Smooth Bid - Suspect saving some position is important in this race and that he has enough speed to hold his spot. Its an energy equation, \"How much does he put out early to save wide late.\" 122 high weight is a factor in that. Wasn\'t very impressed with the Lecomte, but Kansas City Boy\'s \"Holy Bull\" has to be factored here. I think Smooth can be a \"positioning factor\", but I\'m skeptical about him finding a significant result.
Electric Light - Looked like a very mediocre horse to me until that last race. What is with Zito and this fondness for Oldsmar? I\'ve watched enough races to know that if a horse can ship in and do well in a Tampa Stakes, hes generally a horse with some ability. TCE\'s race there wasn\'t all bad and he finished full of run in his next start thereafter. Granted he was TCE. This horse doesn\'t have that resume, but it was a 14 horse field, he went 6 wide and DOMINATED them in fast time. Appears to have tactical speed to save position from that hole. I don\'t know why, but I\'m not gonna question this one\'s two turn ability.
Storm Surge - stalked a very slow pace in the Lecomte and was lucky to get up on it. Has to spot weight again. Anticipate a position saving run to the first turn.
Bold Lion - In all likelihood is also going to show some speed into first turn. Like the way he\'s working. Acid Test.
Iced Out - Off pace animal. Estimate he\'s been facing the best competition. Loves to go wide. Imagine, all your horses... running on the rail. You may say that I\'m a dreamer.
Silent Bid - Lukas with the new medicine? Getting weight off. Beat Papi Chullo and Chekov. Has speed, will use it..lol Last race, impressich.
Buzzard\'s Bay - The milkshake boy. How did this horse ship into Golden Gate off those past performances and get bet down like that and then run to it? Working lights out since the blinkers addition.
Scipion - Depending on the track, off pace might not be all bad this race, but looks the part of a slow developer to me.
Real Dandy - For what its worth, Asmussen said this is his best \"La Derby\" horse. I don\'t know what that means. This race is the same distance. I like the fact he almost caught the gasping Biloxi Palace and he handled Chekov, whom I suspect is gonna be a factor down the road. Stalking style may not be all bad here.
Harlington - The Candy everybody wants. Weight off, dry track, great breeding, wide hasn\'t hurt him. Send it in.
Rush Bay - This one is interesting isn\'t he?
A lovely afternoon at the races.
CtC
Your dismissal of Storm Surge after seeing Closing Argument come back to win, plus race over track is a little bit short sighted.
NC Tony
What kind of Odds you think you are going to get on the Wise Guy Horse? 8/5?
NC Tony
I\'m hoping they knock him down to that. If he wins this from there, I\'ll just eat my hat and say great race.
Storm Surge is an interesting horse. He\'s got a spot to run from and its only 8.5 marks. I\'m not looking at TGraph, if you like Stormy\'s figures there, I won\'t argue otherwise. He\'s obviously the most accomplished. I think others are faster and others will be running better late. He might find the niche though.
From my Derby Trail group on Yahoo..
http://sports.groups.yahoo.com/group/DerbyTrail/
RISEN STAR LURES BEST FIELD EVER
The Risen Star has lured an especially competitive field for an 8.5f test that serves as a prep for next month\'s Gr. II Louisiana Derby. The race itself has only been a graded event for the past few years,
and with its increase in prestige, and potential for graded stakes earnings, has lured better and better fields. Saturday\'s group of 11 features 5 locals, 4 CA-based runners and 2 colts in from Florida. All but three have experience in stakes of some kind.
The Fair Grounds is a notoriously difficult \"ship in\" oval, though recent Risen Star and LA Derby winners Badge of Silver (2003) and Wimbledon (2004) made successful visits to New Orleans from FL and
CA respectively. But Louisiana-based Gradepoint (2004 Risen Star) and Repent (2002 Star and LA Derby) are more typical victors in the annually-featured sophomore stakes at the charming plant on Gentilly
Boulevard.
REMEMBERING RISEN STAR
The race honors the mercurial Risen Star, 11/8-2-1 ($2,029,845) in two years of racing for one-time Fair Grounds owners Ronnie Lamarque and Louie Roussel III, who also trained the son of Secretariat. Risen Star, bred by Arthur Hancock III, was tabbed for Roussel at Ocala\'s 2 year old in training sale by Jimmy Nichols, the retired jockey with a knack for juveniles, who had piloted the likes of Susan\'s Girl and Graustark during his long riding career.
