JB,
I\'ve been reviewing the Beyer figures for some of the CA stakes races for 2005.
Almost all the dirt stakes horses are running Beyer figures below Par for the class. Granted, the better older horses are usually not wound up 100% at this point in the season, but these are low Beyer figures. So if the CA Beyers are inflated relative to other tracks, the CA stakes horses are totally dreadful so far this year.
Here\'s a few covering multiple divisions. Some figures may have been tweaked a point or two since they were first given out. Beyer does go back and tweak things from time to time.
Mailbu 102
Strub 109
San Antonio 102
San Pasqual 96
San Rafael 93
Sham 100
Sn Fernando 102
San Vincente 91
Santa Monica 100
Santa Ysabel 86
El Encino 95
Palos Verdes 103
La Canada 95
Las Virgenes 91
Santa Maria 97
Pretty much all of these figures are below par for the specific class except for the Sham. Decent 3YOs start breaking into the low 100s right around now.
Post Edited (03-04-05 09:45)
Which makes me wonder why you might think they are inflated? They are poor to be sure, I don\'t think it is possible they could be much lower.
Class,
I have long been on the side that the east coast horses tend to have inflated beyer numbers. Sometimes I look at the winner of the champagne and frizette and the huge numbers and scratch my head thinking that they are too high.
I mean socal racing has taken a beating, and as well they should in some cases, but they can compete. Last year was supposed to be a super down year, and they still won two BC races. The year before they won 5. I also see them shipping into win the met mile, cigar, carter, etc. So maybe here and there a number could be off, but in general they live up to the numbers.
Now vica versa, I can hardly remember, other then good reward, a horse who shipped east and got it done recently. I do know some horse tried it in a restricted to four year old stake this meet and got burried by average horses like imperilism and rock hard ten.
I hadn\'t even considered the possibility that the CA figures were inflated. Yesterday Jerry said they might be so I looked for some evidence of it. I think it is relevant to the Fountain of Youth where Papi Chullo is shipping in with a good CA Beyer relative to that field.
Given that almost all theses races are slow relative to par, there is no evidence they are inflated. I happen to think that CA has some pretty bad horses out there right now though.
my contention is that they dont have the depth, but as far as the cream goes its not all that bad. I mean in recent years Azeri, Pleasently Perfect, Storming Home, Pico Central all shipped around the world and won. How bad can they be?
I\'m not offering an opinion about the California horses, which are strong in some divisions and weak in others, and I\'m not offering an opinion about California Beyers vs. \"pars\" for certain types of races. I\'m offering an opinion about Beyers for California races vs. Beyers for races in other places.
If you go back on this board to a few days after the Sunshine Millions, you will find a post I made about the horses from all over the country who ran, how they looked on Beyer, and how they looked on TG. Specifically, I made the point about the first 3 finishers in the race Lost In The Fog won, who came from 3 different circuits, and the FG shipper (Hot Storm) who won the 2yo filly race. As it happens, LITF and Santana Strings are back in the Swale, and Hot Storm is back in the Forward Gal-- if you take a look at their Beyers and TG figures you will see the kind of thing I\'m talking about.
By the way, Santana Strings will carry 116, not the 122 listed.
TGJB,
>I\'m offering an opinion about Beyers for California races vs. Beyers for races in other places.<
I understand, but that doesn\'t make any sense based on his CA figures.
If the CA figures are inflated relative to other places and the CA stakes figures are running below the PAR for the class, that would mean that all those other tracks must we running WAY below par for the class.
There is no evidence of that.
Perhaps he screwed up a \"few\" CA figures, but generally the CA figures are in sync with the other major circuits.
Perhaps he has Turfway and another track or two too low.
However, based on the CA figures running below average, I can\'t believe they are inflated in general.
Ragozin is another story.
\"If the California figures are inflated relative to the other places and the CA stakes figures are running below the par for the class, that would mean that all those other tracks are running WAY below par for the class\".
No, it doesn\'t. Think it through.
The right way to find out is to look at a large sampling of horses from various parts of the country when they move around, especially at neutral sites-- meaning when they aren\'t shipping cold to warm. Sunshine Millions and BC were good examples.
The test is not who wins-- it\'s what figures horses from different circuits run relative to their other figures. Beyer says they have a program for this-- well, it ain\'t working.
TGJB,
I understand the technique you are suggesting, but I don\'t have the database required to do a detailed study like that. Andy supposedly does though and I would be surprised if he doesn\'t spot check CA and NY.
I\'ve done an enormous amount of work over the years on the average winning figure for stakes races by grade, age, sex, and time of year - using Beyer figures (PARs).
Typically, there are weak divisions and sections of the country from time to time, but the figures have been remarkably consistent over the long haul. The average figure for stakes (especially high level older horses) tend to hover around the PAR.
With virtually every stakes division in CA (on dirt) currently running figures below PAR, that strongly suggests that these are all below average horses.
If these figures are also inflated relative to some other tracks around the country, that would certainly mean that this is the most dreadful group of CA stakes horses - covering multiple divisions - we\'ve seen in decades (on a relative basis).
I can\'t believe that is true. They are weak, but they aren\'t dreadful. I think it is far more likely he screwed up a few days or figures in CA or that some of his figures from second tier tracks are too low. But CA almost cannot be inflated.
On dirt, they have indeed been dreadful, and more importantly, thin. That was the thinking behind the purchase of 5yo Even The Score-- he was maybe the 40th best older male dirt horse east of the Rockies, but we sent him to California where as a 6yo he won two GIIs, and was favored for the GI Hollywood Gold Cup, which he would have won if not for a wide trip.
