...and not a moment too soon.
So, Friedman came along and saved Alydar/Janis/Tom/Hell-Hath-No-Fury from having to do what he agreed to do, which was to discuss the issues (multiple gross errors) in Ragozin\'s Derby and Breeder\'s Cup figures, on Ragozin\'s board.
Rather than tell Friedman that if they had done nothing wrong they had nothing to fear, Tom apologized to him (!!), and offered to continue the conversation with me via private e-mail. Where no one would know.
Uh, no thanks.
Sincere question, not trying to be a smart@$$...is the purpose of all these threads about the Rags board to try and lure their customers away?
Just curious, and there is certainly nothing wrong with that. They don\'t make for very good reading for those of us who don\'t care about Rags numbers, that is all.
Yeah, that\'s pretty much it, and I know they don\'t make for fun reading. Good news is, they usually take place only around the Triple Crown and Breeders Cup, and only sporadically the rest of the year.
The problem for me is in finding examples that are neither open to interpretation, nor involve theoretical issues that go over heads-- I\'ve tried that, and some get it, but some don\'t, since most haven\'t made figures. That means finding examples in major races, that are easy to see if they are pointed out, and relatively easy to understand. And again, the problem is not the errors (well, it is a problem if it\'s systemic, which it obviously is if they can\'t get the Derby and BC right), but more importantly, that they deny the errors, won\'t discuss them, and most importantly won\'t fix them when they are pointed out. How much credibility can the rest of their work have?
So yeah, that\'s why I do it. And that\'s why I went to Vegas for the Expo-- I was told it was going to be a debate.
Beyerguy,
With all due respect, how can it not be important? The only way it can\'t be important is if you assume that the figures are icons that are pure and perfect in and of themselves. It doesn\'t work that way. When you call a 16=1 horse to be competitive in a race, you have to know if he is two, three or four points off the best efforts of the others and whether he\'s just paired up. Are you immersed enough in an activity to the point of understanding it so thoroughly you shake your head incredulously at the nonsense perpetrated by others in that field? I\'m not talking figures, take your pick of topics. Was Bush ignorant or lying and why is he finally coming clean on Iraq? Dubya doesn\'t have to sell sheets though. At least not any longer.
Post Edited (12-21-04 17:37)
CTC-- I don\'t think Beyerguy was saying it wasn\'t important, just that he didn\'t pay much attention to Ragozin and so found the conversation boring and/or annoying.
No, he didn\'t say \"its not important\" and I enjoy Beyerguy\'s posts. But to my mind, the debate is educational and it is important to anyone that uses figures as their primary tool.
Chuckles_the_Asskissin\'Clown2,
Why is it important? I use figures as my primary tool and I don\'t give a flying f.. about how they\'re made, who makes them or who THINKS who made a mistake. It doesn\'t affect my bottom line an iota one way or the other.
Frank
frank, thats cuz youre a retard
freakin idiot raggie
Post Edited (12-21-04 18:41)
Frank-- I don\'t want this to get out of hand, and I\'m not looking to get into another brawl right now since I just ended one (and the other guy knows who won). But I have to ask you, how come you haven\'t called the guys on the other board asskissers? I would say the fawning posts there outnumber ours oh, maybe 10-1 or so.
In the end, you do care about how they are made, since it DOES affect your results-- you just don\'t know it.
And finally, it\'s not about \"thinking\" someone made a mistake (and didn\'t correct it when it was pointed out)-- not if you can prove it. And I did.
Jerry,
It\'s not going to get out of hand. I took a shot at the clown because his bullcrap quotient is off the chart and I didn\'t like him in his last go round as the racist clown either.
His posts alone make your 10-1 ratio impossible. The guy never shuts his piehole.
In the end, I really don\'t care because it DOESN\'T affect my results. I think for every mistake they make you make one and vice-versa. You guys are just widget makers. Us users determine who wins and who loses by how good we are at using your widgets.
Finally, I don\'t think you proved anything. You presented your opinion and they chose not to respond. Not because they were caught without an answer but because that is their strategic response to your strategy.
And, AK_clown, I currently use TG.
Frank
Frank-- I do agree that you guys have a little to do with whether you succeed or not-- it\'s not ALL me.
The proof I\'m talking about can be found in the charts and replays of the Derby and BC Sprint, whether they choose to respond or not-- evidence is evidence unless it is refuted. It is definitely NOT mistake for mistake with the widgets, but you have no way of knowing that-- not if you don\'t care enough to look.
