I cant say I disagreed with anything you say in the piece.
The letter:
Rebates and milkshakes a poor combination
Over the last few years, racing has faced some problems. Not real ones, mind you - \"problems of perception,\" as some put it. Good thing, too - real problems require real solutions, while \"problems of perception\" require only solutions of perception. Now, shockingly, we find ourselves with a scandal - just the thing that industry leaders and racetrack operators wanted to avoid.
The main \"problem of perception\" involves drugs. Many horsemen and serious handicappers using speed figures have become convinced that certain trainers are regularly moving horses up in dramatic fashion, getting improvements way beyond those that can be obtained by good horsemanship. In fact, last year\'s DRF Expo featured a panel on the \"supertrainers.\" But we must all have been wrong, because other than a few token gestures concerning one drug (milkshakes), the industry has taken no steps to protect the betting public, and the honest horsemen.
So here it is, guys: a four-point plan that will dramatically help with this problem. It will cost a few bucks, but it\'s worth it.
1. Build a 24-hour detention barn at every track. Horsemen will scream initially, but they will get used to it. And you will eliminate raceday drugs such as milkshakes.
2. Freeze the samples of the winner and a random horse from each race at every track. From what I\'ve been told it\'s not that expensive, and it is a very powerful deterrent. The drug guys are ahead of the testers, but not ahead of where the testers will be in five years.
3. Make the trainer name with every entry a veterinarian of record who will be subject to penalties, and list him in the program, which will make it easier for all of us to track what\'s going on.
4. Make the trainer and vet fill out and sign off on a form with every entry, listing everything that has been put into the horse over the last seven days.
Unfortunately, the recent scandal has created an atmosphere of hysteria in which drugs have become linked with rebates, due in part to the unfortunate initial coverage in the Racing Form, which, in the first paragraph of the Jan. 16 article \"Glare on sport\'s dark corners,\" linked drugs and rebates equally as the two \"issues\" facing the industry. The Form continued to fuel the fire in subsequent articles, while not showing how racing\'s interests were adversely affected by rebate houses, pausing just long enough to let one particular rebater - Racing and Gaming Services - have two paragraphs for a lawyer\'s statement distancing itself from the scandal. Not surprisingly, that was the only major site not cut off by the New York Racing Association and others a couple of days later.
Look, if someone is doing something illegal, they have to be really dumb to bet through a rebater. This scandal has shown why: Account wagering companies require names and keep records, while you can go to any racetrack, simulcast site, or OTB in the land and bet in total anonymity. And other than the drug aspect, which really is important, the alleged crimes involved in the scandal are technical violations of far greater interest and consequence to the IRS and those who sell newspapers than to those of us in racing.
Full disclosure: My company has a business relationship with a rebate outfit, not one of the ones named in the indictment. But what racetracks need to do is cut out the middlemen and either lower the insanely high takeout or give rebates themselves. Failing that, anyone who thinks the enormous amount of handle generated because of rebates is simply going to be put through the windows at full price hasn\'t been paying attention. It will either go to non-parimutuel sites that offer rebates or disappear entirely.
Another \"problem of perception\" is that many of us believe that the pools are being tampered with after betting closes, and it\'s easy to solve, independent of rebates - simply close the betting before the first horse is loaded and transfer the data to another computer, which is then isolated.
But hey, if another scandal does explode, it will just be a problem of perception.
Jerry Brown, New York City
President, Thoro-Graph Inc.
Very powerful stuff
Can anyone elaborate upon the 24 hr detention barn? Is that a large \"RaceDay Card Barn\" where all starters have to be stalled a full day before a race, some distance from the trainers assigned stalls? Thats how I\'ve interpreted it. Yes, Its possible they would not even have to build a new barn or two. Just designate those close to the offices as the \"Race Day Dentention\" barns. All monitored with video of course.
They would need room for approximately 100 horses, so maybe they would have to build. I like this idea the best. A detention barn!
Post Edited (01-22-05 01:19)
Bravo
Great letter Jerry...KEEP UP THE PRESSURE
The race day barn was proposed at santa anita this meet but was met with such heavy resistance it was abondoned.
CTC-- that is the idea behind the detention barn. I would go for not only video surveillance, but ROTATING guards (not ones spinning in circles, different ones watching a trainer\'s horses each time).
SJU5-- I do what I can. But it is important that YOU GUYS keep the pressure on-- follow up letters to the Form saying you agree, letters to NYRA, etc. Best is a letter sent to both, and saying so in the text.
By the way, there was an unbelievable odds drop at GP yesterday-- Sir Swervalot was 5/2 on the board as he pulled up past the wire, and paid $6.00. No problem.
