Been lots of talk on this Board over the last couple of years regarding Trainer Bobby Frankel. Most of it negative or laced with suspicion. One thing for sure after seeing the performance of Badge of Silver today, the guy can train a horse from time-to-time.
Badge of Silver has been beset by serious injuries throughout his career but has been slowly brought back to career best form and showed it today at Gulfstream. The margin was only a neck but he was clearly best and damn game to boot.
When Badge got back to the Frankel barn I\'m sure Ghostzapper hardly even rolled over in his hay but nonetheless he will make a useful substitute whenever the Big Horse stays home. Assuming Badge can stay healthy for more than three races in a row.
SC,
What I like about you is that you rarely have a disparaging word to say about someone. You\'re right, he won again. I can\'t help but point out he beat Commentator who looks like a sprinter now. He beat an off form Purge and he beat a snakebit can\'t get up to save his life, firesale, best figure running negative 1, Dynever and he did it as the favorite at 2-1. They could run this Grade III twenty more times and Badge could win it every time and I still would not take those odds in the circumstances.
I think he\'s proven that Bobby has gotten him back. Maybe theres more to come, but I dont think we saw enough today to plan deposits.
Rarely have a disparaging word to say about someone????
Say what!!!
The Paulie Man was barking out over the LOUD Speaker this was a Grade I Field. I don\'t know I thought he ran good and the trainer had him ready and got the most out of him. Thats all. I\'m not the unabashed Frankel basher as some others are, I actually like him. He paid his dues, seems a little camera shy and does seem to get some real unusually fast numbers out of a lot of his horses. HMMMMMMM.
By the way if Stronach\'s vision comes true the place (ie Gulfstream) will be all right. The track itself looks extremely banked and fair. The Turf course is as wide as a driving range. The setup right now is intolerable, the people are trying hard, no fault of theirs, but otherwise you feel like you are at a cattle roping contest.
With no quiet place to sit, relax and handicap.
CtC,
I think you got it wrong.
Silver Charm definitely has an occasional disparaging word to say. I had some directed at me last year and still feel the wounds..... :)
Jim
Don\'t take it personal Jimbo.
And for that matter anybody else.
meanie
SC,
I agree with you SC (for whatever that\'s worth) and also thought BOS ran a very strong race considering he was pressing the pace of that sprinter and then faced pressure the entire stretch. Was not surprised that the horse Prado was on ran big either or that Purge ran another clunker. Frankel usally has them ready to run (no matter what he is suspected of doing). So I guess until he\'s indicted, we have to consider the man\'s horses each race he\'s got one entered.
NCTony
IMO, this was a Grade 2 field. Though with Purge not running at his best level and Commentator disappointing a bit, I don\'t think it was as strong a Grade 2 field as I thought going in.
i agree class. purge never fired, and the post forced santos to pull dynever to way back, probably hurting is chances of running a top. the other two favorites are probably better going a bit shorter. i don\'t think this was a real strong race, not a real strong grade 2 type race anyway. i will bet against the winner next out if he catches a strong field going 9f (i think he would get chewed up if if he tried the Donn).
Post Edited (01-10-05 17:17)
Michael, there was no St. Elmo or Rim or GZ or Peace Rules (funny two more i\'m mentioning are Frankels isn\'t it) or even Funny Cide or Newfoundland in there. This was a good race but not a big figure race. What is TGraph gonna rely upon to grade it? The 1st race 14k claimers? They were negative 1 runners and they ran about that. Dynever did what he had to do to get close, save ground. But he lost positions doing it and couldn\'t pick them all up. It would have been worse to give ground. BOS could improve. He might stay 10 marks next time. Thats the nature of Frankel\'s cheating.
CtC,
do me a favor. make me a list and tell me which trainers cheat, and give me your reasons for knowing. you have absolutely no idea, but it will be amusing.
The games most serious cheater is undoutedly Robert Frankel.
It began in 2000, post Triple Crown with Aptitude. Thats when he found the edge. The performance figures of his horses escalated suddenly and though horses have gotten faster in the same time frame I see a distinct speed jump in the Frankels. After Aptitude, Lido Palace followed, followed in short order by Megadeath, (I can never spell his name), then Peace Rules and Empire Maker, then Ghostzapper and now Badge of Silver. Theres others I can\'t recall off the top of my head and I\'m not even factoring sprinters. But I will say Frankel got more out of the five year old Albedaran or whatever his name was than was really in the tank.
