TGJB had sunday silence running a \"6.25\" in his derby win. TGJB had unbridled running a \"4\" in his derby win. TGJB has storm flag flying running a \"2\" in her 10f win this year. how many of you think SFF, in her 2004 form, was more than eight lengths faster at 10f than sunday silence in his 1989 form. how many of you think SFF, in her 2004 form, was four lengths faster at 10f than unbridled, in his 1990 form? just curious.
personally, if we could get sunday silence in his \'89 form on the track with storm flag flying in her summer \'04 form in a 10f race, and i could take SS knowing that he only had to come within eight lengths of SFF to cash, i would bet everything i own.
and TGJB,
i bring up SFF to be fair here, because as you know, i once criticized len for missing a variant on SFF.
Those are types of comparisons that lead one to believe that even if horses are getting faster they aren\'t getting faster at the same rate as the figures.
IMHO, there is an upward bias in the figures related to pace and competitive quality issues as I\'ve described in the past.
It doesn\'t matter though because the bias (assuming I am correct) is so slow moving it doesn\'t impact the handicapping process. It only impacts intergenerational comparisons.
class,
for the first two paragraphs, yes exactly. for the last, a tougher issue. that is why some most of these issues are best solved at the windows (or with pre-race posts). if it is only the longer race #\'s that are being made too fast though, and the shorter race and middle distance #\'s are about correct (ie today\'s horses are bred more for speed than stamina than in the past) then we could have some handicapping issues. don\'t you agree?
You theory about long and short distances is logical based on breeding trends etc....
However, my personal observations do not support it. There have been some recent high quality horses that were versatile enough to compete on a similar level at various distances and their figures did not vary all that much from distance to distance.
I don\'t know of anyone that has had to make a major shift in their parallel time charts in order to keep figures consistent. To my knowledge sprint and route relationships have not changed much.
If fewer track records are falling at longer distances it\'s because they run the very best horses at those distances much less often.
I would need some evidence of horses\'s figures moving in predictable ways when they change distance to believe everyone\'s figures are off.
Post Edited (12-13-04 16:33)
By the way, this is one of the advantages of being a classhandicapper. By that I do not mean a classhandicapper in the traditional sense - as in looking as class designations.
I mean knowing exactly how various unrelated classes fit together (claiming vs. allowance, open vs. statebred, shippers, 3yos vs. older at various times of the year etc...) and digging deep into the actual races to see if the specific field was strong or weak for the designation and how well individual horses ran.
It\'s a subjective skill that when done properly eliminates many of the accuracy and methodology issues of speed figures.
I like to do both because they usually reinforce each other, but sometimes they conflict. It is well worth knowing when they conflict because those highly rates horses on speed figures that don\'t stack up on class don\'t hold up nearly as well as those that do.
Given 2 horses that are similar on speed figures and odds, I\'ll take the one that was competitive in the tougher field every time.
Given 2 horses that have similar looking performances against the same class and I\'ll take the one with faster speed figures every time.
Post Edited (12-13-04 16:48)
ok, we an disagree on that. if i could convince you though, do a bit of research on the breed of today\'s thoroughbred. roman\'s has a good book, and there are plenty of others out there.
michael,
I certanly agree with you on the breeding aspect of this. That\'s why it\'s so logical that you would be right.
Michael, you make a compelling case with the Sunday Silence, Storm Flag Flying illustration, but lets look at that a little more closely.
First of all, do you remember that 1989 Derby? They ran the race in 2:05. The track was a quagmire. I know Easy Goer didn\'t like that surface and I\'m not so sure Sunday Silence was fond of it, I just think he got over it better than Goer. The rest of that crop (at that time) were pretty much ham and eggers is my recollection. Sunday Silence was no whiz kid at 10 marks. He staggered in the stretch of the Derby. He staggered in the stretch of the Swaps and got run down by Prized. He lost to Criminal Type at the distance. He caught an absolutely wicked surface at Hallandale for the Classic and just managed to hold on.
Storm Flag flying\'s dam is My Flag. Thats Easy Goer and Personal Ensign. To my knowledge, she only had one chance to run at 10 marks. I think she was better at that distance than you give her credit for. I guess the question is would 2004 SFF beat 1989 Easy Goer and Sunday Silence? We\'ll never know. I know that if I was continueing to make figures, they would probably NOT be cross generational. Personally, I don\'t think the base data can provide for cross generational comparisions. All that really matters is that the figures separate horses for handicappers NOW. I know I could not rely upon the Rags for that determination.
