There is no point in further arguing (for those of us who have been) about what the major factor(s) was/were that lead to War Emblem winning the Derby. It\'s over, he won. Some cashed tickets, some didn\'t.
I think a bigger concern now is what may happen in the Preakness. Obviously nobody can predict until the day of the race if there will any track bias, nor do we know exactly who will be opposing him this time around. My concern is that he may just go out to the lead again and the other riders may just take holds again, making sure they avoid getting their own horses involved in a suicide duel. They did it once, so what\'s to say that wouldn\'t do it again? Proud Citizen and Medaglia D\'Oro proved in the Derby that they are fully-capable of running strong races without using wire-to-wire tactics, so I wouldn\'t think those two would be gunning too fast early. Is it possible that War Emblem and Victor Espinoza steal the Preakness too? The level of competition certainly won\'t be quite as tough as in the Derby, right?
I think fastspeed made a great point about the human overreaction factor. Looks like there will be some pace in the Preakness. Given the speed favoring nature of Pimlico, I do not say this with a ton of confidence, but with 14 horses probable, I will most likely take a stand against WE. If the track comes up fair (and fast), and WE draws a post outside of Booklet, PC, and Md\'0, I will be eliminating the horse comletely.
Now I am reading about horses getting bumped because of earnings ????? I will put this on record now, if Sunday Break gets bumped, I will never again watch another triple crown race. Seriously, it\'s time to add a A-E list in these races.
I would agree that Booklet will PROBABLY be sent for the lead, as he is clearly one-dimensional at this point. But who knows? And what\'s to say that War Emblem won\'t get a cushy spot stalking Booklet, who appears overmatched to me? You don\'t believe he can pass Booklet? I would think he\'d make the lead by the time they turn for home. Whether he hangs on or not is a different argument.
I don\'t follow this comment. What are you talking about? What earrings?
Preakness field is limited to 14 starters. As of now, 16 are being considered. Two would be eliminated because of lack of earnings (although the formula is a bit different than the one Churchill uses). And of now, it looks like Sunday Break would sneak in, but you just never know.
Lots of talk about War Emblem in the Preakness. I say he doesn\'t need the lead as alluded to in my post about the Fair Grounds race in November. Furthermore he will be favored. Don\'t forget the human element and the timing of Seattle Slew\'s death.
MO
What about HH rebounding for a score in the Preakness ? (assuming his connections run),any comments ,opinions?
Interesting point Teekay. For some reason, I think the \"wise\" handicappers (who all tossed HH in the derby) will take a closer look at him in the Preakness. He closed well at Gulf and Kee, so the tight turns should\'t affect him all that much. Maybe a late run to fill out the exotics?
Thanks for you reply
Reference is often made to Pimlico\'s tight turns and yet, I read recently that both Pimlico and Churchill are 1 mile ovals with Churchill having a longer stretch than Pimlico by maybe a hundred feet or so. Wouldn\'t that suggest that Churchill has the tighter turns since the turn would have to be smaller in circumference?
It just means that the lenght from the quarter pole to the wire is longer .
Check that ,the lenght from the top of the stretch to the wire is longer .
Uhh, isn\'t churchill 1 mile and 1/8?
It\'s more than a suggestion JR. On the one hand, maybe that\'s why there have been only 3 wire to wire winners. On the other hand, Pim is notorious for juicing up the track on Preakness Day.
I saw 3 of SS\'s big wins & don\'t see the comparison with WE. However, even though the jury\'s still out, WE does remind me a little of Tiznow prior to his 1st Classic.
To throw in another factor re the Preakness, there are some very astute observers who claim that the key to learning something about how a horse may do is to carefully observe how the horse gallops out after the Derby. These individuals are saying that WE\'s gallop out was one of the best, if not the best, they have observed for many yrs.