Trainers do not get runs of good horses like this. Lukas had some good runs years back but he had more good horses than any trainer has ever had. He rarely picked another horse up from another trainer and moved him forward. Criminal Type perhaps, but that was one that matured a little later in my estimation. Frankel is picking many of his up as hand me downs. You do the math.
Theres no doubt in my mind Frankel is cheating. None whatsoever. He\'s got a new vet and the item is called titration. If I understand it correctly, its bloodpacking. Saturation of oxygen.
The other item thats been going around is \"milkshakes\". A milkshake is ingested and the compound is chemically: NaHCO3. Theres three molecules of oxygen at the end of that compound. Those broken down molecules are getting into the horses blood.
I don\'t know every trainer that is cheating, but theres others besides Frankel that I know are. I think you know one I\'ve mentioned. Others besides that one, many know. I\'m not going to mention every trainer I know is jumping horses because a couple are not well known and are on my play list.
Theres a problem here. It can be an opportunity, but if you dont recognize either you\'re in a tough spot.
CtC
so frankel uses titration, but you are not sure if you understand it correctly? and you mention \"milkshakes\", but you have no idea if frankel uses them on his horses. pretty solid evidence there. i have no idea if frankel is cheating or not, but if i were to accuse him of defrauding the entire industry (like you are), i would bring a bit more evidence to the table. don\'t get me wrong, i think focusing on the subject is a good thing, and will only help get things fixed quicker, but when you say that frankel is DEFINITELY cheating, and when you say that smarty was on illegal drugs last year, i think you are going a bit too far without enough info to back up your accusations.
>Lukas had some good runs years back but he had more good horses than any trainer has ever had. He rarely picked another horse up from another trainer and moved him forward.
Lets see Criminal Type won Horse of the Year. Twilight Agenda ran second in the Breeders Cup Classic. Slew City Slew almost took down Alysheba in the Meadowlands Cup, before he won the BC Classic. Can you say Steinlen.
Spain won the BC Distaff and about $4 Million, Azeri pretty much fell off the face of the earth this year on her way to an Eclipse.
And Thunder Gulch all he did was win the Fla Derby, Ky Derby, Belmont, and Travers on his way to the 3YO Eclipse.
There are others but my memory is slipping.
I just remembered, Gulch.
That about SIX Eclipse winners and one Horse of the Year after he took the horses from someone else. Maybe not Spain only because he happened to train Surfside.
Post Edited (01-11-05 06:59)
If you\'re right about some of those others SC, they slipped by me. T.Gulch was rejected by Lukas at the sales but he picked him up because the buyer brought the horse to him. (Lukas actually scratched his name off in the sales catalogue) I don\'t think he started for another trainer. I could be wrong. I never considered Slew City that good a horse. (He popped on speed tracks for a race or two didn\'t he?)I dont think he beat Alysheba at 10 marks but I really can\'t remember. I think Azeri fell off this past year. Lukas got her to run no faster than De Sereau (sic) ever did. He didn\'t get as much out of her through mishandling and misplacement and thats why she\'ll be runner up in the eclipse. The voters can count and they can measure head to head.
The one that you mentioned that makes the strongest case for Lukas is probably Twilight Agenda. But, I can\'t remember where he came from. The same for Spain. I swore he had her all along. I don\'t factor turf horses. Turf can move them up as well. Lukas is many things, but hes\' not a turf trainer and I\'m factoring Marlin who you forgot.
But the key with Lukas will obviously be comparing the speed figures. Did Lukas actually move this animals forward like Frankel is doing? Lukas\'s success is getting to be pretty remote so I can\'t pull numbers for any horse but Azeri and he most certainly did not impact her favorably.
I know he moved Criminal Type. I think he moved Twilight. I can\'t remember Gulch. Thats about as far as I can go. And he caught twilight at four is my recollection. My general read is that he picked up horses that were already fast. But we need someone with back figures to substantiate and many of these horses predate my computer era.
CtC
Post Edited (01-11-05 08:28)
Michael,
I\'m looking at numbers. They don\'t make sense and theres a few common suspects that are jumping horses. I\'ve heard the new vet refers to his gimmick as titration related. The vet works for Frankel. I\'ve tried to figure out titrations. I dont\' understand it. Technically its introducing a known substance into an unknown substance and by the remainder of the known substance you ascertain the identity of the unknown. If thats it, I dont know what he\'s introducing or dissipating. But I have my suspicion. He\'s playing word games. This guy is clever and needs to be banned from the game.