Take a look at how few horses that had been running in California were even entered in the BC dirt races, and where they finished on average. Take a look at the horses that won the big 3yo stakes in California, and how they ran against Eastern 3yos. Most importantly, look at how the figures we assigned horses for all those races and others held up.
This is not to say all California divisions are weak-- the turf horses are strong, as are the current 3yo fillies. But if you think Declan\'s Moon and Roman Ruler really ran the figures Beyer gave them at DMR, if you think Lost In The Fog ran 3 lengths better at Turf Paradise than Gulfstream, if you think Hot Storm ran the best race of her life by many lengths at SA, if you think RHT and Imperialism ran 109 at SA last time, think again. I mean, doesn\'t it seem a little weird to you that those last two get all their best figures in California?
RHT figure from the last two were high in my opinion, and I pointed that out here.
I still think in general though that the numbers are correct.
I guess you say that the 40th best east coast horse was purchased to be sent to beat up on weaker competition, but if thats the case how come numbers 1-39 dont take advantage of all the stakes cash thats out there in socal of they are superior?
Drum roll...
Because I\'m not advising them.
Also because trainers don\'t like to ship, and horses often need time to acclimate-- which means staying with other trainers. The ones who do run on both coasts-- like Frankel-- usually are California based.
intersting beyer/TG difference shows up in the big cap at SA. beyer has the strub pretty fast (109). TG has the race pretty slow (considering imperialism was 1w/4w). i remember thinking that race kind of collapsed. i though imperialism ran close to his previous top, maybe a bit faster though. TG has him repeating. in the san antonio, it\'s the other way around. beyer has the race on the average side (104), while TG has it a bit faster. will be interesting to see how the big cap unfolds. i see TGJB\'s point regarding the FOY. KCB and PC ran the same beyer in their last race (considering the 1 length KCB gave), and TG has KCB considerably faster. i liked PC in the sham, but only because the race looked real weak to me. as for declan\'s 7f race at Dmr, looks like TG is alone on that one. a \"4.5\" for a 1:21.1 run? how fast could the track have been that day? snack\'s #\'s aren\'t that far apart. add the six lengths that beyer doesn\'t account for, and he has snack\'s last pretty fast also. interesting horse; he won\'t be six wide in this small field, especially with three of them going.
TGJB,
didn\'t see your post, took a while to get through my last one (finishing work here). i guess i addressed some of the same points as you did. will be a very interesting day.
Lets not forget that Even the Score\'s trainer was Vladimir Cerin who was caught using milkshakes.
Michael, in general, that\'s the right way to approach the question. Specifically, that\'s the kind of thing I did with several posts in Spring 03 examining Ragozin\'s sprint vs. route figures in California, and in other posts before the BC that year looking at his numbers in general. That stuff upset a lot of people, but common sense goes a long way.
I haven\'t looked at any turf figures for CA.
I think we agree that that there are \"some\" inflated CA figures (Roman Ruler/Declan for sure).
Some of the Turfway Park figures look low.
I haven\'t examined everything.
However, something like RHT and Imperialism running a 109 is not impossible. That\'s actually a weak Beyer figure for a Grade I older horse. They usually run around a 115. It\'s also pretty much in line with any expected improvement from their 3YO form from last year. Another Beyer guy (different source) has an almost identical number for that race. If it\'s off, it\'s not by much.
Beyer has the other older horses in CA running figures the low 100s. That\'s the PAR for classified allowance and listed stakes horses. If those figures are also inflated then the very best older horses in CA would have trouble with the typical top inner dirt track horse in NY. That can\'t be right.
You may be right about some of his circuits being out of sync, but CA can\'t be inflated in general. You would have to be more familiar with his scale and the PARs to appreciate what I mean. It\'s the other way around. Other circuits are too low.
Post Edited (03-04-05 19:20)
CH-- RHT and Imperialism would not only have trouble with the top inner track horses, they would get whipped by them-- but only under the circumstances (ahem) that exist over the inner track.
RHT and Imperialism haven\'t been running against older horses, they\'ve been running in races restricted to 4yos, almost all of them local. Tomorrow they face what most would agree is not a top field of older horses-- take a look at how Congrats, Lundy\'s Liability and Supah Blitz did against Eastern horses, compared to how they\'ve done out west. The only real good one is Saint Liam, and there are a lot of reasons to think he may not fire, as I said in ROTW.Let\'s see how it plays out.
Mr. Hill-- Vlado and I aren\'t exactly pals these days, but I was pretty close to the situation when ETS was running, and I can tell you with a fair degree of confidence that he wasn\'t using anything then, since he was trying to help me get the crap stopped, and was the one who put together the petition all the trainers signed asking management to build a detention barn. My guess is that he got tired of getting beat, and tired of not enough being done about what all the trainers knew was going on.
TGJB,
Again, you may be right about the \"relative\" figures, but it is highly likely you are wrong about where the problem is. The problem is not CA (except maybe a specific race here or there). The problem is elsewhere. Believe me, I would never question your figure relationships, but I think you are not familiar enough with the Beyer scale and norm to see where his problem might be.
RHT\'s CA figure prior to the Preakness and his Preakness figure (where he was very wide) were very similar on Beyer\'s scale. Given a figure of 100+ in May, a 109 in March of the following year is sensible for a 3yo. It\'s quite \"low\" for a Grade I older horse, but it\'s sensible in relation to his Preakness performance and other CA figures. If it\'s off, it\'s off by a length or a touch more.