A wide trip under Eddie Delahoussaye cost Roussel\'s colt in the Derby where he finished a fast closing third to Winning Colors and Forty Niner. But in the Preakness, Risen Star recorded the fastest
winning time since his sire\'s record-breaker 15 years earlier, and at the same time became the first son of the great champion to win an American Classic event. A 15 length Belmont romp three weeks
later left little doubt as to the identity of 1988\'s top sophomore.
Risen Star was injured in that Test of the Champion and had to be retired, but still received the year\'s Eclipse as top three year old colt. He was on his way to a solid second career as a sire, but died
prematurely at 13 in 1998. Among his top get were millionaire Star Standard and European Champion filly Risen Raven. The Louisiana Derby Trial, which Risen Star won before the LA Derby, was renamed in the colts honor.
Trainer Roussel, who last year tried to re-acquire Fair Grounds, made headlines during Risen Star\'s campaign by donating 10% of the colts\' winnings to the proverbial Little Sisters of the Poor. The contributions from the devout Roussel were in gratitude to the Roman Catholic church after his recovery from a bout with throat cancer.
The 33rd Running of the Risen Star (Gr. III), 8.5f, $150,000 (5:22pm EST)
1.) SMOOTH BID (Asmussen/B. Hernandez) 122/10-1: Rubiano roan colt shows steady improvement for powerhouse barn that culminated in solid Lecomte second to Storm Surge here four weeks back. Trip around circuit a big plus, as is return to irons by good young pilot that steered him to RP mile stake win last November. Can save ground stalking inside, but believe MD-bred a tad slow for best of this bunch.
2.) ELECTRIC LIGHT (Zito/L. Melancon) 119/12-1: Live Oak\'s 2nd Derby hope (along with High Fly) exits nice 7f Pasco score at Tampa to make graded, route debut today for Nick. Company wasn\'t what opened eyes on the Gold Coast; it was 6w move from 10 hole on notoriously sandy oval that impressed. Surface here very similar to TBD, so don\'t expect usual ship-in problems for son of Silver Ghost and Nijinsky mare. Can go or stalk under pilot that knows N\'orleans, and distance suits. Provides exotic value.
3.) STORM SURGE (Stewart/Albarado) 122/5-1: Overbrook Storm Cat colt sports pair of local stakes wins since export from Churchill, and recent Lecomte score was just what Dallas was looking for. Needed
two weeks after that effort to return to work though, and is facing a lot more than 4 others here today. Another that appears able to go early or wait a while. ML third choice says local gentry uninspired, and we\'re siding with them as a bet against.
4.) BOLD LION (Broussard/Campbell) 114/20-1: Nice IL-bred gets thrown to the wolves off three sprints, but horses like this have long habit of making superfectas in the Big Easy. Morning efforts more than respectable, and stretchout angle from Broussard has produced a $30 horse. Last race Beyer better than half of this field. For deep tickets.
5.) ICED OUT (O\'Neill/T. Baze) 114/8-1: First of the Cali contingent, CA-bred colt\'s sire won this race ahead of his LA Derby triumph in \'98. Off the pace runner closed into speed favoring San Rafael last, nearly catching Spanish Chestnut. Same tactics just missed in Cal Breeders Challenge to good Uncle Denny before that. Price is right at 8-1 and shows steady gains, but worried that first trip out of state and tiring surface will make things difficult for him. Underneath again?
6.) SILENT BID (Lukas/Smith) 114/10-1: Grand Slam son makes third start off the break D. Wayne on heels of maiden breaker in 6th try. Beat Papi Chullo in that one (today\'s distance), and Chullo impressed last week chasing DWL\'s Going Wild in the Sham. Zipped 4f (:47.4) just 8 days later, and added two more sparklers since prepping for this. Is a \"tank\" according to HOF conditioner, and it could be he\'s one of those that will keep improving with added work. Dam is daughter of hearty English juvenile champ St. Jovite. Leaning towards inclusion despite all the speed that\'s signed on.
7.) BUZZARDS BAY (Mullins/Guidry) 122/10-1: Third of the four CA entrants that will start shoulder to shoulder. Marco Bay chestnut was dead game on the lead in GG Derby win over just two others as Guidry doled out his speed while battling every step of the way. Field\'s top figure (97) is no accident as addition of blinkers was the likely missing link. Showed in Calder diploma grabber that he doesn\'t have to be up front, and that may give pilot options in heat that looks pressure-packed. Worked like the real thing off San Fran score, and like his chances to win right back.
8.) SCIPION (Biancone/Stevens) 114/12-1: Mrs. Payson bought this one back at Saratoga in \'03, and now may be the time he really begins to show what he\'s got. Cross out the Breeders Futurity fiasco when he
had no chance as #10 in a 10 horse field at KEE, and you\'ll see that he won from way back at first asking and has only been behind good ones otherwise. Figures are on the upswing, and we love sophomores who are faster in their seasonal debut than they were at any point in their juvenile campaign. Stevens worked him 7 and 5f prepping for today, gets in light, has top Tomy and 12-1 seals the deal.
