I\'m not seeing any major impact from outside the big three yet, but to this point I haven\'t looked for indications.
No firm and fast decisions yet, but the unavoidable fact is that Hollywood, per usual, is playing to front end types. I\'ve never seen so many :44 and 1:08 fractions. (Little wonder FuSham wired his maiden field last Saturday.) I\'m of the opinion that Wilko ran even better than many think last and that he is superior to DeClan\'s Moon, but he\'s facing DeClan\'s on a very biased home track. Wilko is working well, certainly better than coming into a race off turf past performances and no works, but he hasn\'t shown the types of works DeClan\'s has. That said, Wilko hung pretty close to them in the Juvenile. His one hole and quick run to the first turn could be an advantage or a disadvantage depending on his turn of foot. He did run gamely inside in his last European start. DeClan\'s of course hasn\'t faced two turns yet.
Proud Accolade is an enigma. He scored a huge 2 yr old number in the Champagne and 21 days later, in the B.C., you could figure him to bounce. He\'s back with blinkers trying two turns for the second time. His breeding makes him hard to discount for the Derby. (Its very solid on the dam side.) If hes got a big Derby shot why is he here? Assume that means his connections think he\'s a more viable Two Year old champion than Derby horse. If thats it, is he ready to fire large?
They are low odds horses, but its a very interesting race.
CtC
Post Edited (12-16-04 23:04)
>Proud Accolade-Assume that means his connections think he\'s a more viable Two Year old champion than Derby horse. If thats it, is he ready to fire large?
The connections also stand the sire, so it would be a big boost in the sires resume. Who by the way was transfered to Ky this year to stand for 25K. (Call it the Lukas line (lol))
This is an exciting race because it decides an Eclipse, and it screams
DDDDDEEEEEEERRRRRBBBBYYYY
I thik it\'s going to be very difficult to find any value in this race.
1. Wilko won the BC in an upset, but many foreign runners do not duplicate their form second off the plane. He also may not be 100% given reports today.
2. Proud Accolade ran a disaapointing effort in the BC, and IMO he was not best in the Champagne. He got the jump on Afleet Alex in a moderate/slow paced race. IMO Afleet Alex was best that day. He\'s good on his best day, but what will he do here?
3. Declan\'s Moon is undefeated, but his reputation comes mostly from beating Roman Ruler in a very fast time when that one was considered the early leader of the division. Roman Ruler has since disappointed. Perhaps RR is just not as sharp as he was, but perhaps he was overrated to begin with. The Hollywood Prevue was a useful prep against mediocre horses (maiden graduates finished
2nd and 3rd). Probable sold favorite at post time. Derserves favoritism, but IMO not a bet at short odds. He\'s hyped a bit and this is 1st time 2 turns.
4. Bushwacker is actually sort of interesting in that he improved sharply 2nd time out and has since worked like he\'s ready for an even better effort. You have to sort of wonder if he\'s going to want this distance. At a sprint, I might have considered using him at a big price to pull off an upset.
5. Southern Africa and the rest are banking on some of the better horses putting in disappointing efforts (certainly not impossible) or a big move forward.
I see this as a race to watch and not to bet.
Wilko has a foot problem......
i won\'t bet it. PA is completely cranked, and we have a horse and two humans trying to lock up eclipses here (not sure the horse knows it though). wilko is still a mystery to me. i have a suspicion the LS surface favored speed on BC day, and helped carry this guy along. i guess the same could happen at Hol though. declan has been my favorite 2 yr old since his first start. speedy works, and he should get a nice stalking trip. rooting for declan, but won\'t bet him at low odds. i will stick with him through next year though, even if he comes up a bit short tomorrow.
Post Edited (12-17-04 19:19)
ctc,
velazquez has taken the mount on afleet alex for next year. maybe pletcher and cordero see PA as a better one turn horse?
Didn\'t do it as ROTW, but there is a contrarian position available in that race. At a price, even if you protect underneath the faster ones.
Tell you what, I\'ll give Friedman credit for sticking his neck out on a slow horse pattern read in the Ladies. Have to say though, sounds from his comments like they have several fillies looking quite different.
I\'m going home now.
If you are looking for value, what about Giacomo?
He has a nice line and could improve enough to win this if PA or Wilco don\'t repeat their tops (and they both could be over the top).