We know Frankel is not milkshaking. The Hals Hope confirmed that.
Post Edited (01-11-05 09:30)
Can\'t respond in detail now.
Gulch came from Jolley. Lukas sprinted him instead of running him a mile and half.
Thunder Gulch came from Kimmel. Look at his Sheet in the archives for past DERBY WINNERS. Lukas picked him up either after the Cowdin or Hollywood Futurity. He moved up
Azeri was broken down, crippled and a tragedy waiting to happen. Three Grade One wins later........
Steinlen is still the only horse to win the Arlington Million and the BC Mile in the same year.
SC,
\"Another example of an overlooked juvenile was Thunder Gulch. (Lukas overlooked him) The 1995 Three-Year-Old Male Champion and dual Classic Winner was purchased by Ken Ellenberg at the 1993 Keeneland July select sale for $40,000. The colt was consigned to the 1994 Keeneland April juvenile sale by Dr. Jerry Bailey, where Thunder Gulch failed to meet the reserve price of $125,000. Bailey and Ellenberg then privately sold a half-interest in the future Eclipse Award Winner to New York businessman Howard Rozin. After a number of outstanding performances under the tutelage of John Kimmel, the son of Eclipse Award Winning Sprinter Gulch was sold to Michael Tabor and transferred to the barn of D. Wayne Lukas. Thunder Gulch won four grade one races, including the Kentucky Derby, the Belmont Stakes, the Travers Stakes and the Florida Derby, en route to career earnings of $2,915,086.\"
http://www.racereadysales.com/news_5-4.asp
SC, at two he was second in the Hollywood Futurity and Cowdin and won the Remson. The question is when did Lukas get him the horse was a prospect very early. But I appreciate the clarification. Lukas did not have him all along.
Gulch was always able to sprint. Just when did Lukas pick him up and confirm it? If you\'re saying Lukas confirmed him as a sprinter, I\'ll agree....lol. I just don\'t remember when he picked him up, but the horse had talent early. My guess Frankel would have made a modern Gulch a 10 mark Grade I winner. I\'d dead serious.
I thought Lukas did a good job with Steinlein I think I even cashed a bet on him.
Post Edited (01-11-05 11:02)
I break these move up/super trainers into several groups.
Those that develop lightly raced horses of high quality significantly over time. I don't see the big deal with this group. Some guys have a barn full of tigers to work with almost every year and do a great job of developing them, spotting them where they belong, and getting a high percentage of winners out of them. Their success attracts other wealthy owners who give them even more top horses and a self-reinforcing pattern of success develops. I've been seeing trainers that fall into this category since the 70s and I don't think many of them are cheating because they do have ups and downs.
Those that move up OLDER horses that they recently acquired from another trainer (lightly raced young horses are expected to move up) . If the horse was acquired from a trainer of lesser competence I don't see a problem. If he was acquired from another highly regarded horseman, I am more suspicious. However, I think time is also a factor. If trainer "X" takes over the training of a horse and 2-3 months later he's hitting new tops that could easily be the result of a different training regimen, nutrition, care etc.. It's the big move ups by older horses coming from another competent trainer in only a couple of weeks that are a problem. The reality is that there aren't all that many of those. There are clearly some though.
However, handicappers shouldn't be complaining. It's the owners and fair trainers that should be complaining. Handicappers should view this as part of the game no matter why it is occurring. Instead of whining about drugs, milkshakes, etc.... keep track of who the move up trainers are and what their modus operandi is and simply adjust your betting. These situations can be a source of profits. If you know trainer "X" often moves up horses in a certain situation, there may be plenty of bettors that are just looking at the raw figures, trips, class etc.... and that could create an overlay situation. So exploit it when you can and take it into account when making your odds line.
CH-- I agree with some of this, don\'t with some. Yes, it is much harder to tell whether a trainer is moving up his horses if he has the horse from the start. But in the spring of 01, Frankel\'s entire barn moved up about 4 points in a 2 month period-- and they were almost all older horses, because that\'s what he trains. We heard later that\'s when Allday started working for him.
I don\'t agree that it is not my concern as a handicapper that trainers are cheating (and that doesn\'t even address the issue of competing with them on the racetrack). I don\'t want to guess, and I don\'t want to play a game in which there is a large amount of what amounts to inside information-- someone knows more than me, and they are competing with me in the pools. At best, it takes getting beat by a few jump-ups before we figure out what\'s going on, and overall it introduces another hard to quantify variable, even if you have info or deduce something is going on. If we know what we are doing as handicappers, we want as little of that as possible.
