Wow, been a while since I\'ve been by the old TG board except to get the Derby sheets and I can\'t recognize a thing on this new bulletin board. Amazing how avoiding studying for a criminal law final will get you back here. I just noticed something intersting (again, while avoiding studying) everyone knows the BC Juvenile jinx in the Derby, no horse has ever won both. But, in the last 10 years, has any horse who has RUN in the BC Juv ever won the Derby? War Emblem didn\'t, Monarchos didn\'t, Pegasus didn\'t, Charismatic sure as hell didn\'t, Real Quiet didn\'t, Silver Charm didn\'t, I don\'t think Grindstone or Thunder Gulch did, I\'m pretty sure neither Lil E. Tee or Sea Hero did and almost positive neither Zito, Strike the Gold or Go for Gin did. The last horse I can remember running in the Juv and winning the Derby is Alysheba. That\'s starting to look like a pretty good toss, especially since many recent short prices have come out of the Juv (Point Given, Favorite Trick, Came Home). Kinda goes to the whole too fast too soon theory. Hey, as long as I\'m back here, I\'m going to toss in a plug for my boy Nick Canani since I see Alydar has come out of his short retirement. Did you catch the Inglewood? Helluva race. 3/5ths off the track record...
Spend A Buck was 3rd in the Juvinile.
Sea Hero also ran in the Juvinile.
Two recent Remson winners have won the Derby..... I think the mile and an eighth race this year at Arlington might do a better job at exposing the too fast too soon types. So don\'t be too quick to toss this years winner in Derby 2003!!
Interesting point but I\'m not so sure it applies. It only works if you believe trainers are benching the Derby horses in the Juv because they think the can win at 1 1/8 but not at 1 1/16. The point is not the the Derby winner has been flying late and running out of ground in the juv, it\'s that he hasn\'t even been there at all. However, as far as winners go, is there any doubt that Favorite Trick, Point Given, Anees or any of the other Derby busts would have been able to go another 1/16? I think they all would have won. Finally, I hadn\'t caught the Remsen angle but I wasn\'t suggesting Derby winners weren\'t class horses at 2 (except for Charismatic) I was just saying that they weren\'t precocious enough to make it to the big dance at 2 and those who did, don\'t seem to do too well in the Derby.
Favorite Trick was a nice miler, and Anees was a back running sprinter who actually loved speed favoring strips. To be honest, I think a dull November strip at Arlington definitely would have exposed both of those horses.(especially at 1 1/8m). As for Point Given\'s year, I think it is fair to say that the top three finishers (Street Cry included) turned out to be the three most precocious, as well as the best three period.
But who knows?? I just hold the opinion that nine furlongs at Arl will give us a better hint of who can run well in the Derby than the mile and a sixteenth at Hollywood or Gulfstream. I guess we will know for sure in a year or so!!! Nice discussion mate, take care..........
Forgive me, but have they changed the distance for the juvinile from a mile and a sixteenth to a mile and one eighth?
MO
Yup.