Best of all, he may be a huge price.
Of course, MS could also waste a big effort with his typical 3w3w ride....
Good luck.
Chris
I liked Afleet Alex in the Breeders Cup and lost a significant bet. I miss spoke earlier about PA\'s pedigree. Somehow I was considering only the Septieme Ciel part of the dam side. He comes from an unaccomplished recent female pedigree. Its still not bad, but in my opinion he\'s not a Derby horse and thats why he\'s in the Futurity.
Pletcher may be able to pull it off, but if he does he\'s overcoming the following:
A less than stellar effort in his first two turn effort off a previous big race (Caveat, that Champagne was still the big number, (Not looking at TGraph));
A rare trip West that you have to suspect wouldn\'t have been made if he won the Juvenile;
A strip which so favors speed, Pletcher opted for blinkers. (This horse was undefeated coming into the B.C. Juvenile, was he really doing anything wrong?)
I just get the distinct impression, that circumstance have plotted PA\'s entry and not planning. That doesn\'t mean PA can\'t win, but this is not a \"picked spot\". For DeClan\'s it is.
The same can be said of Wilco. Why is he here? He\'s the B.C.Juvenile winner. Why is he running? He just popped a quarter crack, the track has been under intense scrutiny for safety considerations. (Horses are breaking down on it) Is it too hard? Is it too fast? Is the prudent thing to do to run Wilco on a patch for a crack he developed at Hollywood? I don\'t get it. He\'s had some good horses, but I am not a big fan of Dollase.
Then you have DeClan\'s probably going off at darn near even money despite never seeing two turns. TGJB appears to think there may be others with chances and thats what I\'ve been looking at since last night. I\'ll chime in when my thoughts coalesce.
CtC
Post Edited (12-17-04 20:26)
Also that Wilco LS BC number is so out of wack w/ previous demonstrated ability that it might be an aboration . Not to say Wilco\'s a one number Pony but it could be a while before we see that type of performance out of him - such a big forward move unsupported by pattern and previous numbers can and do very often take quite a bit out of a horse . If Wilco even makes it to race as a 3 year old , his line dosn\'t seem to be going anywhere ...
\"Wilko\" moved up on dirt is the way I read that. I don\'t think theres anyway you can say the effort was out of line with his priors. He\'s always been a decent horse and they said he really seemed to like his dirt drills. He wouldn\'t be the first that woke up on a switch of surfaces. He could regress. I just don\'t know how you say that without numbers to do so on. I like him, I just don\'t like the circumstances. Different trainer, different jockey. This quarter crack business is probably the last straw to keep me from betting on him.
Every horse has a knock against him and a case can be made for some of them too. I\'m too confused to bet this race. I might take a shot with a couple outside the big three if I could isolate one of the big three. The problem is, I can\'t isolate one of the three.
I\'m gonna watch suspecting Wilko is the best, but I\'m not willing to take 5-2 on that in the circumstances.
Post Edited (12-18-04 00:04)
\"He\'s always been a decent horse...\".
\"He wouldn\'t be the first that woke up on a switch of surfaces.\"
I might have thought these statements were contradictory had I not known Wilko\'s last performance figure was better than Ouija Board\'s Arc number (and F&M number).
Wilko ran a bunch of steady Turf sprints (around -11) and then ran a Dirt 3. Thats a seven/eight point improvement, but can you really compare Turf to Dirt? I don\'t equate Turf figures with Dirt figures is what I was trying to say and I do think Wilko was a useful horse on Turf. Theres other factors as well. I think to say the Breeders Cup took too much out of him is hard to do in the circumstances.
Is the first Dirt effort, even vastly improved from Turf efforts, an indication that a taxing effort upon the new surface was given? That said, I make his dirt effort a little better than others. Cigar was a decent Turf horse, but he was in a whole different league on Dirt.
If Wilko gets beat it may be on a large B.C. effort, but he also could be vunerable on track bias, the connection changes and the quarter crack. Those factors trouble me more than his B.C. effort being out of line with his turf efforts. 2\'s didn\'t bother Afleet Alex much and 3\'s didn\'t hurt Roman Ruler until he had to duplicate them at two turns.