If I was making the rules there would be 24 hour detention barns at every track, they would be freezing samples, trainers and vets would be required to sign off on everything administered for every race, and there would be a vet of record listed in the program.
JB,
I wasn\'t being specific to Frankel even though I know that most of the thread was about him. I was just making general commentary because there are a few trainers under suspicion because of superior results that IMO are not cheating.
I used to feel exactly the way you do when it comes to the gambling aspect of this. In fact, I used to get into heated debates about it because I felt the insiders had a huge edge and I could never get it right. However, the reality of it is that a few of the best horseplayers I know don\'t make make much money with speed figures, pace figures, sophisticated field strength analysis, bias, trips, etc... They make almost all their money off trainer changes and patterns among the supposed juice guys. They notice \"meaningful\" things quickly before it gets built into the odds, get off at the right time etc...
So like it or not, there\'s substantial profits in it if you focus on it and get very skilled at it. The guys I am talking about whine when nobody seems to be juicing their horses a lot because they can\'t find profitable situations. :-)
At this point I realize that this type of thing is not one of my strengths. I think I don\'t have the insights needed to be profitable and even if I do I am not comfortable when I feel like I am guessing. So I focus on the races where I believe it isn\'t a factor as often (grades stakes vs. claimers etc...) When I am unsure what\'s going on in one of these big races I just pass.
At least it has stopped bothering me. I don\'t play maiden races with a lot of first time starters or turf races with a lot of first time turfers either even though I know a guy that rarely bets anything except races like that. It comes down to my skill set and insights. The money is there to be made.
TGJB wrote:
> If I was making the rules there would be 24 hour detention
> barns at every track, they would be freezing samples, trainers
> and vets would be required to sign off on everything
> administered for every race, and there would be a vet of record
> listed in the program.
>
I like that. Its a simple rememdy that sheds a little sunshine on the performance issus. The vet listing should be done immediately.
Assuming the couple reports I\'ve read are accurate and the Vet is referring to his work as \"Titration\" related, I\'ve somewhat deduced that whatever is being administered is in regard to oxygen saturation/latic acid neutralization. The substance is either not on the compound list or its breaking down quickly so it leaves no trace of restricted substances.
I\'m not a chemist, I dont know what you neutralize lactic acid with or if sufficient amounts of oxygen discourage its formation. The EPO thing has also never left the back of my mind. It supposedly stimulated the production of oxygen carrying red blood cells.
EPO definitely helps create red blood cells-- it\'s a drug developed for humans with anemia. Bases (like sodium bicarbonate, originally used in \"milkshakes\"), neutralize lactic acid. EPO is not a race day drug-- they get built up over a few weeks. Milkshakes are raceday drugs, and whatever they are putting in them now is much more effective than 5 years ago.
Also have heard something about a feed additive used on trotters (Stan Bergstein\'s column), but I\'ve seen no followup.
When I was doing the research for \"Are Racehorses Getting Faster\", I read writings of two different scientists who mentioned a ceiling on performance caused by oxygen limits and lactic acid buildup. What did they know.
JB,
Since we are on the subject here\'s a link to the Bloodhorse article
http://opinions.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=25964
NC Tony
TGJB wrote:
Bases (like sodium
> bicarbonate, originally used in \"milkshakes\"), neutralize
> lactic acid. Milkshakes are raceday drugs, and whatever
> they are putting in them now is much more effective than 5
> years ago.
Interesting, I thought milkshaking was to get oxygen into the horse. I know oxygen enters the bloodstream through the lungs, but don\'t see any reason why it can\'t be absorbed into the bloodstream via the stomach or intestine as oxygen or in compound form that breaks down into oxygen while in the blood. If they are introducing it as a base to counter lactic acid, the base would have to be picked up by the muscle where the latic acid builds up is my understanding. It may be, I did not know that. But, my biology is rudimentary and chemistry worse. My suspicion is some Vets have very good chemistry training.
Appreciate your insights I\'ll try and find the stories.
CtC
O.K. confirmed the bicarbonate reduces lactic acid. Thats apparently what its for.
