Well, it\'s about that time of year again....time to pull out the records and see what needs improving.
One of the struggles in my game has always been the type of horses that demand my largest wagers, the prime bet so to speak. I am talking about the horses that we stay up all night thinking about in anticpiation of their performance. The constant tug of war between placing my largest wagers on low priced overlays (horses at 1-1 on my line going off at least 9/5 or 2-1) and longer priced overlays usually consisting of subtle but powerful positive condition lines, drives me insane sometimes. I never venture large bets on horses with negative lines, but sometimes I see horses with a huge advantage in numbers and no real negative knocks in terms of condition (see Ghostzapper). In the past, I used to make horses like these my largest, prime bet wagers, provided they met my odds requirement. I feel now that I am a solid condition handicapper, and I feel I might be underbetting some of these longer priced \"condition\" horses because they are lower percentage bets (despite long term profits) and streaks last so long and can cripple a bankroll.
I guess admist all this rambling is the search for some advice. I have been doing this for a while with success, but only have been seriously dedicated to condition handicapping for a few years. I was interested if maybe Jerry or some other successful bettors could chime in with some of their styles and preferences. Do you focus your largest wagers on low priced overlays or longer priced condition horses? It seems to fly in the face of the traditional approach to making an odds line. If I make a horse 4-5 based on a huge number advantage and no negative pattern, and that horse goes off 2-1 ....would you say that\'s a better spot for a large wager than a positive condition horse you made 3-1 or 4-1 and going off at 10-1???
All advice is appreciated in advance and I must take this time to wish everyone a safe and happy holidays....and hopefully a prosperous new year!!!
-Bull
Certainly Jerry is the #1 leading authority on Handicapping , Wagering stratigies , making speed figure\'s and money mngmnt etc - what Jerry say\'s goes and he can best tell you where to go with this . However ...
I can honestly say that he taught me nearly everything good I know about the game including how to read and how to interpit his Thorograph Numbers & Data - which incidently are in my opinion revolutionizing Handicapping and the way one may view a race and provide the essential and most critical information that is required when endevoring to handicap a race , so your on the right path ...
OK with that said , your post Bull is one which I find most interesting , and as I\'m sure , a post that everyone identifies with and relates to .
I\'m am not presently supporting myself soley on handicapping and betting so I\'ve generally been passing on most short priced stuff and opting for those condition overlay\'s you\'ve refered to .
With the cost of living these day\'s in New York it\'s hard to take a $4 Double or $10 early P-3 to cope with prohibrative prices @ Hol as was just the case this past wednesday and it was alot easier to bet a horse that paid $ 82 @ GG the same day who was as fast as any in that race going in .
However , both of those play\'s are the types of situations that do not arise everytime one looks at a race card and are exactly the kind of wagers to be making .
You sound like you definately know what you are doing Bull and probably only need to buckle down on your Trip Handicapping and work more w/ the new TG pattern study data & stats which should help to shorten those dry spells and to basically stay the course and patiently await for those break out oppertunities or other types of play\'s that fall into your comfort zone ...
Perhaps you could even Handicap more while at the same time passing on more races than usual that aren\'t \"A\" type play\'s .
Post Edited (12-25-04 19:50)
I think as a theoretical rule you should look at the degree of edge you have and the probabilty of winning. You then should weigh the two. You certainly want to bet more when you have a bigger edge, but you have to balance that against the bankroll and psychological risks that come with lower probability horses going off at big odds.
Now that I\'ve told what I think is theoretically correct, that\'s not what I do.
When I used to do that I used to break even, win a little, or lose a little.
Experience taught me that I had little or no edge on high probability short priced horses that I thought were overlays. I was just spinning my wheels winning/losing a few cents on a dollar each year. All the profits were located on 3-1 shots and higher.
Personally, I believe it is more difficult than people think to find solid overlays among short priced horses even if you are fairly skilled at making an odds line. If more people studied their results by odds category I am certain others would find the same thing.
The second lesson I learned is that it RARELY IF EVER makes sense to make saver wagers when you find an overlay at a decent price. Putting underlay horses over live long shots with saver exactas may allow you to cash a few extra tickets from time to time, but it almost always destroys value.
I make flat win bets on overlays at 3-1 and higher and keep the bet level low enough so that a long losing streak will not impact my bankroll or head. I only play exactas/doubles when I am hooking up two overlays. Sometimes I bet 2 horses to win in a race and hook them up. (when I dislike the favorite for instance).
Post Edited (12-26-04 10:14)