More importantly, according to Beyer, Congrats is running even slower since he came to CA!!!!!!
So if I were to subtract from his CA Beyers because they are supposedly inflated, then you are telling me he got much slower since going to CA. I just don\'t believe that Congrats is running much slower since he came to CA. It\'s virtually impossible.
Beyer may need to up his figures for certain circuits outside CA to bring them all into sync, but if he were to reduce his CA figures (other than a race here or there) it would be a disaster. He\'d have Congrats running slower than most horses that run for a 35K tag. He\'s bad, but he\'s not that bad.
You have a 100% understanding of your figures and may be right about the relative problems Beyer is having with various circuits.
>Tomorrow they face what most would agree is not a top field of older horses<
By the way, I agree.
They are a horror show except for St. Liam.
However, if I were to slow them down on Beyer\'s scale I would be very tempted to claim a horse at Finger Lakes and take him to the SA Handicap because he\'d be a stick out. :-)
Leaving now, but a couple of things-- it\'s not about whether a figure is sensible, it\'s about whether it\'s right. Horses develop at different rates-- the question is not how much horses develop on average (we use the TGI for that), but how much THIS one developed. It would be a very big mistake to make figures based on projected development.
The problem (or one of them), as I said, is the Beyer relationships between California and all other tracks-- if you want to say they have all the other tracks slow relative to CA, fine. The problem is systemic, independent of blowing individual days/races. And incidentally, not that it would necessarily be meaningful, look at the raw times for the Strub and San Antonio, run on consecutive days at the same distance.
Good night.
Why don\'t they jusy give the ok to use any meds you want. The DRF could list the meds the horses are on in the form. No ???
Feb. 6th San Antonio:
23 1/5, :47, 1:11, 1:49:05
Feb. 5th Strub
22.27, 45.16, 1:09.62, 1:35.64, 1:49.24
I think that Imperialism loves Santa Anita. I think he runs his very best races there. The Strub was very quick. We\'re gonna see how these races shake out in the next couple days. I don\'t think California is quite up to the best East Coast handicap horses. I don\'t think Rock Hard Ten is quite up to the best California\'s at 10 marks but hes not real far off.
The issue is the 3 year olds. They aren\'t California horses. Why should they be slower? The FOY will be the first test. I\'d prefer Valenzuela on Papi Chullo. I have no idea why K.C. Boy ducked the race, though I do think he\'s a notch below the others. He had a good spot though.
CtC
>Horses develop at different rates-- the question is not how much horses develop on average (we use the TGI for that), but how much THIS one developed. It would be a very big mistake to make figures based on projected development.<
I agree.
I didn\'t even make a figure for that race.
However, I was expecting RHT to move forward off his sprint and a 109 Beyer was within the range I was expecting based on his overall record. I agree that it is possible they overstated that figure by a few points (which would mean that Going Wild might be off a little too). I\'m too lazy to go back and check it because I don\'t think a few points will change my view on this race.
Maybe we will learn more tomorrow, but I suspect that other than St. Liam, most of the other contenders are so similar in ability that whoever gets the best trip or improves a bit will get second money.
ctc,
KCB ducked because he was five lengths slower than high fly, and HF just got a rider change to bailey. why bother? the LaD is worth more, and the horse might prefer those tighter turns.
as for the strub, beyer has it fast, but i think he is the only one. the 10f big cap is a different animal. imp and RHT will do their thing. it\'s the san antonio that is the wildcard. judge that race correctly, add a furlong, and you get the winner. not easy.
>as for the strub, beyer has it fast, but i think he is the only one.<
He doesn\'t have it fast. He has it slow. He just has it a tad faster than some of the other terrible races in CA. Another source has the same figure.
No, he has it fast. The question is not how fast it is compared to some \"par\", it\'s how fast it is compared to other races. You are not betting horses out of the race against \"par\"-- you are betting them against horses out of the San Antonio and other races.
TGJB,
Why do we have to keep going in circles?
When someone says a race is fast that means the horses ran fast relative to some norm or par for the class!
He has the race slow!
He has the race faster on a relative basis than you do and I believe you are correct that he might be off by about 3-4 Beyer points.
CH-- you think Michael meant that Beyer has it fast compared to par, or to other races?
That\'s why we keep going in circles. The only one concerned about pars is you.
class,
he gave the race a 109, and he doesn\'t account for ground loss. imp was 2w/4w. 109 is fast.......
what to do with my old favorite imperialism here. the race sets up for him perfectly, but the beat last out was a killer. if i didn\'t cash there at 7-1 or so, i probably shouldn\'t be betting him today.
TGJB,
I didn\'t know what Michael meant. That\'s why I was clarifying.
The only reason I have been commenting about pars is because of the issue of whether Beyer\'s CA figures are systematically too fast or other areas of the country are systematically too slow.
I am of the opinion, that CA is generally OK and other parts of the country are suspect on the slow side. (TP for one)
IMHO, the best way determine \"where\" the problem is when using Beyer\'s scale is by looking at how fast horses are running relative to the norm/par.
If one entire circuit is slower than normal and another is running right at normal and you know based upon racing results that one of them is wrong, you can be pretty sure it\'s the slow circuit that\'s wrong.
That\'s what my analysis of CA suggests.
Michael,
Top older horses average a 115 excluding ground loss. 112 is the average for Grade 2. So by giving it a 109, he was saying that these are subpar older horses. If we are correct in saying he might have it a tad too fast (more like a 105). then he is saying that RHT is a well below par Grade I older horse.
