This week\'s race is Monday\'s General George, and our guest analyst will be SoCalman2. He has sent in a draft based on the probables, but since he is on Moscow time (seriously), he had to go to bed before the final field was drawn. We\'ll post his work tomorrow, it\'s good.
Very thorough analysis.
Taste of Paradise - Fires a good race from time to time, but is generally a notch or two below these.
Gators and Bears - Consistent runner that fits here very well. Major contender.
New York Hero - Hasn\'t done enough lately to merit support here.
Saratoga County - Just turned 4YO that blossomed nicely after showing some promise early in his career. Is suited to 7F and as a just turned 4yo could possibly make more progress this year (even if not today) instead of heading backwards. Major contender.
Unforgettable Max - Fits well at this level. Has done his best running when able to shake loose early - which won\'t happen here with Don Six in the race, but can be rated and still run well. Was used hard in the middle part of the Cigar trying to stay with a torrid internal fraction. That race can safely be tossed out. Has been away from the races for more than 2 months. Trainer has a decent record with this kind of layoff, but this is a stakes race and generally you have be wound up 100% to win a stakes unless you lay over the field. UM does not lay over this field and if he is wound up 100% IMO that could be a bad training move. Contender.
Don Six - showed a lot of ability early and has exploded forward for \"move up trainer\" Scott Lake. Lake\'s horses tend to hold togther even when they run big ones. Looks like the primary speed. The two most likely ways to beat him are that he\'s probably better at 6F than 7f and someone could always show more speed than expected and prevent him from shaking loose like he did in his last 2 spectacular performances. Other than that he looks best. Major Contender.
Booca Al Lupo - Last wasn\'t bad, but seems to be a notch or 2 below these at this time.
Houston\'s Prayer - Occasionally fires a big enough shot to get himself in the thick of this, but is a notch below the best.
Private Horde - Seems to do his best running on wet tracks. Would not shock. He\'s not far off these at all.
I think the logical 4 horses to focus on are Gators and Bears, Saratoga County, Don Six and Unforgettable Max.
If you put a gun to my head, I\'d probably say Don Six is the most likely winner because I believe it is more likely he will shake loose and get 7F in his current condition than has been the case in the past. However, those are vulnerabilities in what appear to be superior figures. So I don\'t think it would be wise to bet on him at a short price.
Gators and Bears and Saratoga County are very similar in probability of winning. I\'ll take the minority opinion and say I think Saratoga County is more likely to improve than G&B because he just turned 4. However, G&B has some excellent races against very good company. Call it a draw.
Unforgettable Max is probably the only one of the centenders that may get overlooked in the betting. Personally though, I do not like to back horses that I think aren\'t best just because they are a better price when I think there are potential flaws. I think UM does his best racing when loose and I\'d prefer that he was coming back to the races within 4-8 weeks and not over 2 months. I rank him below the other 3.
Any of the other horses could theoretically be an overlay at some price, but I generally won\'t go that deep into a field of horses looking for an overlay.
I suspect there won\'t be a big enough overlay in this race to merit a wager.
Post Edited (02-20-05 17:20)
If we just keep faith with the numbers and hope for rain, it\'s Private Horde. He is covered up in the form and could deliver a big price.
I buy in to the idea that there are certain horses which do their best running loose on the lead, and that their chances should be downgraded considerably in a race where that is unlikely, but I\'m not following how that applies to Max. He ran what was then a new life top coming from far back in a 7f race on 2/16, wasn\'t loose on the lead when he paired his new top on 4/17, & wasn\'t loose when he ran a new top/paired on 7/25. My take is that Max is pretty versatile.
I\'m also wondering what leads you to the conclusion that Don will likely shake loose. Is your conclusion based on the raw nos in his last two, or on the pace figures you(I think) posted in connection with another race? If the latter, any chance you could explain what they are for this race? Perhaps it was just me, but they were a little hard to follow the 1st time around.
\"Shake loose\" is a nice choice of words, all things considered.
Good job Socalman and good luck.
By the way, in Moscow, what is the post-time for the ROTW?
Chris
P.S. On Thursday, I will be only a few miles from Moscow...Moscow Idaho that is for the basketball game between Arizona and Washington State.
mall,
UM has 3 very good wins when he got loose and 1 win in a NW1 allowance race at 6F off the pace. If you believe that speed figures are gospel descriptions of performance, you won\'t agree with my conclusion that he runs better when he gets loose.
