#1 - cozy guy 12/1 ml
the trainer doesn\'t do so well shipping, which is a major concern, but i will take a stab at 12/1 ml. post 1 in the big field is a big plus. the favorites might run faster and still not get him in the stretch. ran very well last time in these type conditions (oct 16 SA - \"0\"). i can excuse the turf race, and the race on dec 8 was a three horse race, and i\'m not sure court got the most out of the horse. nice five week timing coming in. hoping for a run in the \"0\" range. i will use second of june as a saver. fast horse, will probably be in negative territory soon, but might need another race and odds will be low. midas eyes is the fastest. his 9f strub was a nice race, but the post is tough, might cost him the race like post 10 did in the strub. supah blitz is also fast, but again, post is a killer - pass. i might toss in limehouse, but it will be tough to take low odds from that post.
His \'0\' looks like a totally random number out of nowhere. TG pattern indicates an 80+% to run an off # or an \'X\'. GP has favored ES types in rtes, but there\'s plenty of it in here.
Good luck with your choice.
thanks for the reply.... it\'s an odds play. the horse is 12-1 ml, odds will drift higher. who do you like?
What a waste of 1mm bucks.
Last year I was a fan of 2nd of June, never thought he\'d return to the racing wars. \'05 debut was .75 off his best, almost 5 weeks rest. TG pattern suggests 55% chance to pair or a new top. He has enuff speed to get to the rail [hoping, lol] If he runs a \'0\' others will have to run beyond their best; 5/6-1 is a fair price. Midas has a weak pattern, will have a wide trip, but is much faster, don\'t see him off the board.
Good luck to all.
your play makes sense. SOJ is fast, and has to be used. he will take a ton of local money though, might be the favorite (sorry, no 6-1). midas eyes will be second or third choice. because of the big field, i will try and beat the favorites. good luck!!!
i like your dope, esp re the favs, although i estimated cozy\'s chances at closer to 25-1 than 12-1. zakocity & 2nd of june also seem live in the 20-1 range, but my thinking is that stockholder is the play at the 12-1 ml. for what it\'s worth, my recommendation to our man on the scene is to sink or swim with him, pah at ml 15-1 in the 6th, & marwood at ml 30-1 in the 9th. best of luck on what looks like a very wide open betting card.
mall,
got the #\'s and took a quick look at the 9th. i have to use moscow burning from the inside post, strong # power. i will use scrofa, pattern going in the right direction. last race \"5\" was nice, needs another point or two jump, but odds should be good. your marwood looks good, actually looks very good at 30-1 from post 2 in a big field. a \"3\" or so probably wins this, so she might need a point or so of improvement, but looks as though they have been pointing towards this, we might get it. good luck!!
Post Edited (01-29-05 11:50)
Its a good race. I can\'t say I\'m enamored with Stockholder from a value perspective at 12-1. He laid off longer than SOJ and was beaten rather handily last in a slow \"come home\" time. Two more months off for value?....I don\'t think so. I suppose you have to weigh Commentator. I do know the horse that beat SOJ last put all the heat on him when they met. My suspicion is Stocks went mucho wrong back a ways and they are hoping to nurse him back.
I\'ll take SOJ heads up with this one. (Especially at 20-1, which he\'s better than and you won\'t see) Which is not to say yet I think SOJ is gonna win.
By the way Michael...if Cozy runs that Calfornia race he\'s gonna be a handful. I like the fact hes a better turf horse now than he has been, because i dont think he\'s a turf horse. I prefer he\'d of shown some ability outside Kalifornia, but they all have a knock against them and thats what makes this race interesting even if Midas Eyes wins it at 8-5...lol
CtC
Post Edited (01-29-05 13:05)
agree this race looks wide open. the favorite on my line is 6/1. about 90% of my play is on the pick four, so my main tickets in this race will have classic endeavor (6/1) and stockholder (8/1).
In the classic I ZAKOCITY, hoping for 1 more off that last race, well rested, likes GP and the distance, inside trip.
In the 9th I like MARWOOD, who is as fast as anyone in this race, is 30-1, has a trip over the track (short rest), trainer is hot, inside trip puts her there.