Here is another source of Beyer scale figures. He gave the race a 107.
www.pacefigures.com
class,
i plead ignorance on beyer pars. comparing his # to other speed figures which take into account ground loss (on that race), he has it fast. that\'s my only point...... on to the race. who does everybody like? i\'m still deciding.
Post Edited (03-05-05 18:38)
Michael,
>what to do with my old favorite imperialism here. the race sets up for him perfectly, but the beat last out was a killer. if i didn\'t cash there at 7-1 or so, i probably shouldn\'t be betting him today.<
I\'m of the opinion that the only things that can beat St. Liam are 10F or a rough trip on the front end from the outside (pace and ground loss). Maybe a combination of both.
I expect him to fire another good race.
If he does fire a big one, it will take a much improved performance by someone to beat him. St Liam\'s ability is somewhat hidden because not only is he pretty darn fast, he earned some of those figures pressing very demanding paces against better horses than these. IMO, some of his races are better than the speed figures indicate.
I am also of the opinion that the horses most likely to improve are the ones that are recently turned 4YOs and perhaps also Lundy\'s Liability because he is very lightly raced and was clearly prepped for this.
However, among that second tier, when I balance their recent form vs. the probability of improving vs. the probability of getting a good trip I think it is very wide open and confusing.
The only real opinion I have is that Truly a Judge might be vulnerable for the place spot because he faces \"potential\" pressure on the front end from a superior horse like St Liam and then must negotiate 10F after that. That insight is worthless in this case though because it\'s not like Truly a Judge is going to be the second choice where I could throw hin out of the exacta. His odds will be longer. I see no value based on what I believe the odds will be. That makes this race a non event for me other my sporting interest.
Maybe they\'ll bet it in a surprising way and I\'ll change my mind.
Post Edited (03-05-05 18:47)
The avg. winning Beyer for the Strub going back to 1992...is 112.5 avg. for the BC.Classic is 116.6 avg. Ky Derby is 109.46
Michael,
>i plead ignorance on beyer pars.<
There is no reason I can think of why you would need to know that anyway.
The only reason I know is because long ago I built a multi-year database of races with fractions, my own pace figures, Beyer scale speed figures, running positions, lengths behind at various call, class, distance, age, sex, surface, date, days between races, prior distance, trainer, odds, my bias opinion etc.... to study.
I used it as a combination handicapping study aid and information retrieval system.
I am now filled with tons of useless information and a handful of original insights about pace. The entire system was lost years ago when my computer blew out before I backed it all up . :-)
kev,
Thanks.
That is consistent with my research. I would expect the premier Grade Is to be slightly faster than average (the BC) and I would expect the Derby to be discounted by a number of points because the 3YOs are not fully developed.
My research indicated that 3yo colts as a class improved by about 1.1 or 1.2 Beyer point per month.
I had fillies maturing earlier than colts.
kilroe mile - i\'m handicapped out for today, but after a quick look, meteor storm has some competitive #\'s. looks a bit better going longer, but the soft turf might hurt some of the speedier sorts. layoff a major concern, but odds are long (12-1). hoping valdivia saves ground and makes one strong run.
classhandicapper wrote:
> I\'m of the opinion that the only things that can beat St. Liam
> are 10F or a rough trip on the front end from the outside (pace
> and ground loss). Maybe a combination of both.
>
> I expect him to fire another good race.
Saint Liam has a couple massive NegaFigs, but he don\'t have any at 10 marks and throws a Neg 1.5 as much as anything else at 9 marks.
With the distance and weight,(He\'s carried 126 before though, so I dont make the 122 a backbreaker here.) However, I\'d be very suprised if he ran a Neg 1.5. and any ground loss makes him vulnerable to other neg. 1 horses.
I think two have a chance to beat him. Lundy\'s Liability and Supah Blitz. Supah has to get back and keep going. Lundy has to move forward, but hes lightly raced and in excellent hands. I love his pedigree. He appears most likely for the upset. I hate to say it but i\'m gonna key him and not forget Supah Blitz.
Well if you think St. Liam is vulnerable and RHT is a piece of garbage without any chance of finally moving forward you should find this board very interesting.
4th at 14-1 in the kilroe, oh well.....
against good judgement (and against good #\'s), i bet my old favorite imperialism in the big cap. hoping for a decent pace up front. hope the odds drift higher than 5-1, but i won\'t know - off to dinner. good luck everyone. nice ROTW TGJB, if imperialism clunks along for fourth like he probably will, i hope you hit it.
As a matter of fact I dont project increased performance at 10 marks for RHT. I guess we\'ll see.
CH-- I don\'t think RHT is a garbage can and I do think he can move forward. But I would have to be getting a lot more than 7/2 to play a horse to move forward 2 points after that many starts, and that\'s what it would take to be a strong contender here.
CTC,
I agree. I also think that RHT is midly suspect at 10F. He spit it out pretty badly in the Belmont.
If I didn\'t like St\' Liam so much, I would be betting multiple horses to win here. THis is a great board
Post Edited (03-05-05 20:10)
Well I guess this settles the question of whether or not this is a horse with a lot of potential.
Rock Hard Ten
Congrats
Borrego
Grand Reward
That\'ll pay...lol
I wish I had one of them.
I guess that was an empathetic move to the top of the division.
I guess he is not \"over-rated\" and the ROTW jinx continues. About 30 weeks now since a winner....
