What it is about jockeys that look to go five wide when all they have to do is slide into the rail and then get lucky to find a hole? You can\'t give away those kind of lengths unless your horse is vastly superior to the others. I don\'t understand some of these guys. Its a shame Shane Sellers retired, he was one of the few with the guts to go inside. Still can\'t believe Haskin ripped him on the Florida Derby ride. Always go the short route.
You are so right, about this. I try to tell people how much it hurts their horse\'s odds of winning by going wide, and alot people just don\'t get it. That\'s why speed holds up so much, they get first crack and save all the ground.
Some horses supposedly do their best running when they are outside other horses. They are shy about going between or inside.
Some trainers don\'t want their big long striding horses to get stopped by traffic problems on the inside because they can\'t regain their momentum quickly.
Some jocks are dumb. Others are scared.
Of course if you are losing tons of ground during the fast part of a race you are often in a suicidal position.
Post Edited (02-13-05 10:32)
Let\'s not forget the obvious - smart jocks with larceny on their minds go wide all the time.
I agree with you. Aqueduct inner is a prime example. If your not winning wire to wire, your staying close to the rail and pop out down the strech or down the rail if its open. You never see the sweeping move win, unless---- it was the feature race this past Saturday.
Speaking of Wide, look at how Sort it Out vs NNyer ran before they closed to go 1-2 in the race. Sort it out was inside early while NNyer was allways off the rail as I remember this. I have to look at the replay again to confirm this but chrts have it this way.
Naughty and Scrappy both were wide. Grocer faced a pretty serious pace challenge for his first back. I thought the top four all ran great.
Dont take too much from Naughty New
Yorker\'s last 2 races-- he has shown much
camera shyness. He should have gone by
Scrappy T two back and looked like he
was going by Sort it Out Saturday.
Scrappy may have run the best race Sat
while never really having a chance to win.
He was digging in very gamely at the end
despite having been deprived of the lead he
likes to have. He can be a good 3YO if
kept off the Triple Crown trail.
Who is W. Robert Bailes, Scrappy\'s
trainer? I dont think he has been off the
board in 15 or so Inner Tube starts. Any
relation to Mert Bailes, the old Maryland
trainer?
Speaking of trainers, Dominic Schettino
thinks GG will move forward off his
Whirlaway effort. As i have stated, this
was an awful selection for a first
back; he could have gone in an open N1X
at 6f. Whirlaway is not graded, so the
earnings are not important. To me GG
another one not going to impact the
Triple Crown races
At spring Belmont/ Saratoga, Schettino
was training winners at a 25- 30% clip.
Since about October, he has been ice cold,
including a 1/ 30 or so slate on the
inner. Right now, if Schettino had trained
Lassie, Timmy wouldn\'t have survived the
first episode.
I\'m probably going to get several lashes for this, but I think being wide is actually overrated even though from a purely speed figure point of view its importance is irrefutable.
From my perspective speed figures are partly a function of the pace and not just the ability of the horses.
I see race results and final times as a combination of how much pre stretch energy a horse uses, his position at the top of the stretch (or thereabouts) and the total amount of energy he had available to begin with.
If a horse is wide into very fast fractions, that's much worse than the ground loss indicates because he\'s either using himself extremely hard to keep/improve position or he\'s losing position.
If a horse is wide into slow fractions, if he's holding his position without strain, the ground loss is probably not hurting his ability to finish as well as he would have anyway.
Here's an extreme example.
Suppose I race 1 mile against someone I am slightly faster than. Let's say he walks 3/4 of a mile and I walk 7/8 of a mile (I'm wide but keeping up with him due to a slightly faster walk) and then we sprint home. I'm going to beat him even though I raced for an extra 1/8 of a mile.
Do I deserve a speed figure that incorporates 1/8 mile of ground loss?
Of course this is an extreme example that is not comparable to the typical horse race.
However, I think there are real life racing examples of what I am saying.
Dueling wide on the first turn in a route is massively more negative than just the ground loss. I see that all the time.
