For years now, I have been reading the pedigree analysis of derby contenders and looking for horses to bet that have a \"classic\" pedigree. But if you look at the last 5 years or so, I don\'t think this is a valid angle anymore. There has been tallk on this board about \"horses getting faster\" and I have also read articles about the \"breed\" in North America changing,with more influence on \"speed\" and less true \"stamina\" influences in the breed. I think this is reflected in analyzing the Derby winners recently. The \"miler\" type pedigrees have been very successful, where as in the past, you would throw those horses out. I think breeding is now an \'over-rated\' angle in handicapping the derby. Here are the last few winners:
1. Smarty Jones - son of Elusize Quality with Smile on the dam side. Everything about this guy\'s pedigree said speed and not stamina. Supposed to be a brilliant miler, would up getting the classic distances easily.
2. Funny Cide - son of distored Humor, an excellent horse up to a mile. Funny Cide had some dam side stamina, but definitely did not come to the race with anything close to a \"classic\" pedigree.
3. War Emblem - another \"speed\" pedigree, this guy was a son of Our Emblem, and I remember reading many pedigree anaylysts saying 1 1/8 tops.
4. Monarchos - Probably the best bred of the last five winners. I don\'t remember the dam side, but he was a son of Maria\'s Mon and had a pretty low dosage from what I remember.
5. Fusaichi Pegasus - Nobody can deny he was regally bred, but Mr. Prospector is still a speed influence, more than a stamina influence. After the derby, his best race was the Jerome, which was a mile and many on this board feel his best races were at shorter distances.
You can go farther back and look at Real Quiet who had a dosage index of over 5.00 and also was supposedly suspect at 1 1/4 miles.
Even if you look at the second place finishers in two of the past three years, they were definitely \"distance challenged\" based on pedigree - Lion Heart and Proud Citizen.
Is it possible that a lot of the old axioms about distance horses winning the classics are not valid anymore? Just look for a fast horse, with a pedigree that at least says one mile. I am not saying we start betting sons of Carson City and Phone Trick, but milers that are precocious may be the right way to go.
You forgot Fupig was Danzig on the back side.
Those horses all had \"sneaky pedigrees\". I thought PuPig\'s was most questionable and lost the Derby over it. (I was gonna lose anyway) Smarty\'s was 2nd most questionable, regardless of what dosage said. However, he proved in the couple races prior he was serious. I thought he coasted in the Ark. Smarty was the favorite in the Derby, but the key was interpretation of the Ark.
Biomechanics people have said both Fupig and Smarty were unique specimens.
The others couldn\'t be questioned on breeding in my opinion.
A Quiet American with a full to Majestic Prince proximate on the female side, dosage of 5.0?...lol
Jimbo-- back when I was doing Post Time in 92-3, I made the point on one of the shows that very few then-recent Derby winners had fashionable pedigrees. If you start when we started making figures in 82 and go straight down the list you will see what I\'m talking about (L\'il E Tee?).
I have some comments to make about the prep race question, but I\'ll wait until others weigh in, and I have some time-- I just got back after a couple of days away.
I am going to handicapp the derby and races like that based on ability, and not based on some pedigree. Take a horse like lion heart, he clearly overcame what could be considered spotty distance pedigree to finish second. To much is made out of pedigree in todays breed, its just not as relevent as it used to be, especially on dirt.
CtC,
I have to disagree with you. War Emblem was questionable and so was Funny Cide. Our Emblem and Distorted Humor? I think that \"after the fact\", you can always go back and really research a pedigree and find some ties to stamina somewhere in the family tree and then call it a \"sneaky\" pedigree, but the reality is that the mainstream view on all those horses was that they were not \"classic pedigrees\".
As for Real Quiet, he absolutely did have a dosage of over 5.0, it was actually 5.30. I know because I made my biggest score in my life on him with a futures bet offshore at high odds. When I saw his Santa Anita derby where he was beat by about two lengths by a perfect trip Indian Charlie over a speed favoring track, I knew he could improve over a fair track at 1 1/4 in the Derby. I will never forget the huge smile on Desormeaux\'s face after the 2nd place finish at Santa Anita, as he knew his horse would improve. The exact quote was something like \"I will be happy to take my chances in 4 weeks with an extra 1/8 of a mile at Churchill\".