9.) REAL DANDY (Asmussen/Meche) 114/10-1: Shares experience crown with Storm Surge, 8 starts each, coming into this, with 2/1-1-0 Fair Grounds mark and 3/2-0-0 tab at trip. Stalker should get a bon voyage if not hung out from vantage which gives N.O. pilot Meche good view of scene. Figs are competitive, and a forward move could mean board hit at fair number. Out of money only when wide, and other beats have come at the hands of well-regarded Biloxi Palace and Copy My Notes. Tough to leave out of gimmicks.
10.) HARLINGTON (Pletcher/Velasquez) 114/3-1: The one everyone can\'t wait to see got near worst of draw with this launch spot, but may yet impact in stakes and fast surface debut for Eclipse-winning J-T
team. Son of champions Unbridled and Serena\'s Song was super professional in GP ALW soph bow and juvy maiden wins circling fields; experience that will come in handy today if Johnny V. takes back. Long FG stretch (1300+\") gives plenty of time for late charge, and it should surprise no one if he passes them all late. Hard to commit at 3-1 in great field when Pletcher has ultimate eyes on Louisville prize.
11.) RUSH BAY (Amoss/Razo) 114/9-2: ML second choice DID get worst of the pillbox landing widest for first try of the year. Amoss too smart to have Razo use this Derby-ticketed bay son of Cozzene hard today when much bigger targets lay ahead. Like neighbor to his left, KY JC (Gr. II) runner up could be just that good when they straighten for home. We\'ll go out on a limb here and say that this is more likely your LA Derby winner.
SELECTIONS
1. Buzzards Bay
2. Harlington
3. Scipion
4. Electric Light
5. Storm Surge
Thanks for a very pleasant post and the historical look at Risen Star himself. I for one will visit your Yahoo group.
Thanks again!
GV..
Thanks! Had a very good day with Scipion/Real Dandy at FG and Sort It Out-Whirlaway tri at the Big A.. Have been writing on the Derby Trail for three years, and the patterns start to jump out at you..
KaSept, It would have Stunned ME if Harlington picked them up late from that hole. I did misjudge the pace. I did not anticipate Electric Light and Silent Bid winging it like that.
Scipion howoever, looked to be a very weak bet without a major jump up and jump up and pace was what he got.
You said he was a good bet at 12-1. He was went off 10-1. I know Nicolas didn\'t quibble with Faberage over these kind of things, but there were higher odds horses that figured more prominently. My point is if you want credit for your writing, you might want to consider being a little more defined. Theres no need to tip everyone off two days in advance. Just toss in a post with a minute or two to go before they are off.
Lets discuss Scipions next start and his likelihood of repeating. A selection of Scipion was a major league projection. So, lets project.
Chuckles_the_Clown2 wrote:
Theres no need to tip everyone off two days in advance. Just toss in a post with a minute or two to go before they are off. Lets discuss Scipions next start and his likelihood of repeating. A selection of Scipion was a major league projection. So, lets project.
CtC..
Appreciate the input.. (And in terms of reacting to the board, I was stunned when I checked the tote and Real Dandy was 35-1 and floating... Especially at FG where they know and have liked him.)
Scipion is a tough read. I don\'t think he\'s going to get big figs for this effort which could bode well. I thought if you threw out the Breeders\' Futurity fiasco, where he had no chance, he was developing quite nicely.
The horses he\'s finished behind in his two show efforts are credible animals, and the fact that Stevens had been working him meant something. I think it\'s a VERY good sign that he shipped from Cali and ran so well. FG is a bizarre oval, and it could be that his slow start was a reaction to the deep surface; certainly nothing like what he runs on at home in Arcadia.
I\'d also say that it\'s impressive to see an A.P. Indy pull this off in February, but my enthusiasm is tempered by recalling that Gradepoint won this same event last year.. Finally, Biancone is a wild card with this horse, because he runs a bit like the turf horses the Froggy built his reputation on.. As opposed to the Lion Hearts, Why Why Why\'s, etc., that he\'s had, I think he may be able to improve this one. (In contrast to what he seems to do to young frontenders..)
What\'s your take??
Its hard to say Scipion figured on any numbers that I\'m looking at and I Red Boarded Tgraph and they had him questionable as well. He was far back and picked up a lot of tired horses. However, if he was gonna win thats how you would project him winning.