\"Sodium bicarbonate buffering has been suggested for people to neutralize lactate (lactic acid) buildup during high intensity weight training. The MAJOR problem is that since it is sodium bicarbonate, taking it will jack up your sodium levels incredibly. One teaspoon is something like twice the daily maximum and effective buffering requires a good bit more. We considered the idea of using Calcium Carbonate, but apparently bicarbonate is effective at a different pH range and CaCO3 would not have the same benefits. And remember, high sodium levels contribute directly to high blood pressure, which is not a good thing when training hard.\"
http://members.shaw.ca/bodybuilding/Muscles/Lactic_Acid.html
Post Edited (01-11-05 19:24)
Bobby Rotten, Sid Vicious, where else but on this Board. (lol)
Lukas picked up Gulch during the layoff between his three year old and four year old campaigns. Whether or not that was before owner Peter Brandt went ot jail, while he was in jail, or after he got out of jail. I will defer to you.
Seems as though Brandt would have been an appropriate owner for Criminal Type and yet Calumets Lundy certainly didn\'t let anyone down in that regards.
SC,
I respect Wayne. He scares the **** out of me. And truthfully what he said about Consolidator bothers me...lol If he had Frankels mojo he\'d be right at the top again.
Just to complicate matters a bit, the following is an excerpt from an article entitled \"Lactic acid--the latest performance-enhancing drug\" that appeared in the August 20, 2004 issue of Science (a prestigious journal):
\"For many athletes, coaches, and sports commentators, muscle fatigue and the accumulation of lactic acid (generated from the anaerobic breakdown of glycogen) are more or less synonymous. However, the importance of lactic acid in muscle fatigue is now under scrutiny. On page 1144 of this issue, Pedersen et al. present a further challenge to the traditional view with their demonstration that lactic acid, in fact, has beneficial effects on the performance of fatigued muscles.\"
On a related subject, I wonder if it\'s not a bit of a logical leap to assume that move-up trainers are \"cheating.\" Given that steroids and any number of other things are not illegal (I\'m amazed by some of the things I\'ve learned reading this board), it seems to me equally likely that the vets to move-up trainers have come up with some combination of treatments and/or chemicals that enhance performance without clearly violating the letter of the law. People take advantage of gray areas in other pursuits. I\'m not sure why treating race horses should be any different.
Bit, you may be right on with that, they\'ve allowed a lot of medication in the game and theres items not on the prohibited lists that one day will be. The thing that bothers me is that I\'m not enamored with conditions that allow the horse with the best chemist to win. In my opinion, thats what TGJB was saying with his imput this thread. Make them announce medications and freeze samples for later determinations. If they dont announce and its later determined they were running on something. Penalites. The trainer is the guarantor of the horse\'s condition. All state racing substance statutes require that.
I would love to see the vet of record
listed in the program.
Five or six (?) years ago a vet whose name
escapes me got into a protracted pissing
contest with NYRA. I think part of the
dispute ended up in court. During the
time this vet was barred, his main
client,Gasper Moschera, fell off
the face of the Earth and eventually
retired. The two young trainers who
came out from Moschera\'s shedrow- Odintz
and Mitch Friedman, who were probably
using the same vet, hit rough times.
Was there more to this story?
While we are on the program, how about
getting a little more information on
more subtle equipment changes. I would
like to know when a trainer is adding a figure 8,replacing a nose band with a shadow
roll, changing bits or types of blinkers
etc. Standardbred programs
contain this info. There is probably
someone out there who is collecting
this info, why can\'t we get it?
Wednesday we will see what Mr. Passero, track super at NYRA, is capable of.
With the heavy rain and rising
temperatures, I think there
is a great chance of cancellation or
abbreviated card, though I hope not.
Post Edited (01-12-05 00:29)
Dr. Galvin I presume...
On March 27, 1998, plaintiff, Dr. Michael Galvin (\"Dr.Galvin\"), a professional equine veterinarian specializing in thoroughbred racehorses, was present in Barn 38 at the Belmont Park racetrack, treating horses that were under the supervision of trainer Mitch Friedman (\"Friedman\"). At that time, George Cary, an investigator for the New York State Racing and Wagering Board, reportedly observed Dr. Galvin \'tubing\' [FN1] a horse Cary identified as \'Hip Wolf\', presumably for the purpose of improperly administering performance- enhancing drugs. Following an investigation, in April, 1998, the three track officials who supervise Belmont Park, known as the Stewards, suspended Dr. Galvin\'s license for sixty days, the maximum penalty they could impose. That suspension was stayed, however, pending referral of the matter for review by the Racing and Wagering Board.