Looping the field at Belmont after a bunch of speedsters kill each other off in a duel is a routine trip for a closer if the middle of the race is slow.
Trying to make up ground on the turn after the pace was very slow early and the action is picking up is almost an impossible task.
Post Edited (02-15-05 10:19)
I may also get killed for this but all you need to understand about how much ground loss affects a race outcome is by watching any typical Harness Race. Usually the one first over on the outside is suicide, cutting the wind in effect drafting for the horses behind them, unless, as you say the pace is slow enough you can rate and last for the sprint down the lane. Most winners stay on the rail and either find room outside later.
I agree that pace as well as final time must be considered. That\'s why when folks originally look at 5 horse field races and say the final time (FIG) was slow, its because the Jockey decided to make it a tactical race instead of an honest pace (ie last race of Sweet Catomine).But ground loss is always critical no matter what the pace is, in that the further outside from the rail you are the more distance of ground you have to cover. That science is indisputable. (Geometry). What makes the TG product so good at least at the tracks I bet at is that their chart callers seem to get the distance of ground loss pretty accurate.
Do you want to talk about Track variant to further Exacerbate this discussion? I do wish TG also had a product for both a Pace Fig and Final FIG, I think that product would greatly help the hadicapper read into the race better among the given participants.
>unless, as you say the pace is slow enough you can rate and last for the sprint down the lane. <
This was my point.
It\'s a 100% mathematical certainty that all else being equal the horse that was wide ran further and therefore ran faster for the specified distance.
However, what I am saying is that race development also impacts time.
Depending on your style and the pace you may not get the position or run at a pace that maximizes your speed figure.
Under certain pace scenarios you may get perfect position without much effort even though you were wide and thus record a faster final time than if you were on the rail in a bad pace scenario that left you out of position.
Horses are usually not 100% exhausted at the end of the race. So just because a horse ran an extra length or two by being wide, it does not automatically mean he won\'t finish just as fast during that last quarter of a mile. If this is even partially true, then position and how hard you use yourself to get it is sometimes more important than losing a few lengths because you were wide.
Post Edited (02-15-05 10:20)
Tony,
The Geometry you cite is correct, however in the real world of racing you will often find at Belmont Park that there is a distinct advantage to being wide.Wide runners are sometimes awarded better figs than say a rail runner who actually performed MUCH better.Wider isn\'t necessarily faster despite the math.
Do you know what gets me more than jockeys going wide for no reason? Jockeys leaving the rail open for no reason!
Side note: the outside on GP\'s new turf course seems to be absolute death. I hit a $48 winner today using this fact, you can completely ignore those races when the horse drew the 10 hole or out, and probably even a little more inside than that.
Post Edited (02-14-05 16:30)
think scipion would have won on saturday if he was buried down inside? tough call. i watched the replay three times today. stevens was brilliant. unfettered, full momentum run the entire way. he only lost a bit of ground on the first turn, and managed to stay about 3w on average around the second turn (i think) before swinging out in the stretch, thus avoiding too much ground loss.
richiebee wrote:
Right now, if Schettino had trained
> Lassie, Timmy wouldn\'t have survived the
> first episode.
lmao
CtC
I don\'t play GP, but thanks for the insight. It might come in handy when some of those horses ship to NY. THere\'s nothing better than an \"out of town\" trip. :-)
Scipion\'s acceleration and cornering
ability on the tight FG turns--
very impressive.
P. Biancone deserves a shot in the
big races, but how many Derby winners
lost at River Downs as a two year old?
> P. Biancone deserves a shot in the
> big races, but how many Derby winners
> lost at River Downs as a two year old?
Yeah, but who would of thought a derby winner would have lost at Santa Fe in the New Mexico futurity as a 2yo either.
xichibanx
Looking at DRF online:
Galloping Grocer headed for
Fountain of Youth. What is
the strike rate of horses
shipping South from NY at
this time of year, especially
to face tougher competition?