CTC,
LOL.
To me, the whole thing was wide open after St Liam. Nothing would have shocked me other than maybe Truly a Judge being able to get 10F with other speeds like St Liam in the race. I guess Grand Reward is pretty shocking also.
The winner looked pretty good. I could never take him at that price because I thought St Liam had at least 50% of the race to himself, but IMHO, he was the horse most likely to improve. He\'s a fairly lightly raced just turned 4YO running for Mandella this year after having an interrupted schedule last year. People have been high on this horse for a long time for a lot of good reasons even though he hadn\'t proved it yet.
Did Imperialism run at all?
well...did Congrats get that much better than Truly a Judge and Lundy\'s Liability on the extra furlong? Or did Mandella have them pointed for this one. Mandella is not nearly as good away from Santa Anita, which is not to say RHT didn\'t just disprove the doubting Thomases. I didn\'t like Saint Liam at the distance, but it doesnt matter if you dont cash.
Imperialism, no that a \"phony wide\" fig garbage pail didn\'t run a step.
CTC,
You know what else is pretty interesting.
www.pacefigures.com
had RHT with the top figure coming in. He had a final time figure of 107, but he rated the race superior to that because the pace of the Strub was so fast that RHT had used himself hard at the midpoint of that race even though he was a closer.
I agree with him that the Strub was a brutal pace. I think it makes a lot of sense to wait for Love of Money out of that race. Love of Money ran super to hang on for 3rd that day after that Strub pace.
Imperialism was less likely to move forward than RHT even though he was also a just turned 4YO. He\'s had many more races and he wasn\'t interupted in his campaign like RHT. He\'s got a bad style no matter how you slice it...especially in a big field. Those deep closers are always tough to take.
Class,
Do you mean RHT had a better fig coming in than SL?
miff,
Yes.
I know it\'s somewhere between difficult and impossible to believe that, but it is true.
He had the final time figure slightly slower than Beyer 107 vs. 109. However, he rated RHT\'s overall performance a 111 because of his big move into that very hot pace.
He gave SL a final time figure of 113, but because he ran a slower pace figure, he rated the performance a 109.
I am a big fan of this kind of stuff, but IMHO, St Liam\'s overall performace level has been miles better than RHTs.
Yeah, I know he had a decent pace figure. So did Imperialism though. I thought Strub day was a better day than some did and gave Love of Mom lots of credit for his pace effort.
Congrats on evaluating RHT as a horse with big potential. He\'s a big horse and he did it the way the best distance horses do. I\'ve been very skeptical of him but he\'s proven me wrong. The truth of these things have to be acknowledged. He\'s a Grade I winner at 10 marks, theres not a lot that can say that. Maybe he can go on and meet Eddington, Roses and Ghostzapper in November and settle it. He\'s won three in a row under Mandella, so hes got him going the right way.
The time looked good to me. The track was slow. I suppose I\'m gonna be wrong about DeClans now. :)
Class,
I looked at the pace figs.It looks like he\'s BIASED to hot early paces and somewhat less concerned with the last 3/8ths(which I am equally concerned about)
I agree that RHT has not performed nearly as well as SL.One note, if you did not know,RHT is a well balanced, very correct horse with big time looks. His physical attributes makes me think he could get real good if he stays sound.
I can\'t wait to see the Beyer figure for this one. I don\'t plan on voicing any opinions though. It\'s too time consuming. I\'ll voice my opinions at the windows. :-)
I\'d guess it\'s going to be similar or slightly better than the last one. Those were still some very slow horses behind him and he didn\'t crush them.
I still don\'t think RHT has any chance against an in shape Ghostzapper or RIM. But I do think he has a reasonable chance to move forward at least one more time.
miff,
I agree.
I am a long suffering RHT fan. I saw his debut and 2nd start and was instantly convinced he was \"potential\" star. It was always only \"potential\" though.
His career is better than it looks though.
How many horses just miss in the SA Derby in just their 3rd start and then run fairly well in the Preakness in their 4th?
The Belmont was a debacle, but that was 12 furlongs and he dueled a vastly superior horse in a hot pace. It was a horrendous trip.
He came back fine and then something obviously went wrong at MTH because he ran dreadfully. He couldn\'t be that bad. He went sour. So they stopped on him. That was a good move.
He never really had a chance to develop.
This year he was handled perfectly by Mandella. His first race was nothing special but he got the job done. That was obviously just a prep. The 2nd race was better (no matter how fast you believe it really was and I still don\'t know for sure).
I thought he was fairly likely to run better, but IMO he had a lot of ground to make up on St Liam. I could never take 7-2 on him there when I was giving 50% of the race to St Liam.
I\'ve been saying the same things about this horse for the last 3-4 months. You can read lot of my back posts.
RHT exploded. nice race, fast time. imp was too extended last race. he needs some rest. i should have realized that.... i only have one lasting thought on the race - gary stevens is a brilliant jock.
GO DECLAN!!!!!!!!
Jimbo-- no matter how you cut it, the 1/29 Sunshine Millions ROTW was a \"winner\", if there is such a thing. As for this week, I put knocks on the first FOUR favorites, three of whom did not crack the top five finishers, and made it clear I liked the 14-1 shot who ran second, a lot. Did I myself cash? No. But was this a \"loser\"? Hmmm...
CH-- This race will probably come up about neg 2 or 3, which actually would be around Beyer 109. But you do agree this was a better effort than the Strub-- I assume.