FN1. \'Tubing\' is the use of a plastic tube inserted through the nostril for the administration of drugs directly into the stomach of a horse.
The aggressive vet known as \"White Mercedes\" used to do work for trainer Ronny Werner for a brief time, but when one of Werner\'s nice horses broke down, Werner fired him. Last year when the underachieving BADGE OF SILVER changed hands to Frankel, and the animal changed to the care and modus operandi of White Mercedes, do you think there was something of a revenge factor there for White Mercedes?
By the way, White Mercedes finished 1, 3, 4 in the Hal\'s Hope. He vets BADGE OF SILVER, CONTANTE (who finished 3rd at 21-1) and ADDED EDGE (4th at 14-1). Hey, let\'s not stop there. White Mercedes also vets SARATOGA COUNTY, whose 5-wide turn, zoom rally won the G3 Mr. Prospector Saturday in what obviously was a lifetime top. What? Something on the order of a -3 ThoroGraph? He also worked on LIMEHOUSE! So White Mercedes was the exacta.
It\'s an easier game if you know which horses have had their oil changed by White Mercedes.
Yes....yes. I can see it now.
Twilight, perhaps the black of night on the backside. The grooms have finished rubbing the runners from the day and the last of the four legged beasts of wind have settled into their stalls for the night. Some of the backside folks have a beer or a soda in their hand and they are passing time and shooting the breeze, maybe admiring with a smile the derriere of a two legged filly. A horse whinnies somewhere within the wooden shedrow and the sound of the horse carries softly to those gathered, like the gentle sound of the sweetest violin in the most expert of hands. All is right in this world and then suddenly a car\'s headlights pierce the serenity of the evening and the vehicle stops near the top trainer\'s stalls. A quick walking man moves from the vehicle and is greeted by an employee. He enters the stall with a small bag and reappears outside again after only a few minutes and then he is gone. No one would ever know he was there at all, but for the gathered help and the departing red glow of tail lights from the White Mercedes.
As the White Mercedes emerges from the mist engulfing the still track and turns left on to A1A, Spenser eases the Toronado\'s motor to life, smiles at Hawk, and pulls onto the highway.....
John T:
I take you at your word, but Magic Man\'s work with Dream Weaver is news to me. I had heard of a few new clients he picked up this winter but wasn\'t aware Saratoga County was now under his care.
Catalin wrote:
I had heard of a few new clients he picked up
> this winter but wasn\'t aware Saratoga County was now under his
> care.
And thats the problem. The only way the average guy thats not tight with the backside can identify vet influence is to review race results and deliberate sudden moveups. If the vet was listed in the p.p.s I doubt I would be a big vet wagerer and I still would have passed or lost on the Hal\'s Hope, but I would have had Contante in my drafted bet.
Is it the trainer or is it the vet?
And assuming \"good work\" by both is important to a horses efforts, the public has a right to know who the horse\'s trainer and vet are.
CtC
CtC,
You asked the question I\'ve been wondering about for quite some time, ( unless your hooked up on the backside), how do we who wager from States like NC and don\'t have backside conections get the info on vets? Any suggestions?
And is the White Mercedes the guy I think it is?
Anyone?
NCTony
Tony,
Thats a tough one. When I was learning handicapping, I was given advice to apply for a job on the backside. My problem is horses don\'t like me. I\'m dead serious. They get spooky around me. I had good contacts in Florida though and was much more in tune to the backside. I had free admission every year to Hialeah and a stable pass and sat in a couple trainers boxes. I still get an occasional heads up but thats about it.
You can meet the trainers in the clubhouse after the races. Some of them like to have a drink. I\'m not shy and I told them honestly what I thought about their horses and if you\'re sincere and they see you each Saturday after the race or in the paddock they get to know you. Trainers can learn from handicappers too. Spotting biases and sharing them and the like. Ascertaining post and pace issues. Although local trainers generally know everything. None of which applies to you in North Carolina...lol
I\'m in the same category you are. I mean you\'re here. Thats a big plus. White Mercedes is apparently Steve Allday. John Chance just spoke volumes in this thread. Dale Romans is a suspect. Todd Pletcher is a suspect. I will now monitor Stanley Hough. I was not aware of that. Weaver is an up and comer, but to my eye Saratoga County is the only horse of his looking odd, so I\'ll reserve judgement.