TGJB, do you really believe there is past posting going on? In \"The Sting\" they used past posting tricks to convince Robert Shaw they were wiseguys. But the potential for past posting in the computer and simulcast era seems significant to me. I do know of some interesting late odds changes. Funny Cide in the Derby took a significant drop upon payout for example. You\'re record of ascertaing issues and taking advant guard positions has to be considered by those contemplating the issue. A little care to prevent it certainly seems to be practical to me. How much money do you figure went down to change the odds a half point? Thats doesn\'t seem especially significant to me.
CtC
I don\'t know whether past posting is going on or not, and I don\'t know how much money it would take to cause the GP drop, although someone on the Deby List posted that 25k came in late (after)? With an antiquated system with hundreds of points of access, it seems pretty obvious that someone could hack in. People have hacked into NASA for the fun of it, and there ain\'t no money in that. There is here.
Great Job!
In harness racing they have detention barns where all stake races at least at Meadowlands are run out of including a rotating schedule of regular races. People ask me why I would rather look at Meadowlands Harness.
CH-- thanks. They buried me a little with placement, which I don\'t think was an accident, and didn\'t use my title (\"Problems Of Perception\"), but hopefully it will draw some attention.
Still waiting for an official result from Vegas...
TGJB,
i don\'t know all that much about the rebate shops, other than the one i use is legit, and some others out there treat US tax laws like nyc residents treat \"don\'t walk\" signs. the stuff about illegal substances was great though. if guys like pletcher, velazquez, castellano, stronach, frankel, juddmont, and mandella really are performing at the level of the all-time greats, and they are doing it within the rules, they deserve the credit. if smarty, GZ, and some of the other great horses are performing as well as some of the all-time greats, they deserve the credit. if any of these entities are not playing within the rules, however, they need to be exposed. the problem in the current environment, however, is that many of today\'s stars are guilty until proven innocent. every time something great happens in this sport, there is suspicion. we now have a sport without stars, and that is a recipe for disaster. TGJB, i think your proposals will help the honest guys as much as they will hurt the cheaters. well done.
The following is an excerpt from a piece written by Ed Bain on his time at the DRF Expo.
---------
We broke for lunch and during that time I had an interesting conversation with
one of the owners of United Tote regarding the really big bettors in racing that
were betting millions. He stated that there are only eight players or consortiums
betting on racing in the world and almost all were individuals who headed a group.
I said there is this impression that there are thousands of big players betting
millions each day. He laughed and said no believe me I know them all, there are
only eight because he has tried to recruit them to bet through United Totes host
tracks, but with out much success. He stated this was because they can't offer the
rebates that an off shore rebate shop can. We talked about how these consortiums
bet by using computer programs hooked into the tote systems and the advantages
they have. He stated that these groups of bettors could not beat the take, without
the rebate, they would lose money. I shook my head, and said it would seem to me you
would have to show a positive Return On Investment before you could bet millions
through a rebate shop. He stated no, they have found a way to beat the system by
betting millions each month by enticing off shore rebate shops to take their bets
and use their influence and computers, which were hooked directly to the betting pools.
He stated "they also have another advantage other than exploiting betting pools with
their computer programs. They have about a ¼ of a mile run before the tote companies
betting windows close". I said "A ¼ of a mile?" He nodded "Yes." I said, "Now that
is a true advantage. Because if you have a computer program that can identify lone speed
and let you have a ¼ mile to decide to place a bet, I would label that cheating. That's
an unfair advantage that we as every day players don't have. If I was a speed player
betting lone speed, I only have to get a hit rate percentage on my ability to find lone
speed, then I would bet millions." Our conversation went from that to how they bet
finding betting pools that were undervalued, and to make money they had to have the
rebate because without it they weren't good enough to make a living betting on the horses.
------------------------
I\'d like to say a few things about it.
1. The United Tote rep is being remarkably frank here. This surprised me in view of what he is saying openly.
2. That there are only a handful of huge groups makes perfect sense. Moreover, I would say these groups do not compete with each other else cannibalisation would certainly take place. In that sense there must be some sort of agreed carve up of the tracks between these groups.
3. That they are getting \"1/4 of a mile\" again makes perfect sense. Not in the way Ed describes it as being a tactical form advantage ie lone speed etc (although it could be used as that too), but primarily
as a mathematical advantage. A key component of extracting the economic inefficiency out of a pool is knowing the final race handle. This is what giving them 1/4 mile is all about. Knowing the exact handle enables them to calculate the optimum amount they can inject into the pool to maximise return on capital outlay.