RHT ran well, but let\'s be realistic, guys. Figures aside, as I pointed out before the race, all the horses in the race save one had proven to be far short of top quality when racing against the East Coast horses, and the one good one did not fire.
JB,
Fair enough. On 1/29, the horse you liked came second behind the favorite for a short exacta.
But you have to admit, it has been uncanny in the past few months that often the horse that the ROTW points to as a \"go against\" has continuously won the race.
The posting was a little bit of frustration because I liked Congrats, however, after reading the ROTW, I became more negative on RHT than I was before reading it. I used Borrego, Island Fashion and Congrats, with a few others in the triple, but needed RHT out of the money.
Eventually things should even out, but if you look at the last six months of the ROTW objectively, you would have to admit that it has been a miserable streak and probably the worst period T-Graph has had in the last few years.
congrats had a tough trip. steadied and shuffled back before reaching the first turn. i doubt they wanted to be that far back. he closed well five wide, just had too much to do.
TGJB wrote:
> Jimbo-- no matter how you cut it, the 1/29 Sunshine Millions
> ROTW was a \"winner\", if there is such a thing. As for this
> week, I put knocks on the first FOUR favorites, three of whom
> did not crack the top five finishers, and made it clear I liked
> the 14-1 shot who ran second, a lot. Did I myself cash? No. But
> was this a \"loser\"? Hmmm...
>
> CH-- This race will probably come up about neg 2 or 3, which
> actually would be around Beyer 109. But you do agree this was a
> better effort than the Strub-- I assume.
>
> RHT ran well, but let\'s be realistic, guys. Figures aside, as I
> pointed out before the race, all the horses in the race save
> one had proven to be far short of top quality when racing
> against the East Coast horses, and the one good one did not
> fire.
>
>
well on the beyer leaderboard RHT is not listed so he must have run below a 102. Are you saying you dont think he is top class cause he still has not beat anything?
TGJB wrote:
> CH-- This race will probably come up about neg 2 or 3, which
> actually would be around Beyer 109. But you do agree this was a
> better effort than the Strub-- I assume.
>
> RHT ran well, but let\'s be realistic, guys. Figures aside, as I
> pointed out before the race, all the horses in the race save
> one had proven to be far short of top quality when racing
> against the East Coast horses, and the one good one did not
> fire.
I\'m not gonna smart mouth RHT just now. I may bet against him, but that was a legitimate effort. It certainly wasn\'t two going front end wire to wire in Sally Schoolgirl fractions.
I do have to agree it wasn\'t the best Big Cap field I\'ve ever seen. So much of figures has to do with the extrapolations of wide but breaking this race down it would be very hard to accept Newtops from other than RHT and Grand Reward. It was possible for a negative 1 or even a Zero at the distance to win this with these guys.
I certainly don\'t think Congrats ran a negative 2. Congrats has been a distance shy horse until this last race.
Obviously, I\'ll defer to TGraph on the final figure. It was a good race. Its hard to say it was a great one. It wasn\'t a great field.
Wait til Ghost and Rim have to face a real pace issue.
One other thing. If a Beyer is a 120 (they do show up occasionally) what is the TFig?. about a negative 8-10 I think.
CtC
Post Edited (03-06-05 13:13)
RHT and congrats ran well. imperialism, lundy and truly a judge ran poorly. it\'s going to take a few more races to determine who rated the san antonio and strub races the best.
Jimbo-- Don\'t disagree, an awful lot of horses that we didn\'t like or thought were underlays (like RHT) have bit us. I used RHT only if Congrats and Truly A Judge were both there in the triple, RHT beat me out of a win bet on Congrats as well.
Good thing we didn\'t have a streak like this when I was doing Post Time. It was tough to get up there after even 2 bad weeks in a row.
Of course, we were doing about 3 races a week, which spread things out a little bit.
By the way, the way you played it, with 2 of 3 longshots having to run in the top 3, I would have used RHT, for the same reason I used him in tris with my two longshots. The payoff is too big even with a favorite in to risk it. Of course, it depends on what else you are doing in the race and how much you are putting into it. But you sound like you send it in pretty good.
Sadlle-- no, I\'m not talking about class, and I don\'t think that way. I\'m just saying what I said before the race, which is that the older dirt horse in SoCal aren\'t much-- that was why we were able to buy Even The Score, send him to CA, and win two GIIs.
JB,
YOu are right, I bet the race stupid. Two of three longshots in the money and I don\'t cash. I bet the race hard and SHOULD have had a saver with RHT in there. I over-rated the post position 10 for RHT, thinking he would get stuck wider. Never would have thought Congrats would get a wider trip from PP 3, than RHT from 10.
Even though I didn\'t cash, yesterday was a good day of horse racing and a sign that the \"winter doldrums\" of horse racing are over, and the good racing schedule starts...
Saddlecloth,
no way he ran below 102. They haven\'t done figures for the race yet obviously.
TGJB,
>CH-- This race will probably come up about neg 2 or 3, which actually would be around Beyer 109.<
I believe a negative 2 or 3 would be a little higher for Andy, but I have no idea what he will assign it.
> But you do agree this was a better effort than the Strub-- I assume.<
Absolutely.
It has always been my contention that he was much more likely to improve than people were giving him credit for - not that he was much better than people thought so far. IMO, his only poor efforts were excusable and he didn\'t really get a chance to demonstrate what he could do at 3.
>RHT ran well, but let\'s be realistic, guys. Figures aside, as I pointed out before the race, all the horses in the race save one had proven to be far short of top quality when racing against the East Coast horses, and the one good one did not fire.<
I agree that the CA group is a bad batch.