Post Edited (12-13-04 21:27)
ctc,
some good points about sunday silence. i can tell from your tone that you were an easy goer fan, i was as well. that was right around the time i started watching the game closely, and easy goer was my first hero. sunday silence did run a pretty fast preakness. he also ran 2:00.1 in the BC, but as you say, that track was awful quick. his last 10f race was against criminal type, and he lost by a head, but still finished in 1:59.4. the horse was no secretariat, but he was pretty tough going a route..... rags gave his derby the same # as TGJB, i have to imagine they both have it right. the problem is SSF\'s 10f race. rags has it much slower than TG, and i\'m pretty sure all other figure makers don\'t have it fast either (i will check that). ctc, you make some good points, but i like sunday silence over SFF getting the eight lengths even more now.
Post Edited (12-13-04 19:43)
and ctc,
i am also a SSF fan, i picked her in my pre-race post going 10f against azeri. i was pretty sure that race was going to collapse. she just didn\'t run all that fast that day. and again, TGJB did some pretty good variant work with SSF\'s sheet early in her career, finding a relatively fast race when most all other figure makers missed it.
Post Edited (12-13-04 20:12)
Well,
I was a Sunday Silence fan who also admired Easy Goer. I don\'t think Sunday Silence was as \"suspect\" at 10F as you say CtC, but I agree it probably was not his best distance.
It is hard to imagine betting on SFF giving 8 lengths to Sunday Silence at any distance.
It is only 15 years of elapsed time too, so it isn\'t like comparing a 1950\'s Home run hitter with a modern day home run hitter.
Without any mathematical calculations and purely instinctual reaction, I would say it is nearly impossible that SFF is 8 lengths faster than Sunday Silence.
But I can\'t prove it!
Jerry said its a 2, I\'m gonna defer entirely to that judgement. SFF carried the weight, she went wide. I think the track was tiring and they came home slow after setting very legitimate fractions. 2:03\'s can be very good times at Saratoga and it looks like that was a good time that day.
Sunday Silence won one other race at 10 marks. The Super Derby. He beat Belated Earl. He obviously had Goer\'s number, but he was suspect at 10 marks. I still think if Goer had a more aggressive rider the 3-1 margin would have been in his favor not Sunday\'s. Distance is what obviously separated them. Goer needed to run a little farther or be ridden more aggressively.
CtC
How in the world can a horse that wins the Kentucky Derby, the Super Derby, and the BC Classic be considered \"suspect\" at 10 panels? That is comical actually. What about the Preakness? Another 1/2 furlong was not going to get Easy Goer by that day either.
Post Edited (12-14-04 05:33)
\"how many of you think SFF, in her 2004 form, was more than eight lengths faster at 10f than sunday silence in his 1989 form. how many of you think SFF, in her 2004 form, was four lengths faster at 10f than unbridled, in his 1990 form? just curious.\"
I believe it as much as I have to. It\'s Jerry\'s database, and I know he cares about it. He\'s looked at every race at every track every day for a long time. He\'s given some plausible explanations. I can\'t see any profit motive in his \"findings.\" I would bet Jerry remembered something about making the Unbridled figure when he made the SFFlying figure. He sees what he sees. Maybe on a 30 year scale, Unbridled was a little slow and SFF is fast.
HP
>the problem is SSF\'s 10f race. rags has it much slower than TG, and i\'m pretty sure all other figure makers don\'t have it fast either (i will check that). <
I did not study TG\'s, Rag\'s, Beyer\'s, or Logic\'s figure for that race. However....
This was probably another in a long list of races where the pace killed the front runner and a mediocre horse got up for the win. Then, rather than assigning the winner with the mediocre figure it deserved and the dueler(s) with a lower figure than usual because it was used up by the pace, the dueler(s) was given its typical figure - which is faster than it deserved. That results in an inflated figure for the winner.
This is one reason why not looking at the impact of pace and the increased competitiveness of better fields when you are making projections leads to faster and faster speed figures over time.
This was the Azeri race isn\'t it? If so this pace ws obvious.
I could see a GREAT older filly being better than top 3yos in spring, but SFF is a mediocre/good older filly and there\'s no way that her 10F race was \"much much better\" than Easy Goer and Sunday Silence who were both above average. IMO, this a silly conversation. No Way!
Post Edited (12-14-04 11:33)
Not ony that, but I was at Gulfstrean for the BC and Sunday Silence won under a strong hand ride. Day beat the hell out of Easy Goer and couldn\'t get there.
Sunday Silence was more tractable, had better short distance acceleration, and handled turns better. Those are intangibles that don\'t show up in figures but often decide races when horses have similar ability.
Easy Goer beat Sunday Silence at his home track, where there are big sweeping turns, at 12 furlongs, on a deep and tiring surface that \"if anything\" was favoring closers on the outside all day.
Post Edited (12-14-04 09:24)
CtC,
This reminds me of your discussion of this year\'s 3-year old class. I respect your opinion, but there really are times when the view is not supported by any kind of facts.