He also has some very good races from off the pace. That\'s why I didn\'t say he needs to be loose. I think it would help, but he could win without the lead.
Let\'s put it this way. If he\'s ding donging through the stretch with one of the other major contenders, I\'d rather have the other horse. If for some reason he shook loose of Don Six, I expect him to keep going and win.
I do not use pace figures to project who I think will be on the lead. I use them to evaluate performances. Horses are rated. They generally only run as fast early as they are required to run to get the position they want. Don Six has recorded some blistering early speed in the past at 6F and is extremely sharp right now. I don\'t see anyone that can run with him early without severely compromising their chances. (based on style and fractions)
That being said, there is always a chance someone will. So since he was loose last time, I would be reluctant to give him full credit for that performance because it is not 100% he will get loose again even though it might be likely. The pace figure itself for his last race was in line with the final time figure - which makes it quite fast.
Post Edited (02-20-05 17:44)
i have gnb and ds both at 5/2. if the morning line held up, i would be playing gnb at anything >= 7/2. although the outside three would get used very lightly in multi-race wagers, gnb would take the bulk of the play.
Funny, looking at variant adjusted pace figures leads me to believe that Max is the only horse who can stay with Don early, & he appears to be able to press a very fast early pace & still finish, while Don collapsed at the end of his last try at 7f. The race kind of reminds me of 12-1 Private Horde beating Lake\'s other unbeatable sprinter on a sloppy track at Sar 2 yrs ago. I also can\'t help but wonder if everyone is so focused on what Lake has done with Don that they\'re overlooking what Preciado has done with Max since he got the horse 3 starts ago. But the thing that really has me scratching my head is everyone saying that the race is not a good betting opportunity. I know it\'s Lake, but both of Don\'s big nos & his blistering fractions were earned on a fast inner dirt track, he wasn\'t able to handle the last sloppy track he raced on, this is probably not his best distance, & he\'s likely to go off around even money. Whoever you like, that sounds to me like the definition of a great betting opportunity.
Max looks like the second fastest speed to me too. He has pressed fast fractions, but at longer distances (slower paces), not the type Don Six is able to put up. The problem with being second speed is that they usually get torched badly by the primary speed if they hook up.
For example:
If one horse can run 21.4 44.3 while racing well within myself and another can run 22.1 45.1 while racing well within himself, if the duel goes in 21.4 44.4, the speedier horse will probably go on to run his usual figure. The other horse will tire badly.
Second speed is usually a bad position to be in. If you duel you get torched and if you sit, you often don\'t have the closing punch needed to get up. (unless of course you are versatile)
I see the same 7F vulnerability in Don Six that you do. I just think that if Max tries running with him, he\'s probably committing suicide even if he gets Don Six beat too. I don\'t see Max even trying to duel with Don Six. IMO, it would be very foolish. I see him letting Don get loose, staying close, and then coming after him mid turn. IMO, that\'s his best chance.
If Don Six goes off at even money, I\'m sure I\'ll find something to bet in there. :-)
Not sure I\'d agree with the \"usually get torched\" characterization, as the research I\'ve seen, & my personal experience, tends to suggest just the opposite. I understand using an example to make a point, but what I was suggesting when I referenced variant adjusted pace figures was that Max\'s in the longer races are not that much different than Don\'s in the shorter races, so I think it\'s possible that Max will be racing well within himself, in 2nd position, where he might get 1st jump & be able to take advantage of his superior ability to close the deal-at this distance. The problem is that gnb won\'t be that far behind, SC has a middle move which might put him in the mix at the critical stage of the race, PH moves up in the slop, etc. The more I look, the more I\'m thinking that maybe the way to play the race is to structure a series of bets based on Don finishing no better than 3rd, & hope he runs out. A very interesting race, no matter how it turns out.
Good Luck.
class,
barring scratches, i don\'t think don six will go off at even money. local hero dominguez on a local star, and saratoga county will take a lot of money. you probably have to beat don six at 2-1 or higher (5-2 or 3-1 maybe?), making the race pretty difficult.
I suspect Max is a horse that should already have more on his resume. What I see in Max is an underachiever and complete chaos in his past performances. None of which means its gonna be chaos Monday, but just where is this horse\'s forte?