This one appears sound and I\'m certain he has perfect pasterns. When I challenged you to project, I was going to say that the race kind of fell into his lap and then I extrapolated the closing fractions. He rallied from dead last and undoubtedly caught some tired horses, but he appears to have tossed a significant late fraction once he straightened out. So significant that it\'s difficult to accept. If he stays at the Fair Grounds I think he could have problems in the next one. After that, I wouldn\'t want to say.
If I were a futures bettor. I\'d get down now.
CtC
All I needed was that Rat Storm Surge to hold second for a Major exacta/tri score. He didn\'t really setle early, although he did after the first turn finally settle a bit. I thought he had it mid stretch and he tired. I guess he\'s (SS) is very questionable going longer. Scipion closed from out of the clouds, and I thought was very impressive. That one is now on my short list at his time.
Nice post btw.
Albarado gave Stormy a very good ride. Sounds like you had Scipion on top too. Why didn\'t anyone tell me?....lol
tony,
you referred to ctc\'s analysis as \"short sighted\" because he did not like storm surge. tony, storm surge came in third as the third choice, no money there. now you come back, AFTER THE RACE, and say you liked scipion. are you kidding me?
I doubt scipion really improved his figure all that much, sure ground loss might help it, but he ran slow.
I don\'t have any preconceived notions of where this is leading, but just as a academic excercise lets see where it goes.
Fairgrounds February 12, 2005
3yoMSW-----21.58, 45.20, 57.52, 1:10.64
4^NW2L------22.24, 45.82, 57.74, 1:10.29
3YOMSW----22.26, 46.11, 58.53, 1:05.29
3YOf150K---23.77, 47.56, 1:12.60, 1:37.22, 1:43.79
4^100K-----23.29, 46.22, 1:10.94, 1:36.35, 1:43.08
3YO150K---23.50, 46.75, 1:11.61, 1:37.82, 1:44.54
I think a fast track is indicated. Those first two sure look to be fast track times, so maybe a 1:43 wasn\'t the greatest accomplishment. Its interesting to note that \"Summerly\" came home in an extrapolated 26:28. I think that was good considering.
\"Wandering Boy\" came home in 26.92, which also isn\'t horrible considering.
Lastly \"Scipion\" came home in roughly 22:68. I\'m not factoring the wide on the turn. Assuming that fraction is in the ballpark he would of inhaled the fillies within another sixteenth and the older horses within another eighth.
Obviously, extrapolating on a sixteenth isn\'t extremely precise and closers are always at risk for being impeded, but I think this horse just threw down the gauntlet. You dont always have to run the Derby up front.
My math may be off, I\'ll go over his more carefully before the next race.
CtC
Post Edited (02-13-05 15:43)
Give me a break , I covered my Win bet on SS with Scipion/SS exacta box and Ran down SS/Scipion/ All Scipion/SS/all in the tri\'s. I needed SS 1st or 2nd. I spread a little to make a big score since I was winning pretty much throughout the day. I saw that a closer like Scipion might benefit on the early speed which is why I covered with him.
Can\'t a guy hope to make the big score? Do you have to lock in on Friday and stay that way to impress you?
BTW I picked up on Scipion using TG on Friday Evening which i didn\'t have earlier on Friday since I was in the office at the time.
At this point in Time I\'ve got Sweet Catomine in the Derby Futures for what it\'s worth
Mike you like confrontation don\'t you?
could be, but i didn\'t refer to another\'s handicapping as \"short sighted\", now did i?
if i ever do that before a race, i would want to post something pretty good, and if i turned out to be wrong, i would then call my own handicapping \"short sighted\".
Michael,
Whatever- all I was saying at the time was to not sell Storm Surge Short cause he seemed to be all over Harlington. Yes My own handicapping on that race was \'Short Sighted\' but I got a run for my money. Ya feel better now? Guess i was smart enough to leave out Harlington from the 10 post figuring he\'d go off at 8/5 or lower for the same reason you did and at least played the race with favorable odds.
For what it\'s worth my short sighted handicapping had 3 rolling pic three\'s and a $2 pick four at gulfstream on Sat. You can look up the prices yourself.
ok tony, you got the last word.
sweet catomine has an interesting pedigree. by storm cat, out of a kris s mare. she runs like she wants to go long. her second dam, however, hails from the raise a native lines, and has a dosage of 31.0. SC finished well in her BC win, but came home very slow in her last. we can forgive that, i\'m sure she wasn\'t in top shape, but i will be watching closely to see how she finishes in her next two starts.
