future pool thinking that he looked like the one horse that might be another \"freak\" in the mold of Smarty Jones with Frankel taking over the training duties as an added bonus, but even a more objective observer would have a hard time discrediting that big effort today.
One thing is for sure. The Derby trail is always interesting for the racing fan and there is certainly room for all sorts of conflicting opinions along the way
Cheers.
Chris
Yes, I have a question:
What do High Limit\'s previous trainer, his current trainer, he second place finisher in the Louisiana Derby as well as the first, second and fourth place finishers in the New Orleans Handicap have in common?
Isn\'t it funny how these commonalities keep rearing their head?
Great training, great horses. I may pass the Derby this year if they can\'t get a handle on this nonsense. BOS\'s rebreak was a thing of beauty.
Thats fine CTC, but it\'s not like these are 10k claimed horses jumping up to stakes. Thats my point as for the top trainers, their going to get the good baby\'s, it\'s going to be harder for you guys to prove anything when their getting well bred horses all the time. I said that early if this is driving some people crazy, then stop playing horse racing. Hell Todd and Bobby lose about 70% of the time anyways.
Unless its been the Breeders Cup they haven\'t been losing 70% of the time in the 500K races the last 4-5 years.
I\'m concerned for the game. I caught the one race and was half appalled by it. I expected it to be a bit tougher than that.
Wanderin Boy was a good horse ready to run a good race and he pushed BOS and essentially cooked himself. On those fractions BOS should have been cooked too. I\'m appalled at what I saw and what makes it even the more unpalatable is I called it. I knew it was gonna happen. These guys are ruining the game and many of you are darn close to accomplices. Apologists. Todd Pletcher did not eclipse Wayne Lukas in this manner. Bobby Frankel didn\'t suddenly happen upon the horse fountain of youth four years ago. If you don\'t understand whats going on you\'re hopeless.
It\'s funny you bring you Wanderin Boy before the race was going ot be ran, I said I hope this horse doesnt run a big one, cause I like his pattern and wanted a off race and some weeks to play him right back, looks like I got the off race. Umm check your stats Todd P. is batting at 23% in stakes and Bobby F. is 28% now what??? Hell check this out, Todd P. horses that go off at 4-1 to 10-1 is only winning at 12% and they make up 29% of his starts. Just wait your Wanderin Boy should run well next out, would like to see that number first.
I did make a nice sized bet on Limehouse in the New Orleans Handicap. Even though I didn\'t cash, I\'m satisfied I got good value for my money.
I also think the race was very instructive. The pace was clearly very competitive. Notice that Badge of Silver (the higher quality of the two speeds) went on to win the race despite being used hard, yet Wanderin Boy who was coming off a \"loose lead\" win backed up quite badly as the second best speed.
I don\'t care what speed figure anyone gave Wanderin Boy for his last race. I don\'t care what they give him for yesterday\'s performance. His prior race was overrated because he got a good trip loose on the lead. Yesterday\'s performance will be underrated because he was used hard against a superior horse on the lead. There are no bounces, patterns, etc.. to his numbers for these races. That will be total nonsense. In fact, after I get to examine the pace figures a bit more closely, I wouldn\'t be shocked if the two performances were very similar despite the vastly different speed figures they will be assigned.
I think BOS ran a terrific race. Again, I need to examine the charts and pace etc... a little more closely. There is some indication the track was carrying speed well. Maybe that\'s why he was able to get the distance despite being used so hard. I didn\'t think that was the case before the race because even though a few horses wired, there were no suprises. Subsequently (given his win and the next 2 race results) perhaps the track was biased. Given the duel, Limehouse may have won on an honest racetrack. It\'s a tough call.
If the track was honest, BOS\'s race may also be better than the speed figure assigned would seem to indicate.
Post Edited (03-13-05 09:32)
derby,
I don\'t think the issue is \"How Fast High Limit Ran\".
The issue is \"How He Ran Fast\".
You can never knock a horse that puts up a huge speed figure (which HL probably did yesterday), but you can downgrade the performance because of the conditions it was earned under.
Notice the difference in the pace between the Louisiana Derby and the New Orleans Handicap. Even though the difference was only 3/5s after a mile, the difference between the horses is much larger than that. BOS was engaged by another decent horse and battled in vastly superior fractions.
High Limit earned his figure against the second string 3 year olds (several of which didn\'t even fire), on a loose lead, in a slow pace, on what now appears to have been a speed biased race track (if anything). If he didn\'t win and run fast under these conditions, he would probably be an automatic throwout in his next prep.
Given that he did run fast and win easily, I think we can conclude he is pretty good. He proved more yesterday than he did at 2. But I think we can also conclude with complete certainly that whatever figure he is assigned for that race, it wasn\'t nearly as good a performace as the figure would indicate.
The trick from here is to figure out where he goes next. I am of the belief that despite Frankel\'s ability to get horses ready off a layoff, he couldn\'t possibly be dumb enough to have this horse 100% wound up for the LA Derby when the Kentucky Derby is the objective. I think there is a little more in the tank.
I believe it is possible that he will run a slower figure in his next race (because of less favorable trip related issues), but actually run better. Others may call it a bounce or say he ran too fast too early or whatever, but I think the reality will have a lot to do with trips.