I know there are a lot of Easy Goer fans out there and I respect \"fans\" of this game. But the FACTS are that Sunday Silence beat him three out of four. And, the one time time Easy Goer won, it was his home track at a distance that is rarely run in the US on dirt. I have been hearing crying for years about Pat Day\'s ride in the Preakness and the sloppy track in the Derby and the speed favoring track in the BC Classic, but all that really does is prove the point that Sunday Silence was more versatile. Surface, distance, bias aside, he was a better horse than Easy Goer.
It really borders on ridiculous that you call Sunday Silence \"questionable at the distance\" and you in earlier posts you don\'t find Lion Heart queationable at the distance. Can that logic possibly be right?
if you were to put sunday silence in a race against lion heart at 10f, you must be getting at least ten lengths from TG #\'s if you take SS.......... a lot of different opinions out there about SS and EG, and most of the discussions turn heated. EG had real bad legs, right from the start. if day had ridden him harder, would he have lasted so long, and run so many brilliant races after the derby? in my opinion, if you put them on a track together, side by side, EG would have beaten SS at any distance. but that is not what horse racing is. big horse races usually involve a lot of horses, and most of the races are run over small 1m ovals that just didn\'t fit EG\'s frame and style. given what US horse racing is all about, sunday silence was the clear winner in the battle.
Post Edited (12-14-04 12:50)
Would love to get 10 lengths from Lionheart with Sunday Silence. These \"cross generational\" comparisons do tend to support your case Michael. At least those comparisons in the last 20 years, I have trouble going past 15-20 years and viewing the comparisons as legitimate.
the older generation stuff it tough. TG does not have figs on some of the greats i bring up (\'bid for example), but given his posts, and his figs from \'81 up, he clearly believes that there has been a generational improvement in the breed over the years, and the improvemet is across the board, at all distances. i repsect the TG product as much as anyone, but i can\'t buy this theory when it extends to the races 10f and up.
Briefly, I have work to do:
1-- You can always challenge an individual figure that someone assigned, especially one run at an unusual distance (like 1 1/4). I think I got the SSF figure right, but that\'s not the point, which is...
2-- Michael, you did not compare SS and SSF to get to your 8 lengths. You compared ONE race run by one against ONE by the other. Not only was SS\'s Derby run in a lake, but he was a spring 3yo. SSF was an older mare, on her best day. We have found, looking at tens of thousands of examples (see the average sire stats) that horses as a group improve about 3 points from 3 to 4, and another point after that, on average. From spring 3yo top to older top, therefore, improvement would average about 6 points (2/3 of the 3yo year), so you would figure a top older male running at the point SSF ran that figure would be about 6 points faster than a top spring 3yo. On the other hand, SSF is a filly, which the same studies show us average 3 points slower than colts. So on balance, she would figure to be 3 points faster (6 lengths at this distance), if they were equivalent against their divisions. And this has nothing to do with generational improvement.
But again, you didn\'t choose them both on their best day. You chose an off race for SS even during that spring-- he ran significantly better both before and after.
Point being, bad comparison. Nobody here said \"Storm Flag Flying is 8 lengths better than Sunday Silence\".
>Point being, bad comparison. Nobody here said \"Storm Flag Flying is 8 lengths better than Sunday Silence\".<
Your points are well taken.
In my comments I noted that SS and EG were spring 3yos.
However, SSF is at best a mediocre older filly. She barely beat Azeri after that one used herself up in a 109 and change duel at a distance she doesn\'t even want.
EG and SS may have been spring 3yos, but they were above average ones. There is no way I am going to believe that SSF\'s race at 10F puts her on the same planet as SS and EG during that spring let alone capable of beating them.
Post Edited (12-14-04 14:43)
The Derby was weak, SS caught his track at Hallandale. He staggered everywhere else. Actually, he got punch drunk in the Derby too. He\'s sired some to run 10 marks, but not here. Not dirt. You don\'t remember Pat Day\'s remarks it seems, but his remarks weren\'t necessary to explain a couple of those races.
CH,
You might want to watch that Classic again closely. I think SS was a whip sulker if I\'m not mistaken. Similar to Northern Dancer.
CtC
SS would get devoured by todays TBreds...Goer would have a chance, depending on the track.
CtC,
This year\'s Cardinals baseball team would have crushed the 1989 A\'s team. However, this year\'s Redsox team would have not shot against the 89 A\'s.
The Panthers of 2003 would have crushed the Steel Curtain Steelers of the 70\'s. But the Pats of 2003 had not shot.
And, Goer could compete today, but Sunday Silence would be devoured.