Why does he have three trainers in his past performances?
He\'s a sprinter under Perkins.
Then Levine has no idea where he wants to place him and then...
His current trainer thinks he\'s a middle distance horse, until today.
Why all the confusion?
Last years General George was a nice looking race, but that was under Perkins and he ran Max from off pace. Then Levine decided he was gonna make him a pace contestor. His new trainer had him on the lead in routes but what makes anyone think he\'s gonna be on the bridle with these fast horses? His works?
Don\'t get me wrong. I like this horse. I think he\'s got some ability, should they finally figure out what they have. I\'m not so sure its a pace contesting 7 mark horse.
CtC
A few comments on the rotw:
1. Michael, no way Don Six goes off at 2-1 to 3-1 range as you suggest. Too fast and too much hype by Lake. 3-2 Tops.
2. Great job by So. Cal. Great reading, as are all the ROTW\'s. As a gambler, I believe in \"luck\" and streaks though, and Unforgettable Max is up against it as the \"pick\" in the ROTW. No winners in the rOTW since Saratoga, which is 6 months ago. Some nice \"seconds\" or \"thirds\", but six months with no winners. I will try to help that trend by being very against \"Unforgettable\" in this spot. That will put two streaks on the line, my bad streak against the ROTW bad streak.
3. Don\'t see how Max can win. He presses don six and he gets cooked, he lets him alone and he tries to run him down is not his best style. I like Max in two turn races where he is the controlling speed. I hate him in this spot, for what its worth (not much).
4. Willing to take a stand against Don Six if he goes off at 3-2 or less, not based on \"bounce\" but based on 7 furlongs. think he is best at 6 and worth trying to beat as the favorite. I like SoCal\'s case against Saratoga County also, so I will try the \"local\" horse in Gators n Bears. not sure he is really local, but he is 2 for 2 over the track i believe and as opposed to Don Six, I like him at 7 furlongs. I respect the \"number power\" of Don Six and also the fact that Lake moves his horses up (for whatever reason), but I like to bet against horses running huge figures while loose on the lead at tracks favoring speed like the Aqueduct inner track. Especially when they leave those tracks for more neutral surfaces, like i believe laurel to be. Any guys that know laurel well out there care to comment on the surface, it would be appreciated.
If Gators goes off at 3-1, I will give him a shot.
Good luck
Jim
Not a lot to go on as they\'ve been running on a brand new track for less than a mo., but rightly or wrongly, the info which is available played an important part in my thinking:
1.In the 34 7f races which have been run on a fast track, the avg field size was 8, 38% were won wire to wire, 59% of the winners were in the top 3 at the 1st call, avg beaten lengths at the 1st call was 3 & at the 2nd call was 2.8, S horses had a .42 impact value, & the 3 inside posts were at an advantage.
2. Everything the same for the two 7f races run on a wet track, except that one went wtw, & the winners of both were in the top 3 at the 1st call.
Many have pointed out that even when the sample size is large enough for statistical validity, these kinds of nos should be used sparingly if at all in stakes races, but for what it\'s worth, if you decide to ignore the warning, gnb, don, max, & sar(sometimes) are the ones that best fit the win profile. The pts made re max & the distance & 2 turns are well taken, but HP, the horse not the mia poster, who appears best at the distance, & PH, both figure to be coming from 5 or more back at both calls. Also, show me a horse w/o any questions in a race like this & I\'ll show you a horse which is going to go off at a lot lower odds than Max.
P.S. To the (unreal?) M.D.: Chris & I did make the show, but were both very much, if I can borrow one poster\'s handle, bit players.
Couple of quick comments --
1) The race goes off at 12:19 AM Tuesday in Moscow, Russia. People here think Moscow, Idaho is \"smeshno\" (that means funny)
2) Thank you to everybody for the kind comments.
3) On pace, we could see all sorts of things. TOP and GNB could surprise out of the gate. The gate speed in California is different than in the east, and Mandella\'s horse may be wondering where everybody went. GNB had a speedy recent work over the strip which indicates his connections may be thinking about what they need to do differently to crack this nut. I think UM has good speed but can also sit back if others are sent. I think the horses on the outside are weaker in terms of early speed than they appear. DS of course may well still clear (but hopefully at a cost). He has a confirmed frontrunner running style which is absent elsewhere in this race. His style has only been exaggerated since the change of barns. Also, Lake allegedly worked him 2 furlongs on Saturday, and Luzzi, while generally awful, was able to get this guy his best break out of the gate on the DRF PPs.