I put some $ down on her in the derby futre figuring that there truly isn\'t a Standout yet defined by this male crop.I loved her BC race plus her prior race before the BC was outstanding as well. The race race was just a 5 horse feild and typically the pace in those type races are slower, more of a jackey\'s race. It remains to be seen what Lost in the Fog and Rockport Harbor do, and if Harlington can get better off this last race. I have my doubts on RH one going the distance and with his running style he could get burnt up before the Derby(plus he already has health issues). Lost in the Fog is intruiging at this point. I have to look at his breeding some more, although Liftin says his Tomlinsons are very good at 10F.
I guess the biger issue now with her is her trainer is now a \"Suspect Shaker\".
I looked at \'Sweet in the futures, but she may not even be the best filly in training. Would love to know why Sis City was dropped into a 50K claimer last summer; is turning into one of the all-time great claims!
Sis City is also by a suspect Step up trainer as well. Yes it was a phonomenal claim for the price. Her last race was awsome against weak competition. Didn\'t Sis City run in the BC Juv Fillies?
i like joe torre. it\'s good to see him win two graded stakes races with a $50g claimer. i just hope can can win the world series now with his $150 mio plus payroll (what\'s it at now, close to $200 mio?)
Michael,
I think its over $210 Million now closer to $235.
Tony
PS is there a way I can email you off-line?
no problem...... the TG crew has my email.
Scipion looked like a very questionable horse to me and I reviewed TGraph \"The Morning After\". There were 3 horses in that field and 4 horses and 5 horses and 6 horses and better odds horses and quick horses and horses with better posts. I just didn\'t see 10-1 as being an exceptional edge all things considered. If he\'d gone off at 25-1, I might have considered his breeding and projected or hoped for second start 2yo-3yo improvement. I looked hard at him. I just didn\'t see it. Did I misread the Red Board?....I swore it was something like 15, 9, 7, 9
I had Real Dandy and Silent Bid on top. In hindsight it kind of looks like Silent was a bad bet, but I was looking for a speed pop and my theory is Lukas is cheating again. I really didn\'t anticipate Zito\'s horse gunning like that. I don\'t usually spread on horses keyed atop like that but I was convinced Harlington was a bet against. Thats what you get when you don\'t focus...lol
I\'d sure be interested in someone explaining what they saw in Scipion to make them think the pattern was positive. If you want to see a positive pattern, go back and refer to your TFigs on Real Dandy.
I\'ll have to wait until later to explain what I saw in him as all my papers are at home. Most of my work was done friday night very late. Since I live 3 hours from the nearest simulcast place I also had to do some last minute figuring as well.
I personally used him in the exotics as there was value there, and was not hung up on the win bet on that one as I bet to win on Storm Surge, and used Scipion as a cover bet. I do like the trainer (high % in the money and win%). Also High % jockey.
Well, I\'m looking into it myself a little. Scrutiny of his p.p. interior fractions shows hes got some talent. Heres his first race:
Leaders at calls:
:23,:46:2,1:11:3,1:24:3
7th-2 1/2,8th-11,8th-2 3/4,1st-3/4
That breaks down to him running approx. 23:50,:48:60,1:12:15,1:24:60
Which results in approx. internal splits of
23:50
25:10
23:55
12:45
It looks like he\'s having trouble with turns to me, but when he straightens out I\'m getting the feeling this is a horse with a very big gas tank.
Ctc,
I just pulled the chart from FG and here is what I have Scipion at:
leaders time at eac call were 23.5 46.75 1.11.61, 1.37.82, 1.44.54
11th at q1 10.8 back
11th @ q2 9.8 back
10th @ q3 10.4 back
7th @ str 5.2 back
1st @ wire +1.25
What i don\'t know is if the Str = the one mile mark or not making the last two splits questionable but if lets say they were, here is the individual time for the horse 26.3, 48.55, 1.14.01, 1.39.02, 1.44.54
Splits would be 26.3,22.25,25.46,25.0 and 5.53 the last 1/16 ( which is flying). Like I said Im not sure of the last two since it only says STR and not sure if it was at the mile mark or not.
Anyway What I saw in him was a huge improvement in figs in Race 2 last year vs the first time out ( 7 point jump) and that he was losing 4 lbs over any other race he ran. Plus his MSPwt win was visually impressive at the SPA and they paid $1.8million.Usually you can expect imrpovement over the 2 yo top early on in a developing 3 yo so if his pattern held true he had a \"chance\" but at the time I was hoping more for second with SS winning.
Anyway that what I was thinking that day.
I hear you on the \"Stretch\" call, I\'m not certain its precisely at the mile mark. I use it as a rough tool. Whats important is that in extrapolating it out, you look at the entire field and then you can place whatever significance to it you choose.