I remember being shocked to read before the Derby about his high dosage and it slightly discouraged me.
The punch line is that after the race, they recalculated the dosage of REal Quiet, because they made his sire a \"chef de race\" or something like that, which brought his new dosgae below 4.0.
That is the exact moment in time when I discounted dosage and I haven\'t looked hard at it since. Changing the rules after the race is over.........
Desormeaux may have known RQ had a chance, but I\'ll tell you for a fact that Baffert didn\'t. I had a drink with him the night of the Wood at the Soho Grand, and he was singing the praises of Indian Charlie. I told him his other horse had at least as good a shot, and he looked at me blankly. Unfortunately, I was right, though I did make a pretty good score on the race.
JB,
That is funny because I do remember Baffert being interviewed all week and he never talked about Real Quiet. He was officially \"non-committal\" as to which horse had the better chance to win, but he was saying things like \"I know which one I expect to have a real good chance, but I don\'t want to say\". But then he would go on and gush over Indian Charlie. I never met him like you did, but I could tell he liked Indian Charlie more. Two hours before the race, they interviewed either Baffert\'s assistant or groom on ESPN and asked him about the two horses. He said if he had to pick one he would go with Real Quiet. I don\'t know why, but it gave me some small boost of confidence.
I never remember screaming more in the stretch than during that race. I had a small 4 figure bet at 25-1. Best horse score for me ever. Unfortunately, I haven\'t come close in the Derby since then..........
Jimbo, first off, you do realize you\'re argueing over pedigrees I accepted and cashed winning Kentucky Derby bets upon don\'t you?
War Emblem:
http://www.pedigreequery.com/war+emblem2
Granting the Mr. Prospector part didn\'t make Our Emblem a distance horse, but look at his dam. That horse beat a Kentucky winner. (Twice) and retired undeafeated.
when you get to the link click on \"Sweetest Lady\" to expand her pedigree. Notice on dosage she is .71 with a .33 CD...lol
I\'m not saying Our Emblem was a distance horse, but that wasnt the issue, However he had a full brother named Miners Mark that won the Jockey Club Gold Cup.
http://www.pedigreequery.com/index.php?h=personal+ensign&g=5&query_type=progeny&search_bar=progeny&done=y&inbred=Standard&x2=n&username=&password=&x=0&y=0
Funny Cide:
http://www.pedigreequery.com/funny+cide
If you think Funny\'s Dosage and CD look impressive, Click on his Dam\'s \"Belle\'s Good Side\" and have a laugh. He won the Jockey Club Gold Cup last year...albeit 10 marks.
I\'m with you on dosage being Voodoo. They have no idea. The reason they have no idea are many fold. TGraph will say its cuz they dont factor the mare herself. You hit upon another, changing the sire lists (which has to be done, merely by attrition). My bone to pick with it is that they can\'t tell which horses are generally solid and professional (12 marks and beyond) because they dont race there anymore. No one knows, expect me..to some extent. :) Add to that mix that conformation and biomechanics can raise its face in a Smarty Jones or FuPig as well.
CtC
CtC,
I am aware that you listed both horses on your list of picks for the Derby. But to me there is a big difference between \"accepting\" a pedigree and making a bet driven by the pedigree. I find it very very hard to believe that your bets on Funny Cide and War Emblem were driven by pedigree. Both horses were fast and had big numbers before the Derby. Looking at their number power and \"accepting\" their less than classic pedigrees was a winning analysis, which is the point I am making. If you honestly researched both horses and were attracted to them by their pedigrees and not their \"figures\", then you were in the very, very, very small majority. If that is true, then you analyze pedigrees differently than all the experts.
Jimbo, thats not the order it goes in.
you can\'t be attracted to good pedigree. If you are you will waste millions of dollars in buying it and thousands of dollars in betting on it.
If you were high on pedigree, you\'d have purchased Seattle Dancer and Tribunal and Houston and Fusaichi Samurai and so many others I can\'t even begin to recall.
The way it works is First you establish ability and then you weigh its likely potential.
They all start the same, especially in this age.
I\'m at least happy to hear that Baffert had the same impression as I who his best horse was. Real Quiet was gettin to him in the prior though was my recollection.