I agree that St. Liam did not run anywhere near his best, but I\'m not sure that 10F and the outside post didn\'t also contribute to how badly he was beaten. We probably disagree a little on this, but IMO it is often stressful on a frontrunner to be used from the outside to get position when they are also suspect at a distance. They often get beaten a lot worse than you would think between the conbination of the 2.
CTC-- RHT will get about 2 points a better figure than Congrats after weight is factored in. My guess is that Congrats repeated, RHT went forward, Borrego ran back to his top, or close to it.
Michael-- certainly the testing issues inCA were another thing to consider when evaluating St. Liam. It is interesting, and it points out how difficult it is to deal with all this crap-- as I said a couple of weeks ago, who the hell can keep track of what they are supposed to be doing, and what they are actually doing, in each jurisdiction? I mean-- Kentucky banned milkshakes 4 years ago, and passes a rule to start testing for them TWO WEEKS AGO??? What the hell is that? California is testing, except for the 3 days last week they couldn\'t find someone to do the tests? And as far as milkshakes go-- results in CA aren\'t conclusive yet, but the testing may be having an effect. Meanwhile, in NY, with the same testing and far more severe punishment, the boys are still getting numbers.
Detention barns. Frozen samples. Vets listed on the program. Signed forms listing what went into the horse.
And don\'t even get me started about that clown Rick Arthur in California.
beyerguy wrote:
> Saddlecloth,
>
> no way he ran below 102. They haven\'t done figures for the
> race yet obviously.
well they have them up for every other circuit, maybe not
TGJB wrote:
> And don\'t even get me started about that clown Rick Arthur in
> California.
I shouldnt bet Kalfornia cuz I dont\' follow it much. Who is Rick Arthur and whats his gig?
CtC
I don\'t understand something here. What was the reason people didnt like RHT too much??? Low odds ( I think 9.60 is not too bad ) couldnt go the distance?? I didnt play the race, but I look at the ROTW after the fact. Wasnt RHT a horse that should have moved forward?? 4yr just breaking threw a old top by a small amount??? or are you all letting this distance and odds thing play too much into your handicapping, I know most don\'t like to play low odds, thats fair. If a horse is looking like the winner and hes 3-1, you either play the ex\'s or pass or bet to win, why try to beat someone like that?? Someone on Rag\'s board like him at 5-2 and up, what was fair odds on him??? Sounds like he had the same pattern on both sheets.
Rick Arthur is the guy in charge of testing in California. When they first came up with positives, he announced the names of two of the trainers (Mullins and Cerin), but not the third because, he said, that one had in effect given his word that it was a screw-up, and they weren\'t worried about him (turned out to be Canani) because \"We know who\'s been naughty and who\'s been nice\".
Then last week he announced that they hadn\'t been able to test for milkshakes three days, but it had been an \"honest error\"-- the vet who was doing it had needed some days off, and they didn\'t have a backup. Let me get this straight-- YOU DIDN\'T KNOW AFTER THE FIRST DAY YOU HAD A PROBLEM??
In today\'s LA Times it now comes out that Arthur is a regular working vet who the track hired to do the job, rather than bring in one of their own. Meaning, he\'s the vet for SIX trainers he is policing, and potentially could be hired by any of the others.
Delmar Deb might want to chime in with other stuff, but I\'m having a very hard time keeping my comments suitable for family viewing here.
SO TGJB,
What did you think of Mullins calling bettors addicts or idiots?
TGJB wrote:
> Rick Arthur is the guy in charge of testing in California. When
> they first came up with positives, he announced the names of
> two of the trainers (Mullins and Cerin), but not the third
> because, he said, that one had in effect given his word that it
> was a screw-up, and they weren\'t worried about him (turned out
> to be Canani) because \"We know who\'s been naughty and who\'s
> been nice\".
>
> Then last week he announced that they hadn\'t been able to test
> for milkshakes three days, but it had been an \"honest error\"--
> the vet who was doing it had needed some days off, and they
> didn\'t have a backup. Let me get this straight-- YOU DIDN\'T
> KNOW AFTER THE FIRST DAY YOU HAD A PROBLEM??
>
> In today\'s LA Times it now comes out that Arthur is a regular
> working vet who the track hired to do the job, rather than
> bring in one of their own. Meaning, he\'s the vet for SIX
> trainers he is policing, and potentially could be hired by any
> of the others.
>
> Delmar Deb might want to chime in with other stuff, but I\'m
> having a very hard time keeping my comments suitable for family
> viewing here.
>
>
I am glad I do this for fun is all I can say. How long has mandella been using this vet? Since they started the testing, could mandella be that sneaky?
Thats what i get for skimming.
Unbelieveable, these folks in racing don\'t understand the slightest thing about appearance of propriety. We are going to have to dash their piggy bank on the rocks.
Rick Arthur...unbelieveable.
I\'ll rip off a letter to Santa Anita...this is crazy.
Ok, I\'ll chime in...now that I\'ve finished my rant over the state of racing out here via email and telephone for the past 3 hours!
Rick Arthur is a practicing vet in southern CA and includes Mandella and Headley among his clients. HOWEVER, he has been both an advisor and technical consultant to the CHRB and racetracks for as long as I can remember. Arthur was the one person that every faction of racing seemed to feel comfortable with in going to for an opinion, advice, etc. on medication related matters.