4. This relates to the last sentence. The only (endemic) economic inefficiency that I am aware of that existed in racetrack betting markets is the fav-longshot bias. In very simplictic terms, that favs are underbet and longshots overbet. Somewhat counter-intuitive but that is why it lay dormant for so long though it has been known for a long time now, just maybe not exploited for practical reasons which computers, networking and (particularly) rebates solve. The fact that some people say the bias is now gone is maybe testament to these groups ability.
If I am right, or even if I am wrong the Tote rep\'s words still surprise me. He is clearly not scared of a court case. This implies it is all legal. In that case, your betting system is legally corrupt if they are shutting shop then giving 25 secs more to these groups.
they would just have the guy runnin the holding barns drugging them anyway.wheres the gamblin theres cheatin..
CTC: Those who know me know I gave up betting on horses seriously in 2000. I take a stab on an occassional rotw but for all practical purposes I am out of the loop. I didn\'t even know who Ghostzapper was until a week before I cashed him in the Breeders Cup.
I am convinced there is past posting going on. I strolled into Aqueduct while between gigs on Jan. 8 to kill some time. Bet an exacta at Calder. My combo was paying $26.00 ON THE FAR TURN. I collected $16.80 (or thereabouts).
Bet a harness race back in November. Horse was paying $9.00 ON THE TURN. I collected $6.80.
Bet an exacta at Suffolk downs in June. Exacta was paying $66.00 ON THE FAR TURN. I collected $44.00.
Oh yeah. I left one out. Ghostzapper was paying $9.00 ON THE TURN. Think he paid all of $6.00.
>Oh yeah. I left one out. Ghostzapper was paying $9.00 ON THE TURN. Think he paid all of $6.00.<
I cashed that ticket also. I recall him getting bet heavy late also, but is this correct.
I know who you are MO...lol
I think the risk of it happening is enough to take precaution. And Jerry is right, in this day and age past posting has various \"angles\" for attempted exploitation by the dishonest, hacking among them. I\'m only a tote board scanner. I don\'t watch it, though I\'ve been the victim of late odds changes. Many of my bets are trifectas and supers so I may not be as aware of \"late\" money. Late money has always impacted the probables and I\'m going back pre simulcast. You guys may have more inside information than I do. Regardless the ideas are precautions that are not overly expensive or unreasonable to implement. They should be done in the name of integrity.
TGJB, thanks for your efforts in getting this out. The points you emphasize are the ones most of us have the greatest concern about as players. raz
Jerry - Great letter to the editor though if NYRA is really serious , a plan akin to your\'s get\'s implemented in NY before racing leaves The Big A this spring .
As I am home today w/ flu and snowed in I\'m brainstorming thinking about the milkshake + rebater calamity .
As you well know , more than public relations magic will be requiered to remediate the situation and it needs to happen on a state to state basis before heavy handed Feds get involved .
Also a distinction needs to be made between a horse that simply flunks a post race test from the more elaborate race fixing sceams and then to apply balanced corrective measures .
In the area of oversite I would like to see a group like United Pegasus Foundation get involved to ensure new policies are functioning properly and are subsequently evaluated .
Post Edited (01-23-05 19:17)
>4. Make the trainer and vet fill out and sign off on a form with every entry, listing everything that has been put into the horse over the last seven days.
This may be the best one in my book. I would hope that after this years Ky Derby Bob Costas during the post race Interview on National Television asks the winning connections, \"Do you realize the following SIX performance enhancing medications your Horse used today, he will not be allowed to use at Belmont Park if he is shooting for the Triple Crown? And tell America was your horse given a Milkshake before todays race?
Only then will Kentucky officials realize how out of sync they are with the rest of the industry and the betting public.
The Post Race betting is probably not as widespread as most think but it only has to happen once like the \"Fix-Six\" to give the whole industry another black and eye and space in the sports section for all the wrong reasons. I\'m certainly not saying this doesn\'t go on, who knows maybe once a week. But not everytime a horses odds drop. Now in the case of Monarchos a few years ago in the Florida Derby anybody who doesn\'t think the $200,000 that was bet on him at the last second wasn\'t placed at the eighth pole is a fool. Lucky for racing that one wasn\'t exposed. A big fix on a major three year old Derby Prep or maybe the Derby itself. Its coming, who knows maybe soon considering how loose all the controls are.
The Rebate issue is really a non-issue regarding the Drug Debate. And yet almost immediately after the scandal broke it became an Organized Crime Rebate Story. When in reality it was a case of a drugged horse juiced so he couldn\'t lose. Didn\'t matter where and how these guy made their bets.