Offers to buy Sort it Out, who
is now being treated like Triple
Crown material? To me, he is an
improving young runner who is
relishing the inner tube, and
could seriously regress racing away
from the Inner.
xichibanx wrote:
> Yeah, but who would of thought a derby winner would have lost
> at Santa Fe in the New Mexico futurity as a 2yo either.
Wish I could remember which horse you are talking about xichi.
Richie, Its pretty clear to me that you are very up on the trends in the derby. The thing that is good about trends is being on the non trend side of them when they don\'t hold up.
I cashed on Strike the Gold when it was said he couldnt win on dosage.
I cashed on Lil E. Tee when it was said a Pennsylvannia bred couldn\'t win it.
I cashed on Funny Cide when it was said a N.Y. bred gelding couldn\'t win it.
I agree there can be valid reasons for trends, but I believe that \"A good horse can come from anywhere.\"
I appreciate your insight that inner track Big A horses haven\'t faired real well in the Derby. If it already hasn\'t been overcome, it will be one day. From my perspective, I\'ve rarely witnessed an inner track big A race with Triple Crown Potential like this year. I\'ll grant its still somewhat unlikely. Also I think Galloping Grocers race was not all bad and though he lost some ranking, I\'m not gonna rule him out without seeing one more.
But as far as Scipion goes, hes obviously not a River Downs horse. I doubt you\'ll see many 1900K purchase price horses running there. His first start was at Saratoga and he won. They obviously didn\'t ship him to River Downs to steal a graded stakes race. The Risen Star is evidence enough of that for me. They are picking their spots.
I thought those two races Saturday were excellent, though I doubt Scipion is gonna get a great number. The potential I see is in the internal fractions.
CtC
I assume (but we know what happens when you do that -- ask Felix Unger) Xichibanx was referring to Real Quiet. This is the horse they gave Victory Gallop\'s trophy to according to this board\'s proprietor recently. Also, apropos the discussion elsewhere on this board currently regarding wide rides, I think they gave Victory Gallop\'s trophy to Real Quiet because Victory Gallop did not manage to make it to the finish line in time due to a detour (ala Alex Solis). I think certain people have a strong opinion in that context as to whether or not a wide ride made a difference.
Speaking of wide trips, why hasn\'t anyone come up with a device-like a pedometer- for the equine? It could be attached to the saddle,and measure the actual distance traveled by each horse. Perhaps some wireless device that comes on at the start, and shuts off (electric eye) at the finish??
Rumor has it that there are far more sophisticated devices either in use or in development. Supposedly, in Hong Kong, they are going to have some sort of GPS system that is not only going to track exactly where each horse is every step of the way, but the GPS will also be able to time each horse every step of the way (so very accurate fractions and final times). This was rumored several years ago so maybe it is in place.
Fast Eddie,
I understand that Keenland did some experimental work in this area. It\'s just a matter of time before some new technology for ground loss, splits and final time will be all over the place.
miff wrote:
> Fast Eddie,
>
> I understand that Keenland did some experimental work in this
> area. It\'s just a matter of time before some new technology for
> ground loss, splits and final time will be all over the place.
>
Not sure how that bodes for TGraph. Will Beyer suddenly incorporate ground loss? I noticed Beyer gave Scipion a 89 for the Risen Star. Best 89 I\'ve ever seen.
SoCalMan2 was right Real Quiet...
xichibanx
>Will Beyer suddenly incorporate ground loss? <
There\'s a 0% chance of that. His view on ground loss is different than TG\'s.
He believes that ground loss is a component of performace that should viewed seperately from how fast the horse reached the finish line. It\'s part of \"trip\".
ctc,
1:44.5 over what looked like a pretty quick track. the filly ran four lengths faster, and zito\'s older horse went seven or eight lengths faster. make scipion\'s race fast, then you have to make the other two extremely fast. could be that summerly and wanderin boy did both run huge though. will be interesting to see how TG makes the race. scipion will get some credit on TG because he lost considerably more ground than wanderin boy, and a bit more ground than summerly. in my opinion, any way you look at it, the filly was the most impressive performer on the card.