Zakocity is a game horse. Just be aware he doesn\'t know this GP strip. Its entirely new and he has to pick up some weight, but most in here are in that ballpark. The price is gonna be right.
With Stocks, you have to figure Day is gonna guide him to the rail and sacrifice some position to save ground. If he\'s dead fit that could be a good strategy, but I have to question his fitness and thats not how he likes to run. He came home like a elephant last. (Granted probably wrapped up.) He\'s got the speed to get right in it, but that looks like a tough row to hoe here.
Its a great race.
It\'s a minor miracle that Margolis has been able to get any top numbers for Marwood after leaving Hollendorfer [perhaps not a permanent move?] The extra 1/16th doesn\'t help a horse who lacks a strong closing kick. Moscow should win in a hand ride at a short price.
As for SOJ, several look better in their last in BRIS pp\'s than he. Perhaps he\'ll be shorter than I believe, we\'ll see soon enuff, lol.
btw the Magna 5 looks very chalky, unless Marwood can crash the party, lol
gvido wrote:
> It\'s a minor miracle that Margolis has been able to get any top
> numbers for Marwood after leaving Hollendorfer
Just began to look at this race. Apparently as long as Margolis trains at Gulfstream he\'s gonna do fine. I\'ve followed this trainer before somewhere pre Hollendorfer I Think. Guess he knows what he\'s doing. Maybe too well.
I like this one Mall. Very sneaky.
If you could add one horse to the Classic Field. What kinda horse would you add?...I\'d want a good closer. I\'d want a horse that had proven he could get close to the number and distance. I don\'t see that horse with certainty here and a couple other factors are gonna keep me from making a plunge, but the closest thing to it is Supah Blitz. Those ML odds aren\'t right though. He\'s gotta be longer than that on the post and poor last.
Post Edited (01-29-05 14:41)
ctc,
the ship is the main concern for cozy. i am going to need big odds, which i think i will get. where do you get 20-1 for SOJ? drop the \"0\" and you will be much closer (maybe right on, it is the home field horse).
SOJ is gonna be 6-1 at best, second or third choice. He has tactical speed and should be able to lay in behind those gunning. I think with him it boils down to whether he was pointed to the last one, how good you think the FOY was and whether he\'s truly ready to return to it. I think it was very good and I guess we\'ll see.
I\'ll definitly have Cozy in the mix...That Cal.Cup race was serious business.
Bear fan is a very good horse, if not as good as Emmie Bovary, but I think off the layoff 1-5 is taking a big risk. Mooji could wire her and Alix might get brave.
Well, nuther one morning line 2nd choice...but i\'m gettin killed on past the wire odds changes.
Post Edited (01-29-05 16:20)
$140.00 winner
I was impressed with whoever called Zakocity. he almost did it. (Fact is it was Rich, he had two nice bomb plays in second) The winner was a cosmic event.
I took a bath on that one. Every horse I played to run was out except Classic Endeavor.
Post Edited (01-29-05 17:55)
my horse was 10 lengths back rounding the first turn? ...... mall, nice call on marwood. i guess the winner did what she did last year: save ground, run in the \"5\" range, and take it all. hope you managed to cash ......
$92,000 super in the feature.
rich,
i hope you made some money on those two picks!!! with any luck whatsoever you would have been walking out with an armed guard.
Midas Eyes was a pretty bad 2-1 shot off more than a 2 month layoff, from the outside, at the route. But as hard as I tried to find a bet in there, there was no one I could come up with that made me confident. I passed the race. I am thankful for that because there isn\'t a snowball\'s chance in hell I would have cashed a ticket. If someone put a gun to my head I probably would have taken Second of June.
Post Edited (01-31-05 11:27)
I made SOJ a minor play. I was on almost every dirt race, but didn\'t sniff on the last one. Zakocity had recency. Had I made him the 2 lengths faster Tgraph did i would have played him and still lost.