Belmont is 1 and 1/2 miles ,yet it\'s stretch is actually shorter than Aqueduct\'s and it is a mile and 1/8 ,the distance of the stretch depends upon where the wire is in relation to the top of the stretch for instance in a 6F race you can run a shorter distance to the turn and a longer one out of it,where as in Belmont\'s you do the same but to a lesser degree, because of the sweeping turns
Good point..... any Pimlico experts out there care to clear this up? Reading through the trainer quotes since Saturday, I have already seen three trainers talk about the tight turns at Pimlico..... I kind of assumed they knew what they were talking about. You are correct though, the tracks with the longer stretches (ie. Sportsmans, Keeneland) tend to have the tighter turns.
Which, believe it or not, was their marketing slogan when I was a regular there. I don\'t know if attending 3-4 times a week for 2 yrs many yrs ago(71-73) & 23 straight Preakness weekends makes me an expert(particularly since I didn\'t even know why the track was called Old Hilltop until I read Seabiscuit), but my understanding has always been that the 1st turn is the problem, and that the reason is that most or all of the jockeys with speed horses are vying for inside position on a trk that is often very conducive to inside speed, especially in 1 1/16 races. I have seen dramatic changes in the trk condition between Fri & Sat on many occasions & one peculiar thing which has always stuck with me is that the trk seems to favor closers when it is muddy or sloppy. Finally, a word to the wise if you plan on going. Don\'t wander into the surrounding neighborhood, particularly if you are wasted, because it is a little rough, as in the bartender I saw collect the cash in a lazy susan type device behind a bullet proof window.
Assuming that the general public, and the
press consider the the Derby as a \"fluke\"
War Emblem will be 9/2, and VALUE! He will
win, then pray for rain in the Belmont.
His victory was powerful, his ears pricked,
and was not asked for it all. There is something left in the tank!
Yeah ,when Baffert talks to the media he talks all about his job being to win the Derby ,but I gotta believe he wants it all ,the Triple Crown more than anything .He has to be smarting being denied 3 times ,especially getting beat that nose by VG.That has to hurt
I am taking a stand against WE. He got the easiest of trips in the Derby against the worst field in years. There are new shooters in the Preakness who are better than many of the horses that ran in the Derby.
International Sportsman
What makes you think his trip in the Preakness will be any tougher, or that any other \"non derby\" entrant is better than what ran at Churchill? MO
Does anyone else find War Emblem\'s 3yo line a little weird? 8, 10, 1, 1 and a negative? Does anyone know of another 3yo with a TG sheet even close to this pattern?
I just can\'t see 8 or so top jockeys just sitting there. I have seen some of the Derby skippers who are running in the Preakness and they look pretty fast.
I agree,where is the bottom ?How long can this continue?I think he will be a short price in the Preakness and I have to believe that only 2 weeks rest has got to hurt ,the horse had 6 weeks in between the Ill Derby and that monster effort in Ky. ,when this horse hits the wall it should be a beaut.It seems that BB horses peak early then have nothing for later in the year ,I guess he\'s under alot of pressure to race.
teekay:
Baffy only got the horse after the IL Derby, so he can\'t be blamed if WE peaked already.
How can you say that the field for the Preakness is tougher competition for War Emblem than that in the Derby? There are several Preakness \"contenders\" that probably would have trouble winning ungraded stakes, let alone being formidable in a Triple Crown heat.
I agree that the pace scenario will (probably) be different with horses like Booklet in the race. But it seems to me like Booklet is simply a pace horse and NO threat to win.
I may try to beat War Emblem, but certainly not because I think the Derby field sucked whereas this field is strong. I think the Derby field was strong and about 15 of the 18 jockeys in the race rode assuming a fast pace whereas Espinoza and a couple others slipped em a mickey. It probably won\'t happen that way this time around, but there certainly seems to be several LESS serious contenders in the Preakness than there were in the Derby. You disagree?
The Preakness field is almost always
weaker than the Derby, but the smaller
field (on average) takes away the \"trip excuse\". War Emblem will win because he
can sit the trip. Amazing that this horse
fired big numbers WITHOUT a tongue tie, and
he is not rank anymore since the change to
a ring bit. Baffert IS a genius!