I really think a Pace Fig would really help read into a race a lot better. Years ago there used to be a paper called Figs Form and I made a huge killing using that product. They went out of business but they had each Horse grapphed in once chart in terms of both pace and final figs (Historical). was quite an interesting concept back then.
none the less, Pace - final time fig and Grond loss all matter. ( Not to mention the trip issues such as lost momentum due to tiring horse etc)
Ctc:
Good points, and I have been beaten by
some non trendy horses, going
back to 1980 when I had a large bet on
Rumbo (Genuine Risk).
I went to the 1980 Derby with a college
friend whose father trained horses in
Kentucky. During the day, I was
introduced to one of Nelson Bunker
Hunt\'s daughters. I asked her if it
was difficult to buy presents for a
man of such great wealth.
Her answer \"Daddy just loves McDonalds
gift certificates.\"
Scipion was a 1.9 mil RNA, not a purchase,
not that this really matters.
Funny Cide was, I believe, foaled and conceived in KY. Yes, technically,
he is a NYB.
Michael, I hear ya.
That race was significantly slower than the two before it.
1:43:79
1:43:08
1:44:54
Doesn\'t appear the track was slowing, but I\'m not competent to draw conclusions there.
I don\'t think Scipion is going to score out with an eye opening TFig. But, I\'m not altogether sure that Summerly and Wandering Boy didn\'t just move to near the top of their class. Theres been plenty of fast late running horses that never get up as the distances increase and Scipion could be in that ballpark. I don\'t have any special insight right now, I\'m struggling to get a grip on this crop. But I do think that race was significant. He really has run well when hes been off the pace early and that can be a very effective Derby style, depending.
Pollard had been a very consistent 1 horse. Maybe his first as a four year old was a Zed with the wide. Give Wandering a Zed also and that might put Summerly in the 2 range. If shes a 2, then Scipion was roughly in the 3-4 range at 8.5 marks. I see lots of potential there. I\'m speculating of course.
Post Edited (02-15-05 13:21)
NoCar-- Holy smokes, a Figs Form reference.
They were a true (and as it turned out, significant) footnote to Racing history. Located less than a five minute walk from where I sit in Soho, the paper was the brainchild of Dr. Robert Sinn, a self-declared genius, and holder of several patents. His younger wife was Jersey trainer Pamela Sinn, who supposedly hired only great looking girls to work in her barn, girls she was supposed to be very fond of. I don\'t know about that, but I know she was a pretty good looking woman herself.
But I digress. In about 1990 or so, Robert Maxwell bought a share of the paper, and sent one of his trusted flunkies, a guy named George White (Mandown of this site), to work with Sinn, in the hopes of eventually taking on the DRF, then owned by Maxwell arch-rival Murdoch (this actually may have been George\'s idea to start with). At the time the DRF was refusing to give me the access to online data I needed to take TG from the old handwritten sheets to the high-tech product we have now, so when I found out what was going on I made it my business to look up this George White guy. Turned out he liked to hang out in bars, but needed a guide to show him downtown Manhattan, and a beautiful friendship was born. At our first meeting I told him I wanted to do a high end product with the sheet on one side and the ancillary data on the other, a concept that no-one else seemed to see the value of. George, who wasn\'t even American, got it in ten seconds flat.
But I digress again. Anyway, one thing led to another (as it often did with Maxwell), and it ended up with Maxwell owning Figs Form, and Sinn screaming (and suing, if memory serves), to no avail. The thing that was really valuable there was the same thing I wanted access to-- the past performance data base. And guess what-- that Figs Form data base became the Racing Times data base (George became president of the RT), and in turn became the Equibase data base when George did a deal with them to share the data and collection cost. And now that the DRF shut down their own data base to use Equibase\'s, it\'s the industry\'s only historical data base.