CTC did some stuff that got him barred first go round, but when he came back he had cleaned up his act. Others who misbehaved here, one way or another, refused to modify their behavior. So he gets to come back, and they don\'t. Regardless, you want to dispute 10-1, fine. But it\'s WAY more, and no one seems to think that\'s a problem.
Jerry,
I think it\'s fair that AK_clown gets to come back. After all it\'s your board, your rules. But you are what you are and he is still the racist he used to be. But I do believe in second chances. After all, I fired you for misbehaviour once upon a time and now look, I\'m back.
You are right. I don\'t care to look. Time is a valuable and limited commodity. I prefer to spend mine studying your good, but far from perfect figures and try to scope out winners.
When are you coming out with a sales supplement. Alan told me you might have something two years ago.
Frank
We were looking at doing a sales supplement with Equine Commerce, but they couldn\'t make it. Send me an e-mail about what you\'re looking for, we\'ll see if there\'s something we can do.
Frank,
You wouldn\'t understand this game if you were a horse, being a horse\'s ass makes it impossible.
Besides, I wasn\'t barred. It was a self imposed exile. I merely objected to providing my personal email. But, if cretins insist upon stirring old mud, they are easy enough to put in their place.
lol
Retard
CtC
Post Edited (12-21-04 23:14)
CtC,
I wasn\'t saying it wasn\'t important. Its just that I\'m already convinced the Rags guys make a lot of errors.
I don\'t have to read the posts though, so my fault there. And I\'m certainly not going over to the Rags board just to understand these threads.
As far as Rags, I learned all I needed to know about them with Clock Stopper. First, they are in error to say he broke poorly. He did not, period. Second, even if he did, to adjust his figure for a slow break is craziness. I think they got the ground wrong then tried to come up with a plausible excuse, but this made them look even worse.
Frank,
I\'d like you point out a few of the errors JB has made since you say you think both makes errors. I\'ve seen many pointed out about Rags (and proven), and none about TG figs. And I don\'t just mean on this board, maybe from the other?
beyerguy,
I use many sets of TG sheets on a very regular basis and come across what I believe are very questionable figures from time to time. But I can\'t sit here and write that this figure for this horse on this day is an error because I don\'t care to keep records of these things. I believe that the figures are very good, but not without error.
How can the figures be without error given that the art of making variants is so subjective? Would you like to try and defend the position that Jerry & his staff do not make any errors? Jerry has a pretty high opinion of himself and I don\'t think even he wants to defend that position.
Don\'t mistake my attack on a distasteful clown as an attack on Thorograph. I have a high opinion of the work that is done here just as I have a high opinion of the work done across the street. I have at different times used both products exclusively without any significant change in results. All the us against them stuff is just a bunch of crap and I really don\'t care to participate.
Happy Holidays.
Frank
Just to be clear-- a lot of figure making is subjective, a lot is based on theory that is either dogmatic, or reality based, and accuracy depends on humans, who make mistakes. We are willing to explain and defend our theories and judgement, and when a human error is pointed out to us, we are willing to fix it if it is called for-- we take our responsibility to our clients seriously. No one is claiming not to make mistakes.
No one HERE.
All I can say is that \"Frank\" prefaced his involvement in this debate with words to the effect that \"He did not care how figures are made and that working to insure their accuracy did not matter to him because they did not affect his ROI.\" If you doubt my pharaphrasing of the matter, check the thread and decide for yourself. Then he turned around and said he was a TGraph user. Why do I find those statements both self serving and conflicting? I always get a kick out of those that post saying they are using TGraph while they take shots at the concern. Convenient isn\'t it? Anyone hear the \"Terminator Dogs\" barking? (Thats a Classic Silver Charm) Well \"Frank\" I doubt your statements, but I hope you really are using TFigs. With the logic you\'ve demonstrated in a couple posts here, I\'m convinced that you need them. If you are using them you need to reflect upon your debate technique and ask yourself: \"How can I ever trust the other guys when they refuse to fix, let alone acknowledge their errors?\" (And those are issues they\'ve been CAUGHT on.) Think long and hard on that and then consider how you might amend your original post.
Saying something doesn\'t make it true. Regardless of who says it. Rags amply demostrates that when they publish baloney figures. I still don\'t like Japanese that crush out cigarettes with their heels upon the Arizona Memorial and I am an Anti-Zionist. If you understand anything at all about PNAC you would be too. Unless you\'re a Zionist and in that case you\'ll support the Iraq boondoggle and not even God can help you.