You had to figure trouble for Midas with that post and projected pace positioning. I thought Midas would hook up lots of exotic money (he did) and marked this race for a play. Problem was the result with him out...lol
The odds on Tujours caught my eye...i just didnt see enough on 1st off layoffs or potential speed to seriously factor him. Never remotely projected a wire job either.
i feel a bit stupid not looking closer at zak. it was a good race to bet, as the four favs all had issues, and i did not like midas eyes at 2-1 from that post. not that it was a good bet anyway, but santos got checked hard nearing the first turn, and cozy wound up way back in tenth before they got around the first turn. the horse won the cal classic running right on a :46.1 pace?? (santos was also on marwood). well, live and learn. betting isolated tops requires generous odds, which i did not get.
Michael-- definitely agree about getting odds on horses with isolated tops.
Interesting note, though it\'s way too early to know what it means--
They announced testing at SA and GP recently, although it\'s hard to keep track of which races they are testing. Anyway, between Pletcher, Dutrow, Frankel, O\' Neill, Lake, and Mullins, they started 16 horses in the Millions. One win (Frankel bomb), one second, two thirds.
Mitchell won one, but he was the one who continued to win in California after they started testing.
I wonder if they froze the samples from the Paumonok at Aqu yesterday...
Good news on the sample freezing. Not sure how easy it is to collect urine as opposed to blood.
The new testing also entered my mind TGJB. After the Hals Hope I prematurely ruled out Frankel as a Shaker. Will have to watch closely now, though I\'d have taken a position against Midas in the circumstances regardless.
TGJB,
why did you guys go with stockholder? he had the same degree of isolated top as cozy (albeit a faster one). trainer stats said another \"2\" or worse was coming (not knocking the handicapping, mine was worse, just curious). BTW, a couple of tough beats at huge odds in your analysis. betting GP with these big fields is very tough.
I didn\'t do the analysis, but I ended up making a 4 horse box (running 2-3), and betting both Zackocity (small) and Stockholder (less small) to win. My thinking on SH was that if he ran his top he would probably win (not necessarily true of CG), and that second off a layoff, with a solid pattern at three, and Mott spotting him ambitiously (this was an obvious spot for CG, not for SH), there was a decent chance he would run his best. Also, in CG\'s case the secondary tops were further away from his top, and he did a whole lot more developing to get there, making it more likely the effort had hurt.
Problem with SH, of course, is that long layoff. The right time to play horses with soundness issues is usually when they are fresh (Da Hoss, etc.), but it didn\'t work this time.
thanks
Re Paumonok:
Why are people so surprised that a
horse would move up -- dramatically--
going from Frank Generazio to Scott
Lake?
Beyond that, bad handicappers (me)tried to
imagine a speed duel where there
was none. Simply, D6 was fastest in
the first 200 yards and that was
all it took Saturday.
I would say some Don 6 fans were
expecting 5.40, got 8.40.
Where can I get the results for
Volleypalooza, Frank Stronach\'s
newest way of infusing racing with
scantily clad women? Why doesn\'t
he just hire the Beulah twins?
(if he does due diligence, he will
find that they are not really twins
and they are probably not blonde).
Post Edited (01-30-05 23:21)
Michael
Not a dime.I had a 100 to bet I bet 40 win on both, had the rest in pk3\'s with the winner of the 8th, and a few dd\'s. Never considered the winners that beat me. I don\'t think I could have played any different for me. Sure I could play place or backwheel all in the ex, but that\'s not me.
Still excellent handicapping Rich. I will bet to place I need to have a \"vulnerable\" favorite, a horse with a big chance and 9-1 in the \"to win\" pool. Obviously, you cut your return down if the horse wins and all the money isn\'t on him, but on high odds horses vanity in my ability has stung me. I wish I had perfecta boxes for all the stone cold perfectas I lost in my life where the finishing order flipped. The Belmont last year for example. My theory is you have to respect the higher odds horse when you factor him. You have to give yourself a chance to cash if he is not quite up to them or is luckier than you thought he would be. Now if I could only remember that on \'superhorses\'...lol
Marwood paid 15 bucks to place. Zakocity almost 11-1 is what i recall.