4) As to Saratoga County, I want to address something Classhandicapper said and make clear that my analyis of that Saratoga County in the ROTW only applies for the purposes of today. I think the horse has a healthy sheet and a bright future. I just think today is not a good day to be betting on him (unless the crowd lets him go off at a rich price I don\'t think they will). He is a young horse and, health permitting, will improve to the point he would be the legitimate favorite in this same race on another day (next year, maybe?). I just think if you look at him, he has spurts of improvement (two as a three year old) and periods of backing off. He seems to be coming to the end of an improvement spurt. I do not expect him to go too far back, and I definitely think he is going to be seeing good new tops later. As I mentioned, I could be wrong on my timing with him, but, if he is 3-1 and has to go around horses, I would rather take my chances. If I AM wrong about him today, then I hopefully will have a chance to get my money back when he gets even more over bet next time.
Post Edited (02-21-05 09:49)
I\'ve studied pace figures and pace matchups to death and believe me when I say being the inferior speed horse \"in a duel\" is a disasterous trip.
Now if the second speed is versatile enough to lay off the primary speed and still win - which I agree Max is - then primary speed/secondary speed issues are not as important. The second speed can sit off the leader and easily wait to challenge until later in the race.
Some of UM\'s route pace figures may be similar to Don Six\'s sprint pace figures, but by definition that makes the sprinter the quicker horse.
Just so we don\'t go off on a tangent. I\'m not bashing UM\'s chances in this race. He\'s one of the contenders and IMO only a little less likely than Don Six, G&B and Saratoga County (on a fast track).
I am just pointing out that 3 of his 4 lifetime wins came when he got a loose lead and Don Six is the faster horse assuming he remains as sharp as he was last time out. So I consider a duel to be a problem for him and a stalking effort to not be his best style.
I consider that a small negative for UM that I would require slightly higher odds to compensate me for.
Post Edited (02-21-05 10:49)
Mall,
Here\'s some of the pace figures I am using:
Don Six\'s last 2 outs:
120 P - 118 F 6F
103 P - 109 F 6F
He also has some extremely quick figures in back races where he tired badly before Lake got him.
UM:
Cigar: 99 P - 99 F (note: the pace figure here is measleading because it is the 4F call. The 1st quarter was slow but they cooked in the 2nd quarter. That was a much tougher pace than it looks) 1M
Tom Fool: 112P - 105F 7F
Note: Pace figures do not tell you how fast a horse ran in the early part of the race when you are comparing different distances.
They tell you how fast a horse ran in the early part of the race relative to the norm for that distance.
In addition, raw fractions can be very misleading when comparing different distances because of the length of straightaways in the early part of a race and other factors.
A 100 pace figure at 6 furlongs is actually running faster than a 100 at 8 furlongs.
The pace figures aren\'t attempting to determine who is faster. They are attempting to determine who ran the better race.
However, if a horse has faster pace figures at a shorter distance, he is also obviously by definition the faster horse early.
Class (and others with an opinion) -
You may have covered this in a prior post, and if so I apologize, but I\'m interested in the different running styles in one-turn v. two-turn races and how well horses switch between the two.
The need for horses to switch leads and tuck in shortly after the start when rounding the first turn obviously makes the pace demands of the two different types of races very different. Do you have a general view regarding the impact on one-turn speed horses of stretching out to two turns? Does it tend to negatively impact the pace they can withstand when they turn back to one turn, or do they benefit from added conditioning and/or learning to relax and close? I assume that your answer may vary if the horse has been away for a while and is therefore prone to be \"fresh.\"
Regarding the ROTW and Unforgettable Max specifically, I think I\'m right that all but one of his negative numbers has been earned around two turns. Do you think that reflects a special aptitude on his part, or is it a function of his getting better with age and coincidentally being stretched out at the same time.
BitPlayer
PS. Nice job SoCal. Ethel Mertz could never have done as well.
After much reflection...Saratoga County/Private Horde over Gators and Bears/Don Six $10 supers $40 could get you $40,000....If we learned anything from last week, Private Horde should run \"BIG\" even from the outside and on short rest.
Track is listed as fast at Laurel. We had rain for about 3 hours last night,but no big deal after a bit of a dry spell.