CTC,
It\'s possible that SS didn\'t like the whip but that doesn\'t change the fact that he won under a hand ride that wasn\'t all that vigorous while Day was all out and couldn\'t get there.
Easy Goer fans will deny reality forever.
:-)
Sunday was all out to catch and run down Blushing John. McCarron stated he was doing all he could possibly do. The track carried John a long way. They were in a life and death battle and one jump past the wire Goer was in front five jumps. SS won, thats what counts. The best horse doesn\'t always win, sometimes circumstances determine the winner. Its races like those that separate handicappers and I respect those that bet S.S. with conviction on The B.C. The bias, Goers bad break and Pat Day were the difference. Bottom line, there was little value in betting that matchup. Although I did have the Belmont large and straight and was positive Goer would win easily. Bet very lightly on the Derby due to the conditions.
Which brings up one other issue. War Emblem never had a chance, but its interesting to note that both Funny Cide and Smarty Jones were ambushed by horses that finished in front of them in the Belmont. All\'s fair in fair horseracing, but I think there should be a disincentive for horses to run in the Derby, skip the Preakness and reappear in the Belmont. Maybe an \"incentive\" is the way to prevent it. I\'m thinking a \"bonus\" for the aggregate placings in all three races. You can skip the Preakness, but you get no \"bonus\" points if you do. As a matter of fact you lose \"2\" points. That\'d do it.
Breed some stamina into these horses or lessen the reward.
CtC
Post Edited (12-14-04 21:47)
TGJB,
i was comparing sunday silence\'s form at the time he ran the derby, to storm flag flying\'s form at the time she ran at the spa this summer, i made that very clear (you chose to ignore that in your reply). people who posted saw SS run, are well aware that we are talking about his three yr old form, and they know when the derby is run. it\'s just a matter of opinion, and a few of us would bet everything we own that sunday silence, on the day of his derby run, would not get beat by SSF (in her \'04 spa form) by eight lengths running 10f....... and for picking just one race, well, i did pick SS\'s kentucky derby, and SSF\'s only 10f race. i didn\'t cherry pick there, i chose the obvious big races. sorry they didn\'t work in your favor, but that was just by chance.
That Derby was not stellar. If Sunday runs on that track and SSF runs on a section of the Spa in the two path at Churchill, I think she would probably win. If she had to run over that mire, she probably wouldn\'t throw a 2. Her Dam hated Churchill as much as her Grand Dad.
CtC
ok fair enough ctc, always respect your opinion. she\'s gotta win by eight lengths though (in TG points)....... and i would like to mirror a message you sent to TGJB about a week ago: it is very telling that he allows these discussions about his figs to be debated on his board, even when some disagree with him; gives me more confidence in his product as a whole.
jimbo66 wrote:
> CtC,
>
> This year\'s Cardinals baseball team would have crushed the 1989
> A\'s team. However, this year\'s Redsox team would have not shot
> against the 89 A\'s.
>
> The Panthers of 2003 would have crushed the Steel Curtain
> Steelers of the 70\'s. But the Pats of 2003 had not shot.
>
> And, Goer could compete today, but Sunday Silence would be
> devoured.
You know Jimbo, you\'re not far from the underlying point I was making. But I\'m pretty sure you don\'t understand it.
CtC
CtC,
I am not taking the bait. Done that too many times on this board already, when somebody on the other side of an argument retorts with \"you\'re not smart enough to see my side\".
Whatever. I am too stupid to realize you are right. Lionheart was a distance horse, Sunday Silence was not. Easy Goer was far superior to Sunday Silence, he just couldn\'t beat him.
No I wasn\'t taking anyone up on their insight. But, I do believe horseraces are won by the fastest horse less than half the time. Matchups determine winners as much as what they\'ve accomplished in the past. Theres strengths and vunerabilities in every equation. SS was a beneficiary of that in the B.C. Classic. (Not at renumerative odds) What I\'m saying is that I believe what TGraph believes, that tracks are generally slower and thoroughbreds faster. I also think todays horses are primarily brilliant types and Sunday Silence would have a lot more trouble staying close to todays burners: Megadeath, GZ, Saint Elmo\'s Fire, for example. I think Easy Goer on the other hand, though perhaps further back than before, would get his accustomed run on the right surface and distance. Unfortunately, he\'d never get to take em on at 12 plus marks.
CtC
Easy Goer lost 3 out of 4. The only win came with a home court advantage at \"12 furlongs\" on a deep tiring track that was playing to outside closers...not that the Phipps connection had anything to do with ensuring that Easy Goer had perfect conditions for his style. LOL
You Easy Goer fans need to get over the fact that he was an excellent horse but not the second coming. SS was the more versatile and thus better horse. He proved it on the track.
Amen. Class Handicapper.