Which, of course, worked out pretty well for me. George was going to publish TG as a side product of the RT, but when Maxwell went swimming that idea and the RT went under with him. So George walked in to see Equibase with me, and since at that point he had a fair amount of credibility with them, we became the first company to do a deal to get electronic access to the data base.
And if we stay in business a couple more years, I\'ll make back most of the money I spent buying George beer.
Meanwhile, George might be willing to explain the laser system going across the street, and offer other comments about Figs Form.
Jerry:
...right out of the twilight zone; my uncle and I were talking about her the other day! Any time she had a horse in we would blitz to the paddock just to see the \"ponygirls\". Stone-cold knockouts!
TGJB,
Wow, I never really knew the history and the tie in you had with those guys and that product but at the time when I was using it at the Meadowlands most folks thought I was a nut even trying to decifer the graphs, but man would we hit some huge triples which I could attribute to the product and at least my interpertation of there data. I think they forced the DRF to begin to consider using figs such as the Beyers (but i could be wrong on that).
Anyway glad to oblige with a blast from the past. I think I still have one of the papers in my storage bin I might have to dig up someday.
Ever consider using one summary graph to plot all the entrants in a race in some type of summary of historical performance or projection?
That is a great story TGJB
As far as DRF using Beyer, the chronology was this-- George and Steve Crist (who don\'t get enough credit for bringing handicapping out of the dark ages, and I\'m not kidding about this) decided they wanted somebody\'s figures for the RT. I was pretty friendly with George, and Steve was using my sheets at the time (for free, I would add-- although to be fair about it he was also making his own figures). Three people had input into the decision as to whose figures would be used in the paper, the third being Scott Finley, now with Attheraces in England, I think. Scott and George wanted us, a reduced form of the figures with higher being better, and ground and weight taken out, so we could still sell the high-end side product. Steve wanted Andy, and as editor overrode the other two.
As everyone knows, putting those figures in a daily paper revolutionised the game. And it forced the DRF\'s hand-- when RT folded they bought up as many assets as possible, including the rights to Beyer-- if they didn\'t put him in the paper, they ran the risk of facing another startup.
Do you have any idea how much Beyer made when he got his numbers in the RT and then the form?
Are we talking millions, thousands, just curious.
Originally it was six figures, out of which he had to pay those doing the individual circuits. Don\'t know about now, but it should be a lot more, since without Andy the DRF is the program, for all practical purposes.
Excellent point. It really is the program without the Beyers.
Thanks for the info.
Not a bad gig.
A few months ago I was told that Beyer and the DRF were working on Pace Figures for the Form. I don\'t know the status of that project. I think it\'s extremely difficult to produce accurate pace figures for all races. There are some days when there are plently of races at similar distances. So it\'s not hard. However, there are others when it\'s a nightmare. I wouldn\'t want to publish wild \"arse\" guesses.
classhandicapper wrote:
> A few months ago I was told that Beyer and the DRF were working
> on Pace Figures for the Form. I don\'t know the status of that
> project. I think it\'s extremely difficult to produce accurate
> pace figures for all races. There are some days when there are
> plently of races at similar distances. So it\'s not hard.
> However, there are others when it\'s a nightmare. I wouldn\'t
> want to publish wild \"arse\" guesses.
People from the form have been saying that pace figures were coming for a couple of years. The last I heard about it was basically what you said, Beyer and others felt it was too inaccurate some days to produce. From what I heard the pace figs were going to be based on the beyers.
xichibanx
Hi Guys, Pamela Sinn aka Pamela Mannerstedt was my first love when we grew up together in Sacramento, CA. She left me to move to NYC to become a model (ie find a sugardaddy). She found Robert Sinn and broke my heart forever. All you say is true about her stables at Rosebud Farm. I just ran an internet search on her as I am trying to locate her and this post came up. Last I heard her and Robert were living in Malta. Anybody knows more, please let me know at:
elko@frontiernet.net
Steve Murphy
Elko, NV