I enjoyed the ROTW Analysis. Well done and I can always learn from others perspective.
I like Unforgettable Max at 5-1 or better. I can see Don Six getting enough pace pressure from Taste of Paradise (SCal speed, going 7f, and running to pace of the O\'brien, where he dueled Pico Central in 43.4) and Private Horde, who has been close to the lead with fast fractions his last few.
Will Don Six clear these, and can he get 7 furlongs? Obviously how you answer this is how you will bet. I think Max #\'s are strong enough (improved to the -1 as a new top, then regressed to the 2 after coming back on three weeks rest, with tough internal fractions in the Cigar against Pico Central. Now back after little less then 3 months race, with a trainer that is good off a short layoff). The problem is he can improve off the -1, and still not be fast enough against this crew. I can envision him sitting off a pace that is more contested than some would think, and running strong through the lane. As always the odds/value will dictate the bet. I don\'t think Don Six and the risk/reward profile is worth the 6-5 or less that will probably be available.
I also think Max actually has the running style for an extended sprint (7F) horse. Cutting back from the mile race with some decent works (stong 58 2/5 B for Pha--although I prefer to see him working more then every 15 days) and the ability to be on near the lead. Plus he has been facing some strong competition--Ghostzapper, Midas Eyes, and Pico Central).
Speaking of the development of Saratoga County -- who I don\'t like (I don\'t think he is fast enough for this group, even off the breakthrough figure in his last), did you catch the reason for his improvement as told via the front page story of in DRF:
\"Things began to turn around last fall when George Weaver decided to change the colt\'s training methods. Instead of working him in company where he would lay on horses and get lazy in the stretch, Weaver put blinkers on Saratoga County and had the rider get after him. Five of his last workouts have been bullets\".
This made some sense to me; Weaver then added the brillant \"It seems to have helped, but I also think he\'s just doing better\"...
I\'m a civilian this week, so I get to discuss the ROTW like everybody else. But first, great job by SoCal, and the line about children getting slower is a classic.
My thoughts-- Don Six is the most likely winner (note that the DRF consensus does not have him 1-2-3, whatsupwithat?). The value in the race probably comes in playing exotics and throwing out Taste of Paradise (probably faster on Ragozin, given that he comes out of 1 turn Socal races), and Saratoga County, because of the two forward moves and the amount of development from the 3 as recently as last fall.
Other comments--
Gators N Bears-- #!%&#, chapter 10. Had this horse bought in September of his 3yo year, my client had his local trainer watch him work, trainer said the horse was unsound and woudn\'t stand training much longer. Twelve starts later, none of which is worse than 1 3/4, and 7 of which are negative, he joins a list that includes Xtra Heat (after her second lifetime start), Magic Weisner (for 100k, right before he won 6 straight and ran second in the Preakness), Glitter Woman (after her first start), and both Brass Hat and Josh\'s Madelyn for five figures each early last year.
But I don\'t see why he\'s not supposed to go back a couple of points today-- last time he hit the neg 3 he did, despite having 2 months, and now he\'s coming back much quicker. If he catches an off track on top of that, he becomes very shaky.
Unforgettable Max-- I think he\'ll run well, and I for one think his tactical speed is a plus. But he\'s only got one number that makes him strong here-- if he puts in somewhere around a zero or slightly better he figures to get a check, but is very unlikely to win-- you don\'t find too many stakes where NONE of the fast horses run a top, and too many have better tops or similar ones to him. Even if he does get back to his top, he\'s only maybe 25% to win. Value underneath, maybe.
Houston\'s Prayer-- How come nobody is talking about this one? His last 2 are as good as all UM\'s except one, he has nice time since his last, Iwinski has started getting numbers again, and you know Friedman is going to have Thornton stay inside. No reason this one can\'t get a check, definitely one I would use underneath.
Private Horde-- If there has ever been a better off track horse than this I don\'t remember it-- every off track number on his sheet is a top, and we\'re not talking 8\'s and 10\'s here. Yes, the pair of crazy numbers with short rest could cause a bounce, and he drew outside. But he\'s really fast, and 12-1 morning line. And if it\'s an off track, he\'s the play.
If it\'s a fast track (and as I write this it is), it\'s Don Six over the other four in tris and supers.
Dear BitPlayer
Thank you for the compliment.