CtC
I think you guys may be hurting yourself by being overly preoccupied with vets, drugs and cheating. If you mentally get the point where you think every time your horse loses it\'s probably because of drugs, milkshakes, vets, steroids etc... it will ruin your handicapping.
The vast majority of the time, if a trainer has been cheating it is already reflected in the horse\'s past performances. So most of the time you don\'t even have to worry about it.
What you want to do is key in on trainer changes.
As soon as a horse switches to a so called super trainer (or away from him) you have to be on guard for sudden dramatic improvement/decay in performance that could extend for several races. Once the horse has been in the barn for awhile the new drug enhanced performance level is in the figures.
You might also want to monitor if a specific super trainer suddenly puts out a couple of short priced duds. That could indicate a problem in the barn (even a legit one like all his horses came down with a cough and missed a few days of training) or a vet change.
Post Edited (01-13-05 19:31)
I agree with part of your statement CH. I\'ve always believed you can factor the cheating. I\'ve been doing it. You can make money on the cheaters in a couple ways. Being in on the jump up period or taking a stand against the juice boys when the crowd pounds down the odds below acceptable. The latter will always result in scores because theres a lot of ways to lose a race and that includes a juiced horse. Frankel\'s loss in the DeFrancis for example.
If its good handicapping for the bettor to factor trainer changes, it has to be good handicapping for the bettor to factor vet changes. Frankel is using Allday, I want to know when Johnny come lately switches to him or as you indicated when Ronnie Werner fires him.
One last little point. Its a possibility that Alldays trainers dont know precisely what he\'s doing.
CtC
Post Edited (01-13-05 17:02)
I wonder at times how much happenchance factors into the equation for so many big name trainers .
Lukas for example alway\'s seems to have faster (and better ) horse\'s sitting around which he doesn\'t appear to pay serious attention too .
Baffert has a couple horse\'s running at Santa Anita saturday ( both of which I like ) and his Indian Country fit\'s in that race pretty well it seems due in part to having not over raced the horse as a 3 year old and having had passed on alot of races last year with that horse .
I\'m actually begining to belive that Baffert might know what he is doing and perhap\'s has seen into the \" future of racing \" a bit with a more natural patient approach - though he\'d be alot smarter to hire you on to work with him in managing his barn and putting together the y2 megadynasty ...
I still want to know what happens to these super trainers when they get to Saratoga. Is it the mountain air? The history, pride, and mystique of the racetrack?
What is it about Saratoga that causes a Mr. Dutrow to train at 4% or an Iwinski to train at 6%? Or Bobby Frankel to go on 19 race losing streaks and look like a mere mortal??
Hmmm, so what is it about the Spa that brings these super trainers back down to earth???
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Part of the reason may be preponderance
of Maiden Special Weight/ 2YO/ Turf
racing. The prototypical supertrainers
(your guys term, not mine)at NYRA over
the years (Moschera, Ferriola, Dutrow Jr)
have not generally had too many horses that
fit Saratoga racing, and traditionally
have not had owners who care too much
about winning up there.
Post Edited (01-18-05 12:16)
joe,
i could be wrong, but isn\'t the theory here that allday is responsible for frankel\'s success? isn\'t allday also the vet for pletcher, the most successful trainer ever at the spa? (and no, i am not defending any of the names you mentioned, i have no idea what they do).
>What is it about Saratoga that causes a Mr. Dutrow to train at 4% or an Iwinski to train at 6%? Or Bobby Frankel to go on 19 race losing streaks and look like a mere mortal??<
This one I can answer in part.
There was a cough going around in Frankel\'s barn during that dry spell and virtually all his horses had a problem.
Well... maybe. If they really were coughing, he wouldn\'t have run them-- Frankel is not a guy who feels compelled to enter a lot of races.
From what I have been told, a lot of this has to do with the layout of the barn areas at the different tracks. Some barns are easy to keep an eye on, others are not.
I figured you wouldn\'t believe the coughing story. :-)
At one point he had a long string of losers in graded company. Several of them clearly ran very subpar (they weren\'t just losing). I heard the coughing story. So I started avoiding his horses. A few more ran subpar after that. I can\'t remember if I read about it or if I was told about it by someone at the track. Either way, that wouldn\'t be the first time I heard a story like that and almost an entire barn went bad for a couple of weeks. AS far as I was concerned I had information that indicated his horses might not run well and they weren\'t. So I was right on top of it and a little more forgiving when they showed up again.