If you don\'t take Wilko, who do you take? Proud Accolade on a two turn failure trying to run with Bushwacker? DeClan\'s Moon (Conqueror of Roman Ruler) trying two turns for the first time at about even money? Maybe one of the three amigos Giacomo/Bushwacker/Southern Africa?
Someone is going to win and it\'s going to be an interesting race, but I\'m going to watch it.
CtC
Post Edited (12-18-04 05:06)
I'm going to play for Giacomo provided the price is right. Proud Accolade clearly reacted to the huge effort at Belmont on short rest in the BC. I think he'll move back toward that top but I'd be surprised if he paired it. Wilko's race in the BC was a substantial effort and I can easily seem him moving backward off that race. The fact he popped a quarter yesterday leaves more questions for me – the first sign of the stress? I've made a career out of playing against horses like Declan's Moon in spots like this. He may be good enough to beat me but if he does it will likely be at a bad price. He also faces a tough pace scenario here in my estimation. Like Class, I would have thought seriously about Bushwacker in a sprint but to my mind he'll still play a critical role here on or near the front end. Giacomo has a healthy line and I give him more of a chance to move forward here than the Thoro-Pattern suggests. He has two two-turn routes under his belt and the last was a decent race. The winner came back to win the Jackpot and the second place horse also returned to win. The pace of the race was decent but the top two were able to gallop along before really hooking up midway on the turn on a track that in my estimation was carrying speed. I know Hollywood has been speed favoring as a rule and the same could be true today but there are a lot of questions in my mind about all three major contenders and I think the pace scenario will advantage a horse like Giacomo. I think he'll improve a few lengths here. I'll play Giacomo to win and under Proud Accolade and Wilko in case either fire their best shot. Shop some around Giacomo in the pick four as well.
Good luck to all if you play.
I like that analysis and I agree that Texcess and the other horse tend to indicate Giacomo\'s effort wasn\'t bad. He\'s also carried the weight. The two that DeClan\'s beat are having to run at equal weights this time and that could hard for them to overcome even if they improve. I just have trouble applying the \"Key Race\" theory to a third place horse moving up to a Grade I, but the top three all have question marks, two year olds improve this time of year and these are relatively lightly raced Two Year Olds.
Theres a lot of logic in that bet Two, my problem is I really do try to pick winners and I\'m not getting the good feeling for any in this race. (Someones got to win it right?...lol) I think Wilko is the best horse, but theres too many variables for me to conclude he\'ll be the best horse this afternoon. The quarter crack created that last straw of doubt. He\'s gonna be a short price, all three of them are. I don\'t like the track right now either.
Good Luck
CTC,
One thing I forgot to note above - Shirreffs is going well of late and getting a high percentage of pairs and tops. He also gets 40% new tops from 2yo\'s this time of year according to the figure based patterns (albeit from a relatively small sample.) The biggest question is even if he does fire will it be enough? Price will dictate that answer as to whether or not it\'s worth as play.
There are a number of considerations in picking ROTW, including fan interest (we\'re trying to attract new people) and location-- we haven\'t done a California race for a while. Also, we have to pick the race early in the week off probables in order to meet the ad deadline for the DRF.
PA ran miserable in the BC, don\'t know if blinkers makes a difference, but willing to bet against. Don\'t like Wilko, as it seems the BC race collapsed to me (my own view, as it doesn\'t seem to say so in the T-Graph figures, Wilko got a nice figure). HAve to bet against Declan\'s Moon as the even money or so favorite, trying two turns, even though he is bred for it. IF the price is right, I think you can make a case that Bushwacker could get loose on the lead here. Would like Bushwacker more if PA weren\'t adding blinkers, but I still think he is quite a bit quicker. I see the possibility where PA and DEclan are trying to wrestle for position behind Bushwacker and Rene Douglas works out a reasonable pace up front. His breeding doesn\'t \"scream\" two turns, but at 7-1 or more, (which seems likely), I will take a shot on him. Wouldn\'t bet him at Churchill or Belmont, but on a Hollywood strip which has been kind to speed lately, he could be a value play.
Good luck
Normally I don\'t like to discuss races we are charging for (for better or worse), but Alan and I both discussed the race on different radio shows today, so...