In response to your comment, I definitely look at the difference between two turn and one turn races. However, I think UM can handle one turn pretty well (as well as handle the turn back if it were one).
He ran a \'2.5\' as a two year old in a sprint. That is pretty good one turn capability (on a par to his later two turn -1.5 top when you factor in age and experience). He has had three major jump up tops in his career, and two of the three were in one turn sprints.
As to turn backs from two turns to one, he is not really turning back today as his last race was one turn. However, he turned back very nicely from the Queens County into the 2004 Gen George (1.5 point new top and first negative #).
Having said all that, I, of course, would have liked it better if he had ran better in his last three one turn races, but he did either have excuses or was vulnerable to a bounce in those three instances so it is difficult to draw too much in either direction from those.
TGJB,
>I think he\'ll run well, and I for one think his tactical speed is a plus.>
I think tactical speed is a huge plus also, but I don\'t like it when a horse generally only wins when he gets loose on weaker competition and tends to have trouble through the stretch the rest of the time.
That\'s more of the kind of horse I like to use in the belly of an exacta because if faced with a strong challenge through the stretch they tend to lose more often than their figures would indicate.
bit,
I think when front running sprinters run a few routes it tends to dull their speed a bit. The longer they route the duller they will get when they try to turn back.
I also think there are horses that run much better when they can control the pace on the front end. You will occasionally find tiring sprinters that can wire routes when they get loose in the slower paces.
Other than that, I don\'t have much of an insight. I think you are probably better off studying a trainer\'s success with various moves like that.
Post Edited (02-21-05 15:04)
TGJB,
>Houston\'s Prayer-- How come nobody is talking about this one? His last 2 are as good as all UM\'s except one, <
He\'s not that far off the better horses on speed, but he\'s been earning those figures against weaker. IMHO, you have to discount them slightly. I\'ll take the horse earning his figures against stiffer competition vs. the one earning them against weaker competition all day long. That doesn\'t mean he can\'t be a good value here. I just rarely go this deep into a field looking for a win bet.
That was just like Post Time. Jerry came out and gave you the play.
I don\'t think Don Six is gonna run another Neg. 4 at seven marks, but then I don\'t think a neg. 4 will be necessary to win. I don\'t think Gators and Private Horde are gonna run negative 3\'s either. I\'m guessing if a horse can run a negative two here that will probably be good enough.
I was gonna do a quick analysis, but its all been said. I won\'t leave Saratoga County out because he appears to be on a forge to my eye. His sour period last year involved the Triple Crown Trail and recovery from it. I think hes got a good chance at 3rd or 4th and a lesser chance for better.
Its a tough race. Theres only 3 horses I don\'t like. It boils down to selecting a winner to me and I\'m not gettin any special insight. I\'m probably between Don Six and Saratoga County.
CtC
Private Horde is gonna be a very tempting price. If its really good I may put him atop, but I\'m highly skeptical of him being positioned to toss one more. I also think he likes TP.
Value here is Bucca Al Lupo @ 20:1. Hood on 2 back, then perhaps adjustments made (1/2 cup, full cup??) and he tosses the 0. Lightly raced, wins @ 33%, gets 5 lbs., good stalking style, loves track only no works since last start, but understandable since only 15 days ago. Will be using him top and bottom in ex; 1st and 2nd in tris with Gators, Saratoga, and Don.
MAX looks like a MHL type and now way here sprinting.
Well, the price is gonna be right. He\'s gonna be a lot more than 20-1.
he needs to improve two lengths in the next furlong off his last which is his best ever. He can pick one of those lengths up vs. Don Six on weight.
If you like UM, you are getting the price you want.
Reasonable result. Don Six stole away to a big lead in a fast pace but found the 7F a tad out of his range. Saratoga County got the good stalking position and moved forward enough to get the job done. Gators ran his usual race. UM didn\'t use his tactical speed to get position, wound up wide and couldn\'t close enough. Maybe he wasn\'t 100% off the layoff. Had Don Six rated a little more instead of opening up that much, he might have been able to win. Anyone that tried to run with him early today would have been off the board.
Post Edited (02-21-05 17:12)
9/5 jimbo ..... i passed on the race. i have not been watching lrl all that much, but isn\'t 1:23.4 a bit slow? they came home in :13.2. a serious grade 1 or grade 2 7f horse would have inhaled that crew in the stretch.
