R7 - six of these could win it, so value must be demanded. shorty knudtson, ml of 12-1, might offer some value. ran a nice \"9.75\" first out going one turn, then came back with a nice race against some decent horses. last was awful going 9f in the slop, but SK cuts back to one turn today and has nice timing coming in. key at long odds.
R8 - another one with a lot of contenders. tiger heart is 6-1 ml. expensive purchase ($150g, sire only $5g) started his career off nicely with two fast races. backed up a bit when stretching out (not sure these scatmandu\'s will go long), but ran a fast race last fall at kee when cutting back. the layoff is a concern, wouldn\'t shock me if he comes up just a bit short, but i will use if odds are 6-1 or higher. nakayama hun might also be a decent longshot here (10-1) ml. should get a good trip from post 7, sitting just off a decent pace. decent # power.
R9 - daydreaming. shug has been struggling lately with a $1.24 ROI over the last 90 days (meaning his mounts are only winning when they are obvious). i can\'t take the low odds here, but i think she could be something special. very nice races last two, and she should love the big turns here. hoping shug has another great one.
R10 - no bet here. three fastest will all take a lot of money. survivalist should improve, but again, shug\'s horses aren\'t offering a lot of value these days (bailey up won\'t help the odds). sun king is a very nice horse. not sure he want 10f, but this $400g purchase is fast. pletcher/jr have a nice one here. might get hung a bit wide, but the horse is fast. three to watch for future reference.
Good luck Michael,
I like your thinking regarding Shorty Knudson in the 7th. You might also want to consider Holy Rocket in the same race. He is 20/1 in the morning line and looks like the sort that could improve and is also likely to be on the rail and on the lead, which is almost always a plus. The distance is the big question.
Chris
thanks chris.... i used your horse, he ran well. kimmel has gone really bad lately. last 90 days: 9% winners, 1.19 ROI, and 41% X\'s. his rare gift also ran poorly in the aqu stks as the favorite.
Michael,
Maybe next time. I thought HR looked strong at the head of the lane but he just got outrun.
Chris