I agree with you that the approach should center around the vulnerability of the fast favorites-- while there is a good chance one and maybe two will fire, my approach is to look for a solid horse who will fire and be a price. Giacomo has 2 solid 2 turn figures that make him clearly faster than any but the top 3, isn\'t shipping, and actually has some blue sky-- he\'s only run three times, and the first one doesn\'t really count, so he could improve. Additionally, he\'s completely concealed, coming off a third in a nw1x. Win bet, protect under the fast ones.
nice posts on giacomo guys, a very good stab at the odds. DM was tugging all the way. they have to teach this horse how to rate. i will stick strongly with this guy through his quest for the TC though. they finished in just over :06 for final half furlong, DC was not tiring, giac just ran very well. DC is bred to run for miles and miles, as soon as they teach him how to relax a bit, i think he has a chance of heading into the KD undefeated. again though, well done taking a shot with giac, i hope you guys cashed on the exacta....
Post Edited (12-18-04 20:08)
and now we know why JR dumped PA for AA. PA is clearly a one turn horse (could be a great one at that).
One comment about Declan\'s Moon-- it\'s not only a question of ability of the horse. How many Ellis horses have we seen that showed ability early in their careers, and didn\'t go on? He is very hard on them-- very few end up developing into sound horses that can stand a campaign.
The second finisher is a little interesting...
Two and Jerry,
Very nice analysis. I figure that cashing at about 5-1, even with the spreading. Good Work.
ctc
Post Edited (12-18-04 19:34)
in my opinion, the second place finisher got the perfect setup, and ran very well. i do not like his chances going much longer in the big ones however, as he will most likely be forced to run wide in big fields. i do not think he is all that well bred to run much longer either. declan has nice tactical speed that needs to be harnessed, but will be used very effectively in the big races..... again though jerry, you handicapped that race very nicely.
I just bet him to win and used him for second, which meant I needed that photo, and still only got 3-1. Lousy price on that exacta.
And Michael, I agree with you about the second finisher in big fields-- if Smith stays on him.
ctc,
don\'t mean to be a grinch here, but two said he makes a career betting against horses like DM, and tossed the horse completely.
Thanks Grinch - and at those odds my career has been and will continue. Another prime example of a horse I rated no better than 3/1 that beat me at horrible odds. I\'ll see him again another day - or another one like him. You ducked - thanks for the redboard.
TGJB wrote,
>Normally I don\'t like to discuss races we are charging for (for better or worse), but Alan and I both discussed the race on different radio shows today, so...
You did a Radio Show, I thought those types of things caused stress, or at least so I heard. (lol)
Also there are several good handicappers on this Board (not me) but the real EF Hutton is Derby 1592.
two,
no duck, just no bet on a bad race. my only pre-race comment was that DM is my top two yr old horse for next year, obviously meaning i though he was getting the two turns. the odds were very low on DM, i didn\'t think it was a betting race. i have already posted on about four or five races today. i was simply correcting a post from ctc that was completely incorrect, sorry you were in the middle (and this is definitely my last post on the subject, sorry for cluttering the board).
Post Edited (12-18-04 20:28)
Two,
Hope you reconsidered with DeClan\'s atop Giacomo. Losing is easy to do in this game, even when you have made some very solid think work.
Of the three favorites, I really felt PA was the most vunerable and that Wilko was best, if he ran his race. I\'m not so sure he didn\'t run his race, which opens up alot issues. Wilko was as close or closer than I could have hoped, so he sure seemed to have been ready to go. The time was good. There was a 1:20 7mark and a 1:02, 5.5 mark race...lol (Gonna defer to TGraph here, that track bothers me.) Wilko just got nipped by a horse that in all likelihood improved. I think the top three are all pleased with their horses efforts. DeClan\'s remains undefeated and is the Two Year Old Champion. Other than that I\'m not sure much was determined today, other than the results, on their face, don\'t support my contention that wide was very bad on B.C. day and at first blush they lend further credence to TGraph\'s B.C. Numbers.
Oh, one other thing was validated. Hollywood Park would make an ideal mobile home park.
CtC
just returned from betting.....tooooo goooood!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
TGJB and Allen, nice call. Had I not gone for the super, I would\'ve done better than 8-5, but I\'ll take it. raz
jimbo,
saddle slipped on b\'wacker. douglas tried to recover, but i think all hope was lost. i like the pedigree, more for turf though. keep an eye on this guy going 8f to 9f on turf.