I thought the column in the Sunday Form by DRF ED-in-Chief Steve Christ(sic) was outstanding. Maybe it was a recovery after biting on the \"Mob Rebaters Fix Race\" story like all the other media outlets did. To their credit DRF has been covering the Drug issue in more detail and too their credit they are also pointing out some trainers who have been accused, who are still winning at solid clips. How those trainers do over a long period of time, remains to be seen. My feeling is they will see their percentages go down. Some guys may see theirs cut in half. But hey 15% is almost normal.
There has been much noise made about bets made after post time not only on this forum, but in other discussion groups, industry articles, etc. While in theory it sounds simple, I personally have not been exposed to a technical explanation of how this could occur. The only time I have seen something in writing was the Pick 6 scam, which we know involved inside help.
Assuming that no inside help exists, how does someone place a wager after the pools are supposedly locked? Aren\'t all bets timestamped? How could a bet, made even one second after the pool is locked, be included in the pool itself?
If there was some concernt that a computer had actually been hacked to change timestamps (this would have to be done at the users terminal, ISP/provider, wagering hub, and host track), then why wouldn\'t an investigation ensue? If the Monarchos case was so obvious, wouldn\'t someone do a check and trace back large bets made very close to post time?
Couldn\'t an answer be more likely that the technology employed by large bettors is more sophisticated than that used by the wagering hubs and racetracks? If these large bettors can run algorithms to find the best possible wagers and four, five, or even six figure bets are made just seconds to post, it is no surprise that in a race the odds change on the turn or at the wire. Don\'t the odds update only every 30 seconds? How long does it take for a wager to go from my computer to a hub, on to the track, then added to the pool to calculate odds? What if there was an odds update at 25 seconds after post, but the big wagers were not yet calculate and 30 seconds later the big numbers were added to the pool? You\'d have odds changes almost a minute into the race.
While I can\'t dispute that there could be a way to hack a system and make bets subsequent to post time, I have not seen any hard core evidence to support the claim.
I\'d like to see examples at a particular track of the win or exacta pool at post time, during a race, and after a race. I\'d also need to see the average dollar change of the pools on a race by race basis, then some inordinate change on a suspicious race.
Then investigate that susupicous race and show me the time, amounts and type of bets made; the hub that processed the bets, and the online service that took the bets from the bettor. This wouldn\'t be tough to do, if a track or agency took the situation seriously.
I appreciate all the kind words about my letter to the editor, and won\'t have time to respond to all the points you all have raised. I agree that Crist\'s column was excellent, and I want to encourage everyone not only to make their points here, but in the DRF and other venues. You can send a letter to the editor to editor@drf.com.
Bull, I think a trimmed down version of that post would make a great letter.
Thanks Jerry, I was thinking about turning that post into a letter, as well. Hopefully it inspires others to do the same.
-Brent
I thought for over a year now that NYRA cut off the pools from rebate shops with a minute to go, thus eliminating the algorithmic program from accomplishing its goal?
Jerry, as has been noted... nice letter.
I can\'t wait for next Sunday\'s DRF where we\'ll hear rebuttals. From the tracks (too costly; lets study the problem first for six years)... the vets and the vet lobby (How dare you point the finger at us! We\'re nice guys! We don\'t do bad stuff)... the horsemen (too difficult to work with your horse not in \"your own\" barn. Etc.
John-- That\'s exactly why it\'s important to flood them (and other publications) with letters from our side.
I\'m guessing not many remember this, but some years ago, before there was an NTRA, and while my friend Neil Cook was still editor of the DRF, some industry \"leaders\" in Lexington got together and thought that the thing to do was have a great big marketing plan, and pay for it by raising the takeout-- horseplayers would get to pay to help the breeders and racetracks. They hired a marketer/lobbyist, and they were pushing the plan in every publication they could.
Nobody said a word in opposition-- until I wrote a letter to DRF. The lobbyist came back at me, and I fired back again, this time joined by George White (Mandown of this site), former president of the Racing Times. The lobbyist came at us again, and we fired back again-- it got pretty heated, and he at one point accused me of threatening him (I didn\'t, I just said if he mentioned the idea to a horseplayer at a track he shouldn\'t stand within arm\'s reach). But the issues got a thorough (no pun intended) airing, and the rest of the industry finally took notice. The next week Nick Zito and others, some high profile, joined in with letters, and eventually the idea was dropped. It\'s a fair assumption that if we hadn\'t written the letters-- or if Neil hadn\'t been willing to run them-- the takeout would have been raised.
Look-- this game has always been very reluctant to change, due in large part to the apathy of horseplayers. You guys want change, do something about it. I kicked the door-- it\'s up to all the horseplayers who care to save the game, because for the most part the powers-that-be are clueless, don\'t care, and don\'t want to spend money. I kicked the door-- it\'s up to you guys to kick it down.