Post Edited (02-21-05 17:47)
They came home pretty slow, but Don Six set a fast pace. I commented earlier that had he rated a little better he probably would have won. After examining the fractions a little more closely, I am fairly certain he was best and would have won with a better ride.
Saratoga County and Don Six were 4 clear at the 1/8 pole and just hung on. So the rest of the field was getting to them.
These are clearly not Grade I horses though.
class,
i wouldn\'t sell DS short going 6f against the best. that aqu race was awful fast. he is quick enough to make his own pace, and does have lake in his corner. he just got a bit tired at the end today.
Yea you are right. Maybe at 6F he can run with the big boys.
Clearly not Grade 1 horses? Hold on.
Seeing as CAJUN BEAT won the 2003 Breeder\'s Cup with a -2.5, and MIDAS EYES won the 2004 Forego
with a - 3.75, and OUR NEW RECRUIT won the $2 million NAD Sprint in Dubai last year with a 1, I\'d say four
of the nine horses who competed in the G2 General George are capable of running well at the G1 level:
- DON SIX came off a -2 and -4 [and may become SHAKE YOU DOWN]
- PRIVATE HORDE came off two -3\'s [but clearly needs his Turfway vet to run at that level]
- GATOR\'S N BEARS has run two -3\'s and five minus numbers in a row.
- SARATOGA COUNTY [who won because of the four pounds he gave the winner and/or
because his trip didn\'t take him 5-wide on the turn like last time]
In any case, we\'ll see.
JohnTChance
The track was very slow. That was racehorse time. I think they are Grade I animals.
Even Problematic Max was only beaten 2 lengths. \"Its a shame they are wasting this horse.\"
SoCal2d - I think Jerry\'s number is gonna stand you\'re General George Race Analysis/Selection in very good light.
Post Edited (02-21-05 20:29)
SoCal and Class -
Thanks for your thoughts. The question about turn-backs wasn\'t concerned with Max today (even if the Cigar were two-turns, I think the freshening would have offset its effects), but was a general one that crops up from time to time. Max brought it to mind because he was going from two turns to one turn when I lost money on him in the Forego last year. In any event, it was interesting to read how you guys approach the issue.
Michael,
I was surprised to see 9-5. The \"late money\" went to GatorsNBears, which made my bet miserable. At 5-1, I liked my bet, but at 5-2 he was an underlay. Unfortunately, I bet with about 6/7 minutes to post because I have been having computer problems and didn\'t want to get shut out. Oh well. Next time.
The ROTW jinx continues. The \"key\" was going against Saratoga County and of course he winds up the winner......
Interesting that nobody on this board liked Saratoga County, and nobody I taked to liked him, but he went off pretty short. 5-2.
Michael,
I made the same 6-minutes-to-post bet on GNB. But I outdid you, because I confidently told a friend watching with me that Saratoga Country was a \"sucker bet.\"
Mike
jimbo,
i was going to take a shot with GnB, but as you say, the odds drifted too low. dominguez didn\'t get the best of trips. the guy is one of the best in my opinion, but he got boxed in around the turn then got caught behind another horse at the eighth pole. the horse had to much to do in the final sixteenth.... i hadn\'t noticed how badly SC drifted out at the end. those were tired horses. i hope a few of these guys come back for the grade 1 7f race at aqu in april, will make for an extremely interesting betting race.
Post Edited (02-22-05 11:29)
I do not view running a fast race with a loose lead against non-graded sprinters to be equivalent to running a fast race with a highly competitive pace against other Grade 1 horses. Yes Don Six ran a fast enough race to be compared to grade 1 horses. IMO, he just didn\'t run a good enough race yet. (key word yet).
Post Edited (02-22-05 16:26)
>Interesting that nobody on this board liked Saratoga County, and nobody I taked to liked him, but he went off pretty short. 5-2.<
That\'s not true. I made him co-second choice and only slightly less probable than Don Six. I thought he had a decent chance to improve further. Which of course is exactly the way they bet it and that\'s why I passed.
>The \"late money\" went to GatorsNBears, which made my bet miserable. At 5-1, I liked my bet, but at 5-2 he was an underlay. <
During the early betting I was also focusing on G&B at that price. To be honest, I really wanted to bet the winner because I thought he had beaten a pretty good field at GP and suspected that he was both faster than given credit for and more likely to move forward than anyone else in the race. The latter view was the complete opposite of the consensus view.