Declan ran well. He deserved to be the favorite in this field, but IMO was not bettable at this price. Had there been someone in there of reasonable quality that wasn\'t \"suspect\" for one reason or another, he might have been a good bet against.
This was the perfect scenario for me.
Personally, I don\'t think he has shown enough ability to be wildly enthusiastic about his triple crown prospects. He\'s good and has a chance, but he\'s nothing special. I don\'t think it will be all that difficult for someone to move past him this spring. I\'m also still suspicious of his ability to get 10F. He does not look like a horse that wants to relax and get 10F to me.
However, now that he\'s the undefeated Eclipse Award winner (and will be hyped to death), that virtually guarantees at least two betting opportunities for 2005. The first one will be the first time he\'s spotted poorly (for whatever reason) and the second time will be the race right after that because \"they\'ll\" give him at least one more chance at short odds.
Class, Declan\'s is the horse that \"don\'t get no respect\". I tend to agree with you, even though he\'s done nothing wrong.
He figured to run well here despite the first try around two turns and he did, beating Wilko head to head in the race.
The rubber will meet the road at Arcadia or New Orleans, or Cincinnati when the others aren\'t pressing for the race and DeClan\'s isn\'t positioned to deal all the cards.
CtC
Post Edited (12-18-04 21:22)
yea smith sucks, he is the reason that piece of crap giacomo at 15/1 got such a bad trip and did not win. friggen jockey stiffed me again
A couple things happened that might influence you to believe it could be a different story if run again or run on another track. The top three all have futures for the time being.
CtC
where can i get a futures bet down on chris to take the championship in vegas? .....
seriously, good luck matey. you have accomplished enough already, but i would love to see you take it all!!
SC-- you have a very good memory. And yes, I almost never do \"live\"-- I covered a couple of times for Alan on the L.A. show when he was on vacation, and I did yesterday because I\'ve been friends with Dave Johnson for a long time, and he was doing a one shot with cable radio in hopes of it becoming a regular gig. I HATE it. And it showed at the Expo.
But if you get another show, I\'ll do it. Once.
And even without the trouble, you can\'t be faulted for taking a lightly raced longshot against vulnerable favorites, Jimbo.
I don\'t know to many people who would consider a 10 + pt top \"moving up\" . It\'s probably more like \"up and out\" ... Assuming that you do use speed figures , and in very general terms , do you feel this type of forward move (and after so many races even w/ surface change) is detrimental to a horse\'s developmental curve and is at the very least suspect for the horse\'s future prospects ?
Just curious if you had a pre race opinion on the 8th @ Hollywood ? In the 6th I like a tough pattern horse who is presently the longest shot in the field - Tizawinner . I like the horse w/ the buried number in the 7th - Dog Day\'s and the second favorite in the Starlet - Sharp Lisa ...
Post Edited (12-19-04 21:50)
Silver Charm you are much too kind as I can assure you that I get humbled by this game just as ofen as the next guy.
But thanks nonetheless.
Chris
P.S. Also thanks to Michael D. I will definitely need all the luck I can get...
TGJB that promise alone is enough to tempt me out of retirement.
We only lasted three Derby\'s but they were not only fun, but so far ahead of the curve it was scary. Eclipse quality writers like Jennie Rees were guests, Blue-Chip handicappers such as Marty McGee and Dave Litfin, World Class Trainers like D Wayne Lukas and Paul McGee. We introduced Thorograph at a point in time where most SHEET users outside of New York and LA were considered lepers. After going thru an explanation of how ground loss is calculated, weight carried differentials factored in and wind into the numbers, I ran into a good friend the very next day who said, \"I always knew those Beyers were wrong\". No Joke.
After two $600 Triples the first year (Early Times and Derby) a \"I guarantee it on Silver Charm\" and that Triple \"Cold\" our luck ran out but then again maybe not. The next year is when I met Thorograph and Wayne. I had to get up at 4:30 AM for a week to lock him up. You TGJB I promised booze and starlets, you still wouldn\'t come on. It was that stress thing. You sent TGAB instead and he picked Cape Town, I sure he didn\'t bet Victory Gallop at 10-1(lol). He shouldn\'t have been concerned the only two listeners were my Mom and Dad and when they left town we had to cancel the show because we lost 100% of our listening audience.