TGraph has stated numerous times that modern vet work is impacting the figure. That the medicine is discernable in the number assigned. I\'ve heard it and I believe it, but in practice its very hard to reconcile with handicapping experience. I\'ve questioned TGraphs interpretation of the B.C. Classic since I first heard of the numbers. The other factor of course is Steve Allday. I\'ll keep that in mind as races develope to confirm or disprove my skepticism with the Classic. Can anyone point me to any articles where Allday is the subject? I\'m having a devil of a time finding any material on him.
Thx Jerry on the Silver Charm sales info.
CtC
Frank,
There will always be \"questionable\" figures, no matter who makes them. I cash some nice bets just by knowing when the Beyer guys blow one. They do it often enough, usually when they inflate a figure do to an extreme fast or slow pace, but sometimes they deflate one because it just looks \"too fast.\" This is not what I meant by an \"error\" though. We are talking things you can prove, like ground loss, or using faulty track charts for sprint-route relationships. Jerry has been asked here a few times that I can recall about specific figures, and he\'s always responded with an answer, including the reasoning behind the figure given. What more can you ask?
Post Edited (12-23-04 03:39)
CTC-- Frank does use our data.
You won\'t find too much on Allday-- most everything is word of mouth. You can find posts mentioning him here by using the search.
The politics and other stuff is best left for other forums.
CtC,
Not sure why you got so fired up in this chain. But usually you post horseracing opinions (which I seem to never agree with :) )
The anti-Bush,anti-Irag and \"retard\" name calling should be kept to yourself. This isn\'t a political board and there are people who post here who probably are offended by the term \"retard\" as the world is full of mentally handicapped people.
Jerry was clear enough upon that.
The problem was that a charge was leveled against me that I left unanswered for a while and unfortunately you can\'t do that in this P.C. world. If you don\'t defend yourself that kind of garbage can stick, unless you\'re adept at P.C. spin, which I am not, because I reject it outright. If you are adept at putting perceptions over principle then you really can have a retard on your hands and promote it your way. (I\'m sure you can find applications for what I\'ve just said, you needn\'t look much further than the Rag figure error conduct.) It was all related to a some very old tongue in cheek posts that centered around the Japanese buying all our stallions and somehow the conflict in the mid-east wound its way into the nonsense. Which is not all that surprising, because that conflict has very far reaching tentacles.
Are there any other words you would like me to refrain from using Jimbo66?...lol I mean I should know so that I don\'t offend anyone else right? What about \"asskisser\", does that one bother you?...lol I don\'t know, if I was a retard I think I\'d refer to myself as \"mentally challenged\" and then when I heard the insensitive use of the word \"retard\" I would know that it didn\'t apply to me. Maybe it's poor manners, bad grammar and slang that you dislike. That's something we can agree upon, I generally dislike them too, but I despise stupidity most of all.
Well, now Dollase tells us!:
\"He was still a little tender in that area [the day after the Hollywood Futurity],\" his trainer, Craig Dollase, said earlier this week. \"Not pounding on it each day, it should come around fast. We\'ll leave the patch on and let the crack grow out. We\'ll look to challenge Declan\'s Moon again down the road.
http://www.drf.com/news/article/61629.html
Of course, the dilemma is did you believe him then or do you believe him now? Mr Dollase, do you mean to tell us that you ran a horse with an ostensible future on that Hollywood \"track\" with a quarter crack that you \"discovered\" the day before the race? Mr. Dollase, if he\'s really \"still a little tender\", do you consider yourself \"mentally challenged\"?
You have to like the upcoming Malibu. I know its California racing, but a change of surfaces was sorely needed.
An otherwise,
\"Merry Christmas to All\", even Frank, who is finally positioned to at least know how fast horses ran.
CtC
Post Edited (12-24-04 02:49)
Just reading the first sentence of that story gets me feeling good.
The opening day of \"Santa\" Anita always has more than Derby Contenders. I remember two years ago a last race maiden having a winner who went on and did some nice things. His name Southern Image. Also on the undercard there was a 1X sprint that was won by Scrimshaw in 8 and change. Someone I was with remarked \"he beat nothing\". The fading favorite was none other than Ghostzapper.
Because of the racing surface, the weather for training, and more stretch out opportunities, \"The Good Ones\" are going to be rolling out everyday.
You guys lighten up and have some eggnog, I\'m heading to get my DRF, catch a plane, fly into a foot a snow and wait for \"Santa\" to come to town.
And I\'m not thinking of the one with the reindeer.
Merry Christmas.
Post Edited (12-24-04 09:26)