The track is doing the testing from its own resources...remember, milkshakes are not illegal here and do not fall under the auspices of the CHRB yet. Arthur is not a \"shill\" for the tracks, anymore than Ingrid Fermin is \"after\" Mullins. If she had not included Mullins horses in the testing program, she would be ignoring every piece of information available to the public via Beyer and TG numbers, visual moves within a race of elongated acceleration and/or powerful spurts of energy that make you wonder what the horse had for breakfast!
Lastly, Mullins has been the most arrogant and \"in your face\" practitioner for the past couple of years. When he comes out firing and reaches 40% or more winners, he keeps throwing them at you almost daring you to find anything. Then when they start searching the barns, he falls to something akin to where he is at today (2 for 37 or something like that?).
Last year on SA Derby Day, however, when he was in another seach and fall slump, he lit up the board in almost every race he entered with horses (prior to Castledale) winning off by lengths and looking like Man o War in the process. His main client (Bob Bone) had the only winning ticket in a $1 million plus Pick Six at Del Mar last summer - where any inside knowlege of the condition and/or treatment of the Mullins horses in the last 2 races would have proved most beneficial! Maybe Mullins really means that the $2 bettors are idiots and addicts...and the ones who bet a lot more and have \"inside\" information are OK?
Lest you accuse me of looking for excuses, I will be the first to tell you that inside information on medication is out there for anyone to see - look at the horse, look at the stable, look at the trainer stats and you can figure most of it out yourself. Dale Romans hasn\'t had a winner at GP in a month - he was quoted in an interview 2 weeks ago when he brought down Roses in May for a workout at GP that his barn at Palm Meadows was sick...so he was keeping Roses at GP until Dubai. I stopped playing Romans\' horses until they win again.
The race track media out here will do anything to cash a bet. And with a couple of notable exceptions (Jeff Siegel and Bruno de Julio), the morning airwaves were full of excuses for Mullins...ranging from \'the reporter made him say that\' to \'Jeff is under a lot of pressure these days\'!
What happened to accountability and responsibility. Pointing the finger at someone else doesn\'t make you clean - but that\'s what he\'s doing...maybe Karl Rove is running his campaign?
In any event, with Magna\'s servers crashing during the heart of the Gulfstream card and SA and off-site betting facilities refusing to hire sufficient tellers, etc. for the record crowds - the $2 bettors won\'t need Mullins advice to stay away...seems that the very ones who put the sport on for public consumption are trumping even the medication controversy in the public\'s mind.
And for this I worked 35 years to retire and go to the races everyday???
Kev,
I was giving St. Liam close to 50% of the race and I made RHT second most likely among a group of very similar horses (no real edge for second best). Unless you had a strong reason to not like St Liam, it was tough to find value here. Since I thought it was St Liam\'s race to lose, I didn\'t bet. However, I thought RHT was pretty likely to improve.
>Fair enough. On 1/29, the horse you liked came second behind the favorite for a short exacta.<
Maybe this is sarcasm and I am just missing it, or maybe I am remembering incorrectly, BUT wasn\'t 1/29 the Sunshine Classic? The exacta was not \"short\" and it was not a \"favorite\" who won. The winner was 70-1. Fair enough that the ROTW did not select the 70-1 winner to use, but, if you backwheeled their value horses (to back up win wagers), you would have hit a nice exacta.
I think its an interesting time for making and winning wagers. Theres a lot going on. I\'ve cut back right now and am picking spots. Part because of whats going on with the drug issue, part because of unfamiliarity with surfaces. Part because I\'ve been a bit cold. Its careful time right now. Additionally, theres been few horses to really latch onto. DeClan\'s moon has provided a couple exotic chances. (The one with Giacomo). I got lucky strictly on an odds decision with Foggy. (Still didn\'t pay much...unfortunately I dismissed More Smoke other than pace). That Big Cap was there if you had the inside California information. Knowing Saturday, what I know today I might of cashed the Big Cap. I would have put them all in fourth. I thought a negative 1, perhaps even a zero could win that race and I did not sufficiently factor Mandella on his home track with his home vets. I just had a block about accepting 7-2 on RHT in that spot. In hindsight I think I\'d of dumped Supah (Easy to say he finished last) and swapped him for RHT. Mandella\'s vet is the Milkshake Vet. Does that bother anyone else?
CtC
In the ROTW it said. \" he showed alot of promise at early 3, but hasn\'t developed since\" I think he just did in that last race running a 0, I\'m sorry I though horses like that was horses that were ready to do some major running. Guess I will have to buy some TG sheets for this weekend and show people how it\'s done. hee hee. not knocking TG for the job that did in the ROTW.
I thought the RHT had almost no chance to develop at 3 and that\'s what some people were missing. He came out running and was immediately thrown to the wolves, where he was running quite well. IMHO, running 1s against the best 3yo horses in the country is a lot better than running 2s against limited allowance horses.
The Belmont is the most obvious throw out race you are ever going to find. It was 12F and he engaged a vastly superior horse in a duel in fast fractions.
The Monmouth race was also an obvious throwout. The performace was too dreadful to be taken seriously and they immediately stopped on him. So it\'s fairly obvious something was wrong.
He came back fine at 4. If people were looking for a huge new peak at 7F that\'s just silly. That was obviously just a prep (albiet a valuable one). His next race was better and this was obviously the main event.
IMO, based on his 3YO figures in the spring and status as a lightly raced horse that got interrupted last year, he was very likely to improve here.
That\'s different than saying he figured to improve enough to beat St. Liam if that one fired his best shot.