At the price though, IMO he was an underlay. I think the public bet the race approximately right.
CH,
No offense, but re-read your analysis of the race. You called the first three betting choices \"major contender\" and the 4th betting choice a \"contender\". The favorite you called the most likely winner and the co-second choices at 5-2, you called tied for second most likely winner.
In other words, you had no opinion on the race. Tough to redboard when your comments are on the board. You didn\'t specifically \"like\" Saratoga County. You called him a \"draw\" GnB as second most likely winner, but did add that if a gun was held to your head, you would take the minority opinion (on this board) and say SC was more likely to improve.
I have seen you take stands on this board before with picks and commentary, but this race certainly doesn\'t count as one of those.
SoCal took a stab and missed.
Others in this thread also took stabs and missed. I didn\'t see anybody pick the winner.
Next time,
Jim
My above comment assumes nobody held a gun to your head before the race. :)
Great post on the General George.
DON SIX a grade 1 horse???
Let\'s fast forward to the second or third Saturday in August at Saratoga for the 6f Alfred G. Vanderbilt. Let\'s pit DON SIX (Dairy Queen supplements not available in the Saratoga area) versus CAJUN BEAT and SPEIGHTSTOWN. We\'ll throw in CLOCK STOPPER, VOODOO, and MIDAS EYES to make it
interesting.
Let\'s look at the odds board:
SPEIGHTSTOWN 3/2
CAJUN BEAT 5/2
MIDAS EYES 3/1
CLOCK STOPPER 9/2
DON SIX 7/1
VOODOO 15/1
I would bet VOODOO at SARATOGA before I bet DON SIX.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
To my knowledge Spreightstown is retired. Maybe Pico Central can run in his place.
Everything with Don Six must be measured pre and post Lake. Don Six is a big factor at 6 marks and might get 7. He sure did this last time.
CtC--
I agree with your Lake assessment. Not sure DON SIX can get his added nutrients at Saratoga or a Bc site. No nutrients=off the board in Gr 1 race.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
I am not redboarding at all.
My odds line was very clear.
I was hoping to get a bet on Saratoga County.
I thought going in that Don Six would be too short a price off his 6F figure and vulnerability at 7F.
I knew going in I wasn\'t going to bet UM even though the price might look tempting because I thought his style was deficient for this specific race and I didn\'t want a horse that needed a peak performance in a stakes race off more than a 2 month layoff.
That left Saratoga County and G&B as the only potential bets based on my view of what the odds would be (which I didn\'t discuss). They were approximately even and IMO not far off Don Six at 7F.
Given that the consensus view was that SC was slower and likely to regress, I was hoping that would make him bettable for me. I did not share that consensus view. I have different views on fluctuations of figures. I believe I can account for many of them on a trip basis and many of the rest are no different than why I bowl 150 one game, 175 the next game, 200 the next game and then back to 165.
I am very big on getting the general direction of the horse\'s form right and the general probability of him improving or going backwards.
I didn\'t pick him to win for sure.
Not taking credit for picking him. I am taking credit for not thinking he was the big underlay to key against.
For the record, Don Six set a very fast pace. It doesn\'t matter who actually won. IMO, Don Six was clearly best even though he will come back with a slower figure than several other horses. Had he rated loose on the lead just a little bit better, he would have won by a clear margin.
Post Edited (02-23-05 14:30)
jbelfior said
\"I agree with your Lake assessment. Not sure DON SIX can get his added nutrients at Saratoga or a Bc site. No nutrients=off the board in Gr 1 race.\"
Don\'t bet on it. Shake You Down grabbed a 3rd place placing in the Santa BC. Lake\'s speedballs tend to hold together.
gvido--
Good point.....just remembered THUNDERELLO, also.
Not sure DON SIX is as good as either one, however his #\'s lately would indicate otherwise. He may end up proving me wrong, which would not be the first or last time.
Still find this all amazing as to what\'s been going on, especially at the tracks in the Mid-Atlantic area. Perhaps they should have brought DON SIX in to answer questions after Barry Bonds. \"DON\" may have been more eloquent.
So \"DON,\" have you been cheating?
DON: \"Cheating, define cheating to me.\"
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Good Luck,
Joe B.