This is really a fun time of year. There are some smart guys on this Board. Pedigree experts, trip experts, angle-guys, figure guys. I\'m sure by the first Saturday in May we will have it all broken down quite well. I know last year we did.
My radio days are over and because I will be so busy I won\'t able to participate as much if at all during the day. The next time you will see or here from me or my Boss, is over the airwaves on CNBC or something similar.
I think my horse this year is Consolidator, if you know what I mean.
Silver Charm wrote:
> I think my horse this year is Consolidator, if you know what I
> mean.
lol
You can\'t pick a horse this early off a fourth in the Breeders Cup. Although Michael D. has been high on DeClan\'s since his maiden win. If DeClan\'s nails down the Derby thats gotta be an all time early backing.
You and Wayne Lukas,
lol
You can always rate them at this time. Heres mine:
1. The Servis Horse (forget his name)
2. Galloping Grocer
3. Afleet Alex
4. Texcess
5. DeClan\'s Moon
6. Wilko
7. Giacomo
8. Sun King
9. Straight Line, but i think hes on the shelf
10. Patriot Act
Thats an early list, gonna be lots of changes and I think we are gonna see some jump up this year that aren\'t known yet. Surprise, surprise.
CtC
CTC,
>If DeClan\'s nails down the Derby thats gotta be an all time early backing.<
I claim that award as thinking Seattle Slew was something special after his debut. Then again I said the same thing at least 5-6 times since then and I don\'t think any of them even made it to the triple crown. :-)
class,
well, i\'m in on declan (after just one race). i will put up a list, as silver charm did. i do it every year. the last two have not been all that great, to say the least.
Michael,
Most years, I have no opinion at all at this stage because most of the horses that have shown any promise are not likely to be 10F horses. I don\'t think that was as true many years ago.
If I gave an opinion now it would be no better than throwing a dart at a list of horses with a good pedigree, from a decent barn, that perhaps showed a little bit more promise in the early routes vs sprints (maybe a debut at a route).
I\'ll form some opinions very quickly as soon as the very earliest 2005 route preps are run.
I\'ve been one of the more anti-Declan voices, but I really don\'t have any major problems with him. It\'s just when you move to the top of division and everyone can see your pluses, I immediately start looking for flaws because I want to cash some bets. He looks vulnerable to me.
Fellas-- look at the last 10 or so Derby winners, and where they were at this point in their careers. Even SJ-- who tipped his hand earlier than most-- was still pretty much a Philly Park horse (one inner track win, I think).
On TVG yesterday, Lyons and Bray were asked, \"is there such a thing as a good bet at 50-1 in the future book right now\". Answer from both-- they would want 50-1 on a horse STARTING in the Derby from here.
I\'m with them. Nothing wrong with making lists-- it\'s that time of year-- but the ones doing well in big races to this point are seldom the ones making noise in May.
And the following from a man that in all likelihood has some of the most discerning future bets placed or about to be placed. :)
Be honest Jerry, you needn\'t tell us who, but: \"Do you have any futures...YET\"?...lol
TGJB wrote:
> Fellas-- look at the last 10 or so Derby winners, and where
> they were at this point in their careers. Even SJ-- who tipped
> his hand earlier than most-- was still pretty much a Philly
> Park horse (one inner track win, I think).
>
> On TVG yesterday, Lyons and Bray were asked, \"is there such a
> thing as a good bet at 50-1 in the future book right now\".
> Answer from both-- they would want 50-1 on a horse STARTING in
> the Derby from here.
>
> I\'m with them. Nothing wrong with making lists-- it\'s that time
> of year-- but the ones doing well in big races to this point
> are seldom the ones making noise in May.
>
>
Post Edited (12-21-04 02:17)
CTC-- I wouldn\'t go into futures this early unless I was getting REALLY big odds, and nobody is willing to risk taking that kind of hit. In general, it\'s getting tougher and tougher to get future bets down. The parimutuel pool is okay, but your options are limited.
Top 5 out of those that I have seen..
1. Rockport Harbor- Huge race last out but the injury during the race may cause him problems in getting to Kentucky.
2. Fusachi Samurai- Impressive first out, a good fit for Drysdale.
3. Wilko
4. Galloping Grocer
5. Better than Bonds
However I couldn\'t tell you who I would play in the Future Book pool 1 in a few months.
Best Wishes,
xichibanx